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How do draft "value" grades play out?

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by patchick, Jun 15, 2009.

  1. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Reading over the Sebastian Vollmer debate, a question came to me: is media perception of a draft pick as good or bad "value" predictive of anything? In other words, is a player who was called a "steal" more or less likely to succeed than a player who was a "reach"? Do major "steals" tend to be players who fell for good reason, or do "reaches" indicate holes in scouting -- or a player the team feels especially confident in?

    I took archived draft rankings from TheHuddleReport and categorized all the Pats' 2003-2008 picks very roughly as:
    Steal+ (a major bargain compared to pre-draft expectations)
    Steal (a bargain)
    FairValue (expected range)
    Reach (poor value)
    Reach+ (really poor value)

    The results are a bit muddled, but it's clear that the Pats "reach" way more than they "steal" -- no surprise there. The second thing that strikes me is that the list of Reach+ players, while wildly uneven, features a high concentration of Pro Bowlers. See what you think.

    Steal+
    O'Callaghan, Ryan
    Banta-Cain, Tully
    Sam, PK

    Steal
    Jackson, Chad
    Kingsbury, Kliff
    Wilfork, Vince

    FairValue
    Hilliard, Corey
    Andrews, Willie
    Cassel, Matt
    Claridge, Ryan
    Cobbs, Cedric
    Elgin, Mike
    Kaczur, Nick
    Kelley, Ethan
    Koppen, Dan
    Maroney, Laurence
    Mincey, Jeremy
    Morton, Christian
    Nead, Spencer
    Sanders, James
    Smith, LeKevin
    Stokes, Andy
    Thomas, David
    Watson, Ben

    Reach
    Mayo, Jerod
    Brown, Kareem
    Crable, Shawn
    Hairston, Justise
    Hill, Marquise
    Hobbs, Ellis
    Johnson, Bethel
    Klecko, Dan
    Lua, Oscar
    Meriweather, Brandon
    Reid, Dexter
    Richardson, Mike
    Ruud, Bo
    Stevenson, Dan
    Warren, Ty
    Wheatley, Terrence
    Wilhite, Jonathan

    Reach+
    O'Connell, Kevin
    Gostkowski, Stephen
    Mankins, Logan
    Mills, Garrett
    Oldenburg, Clint
    Rogers, Justin
    Samuel, Asante
    Scott, Guss
    Slater, Matthew
    Wilson, Eugene
    Last edited: Jun 16, 2009
  2. WhiZa

    WhiZa Rookie

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    This is good analysis. The only thing I'm going to say is when the media grades someone low, and then the Pats draft that player they usually do a 180, and say the player is worth the high pick. Somewhat comical on draft day.
  3. Pat_the_Patriot

    Pat_the_Patriot Rookie

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    I've noted that, too. We (a bunch of us that get together for the draft every year.... various teams represented) all get a kick out of it. Happens everywhere, but nothing is funnier (on draft day) than watching Mel backpedal after the Pats jump up and grab someone.
  4. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    So true -- subjective draft "graders" have learned not to embarrass themselves by giving the Pats too low a grade. TheHuddleReport, though, does its draft grades as a pure calculation based on pre-draft ranking vs. actual draft slot. (No points for filling needs, trading cannily, etc.) As a result, their long-term grade average rates the Patriots as the single worst drafting team in the entire NFL. The Colts, Chargers and Titans are also near the bottom. :)

    On the flip side, I was amazed how much analysts fawned over the Bengals this year for getting great "bargains" on player after player who slid due to character concerns. That's a case where they really should have taken the franchise's draft history into account more.
  5. unoriginal

    unoriginal Rookie

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    I'm not sure I'd call Kilff Klingsbury a steal; he's the only Mike Leach QB to be drafted besides Tim Couch. I think he went right where he was projected.

    EDIT: Forgot Josh Heupel was drafted in the 6th round too.
    Last edited: Jun 17, 2009
  6. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    It's possible that he did, by other rankings. I used Huddle Report's rankings simply because their archives are in a convenient format for the purpose. They rated Kliff a full round above where he was taken, making him a marginal steal.

    BTW, I recently came across a 2003 post-draft grading which shows how little we know the morning after. They give the Pats a well-deserved A+, which they deserved. But check out which name doesn't even come up, as they applaud picks like Klingsbury and Klecko:

    Grade given on 6/8/08: A+
    Good Moves: DT Ty Warren could have been drafted with the 19th pick instead of the 13th, but he is still a good player. 2nd rounder CB Eugene Wilson should compete against Otis Smith for the starting job. DT Dan Klecko was a good fourth round pick. The Patriots had an excellent sixth round, picking C Dave Koppen and QB Kliff Kingsbury. They continued in the seventh round with DE Tully Banta-Cain. The Patriots also picked up an extra first and second round pick in the 2004 draft.
  7. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    BTW, for future look-back-and-laugh purposes, here are this year's rookies:

    Fair Value
    Darryl Richard
    Julian Edelman
    Darius Butler
    Myron Pryor
    Jake Ingram
    Tyrone McKenzie
    Patrick Chung
    Ron Brace
    George Bussey

    Reach+
    Brandon Tate
    Sebastian Vollmer
    Rich Ohrnberger
  8. reamer

    reamer Rookie

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    I thought Butler was considered a slight steal? Most publications had him rated as a solid 1st rounder.

    The way the organization has gushed over Ohrnberger, I have to think he has a chance to be a fixture on the OL for a decade. I was nonplussed by the pick, initially, but he appears to be rock-solid. We'll see how he does in action. And let's not forget that Tate was the best WR on his team prior to his knee injury. If not for the ACL and the failed drug test, he's likely a first-round prospect. Vollmer, as well, has intriguing upside. Those three may turn out to be among the better players at their position from this draft. Wouldn't that be something? :)
  9. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Yep, the rankings I referenced happened to have him a little lower than most, so he just missed qualifying as a steal. Definitely the one pick all the pundits praised this year -- for better or worse.
  10. captain stone

    captain stone Rookie

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    No Jersey Selected

    OK, I'll play...

  11. captain stone

    captain stone Rookie

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    No Jersey Selected

    No argument from me re: your Reach +s; I'm not feeling very generous, so far, towards this year's draft.
  12. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Cap'n, I wasn't assessing the picks. I was just reporting on the distance between THR's pre-draft ranking and actual draft position.
  13. AzPatsFan

    AzPatsFan Rookie

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    Isn't it amazing.

    All your alternatives that you would have drafted instead, have ALL made NFL rosters. Many have become stars. You must be either a scouting genius; or a very forgetful Monday Morning QB...
  14. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Indeed! And fancy that he considered Logan Mankins a first-round value at the time. :)

    In a way, Cap'ns memory draft is the perfect illustration of why the full breakdown of how players were actually ranked at the time is useful. Take a statement like:

    "Morton, Christian - Reach; I was looking at a couple of others at that time, incl. TE/LT Jason Peters."


    In fact, Morton was considered a solid value at the time by every ranking (and in is still in the league 5 years later, a rarity among 7th rounders). Yet you recall him as a "reach" because one UDFA you remember kind of thinking about became a good player. (Don't tell me; Wes Welker and Randall Gay were your other options, right? ;)) You can't reconstruct draft value from memory, because by definition we tend to only remember the memorable.
  15. captain stone

    captain stone Rookie

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    No Jersey Selected

    It's neither, but it's also a little more close to the former than the latter.
  16. captain stone

    captain stone Rookie

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    No Jersey Selected

    But you can reconstruct draft value from notes taken, and lists copied, from 5 years ago.
    Last edited: Jun 19, 2009
  17. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    With all due respect, sir, if (A) you know what you're doing, and (B) you know better than Belichick, why are you posting here, and not working for the Patriots?
  18. jeffbiologist

    jeffbiologist Rookie

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    I think the major piece of the puzzle is always missing when grading out a draft years later.....BB's coaching. We can say this player was a steal or a whatever.....but the truth is about 90% of the players in the draft could be turned into more useful players by our coach vs. the coach that got the player. Its a combination of skill, intelligence, determination and opportunity....without any being more important. "Value", as defined by the TV pundits, has basically no place in patriot camp other than cap space. Avoiding 1st round picks levels even that playing field.
  19. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #50 Jersey

    Instead of posting your junk, why don't you actually READ what Patchick posted. This wasn't her rating system. This was a compilation of the ratings by the Huddle Report.

    BTW, What has Cecil Sapp done? Nothing.

    Coye Francies? Why draft ANOTHER DB when that area is stacked already?

    Mark Anderson? You bag on BB about Mincey, yet Anderson is strictly a 4-3 DE. Heck, he's not even earned a starting role yet. In fact, his sack totals have dropped each year from his rookie year..

    BTW, unless you can produce your posts where you claim you'd have taken those players at the time, You nothing but a wannabe MMQB.
  20. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #50 Jersey



    Just more proof that you cannot read, sir. This is NOT Patchick's rankings. These were a compilation of The Huddle Report rankings.

    NFLDraftScout.com had Morton rated as a 6-7 round pick.

    He stuck around for 4 years.. doesn't that tell you something?


    I am sure that guys like Kelly, Greer and Polite were on a lot of people's lists. Especially since Kelly had a 3rd round rating while Greer and Polite had 4-5 ratings.

    The big thing that you fail to comprehend is that the ratings agencies like Scouts Inc don't mean anything to the Patriots. They have their own rating scale and do their own scouting. You also have never interviewed a single one of these players so you don't know if BB would be able to work with them. Taking into consideration those two key things, your comments mean nothing.

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