How confident are you now that Mac Jones is “the guy”? 1-10

[patsfan13]

True, but it seemed like Brady just needed some mechanics tweaking.

My concern with Mac is that his mechanics are already pretty darn good! I don’t think you’re going to see as much of a “boost” with Mac, as you did with Brady.

High Ceiling, Low Floor kind of deal.

See Brady's body pic from the Combine. He has the Dad Bod of a 50 yr old. HE did a LOT of strength work in addition to improving his mechanic, which were pretty good. When a QB with low arm strength, and good touch they tend to still Touch. OTOH it is harder for players who grew up throwing fastballs to develop touch.

 

[Ross12]

Is it just me or is it every time I am waiting for Mac to get the ball to pull off a comeback, the defense gives up a 1st down. Sure Mac needs more comebacks but has he failed at a comeback attempt yet? There can only be a comeback if there is a defensive stop setting up the comeback.

Yeah this is something I think a lot of people are collectively missing on... Mac has actually "come back" several times already that I can think of but the team fell short; often it was the defense who let them down and it really had nothing to do with him.

Week 1: Should've had the comeback win against the Dolphins, but Harris fumbled in short field goal territory
Week 4: Lead a potential game-winning drive against Tampa ending in a 56-yard field goal attempt - Folk's kick hits the left upright
Week 5: Patriots were down vs Texans 9-22 with 8 min left in 3rd quarter - Mac brings team back to 22-22 and then leads game-winning drive at end of game to win with a short field goal
Week 6: Mac throws a pick 6 (bad) then immediately throws a 75 yard TD over Trevon Diggs to go up on Dallas 29-26 with 2 minutes left; defense gives up a field goal to Dallas and then they lose in OT
Week 15: Patriots down vs Colts 0-20 at the end of the 3rd quarter - Mac brings them all the way to 17-20 with 2:21 left in the game, then defense gives up game-sealing 67 yard TD to Taylor to end the game
Week 16: Patriots down 14-26 into the 4th vs the Bills - Mac gets them to 21-26 with 7:37 remaining but then defense allows 5+ minute long TD drive to Bills to seal loss
Week 18: Patriots down 10-27 into the 4th vs Dolphins - they get back to 24-27 with 2:53 remaining; defense then can't get a stop and Dolphins drain the rest of the clock away

To me it's clear he can come back but something always goes wrong and it's not typically him. Weeks 15, 16 and 18 are all games where the Patriots are down double-digits in the 4th quarter and end up pulling within 3 to 5 at the end, only to have the defense blow it each time. That's not to say the defense was bad in these games, because in general they did play well, but when they just needed that one last stop to set up the last potential comeback drive, each time they fell short. Don't see any way to fault Mac for that or say he isn't able to come back, or needs to show that he can - I think he's already shown it.

 

[TheRainMaker]

Brady didn’t have a strong arm during his first 3 SB wins. That was one of the knocks on him coming out of college, and why he had to split time with freshman with Drew Henson a freshman with an elite arm his Senior year.

Brady's arm was a lot stronger than people want to remember. He could fire it in there when needed in his 1st year starting. He led the league in TD's in 2002 bringing his team back in many games and took over the game in SB 38 a year later slinging all over the field. He threw that bomb in Pittsburgh to Branch in 2004. His arm strength improved every year and was one of the strongest by their 3rd Super Bowl win.

Look back at some of the older games and you'd be surprised his arm was better than you think.

 

[zipster9]

Need another 1 or 2 yrs to decide....

 

[StrawHatPatriot]

Depends what the guy means

Good enough to always be a playoff level team? Oh, 8.

Good enough to win a ring with? 4

Good enough to win multiple rings? No clue.

Stuff like this obviously changes year to year. You have to worry whether he's reached his ceiling. You have to worry whether he's like Andy Dalton.
Dak Prescott is a QB who still needs everything around him to be perfect.

I like Mac, VERY high floor. But I also worry that he's only gonna end up being the 7th or 8th best QB in the AFC - Allen, Mahomes, Burrow, Herbert, Lamar, DeSean, Carr are better. That's not including Tannehill when his team is fully healthy, and people like Davis Mills that could be good.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Need another 1 or 2 yrs to decide....

After 3 years it is obvious to everyone. Guess now when we do not know for sure.

 

[StrawHatPatriot]

Brady didn’t have a strong arm during his first 3 SB wins. That was one of the knocks on him coming out of college, and why he had to split time with freshman with Drew Henson a freshman with an elite arm his Senior year.

Not really, he split time with Henson because they didn't want Henson to leave and play baseball.

Henson was the better athlete, but he was younger, and was the future after Brady left so they split reps to keep him satisfied.

Most scouting reports trashed Bradys athleticism and build, calling him skinny, slow, etc. Most didn't really bash his arm, though.

Brady's arm was a lot stronger than people want to remember. He could fire it in there when needed in his 1st year starting. He led the league in TD's in 2002 bringing his team back in many games and took over the game in SB 38 a year later slinging all over the field. He threw that bomb in Pittsburgh to Branch in 2004. His arm strength improved every year and was one of the strongest by their 3rd Super Bowl win.

Look back at some of the older games and you'd be surprised his arm was better than you think.

This. Heck, dude, watch his Chargers and Browns games from 2001!

 

[StrawHatPatriot]

Ok.

I think he is going to have a good career. A Philip Rivers type career.

Numerous playoffs. Lots of winning seasons. But also a few meh seasons now and then.

I don’t personally think he will be able to develop his arm enough to be true-elite. Meaning, top-5.

That elite arm strength some guys have gives them an extra second or so to find a WR, because they can rely on being able to zip it in with incredible velocity.

This video gives a good example of what I mean:




The Bills took advantage of Mac’s less than perfect arm velocity during the 2nd meeting. I watched a Patriots reporters analysis video that showed that the Bills essentially dared Mac to throw it outside (toward the boundary) and he wouldn’t.

Some guys (Brees, for example) are able to win a SB despite this, because they have elite anticipation and recognition. Can Mac be that person? Sure. He’s a smart kid. But so few ever develop that elite anticipation so it would be difficult.

Brady was that rare combination of good arm strength AND elite anticipation and recognition, plus a win at all costs attitude. It’s like he was made in Madden and someone just set all the skills to a “99” rating. All of those factors made him the GOAT.

So based on what i’ve seen so far from Mac, i’m going with a career projection of “Good, but not great.”

PS, I also haven’t seen Mac go into beast mode yet. You know when you see it in a QB’s eyes that they’d rather lose a limb than lose the game? So they run over a LB for a first down or sacrifice their body to throw a block for the RB, etc. I’m waiting to see that fire from Mac. That beast attitude.

Great post

Mac Jones, when you look at his passing chart, is just not good in the middle - 10 yards out, inside the numbers. He's pretty bad, numbers wise.

He's great when throwing short, and sideline lobbers, but everything else is wishy washy. 15 yard out routes? Too high.


And people downplay this ****, but it MATTERS. Watch some of Tom Brady's best playoff games - 2018 AFC Title game, against the Chiefs in overtime, 3 straight 3rd and 10s - the zip on the ball was ridiculous, and it BEAT THE COVERAGE.

That matters in the playoffs.

It also matters when coming back in games, if the defense isn't playing prevent.

 

[Pape]

10
Mac is the QB until he isn't.

i had written a bunch of stuff, mostly parroting other peoples points here and there... but i junked it

Effing-a, if he has played half the season with a shoulder injury wthout being a whiny ***** about it? yeah, this is the guy for New England going forward.




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[Mack Herron]

 

[goheels22002]

What I said in a different thread. Mac had a pretty good rookie year & the pats offense got the most out of what they had from their personnel. They had a top 10 offense with no difference maker at WR or TE.

They arguably have everything else offensively. They have a pretty good OL, talented RBs, a #2 WR, a #3 WR & a red zone threat at TE. A #1 option would slot everyone else in to their role IMO.

Here are some young QBs that benefitted from an improvement in their supporting cast after their rookie season:

Joe Burrow 89.8 passer rating to 108.3 - Ja'Marr Chase
Kyler Murray 87.4 to 94.3 - Deandre Hopkins
Josh Allen 85.3 to 107.2 - Stefon Diggs



Mac doesn't have a strong arm. He doesn't have a weak arm. Watch Heinecke, Tua or any of the recent aging QBs such as Big Ben or Rivers for a weak arm. Any slight improvement in arm strength will be what Mac needs to be a franchise QB.

I think fans should be relatively confident. 7 makes sense. I understand the concerns that Mac will never be able to drive a 20+ yard pass with velocity like Herbert, Allen or Tom can but there are successful franchise QBs that are touch passers. Dak is probably the best comparison for his game right now. They both throw with anticipation, are accurate & have underrated mobility (Dak was more of a runner before injury).

Regardless how much Mac improves the pats have to acquire a #1 WR in the draft or FA if they want him to improve significantly IMO.

For the first time in ages, the Patriots go into an offseason with the starting QB on a rookie contract. When your QB isn't occupying 10%+ of your cap space, you have money to invest in upgrading positions.

You can be confident they will strengthen the receiving corps, go to the draft and free agency for interior linemen on both sides of the ball, and see if James White can come back and be a go-to third down back/receiver. After that, they will need to see what they can do to get younger at LB and DB. Building on this team and around this QB will fun to watch.

 

[Captain Cliche]

14.

That's the number of teams that are going to regret the **** out of passing on Mac.

8...dude needs some muscle tone.
He absorbed a ton of hits in the first third of the season and held his mud. Must have one of those Gumby bodies.
He doesn't have a cannon and can't run like a deer...Woopie!!! He's got all the intangibles.

 

[Pats2000]

BB doesn't really have guys. I'd go with 7. But at anytime he could trade or draft a guy with superior physical characteristics to Mac. I wouldn't be surprised if he took a flyer at some QB this year in the draft. Some Trey Lance type falls to the third round - he will take them.

People think somehow that BB only goes for cerebral smart QBs who know how to play. But that's not really true - we just came off a year of Cam Newton. I don't think he has any immediate plans to move on from Mac - that's why I go with 7. But it's always a possibility that he gets another guy in there to push him.

I think Stidham is gone. There will be a new prospect brought after another year of Mac I would guess.

BB went with Cam because he was the only vet QB available and Stidham is apparently hot garbage. We know what BB looks for in a QB. His notes on it were released to the public

 

[Rob0729]

I am not a huge stats guy. I don't think stats are as indicative of play in the NFL like in other sports. That said, I do think that Jones and Justin Herbert have similar completion percentages and yards per pass. Herbert has a strong arm and Jones doesn't. Yet, they got about the same amount of yards per pass in their rookie year. Kinda shoots a hole in the Jones doesn't have a strong enough arm to be the guy. It isn't an argument ender, but it is a nice little rebuttal.

 

[Mr Snrub]

8 or 9. I think he's shown traits that a rare with rookie QBs. Yes he's not as physically gifted as some, but love his attitude, decision making (for a rookie) and his team mates wax lyrical about him. I think he improves every year under BB and at some point he's going to have a true WR1 (hopefully).

 

[jdlboot14]

Mac's arm isn't the strongest, but that doesn't mean he can't throw the deep ball. One ex-coach (June Jones IIRC) said Mac had the best deep ball - touch & accuracy - coming out of college he's seen in years. We've seen that this year. His deep outs could use more zip - but he should be able to build some arm strength at 23 yrs old. The only other issue has been being a 1/2 second late on crossers or out routes - which is so common for rookies who tend to second guess themselves when trying so hard not to make a mistake. I believe this guy can correct a lot this offseason and come in with the same group next year and improve the passing game 25-30%. I'll bet he's around 4400/30/10 next year.

 

[VectorPrime]

I am not a huge stats guy. I don't think stats are as indicative of play in the NFL like in other sports. That said, I do think that Jones and Justin Herbert have similar completion percentages and yards per pass. Herbert has a strong arm and Jones doesn't. Yet, they got about the same amount of yards per pass in their rookie year. Kinda shoots a hole in the Jones doesn't have a strong enough arm to be the guy. It isn't an argument ender, but it is a nice little rebuttal.

I swear to god if you think Jones and Herbert are the same caliber player after the absolute craziness of that final Chargers game I don’t know what to say.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

When a guy is completing almost 70% of his passes with a solid YPC, you can dismiss many of his incompletions as intentional to avoid a sack or INT. He rarely misses a target if there's a good lane to throw in, whether it's a flare, screen, 10-yd cross, 20-yd out, or 50-yd post. He has fantastic touch on short passes, terrific accuracy on deep throws.

He'll never be one of the top-5 laser throwers like Herbert showed the other night. But how does that matter if he excels at every other type of throw? And there's also a direct correlation with lasers and dropped passes - Mac's passes are very easy to catch.

I think the area he could most improve is pocket movement, learn to move out of trouble, bust through the arm tackles like TB has learned to do. I'd like to see JMD roll him out sometimes and take advantage of his good speed. Also develop a little swagger, be the boss, he's too polite.

 

[Bill Lee]

Yeah this is something I think a lot of people are collectively missing on... Mac has actually "come back" several times already that I can think of but the team fell short; often it was the defense who let them down and it really had nothing to do with him.

Week 1: Should've had the comeback win against the Dolphins, but Harris fumbled in short field goal territory
Week 4: Lead a potential game-winning drive against Tampa ending in a 56-yard field goal attempt - Folk's kick hits the left upright
Week 5: Patriots were down vs Texans 9-22 with 8 min left in 3rd quarter - Mac brings team back to 22-22 and then leads game-winning drive at end of game to win with a short field goal
Week 6: Mac throws a pick 6 (bad) then immediately throws a 75 yard TD over Trevon Diggs to go up on Dallas 29-26 with 2 minutes left; defense gives up a field goal to Dallas and then they lose in OT
Week 15: Patriots down vs Colts 0-20 at the end of the 3rd quarter - Mac brings them all the way to 17-20 with 2:21 left in the game, then defense gives up game-sealing 67 yard TD to Taylor to end the game
Week 16: Patriots down 14-26 into the 4th vs the Bills - Mac gets them to 21-26 with 7:37 remaining but then defense allows 5+ minute long TD drive to Bills to seal loss
Week 18: Patriots down 10-27 into the 4th vs Dolphins - they get back to 24-27 with 2:53 remaining; defense then can't get a stop and Dolphins drain the rest of the clock away

To me it's clear he can come back but something always goes wrong and it's not typically him. Weeks 15, 16 and 18 are all games where the Patriots are down double-digits in the 4th quarter and end up pulling within 3 to 5 at the end, only to have the defense blow it each time. That's not to say the defense was bad in these games, because in general they did play well, but when they just needed that one last stop to set up the last potential comeback drive, each time they fell short. Don't see any way to fault Mac for that or say he isn't able to come back, or needs to show that he can - I think he's already shown it.

Thanks, this is a great rebuttal to the "we have the 2nd best scoring defense" refrain. May be good overall but doesn't feel like they are clutch.

Mac Jones, when you look at his passing chart, is just not good in the middle - 10 yards out, inside the numbers. He's pretty bad, numbers wise.

He doesn't have someone that is both quick and durable that can catch over the middle and take the hit. In short, no true slot receiver. I see a lot of plays where he has time and goes through his progressions and still doesn't find open receivers. Regardless of what was spent this off season, it seems we need to get better receivers. And yes, addition by subtraction (Harry) has to happen.

FWIW, @mikereiss posted to Twitter:

 

[Rob0729]

I swear to god if you think Jones and Herbert are the same caliber player after the absolute craziness of that final Chargers game I don’t know what to say.

Did I say that? I am just saying that they averaged the same amount of yards per pass. You would think that if arm strength meant that much to passing down the field, Herbert would have significantly more yards per pass. I am not talking about quality of the player themselves.