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Reading over the Sebastian Vollmer debate, a question came to me: is media perception of a draft pick as good or bad "value" predictive of anything? In other words, is a player who was called a "steal" more or less likely to succeed than a player who was a "reach"? Do major "steals" tend to be players who fell for good reason, or do "reaches" indicate holes in scouting -- or a player the team feels especially confident in?
I took archived draft rankings from TheHuddleReport and categorized all the Pats' 2003-2008 picks very roughly as:
Steal+ (a major bargain compared to pre-draft expectations)
Steal (a bargain)
FairValue (expected range)
Reach (poor value)
Reach+ (really poor value)
The results are a bit muddled, but it's clear that the Pats "reach" way more than they "steal" -- no surprise there. The second thing that strikes me is that the list of Reach+ players, while wildly uneven, features a high concentration of Pro Bowlers. See what you think.
Steal+
O'Callaghan, Ryan
Banta-Cain, Tully
Sam, PK
Steal
Jackson, Chad
Kingsbury, Kliff
Wilfork, Vince
FairValue
Hilliard, Corey
Andrews, Willie
Cassel, Matt
Claridge, Ryan
Cobbs, Cedric
Elgin, Mike
Kaczur, Nick
Kelley, Ethan
Koppen, Dan
Maroney, Laurence
Mincey, Jeremy
Morton, Christian
Nead, Spencer
Sanders, James
Smith, LeKevin
Stokes, Andy
Thomas, David
Watson, Ben
Reach
Mayo, Jerod
Brown, Kareem
Crable, Shawn
Hairston, Justise
Hill, Marquise
Hobbs, Ellis
Johnson, Bethel
Klecko, Dan
Lua, Oscar
Meriweather, Brandon
Reid, Dexter
Richardson, Mike
Ruud, Bo
Stevenson, Dan
Warren, Ty
Wheatley, Terrence
Wilhite, Jonathan
Reach+
O'Connell, Kevin
Gostkowski, Stephen
Mankins, Logan
Mills, Garrett
Oldenburg, Clint
Rogers, Justin
Samuel, Asante
Scott, Guss
Slater, Matthew
Wilson, Eugene
I took archived draft rankings from TheHuddleReport and categorized all the Pats' 2003-2008 picks very roughly as:
Steal+ (a major bargain compared to pre-draft expectations)
Steal (a bargain)
FairValue (expected range)
Reach (poor value)
Reach+ (really poor value)
The results are a bit muddled, but it's clear that the Pats "reach" way more than they "steal" -- no surprise there. The second thing that strikes me is that the list of Reach+ players, while wildly uneven, features a high concentration of Pro Bowlers. See what you think.
Steal+
O'Callaghan, Ryan
Banta-Cain, Tully
Sam, PK
Steal
Jackson, Chad
Kingsbury, Kliff
Wilfork, Vince
FairValue
Hilliard, Corey
Andrews, Willie
Cassel, Matt
Claridge, Ryan
Cobbs, Cedric
Elgin, Mike
Kaczur, Nick
Kelley, Ethan
Koppen, Dan
Maroney, Laurence
Mincey, Jeremy
Morton, Christian
Nead, Spencer
Sanders, James
Smith, LeKevin
Stokes, Andy
Thomas, David
Watson, Ben
Reach
Mayo, Jerod
Brown, Kareem
Crable, Shawn
Hairston, Justise
Hill, Marquise
Hobbs, Ellis
Johnson, Bethel
Klecko, Dan
Lua, Oscar
Meriweather, Brandon
Reid, Dexter
Richardson, Mike
Ruud, Bo
Stevenson, Dan
Warren, Ty
Wheatley, Terrence
Wilhite, Jonathan
Reach+
O'Connell, Kevin
Gostkowski, Stephen
Mankins, Logan
Mills, Garrett
Oldenburg, Clint
Rogers, Justin
Samuel, Asante
Scott, Guss
Slater, Matthew
Wilson, Eugene
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