How Satisfied Is Belichick At OLB

[mgteich]

Every year we want to Belichick draft the next potential sack leader, or a premier pass rusher. And every year, Belichick says "not interested". And every year we win 10 games, and win or tie for the division.

All positions except QB, NT and slot receiver could be upgraded. (I don't think OT can be upgraded in Light is being re-signed).

Obviously, Belichick will pick an OLB if the value is there. However, the question is whether Belichick sees a pressing need at OLB. His evaluation of what we have is crucial when he is looking for 2 year projects as upgrades. He may see the need to develop a replacement for Banta-Cain, but see no pressing rush to do so.

Banta-Cain
Ninkovich
Cunningham
Fletcher
Moore

OPTION 1
This is a pressing need that should be addressed by the pick 40, and then again later.

OPTION 2
This is a pressing need that should be addressed br pick 40.

OPTION 3
This is a need that should be addressed before the end of the second, and perhaps again.

OPTION 4
This a need that justifies an addition in the first four rounds.

BOTTOM LINE

A) The defense is a work in progress. We have a lot of youngsters, many of whom we should expect to improve this year and next.

B) We NEED a stud defensive end. Here I think that the inscrutable Belichick agrees. After all, it is Belichick that highly values DL's and drafts them in the first when there is need and opportunity. I recall no year where that need and opportunity were more present. Not only is there a match of need, opportunity and value in the first half of the 1st, the patriots also have ammunition to trade to almost any spot they wish.

C) For Belichick, OLB is luxury pick. It always is. OLB's have to be developed. Belichick always has the option of developing a young vet from another team or a seasoned vet. With the likelihood a shortended camp or no camp, any OLB will likely not be able to absorb the system this year.

D) For me, any early OLB makes sense. I can see the strong likelihood that the player will project to be an improvement. After 40, I'm not so sure. Yes, if we don't pick an OLB by then, we likely will still pick one ro two by the end of the third, or not.

 

[andrewgarrr]

This is a huge need. However, BB should not draft a conversion project in the top 40 picks because of (1) the bust factor and (2) converted positions requires heavy off-season tutelage and a season or two to become a full 3-down player. The cost does not meet the value. A sub-package 3rd down rusher is not worth a top 40 pick. If an OLB conversion project is taken in late 2nd or 3rd round pick, this player will still require about the same amount of coaching without the pressuring bust factor and binding contract. And yes, all 34 OLBs are conversion projects.

I would be fine with taking an OLB at #17 (or higher) if there was a DeMarcus Ware type. There isn't a player of that caliber in this years draft at the position. Miller comes the closest and he's a top 5 pick. There may be a diamond in the rough that can eventually become a player with the same kind of production as Ware, but no one in this draft class (beyond Miller MAYBE) will have the same immediate impact that Ware had.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

What leads people to presume Fletcher is intended to play OLB as anything but emergency depth? He's demonstrated the instincts to play well at ILB on passing downs, his year two leap should be quite positive.

Moore's progress could be better measured with a full year's experience in the system, though he may be handicapped for sitting at home at this time of year.

 

[Gator Mike]

Sometimes, I really do wonder if he's content to go into next season with Cunningham and Eric Moore and say that he saw enough from those two late in the season to feel like they're going to be better this year.

I'd LOVE to find someone who can challenge Ninkovich, though.

 

[cstjohn17]

Banta-Cain
Ninkovich
Cunningham
Fletcher
Moore

My feelings are well documented, the Patriots OLBs are the worst in the NFL. The players above all are average or below, at least Cunningham has some upside.

Even though the unit is poor I don't expect the Patriots to switch their draft philosophy, they will stick to their value based approach and try to add additional depth to every part of the roster. Many of us want the next Ware or Suggs but these types of players are so rare it is like chasing a waterfall.

I expect one of the first three picks to be at OLB but with the real possibility that there will be no free agency before the draft offensive line is even more critical than OLB.

 

[mgteich]

We have three OLB's that Belichick MAY be willing to count on, and three ILB's.

Fletcher and Moore are two more that are developing and are competing for reps as our #7 and #8 linebackers. Yes, it is reasonable to call them emergerncy linebackers. The open question is whether a linebacker taken late would likely be an upgrade. As you say, we will know more after another year with both of them, if Belichick thinks that they are progressing.

I would welcome an addition that Belichick rated as highly as Cunningham or Spikes. It would be worth pushing out Fletcher or Moore for such a player. I guess the reality is that anyone that drafted in the first four rounds would end up making the team, so I would think that Belichick might be leary or drafting an OLB in the 3rd or 4th rounds. After that, we are likely talking about Practice Squad materical.

Obviously, Belichick could always strike it rich late as he did with Banta-Cain.

What leads people to presume Fletcher is intended to play OLB as anything but emergency depth? He's demonstrated the instincts to play well at ILB on passing downs, his year two leap should be quite positive.

Moore's progress could be better measured with a full year's experience in the system, though he may be handicapped for sitting at home at this time of year.

 

[IcyPatriot]

I am not the X's and O's type of person as others here. But every year I see members wanting the OLB or DE edge rusher. Every year I see Belichick utilize pressure up the middle. That's the pressure Bill wants.

He will draft and edge setter before he drafts an edge rusher.

He will draft an OLB who can go out in coverage before he drafts one to sack QB's.

He can more cheaply get a specialized up the middle rusher and use the money in other key areas.

Unless Bill changes his scheme ... this is what I am expecting this draft.

Mayo and Spikes are a bit weak in coverage ... Bill needs a coverage OLB if anything.

 

[Water Boy]

I would be fine with taking an OLB at #17 (or higher) if there was a DeMarcus Ware type.

YouTube - Aldon Smith vs. Colorado ('09)

 

[Sciz]

Satisfied enough to not pick one in the first 3 rounds. Calling it now

 

[tricktak]

It's really tricky as to who the Patriots pick. I think it should be Muhammed Wilkerson but on Friday they worked out Kenrick Ellis who is a physical beast at 6'5 340 lbs. and if he checks out the patriots might pick him in the third and would probably pass on Wilkerson. I could see them possibly going outside linebacker in the first if they like Ellis for the third round, but they won't pick an outside linebacker at 17, they'll either trade down or pick one at 28 if they really like one.

 

[MaineMan]

It's really tricky as to who the Patriots pick. I think it should be Muhammed Wilkerson but on Friday they worked out Kenrick Ellis who is a physical beast at 6'5 340 lbs. and if he checks out the patriots might pick him in the third and would probably pass on Wilkerson. I could see them possibly going outside linebacker in the first if they like Ellis for the third round, but they won't pick an outside linebacker at 17, they'll either trade down or pick one at 28 if they really like one.

WAS, HOU, KC and PIT all probably need (or feel they need) a big honkin' NT. I With Phil Taylor possibly being the only other premier prospect, I don't see Ellis falling even as far as #60 anymore.

 

[WhiZa]

BB hasn't cared to draft a stud OLB since he's been here. And why should he? Most of the OLB coming out of college didn't even play OLB. That's a huge risk to take on a 1st round pick for someone who may not be able to make the leap. Take the safer pick at DE or CB. Both positions can make up for a weaker OLB.

That said, BB is not afraid to draft OLB project in the later rounds.

 

[Fencer]

no pressing rush

That's the difficulty in a nutshell.

Seriously, upgrading the DL to a point that more blockers are occupied would help the rush on standard downs. I phrase it that way because I'm not sure that the hypothetical stud DE would have any effect or indeed even be on the field in sub packages.

On the other hand, it's not as if our run defense in sub packages was great, so maybe he would be ...

 

[Brady2Welker]

I'd be shocked if we pick a "premier" pass rusher this draft. I expect us to get a DE and trade back to middle of the second round and maybe the future and draft someone like Allen Bailey. It's not what I'd want in an ideal world, its just a gut feel.

 

[Defsoul]

While I'd like the Patriots to draft a talented pass rusher early (Kerrigan's my favorite), I don't see them spending a pick on a pass rusher with their first three picks. Right now my money is on Jabaal Sheard in the second round.

 

[mgteich]

Are you suggesting that Sheard will there at 60?

While I'd like the Patriots to draft a talented pass rusher early (Kerrigan's my favorite), I don't see them spending a pick on a pass rusher with their first three picks. Right now my money is on Jabaal Sheard in the second round.

 

[MaineMan]

Are you suggesting that Sheard will there at 60?

Yeah, I'm beginning to get the feeling that, after the first 10-12 picks in the 2nd, the best (approximate) "BB type" OLB prospect left on the board might end up being Acho, with Miller, Kerrigan, Houston, Smith, Reed and Sheard all gone.

 

[sbpatfan]

I feel like pass rush is sometimes an over exaggerated problem. Very few teams seem to consider their pass rush "fine" yet it seems like almost every team needs to improve it. Plus, the general consensus around the league seems to be that you draft this one rookie (OLB or DE) to answer that problem. A good pass rush is a team effort. I would like to see a talented pass rusher added, but perhaps getting better defensive lineman along with the young secondaries improvement would benefit the pass rush more than a college kid who hasn't played in the 3-4 before. I'd invest the picks elsewhere and pickup a situational rusher that could possibly transform his way into a 3-4 OLB. Possibly Chris Carter in the 3rd.

 

[Patriot Missile]

Satisfied enough to not pick one in the first 3 rounds. Calling it now

I'd love to see you proven wrong on this prediction.. but in the back of our minds, everyone is silently agreeing with you.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I'd love to see you proven wrong on this prediction.. but in the back of our minds, everyone is silently agreeing with you.

That depends on where BB plans to use Bailey if he gets him. I find it telling, now that BB has put so much time in with him, that NFL Draft Scout describes him as one of the more versatile players entering the draft, but not one scouts knew how to place in the NFL. I was unimpressed by him on my TV this season, but BB had the time to check the line call and assignments with the kid watching film together, and if anyone knows how to use a guy's strengths to help the team ...

A note that popped up after Miami's Pro Day: Bailey weighed in at 285 for the Combine and put up pretty good numbers, he was 275 for the Pro Day ... heading towards McGinest weight (and after a meeting with Belichick), which makes you wonder what he might produce at 260-265 in Vrabel weight range?