How do draft "value" grades play out?

[patchick]

Reading over the Sebastian Vollmer debate, a question came to me: is media perception of a draft pick as good or bad "value" predictive of anything? In other words, is a player who was called a "steal" more or less likely to succeed than a player who was a "reach"? Do major "steals" tend to be players who fell for good reason, or do "reaches" indicate holes in scouting -- or a player the team feels especially confident in?

I took archived draft rankings from TheHuddleReport and categorized all the Pats' 2003-2008 picks very roughly as:
Steal+ (a major bargain compared to pre-draft expectations)
Steal (a bargain)
FairValue (expected range)
Reach (poor value)
Reach+ (really poor value)

The results are a bit muddled, but it's clear that the Pats "reach" way more than they "steal" -- no surprise there. The second thing that strikes me is that the list of Reach+ players, while wildly uneven, features a high concentration of Pro Bowlers. See what you think.

Steal+
O'Callaghan, Ryan
Banta-Cain, Tully
Sam, PK

Steal
Jackson, Chad
Kingsbury, Kliff
Wilfork, Vince

FairValue
Hilliard, Corey
Andrews, Willie
Cassel, Matt
Claridge, Ryan
Cobbs, Cedric
Elgin, Mike
Kaczur, Nick
Kelley, Ethan
Koppen, Dan
Maroney, Laurence
Mincey, Jeremy
Morton, Christian
Nead, Spencer
Sanders, James
Smith, LeKevin
Stokes, Andy
Thomas, David
Watson, Ben

Reach
Mayo, Jerod
Brown, Kareem
Crable, Shawn
Hairston, Justise
Hill, Marquise
Hobbs, Ellis
Johnson, Bethel
Klecko, Dan
Lua, Oscar
Meriweather, Brandon
Reid, Dexter
Richardson, Mike
Ruud, Bo
Stevenson, Dan
Warren, Ty
Wheatley, Terrence
Wilhite, Jonathan

Reach+
O'Connell, Kevin
Gostkowski, Stephen
Mankins, Logan
Mills, Garrett
Oldenburg, Clint
Rogers, Justin
Samuel, Asante
Scott, Guss
Slater, Matthew
Wilson, Eugene

 

[WhiZa]

This is good analysis. The only thing I'm going to say is when the media grades someone low, and then the Pats draft that player they usually do a 180, and say the player is worth the high pick. Somewhat comical on draft day.

 

[Pat_the_Patriot]

I've noted that, too. We (a bunch of us that get together for the draft every year.... various teams represented) all get a kick out of it. Happens everywhere, but nothing is funnier (on draft day) than watching Mel backpedal after the Pats jump up and grab someone.

 

[patchick]

This is good analysis. The only thing I'm going to say is when the media grades someone low, and then the Pats draft that player they usually do a 180, and say the player is worth the high pick. Somewhat comical on draft day.

So true -- subjective draft "graders" have learned not to embarrass themselves by giving the Pats too low a grade. TheHuddleReport, though, does its draft grades as a pure calculation based on pre-draft ranking vs. actual draft slot. (No points for filling needs, trading cannily, etc.) As a result, their long-term grade average rates the Patriots as the single worst drafting team in the entire NFL. The Colts, Chargers and Titans are also near the bottom.

On the flip side, I was amazed how much analysts fawned over the Bengals this year for getting great "bargains" on player after player who slid due to character concerns. That's a case where they really should have taken the franchise's draft history into account more.

 

[unoriginal]

I'm not sure I'd call Kilff Klingsbury a steal; he's the only Mike Leach QB to be drafted besides Tim Couch. I think he went right where he was projected.

EDIT: Forgot Josh Heupel was drafted in the 6th round too.

 

[patchick]

I'm not sure I'd call Kilff Klingsbury a steal; he's the only Mike Leach QB to be drafted besides Tim Couch. I think he went right where he was projected.

It's possible that he did, by other rankings. I used Huddle Report's rankings simply because their archives are in a convenient format for the purpose. They rated Kliff a full round above where he was taken, making him a marginal steal.

BTW, I recently came across a 2003 post-draft grading which shows how little we know the morning after. They give the Pats a well-deserved A+, which they deserved. But check out which name doesn't even come up, as they applaud picks like Klingsbury and Klecko:

Grade given on 6/8/08: A+
Good Moves: DT Ty Warren could have been drafted with the 19th pick instead of the 13th, but he is still a good player. 2nd rounder CB Eugene Wilson should compete against Otis Smith for the starting job. DT Dan Klecko was a good fourth round pick. The Patriots had an excellent sixth round, picking C Dave Koppen and QB Kliff Kingsbury. They continued in the seventh round with DE Tully Banta-Cain. The Patriots also picked up an extra first and second round pick in the 2004 draft.

 

[patchick]

BTW, for future look-back-and-laugh purposes, here are this year's rookies:

Fair Value
Darryl Richard
Julian Edelman
Darius Butler
Myron Pryor
Jake Ingram
Tyrone McKenzie
Patrick Chung
Ron Brace
George Bussey

Reach+
Brandon Tate
Sebastian Vollmer
Rich Ohrnberger

 

[WaterfallJumper]

I thought Butler was considered a slight steal? Most publications had him rated as a solid 1st rounder.

The way the organization has gushed over Ohrnberger, I have to think he has a chance to be a fixture on the OL for a decade. I was nonplussed by the pick, initially, but he appears to be rock-solid. We'll see how he does in action. And let's not forget that Tate was the best WR on his team prior to his knee injury. If not for the ACL and the failed drug test, he's likely a first-round prospect. Vollmer, as well, has intriguing upside. Those three may turn out to be among the better players at their position from this draft. Wouldn't that be something?

 

[patchick]

I thought Butler was considered a slight steal? Most publications had him rated as a solid 1st rounder.

Yep, the rankings I referenced happened to have him a little lower than most, so he just missed qualifying as a steal. Definitely the one pick all the pundits praised this year -- for better or worse.

 

[captain stone]

OK, I'll play...

Steal+
O'Callaghan, Ryan - Reach; he's a poor fit for what this offense asks of its OLmen. I would've drafted DE (for OLB) Mark Anderson or SS Dawan Landry.
Banta-Cain, Tully
Sam, PK - FV, at best.

Steal
Jackson, Chad
Kingsbury, Kliff - FV, at best.
Wilfork, Vince - Steal +

FairValue
Hilliard, Corey - Reach; I would've drafted TE Ben Patrick.
Andrews, Willie
Cassel, Matt
Claridge, Ryan
Cobbs, Cedric - Reach +; Michael Turner was still avail. Just awful.
Elgin, Mike - Reach +; he carried an Undraftable, low-priority FA grade. He wasn't even the best avail. OLman on his own team. I would've drafted UMaine DT/DE Mike DeVito.
Kaczur, Nick
Kelley, Ethan
Koppen, Dan
Maroney, Laurence
Mincey, Jeremy - Reach; he's strictly an undersized 4-3 DE. I would've drafted FS Antoine Bethea.
Morton, Christian - Reach; I was looking at a couple of others at that time, incl. TE/LT Jason Peters.
Nead, Spencer - Reach; I would've drafted RB/FB Cecil Sapp.
Sanders, James
Smith, LeKevin - Agreed, though I would've drafted DT/DE Rodrique Wright instead.
Stokes, Andy - Reach; I would've tried to coach-up Brandon Browner.
Thomas, David
Watson, Ben - Reach; the Bumbler wasn't even the best TE avail. I wanted LB Karlos Dansby.

Reach
Mayo, Jerod - FV, when need is taken into account.
Brown, Kareem - Reach +; slow + unmotivated = bad combination. I would've drafted CB Tarell Brown.
Crable, Shawn
Hairston, Justise
Hill, Marquise
Hobbs, Ellis
Johnson, Bethel - Reach +; I actually would've drafted Kelley Washington.
Klecko, Dan - Reach +; I would've drafted RT Tony Pashos or FS Terrence Holt.
Lua, Oscar - Reach +; Brandon Siler was still avail. Awful, again.
Meriweather, Brandon
Reid, Dexter - Reach +; Mewelde Moore, among others, was still avail.
Richardson, Mike - Reach +; DBs Michael Johnson, Courtney Brown & Chinedum Ndukwe were still avail.
Ruud, Bo - Reach +; I would've drafted C Steven Justice or S Josh Barrett. Absolutely awful.
Stevenson, Dan
Warren, Ty
Wheatley, Terrence
Wilhite, Jonathan

Reach+
O'Connell, Kevin
Gostkowski, Stephen - I'm feeling generous, so I'll give this only a Reach.
Mankins, Logan - Reach/FV.
Mills, Garrett
Oldenburg, Clint
Rogers, Justin
Samuel, Asante - Reach/FV.
Scott, Guss
Slater, Matthew
Wilson, Eugene - Reach/FV.

 

[captain stone]

BTW, for future look-back-and-laugh purposes, here are this year's rookies:

Fair Value
Darryl Richard - Reach; there were several better DL prospects still avail.
Julian Edelman - Reach; I would've drafted RB Rashad Jennings or WR Kevin Ogletree.
Darius Butler - Steal +; Bill's best value pick since Wilfork.
Myron Pryor - Reach +; he doesn't fit this defense, at all. And Brace was drafted the day before.
Jake Ingram
Tyrone McKenzie
Patrick Chung - slight Reach; I would've taken him at #47, which I would not have traded at the cost of my 4th & 6th.
Ron Brace - Reach, only because I wanted Connor Barwin instead.
George Bussey - Reach +; Shortburger was taken just the round before. I would've drafted DB Coye Francies.

Reach+
Brandon Tate
Sebastian Vollmer
Rich Ohrnberger

No argument from me re: your Reach +s; I'm not feeling very generous, so far, towards this year's draft.

 

[patchick]

OK, I'll play...

Cap'n, I wasn't assessing the picks. I was just reporting on the distance between THR's pre-draft ranking and actual draft position.

 

[AzPatsFan]

Isn't it amazing.

All your alternatives that you would have drafted instead, have ALL made NFL rosters. Many have become stars. You must be either a scouting genius; or a very forgetful Monday Morning QB...

 

[patchick]

Isn't it amazing.

All your alternatives that you would have drafted instead, have ALL made NFL rosters. Many have become stars. You must be either a scouting genius; or a very forgetful Monday Morning QB...

Indeed! And fancy that he considered Logan Mankins a first-round value at the time.

In a way, Cap'ns memory draft is the perfect illustration of why the full breakdown of how players were actually ranked at the time is useful. Take a statement like:

"Morton, Christian - Reach; I was looking at a couple of others at that time, incl. TE/LT Jason Peters."

In fact, Morton was considered a solid value at the time by every ranking (and in is still in the league 5 years later, a rarity among 7th rounders). Yet you recall him as a "reach" because one UDFA you remember kind of thinking about became a good player. (Don't tell me; Wes Welker and Randall Gay were your other options, right? ) You can't reconstruct draft value from memory, because by definition we tend to only remember the memorable.

 

[captain stone]

Isn't it amazing.

All your alternatives that you would have drafted instead, have ALL made NFL rosters. Many have become stars. You must be either a scouting genius; or a very forgetful Monday Morning QB...

It's neither, but it's also a little more close to the former than the latter.

 

[captain stone]

Indeed! And fancy that he considered Logan Mankins a first-round value at the time.
You gave Mankins a Reach+, which I ass-umed to mean an overdraft by perhaps as much as a round-and-a-half; I gave him a Reach/Fair value, because at the time I considered him a mid/late 2nd rounder. I actually hoped that LT Khalif Barnes would be the choice at 32.

In a way, Cap'ns memory draft is the perfect illustration of why the full breakdown of how players were actually ranked at the time is useful. Take a statement like:

"Morton, Christian - Reach; I was looking at a couple of others at that time, incl. TE/LT Jason Peters."

In fact, Morton was considered a solid value at the time by every ranking...
SI.com - 2004 NFL Draft - Christian Morton - Rated as a UDFA
Draft Countdown - 2004 NFL Draft Overall Rankings - #169 overall
Scout.com: 2004 NFL Draft CB Rankings - the 45th best CB.
Morton was not in ESPN/Scouts Inc.'s top 262, nor in The Sporting News' top 250.
Unfortunately, PFW has changed their website, so I can no longer access its archived rankings; and I only have USAToday/NFLDraftScout's top 100. But so far, out of 5 sources, only 1 had Morton rated as a solid 7th-round value.

...(and in is still in the league 5 years later, a rarity among 7th rounders).
Maybe he's been injured the past 2 years, because he hasn't played a game since 2006. That's Patrick Pass territory.

Yet you recall him as a "reach" because one UDFA you remember kind of thinking about became a good player. (Don't tell me; Wes Welker and Randall Gay were your other options, right? )
Wrong; my other options besides Jason Peters were DE/OLB Isaac Hilton, DT/DEs Tommy Kelly & DeMarco McNeill, WR Justin Jenkins, SS Rashad Washington, CBs Jabari Greer & Randy Jordan, FB Lousaka Polite, C/G Scott Wells; and for a little local flavor, OLB Uyi Osunde.

You can't reconstruct draft value from memory, because by definition we tend to only remember the memorable.

But you can reconstruct draft value from notes taken, and lists copied, from 5 years ago.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

It's neither, but it's also a little more close to the former than the latter.

With all due respect, sir, if (A) you know what you're doing, and (B) you know better than Belichick, why are you posting here, and not working for the Patriots?

 

[jeffbiologist]

I think the major piece of the puzzle is always missing when grading out a draft years later.....BB's coaching. We can say this player was a steal or a whatever.....but the truth is about 90% of the players in the draft could be turned into more useful players by our coach vs. the coach that got the player. Its a combination of skill, intelligence, determination and opportunity....without any being more important. "Value", as defined by the TV pundits, has basically no place in patriot camp other than cap space. Avoiding 1st round picks levels even that playing field.

 

[DaBruinz]

OK, I'll play...

Instead of posting your junk, why don't you actually READ what Patchick posted. This wasn't her rating system. This was a compilation of the ratings by the Huddle Report.

BTW, What has Cecil Sapp done? Nothing.

Coye Francies? Why draft ANOTHER DB when that area is stacked already?

Mark Anderson? You bag on BB about Mincey, yet Anderson is strictly a 4-3 DE. Heck, he's not even earned a starting role yet. In fact, his sack totals have dropped each year from his rookie year..

BTW, unless you can produce your posts where you claim you'd have taken those players at the time, You nothing but a wannabe MMQB.

 

[DaBruinz]

Originally Posted by patchick
Indeed! And fancy that he considered Logan Mankins a first-round value at the time.
You gave Mankins a Reach+, which I ass-umed to mean an overdraft by perhaps as much as a round-and-a-half; I gave him a Reach/Fair value, because at the time I considered him a mid/late 2nd rounder. I actually hoped that LT Khalif Barnes would be the choice at 32.

Just more proof that you cannot read, sir. This is NOT Patchick's rankings. These were a compilation of The Huddle Report rankings.

In a way, Cap'ns memory draft is the perfect illustration of why the full breakdown of how players were actually ranked at the time is useful. Take a statement like:

"Morton, Christian - Reach; I was looking at a couple of others at that time, incl. TE/LT Jason Peters."

In fact, Morton was considered a solid value at the time by every ranking...
SI.com - 2004 NFL Draft - Christian Morton - Rated as a UDFA
Draft Countdown - 2004 NFL Draft Overall Rankings - #169 overall
Scout.com: 2004 NFL Draft CB Rankings - the 45th best CB.
Morton was not in ESPN/Scouts Inc.'s top 262, nor in The Sporting News' top 250.
Unfortunately, PFW has changed their website, so I can no longer access its archived rankings; and I only have USAToday/NFLDraftScout's top 100. But so far, out of 5 sources, only 1 had Morton rated as a solid 7th-round value.

NFLDraftScout.com had Morton rated as a 6-7 round pick.

...(and in is still in the league 5 years later, a rarity among 7th rounders).
Maybe he's been injured the past 2 years, because he hasn't played a game since 2006. That's Patrick Pass territory.

He stuck around for 4 years.. doesn't that tell you something?

Yet you recall him as a "reach" because one UDFA you remember kind of thinking about became a good player. (Don't tell me; Wes Welker and Randall Gay were your other options, right? )
Wrong; my other options besides Jason Peters were DE/OLB Isaac Hilton, DT/DEs Tommy Kelly & DeMarco McNeill, WR Justin Jenkins, SS Rashad Washington, CBs Jabari Greer & Randy Jordan, FB Lousaka Polite, C/G Scott Wells; and for a little local flavor, OLB Uyi Osunde.

I am sure that guys like Kelly, Greer and Polite were on a lot of people's lists. Especially since Kelly had a 3rd round rating while Greer and Polite had 4-5 ratings.

You can't reconstruct draft value from memory, because by definition we tend to only remember the memorable.

But you can reconstruct draft value from notes taken, and lists copied, from 5 years ago.

The big thing that you fail to comprehend is that the ratings agencies like Scouts Inc don't mean anything to the Patriots. They have their own rating scale and do their own scouting. You also have never interviewed a single one of these players so you don't know if BB would be able to work with them. Taking into consideration those two key things, your comments mean nothing.