How big does Mike Rodak think the Patriots' roster will be?

[Fencer]

Thanks! Looks like it's not quite as extreme as I thought. It's OK for percentages to be a little high; after all, there will be injuries and the like.

I think I was unfair to Rodak. I'm counting 25 guys on defense, and while I probably had a senility attack and missed one or the other, that's respectably close.

Since nobody else wants to look it up I will.

Bubble watch - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

CB: Dennard 45%; Moore 80%; Allen 45%; Cole 50% Basically, he forecasts 2 of those guys making it. That's surely in addition to Dowling, McCourty, and Arrington -- so 5 CBs?

S: Ihedigbo 65%; Ebner 65%; Brown 35%; Barrett 45% 2 safeties beyond Chung/Wilson/Gregory -- i.e. 5 safeties.

LB: Carpenter 75%; Koutouvides 45%; White 70%; Tarpinian 65% 2 1/2 ILBs beyond Mayo/Spikes/whatever Hightower is, and that's not counting Fletcher. Let's say his total "LB" group is Mayo/Spikes/Hightower/Ninko/2 more guys, not counting the ones he calls "DE".

DE: Scott 75%; Cunningham 35% 1 of those guys plus Fanene plus the 2 rookies. Leaving Andre Carter off the OPENING DAY roster is OK by me.

DL: Warren 55%; Pryor 75%; Forston 20%; Brace 50% 2 of those guys, plus Wilfork/Deaderick/Love -- 5 big heavies total.

OL: Gallery 75%; McDonald 55%; Kopa 20%; Thomas 30% Somewhat under 2 guys, added to Solder/Vollmer/maybe Mankins/Koppen/Connolly/Waters/Cannon. If Wendell is a bubble player too, that makes 9.

TE:

WR: Davis 10%; Stallworth 50%; Ebert 15%

FB/RB: Fiammetta 25%; Addai 80%; Larsen 70% 1 FB plus all those ILBs. Hmm ...


If my math is correct I have a total of 1175%, or about 12 players from that group of 28 making the roster. The eleven with Rodak's best chances of surviving are Moore, Addai, Gallery, Pryor, Scott, Carpenter, Larsen, White, Ihedigbo, Ebner, and Tarpinian, with either Warren or McDonald being the 12th.

 

[mgteich]

Let's consider the defense. Perhaps I have forgotten someone, but Rodak's arithmetic seems close. Of course, many here disagree with his choices/percentages.

TOTAL 25.75
less the possibility that one of the locks isn't on the 53

DEFENSIVE BACKS (10.3)
Locks (6): McCourty, Dowling, Arrington, Chung, Gregory, Wilson
CB: (2.2)
S: (2.1)
Total: 10.3 defensive backs

FRONT SEVEN (15.45)
Locks (10): Wilfork, Love, Deaderick, Fenene, Mayo, Spikes, Hightower, Jones, Ninkovich, Bequette

LB/ST: (2.35)
DE: (1.1)
DL: (2)
Total: 15.45 front seven

Since nobody else wants to look it up I will.

Bubble watch - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

CB: Dennard 45%; Moore 80%; Allen 45%; Cole 50%

S: Ihedigbo 65%; Ebner 65%; Brown 35%; Barrett 45%

LB: Carpenter 75%; Koutouvides 45%; White 70%; Tarpinian 65%

DE: Scott 75%; Cunningham 35%

DL: Warren 55%; Pryor 75%; Forston 20%; Brace 50%

OL: Gallery 75%; McDonald 55%; Kopa 20%; Thomas 30%

TE:

WR: Davis 10%; Stallworth 50%; Ebert 15%

FB/RB: Fiammetta 25%; Addai 80%; Larsen 70%


If my math is correct I have a total of 1175%, or about 12 players from that group of 28 making the roster. The eleven with Rodak's best chances of surviving are Moore, Addai, Gallery, Pryor, Scott, Carpenter, Larsen, White, Ihedigbo, Ebner, and Tarpinian, with either Warren or McDonald being the 12th.

 

[mgteich]

Let's try the offense

OFFENSE (25.55)

"LOCKS" really NOT LISTED AS ON THE BUBBLE (22)
QB (3)
TE (3)
WR (6) Welker, Gaffney, Lloyd, Branch, Edelman, Slater
RB (3) Ridley, Vereen, Woodhead
OL (7) Solder, Mankins, Connolly, Waters, Vollmer, Cannon, Koppen/Wendell (50/50)

PER RODAK (4.3)
RB: (1.75)
OL: (1.8)
WR (.75)

TOTAL (26.30)
to be reduced by 1.30 to account for the possibility that one of the locks might not make the team or that that total for Koppen and Wendell should be less than 1.00. For example, one might reduce Branch to 50%, Edelman to 50%, Koppen to 35% and Wendell to 35% to make the arithmetic work.

Since nobody else wants to look it up I will.

Bubble watch - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

CB: Dennard 45%; Moore 80%; Allen 45%; Cole 50%

S: Ihedigbo 65%; Ebner 65%; Brown 35%; Barrett 45%

LB: Carpenter 75%; Koutouvides 45%; White 70%; Tarpinian 65%

DE: Scott 75%; Cunningham 35%

DL: Warren 55%; Pryor 75%; Forston 20%; Brace 50%

OL: Gallery 75%; McDonald 55%; Kopa 20%; Thomas 30%

TE:

WR: Davis 10%; Stallworth 50%; Ebert 15%

FB/RB: Fiammetta 25%; Addai 80%; Larsen 70%


If my math is correct I have a total of 1175%, or about 12 players from that group of 28 making the roster. The eleven with Rodak's best chances of surviving are Moore, Addai, Gallery, Pryor, Scott, Carpenter, Larsen, White, Ihedigbo, Ebner, and Tarpinian, with either Warren or McDonald being the 12th.

 

[Kontradiction]

Let's consider the defense. Perhaps I have forgotten someone, but Rodak's arithmetic seems close. Of course, many here disagree with his choices/percentages.

TOTAL 25.75
less the possibility that one of the locks isn't on the 53

DEFENSIVE BACKS (10.3)
Locks (6): McCourty, Darling, Arrington, Chung, Gregory, Wilson
CB: (2.2)
S: (2.1)
Total: 10.3 defensive backs

FRONT SEVEN (15.45)
Locks (10): Wilfork, Love, Deaderick, Fenene, Mayo, Spikes, Hightower, Jones, Ninkovich, Bequette

LB/ST: (2.35)
DE: (1.1)
DL: (2)
Total: 15.45 front seven

I'm surprised it took you this long to reply. This thread would seem to be right up your alley.

 

[mgteich]

Sometimes I'm away from the computer for a few hours.

I'm surprised it took you this long to reply. This thread would seem to be right up your alley.

 

[Fencer]

DEFENSIVE BACKS (10.3)
Locks (6): McCourty, Darling, Arrington, Chung, Gregory, Wilson

Someone has a binkie!!!

 

[Fencer]

to be reduced by 1.30 to account for the possibility that one of the locks might not make the team or that that total for Koppen and Wendell should be less than 1.00.

To the extent that the sum isn't 53, very reasonable adjustments include:

• Chance of season-ending training camp injury, which I'm guessing was not included in Rodak's probabilities.
• Chance of a longer-shot guy taking a slot.
• Disagreement about who will or won't be on PUP. (Mainly Mankins?)

 

[treeclimber]

Since nobody else wants to look it up I will.

Bubble watch - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

CB: Dennard 45%; Moore 80%; Allen 45%; Cole 50%

S: Ihedigbo 65%; Ebner 65%; Brown 35%; Barrett 45%

LB: Carpenter 75%; Koutouvides 45%; White 70%; Tarpinian 65%

DE: Scott 75%; Cunningham 35%

DL: Warren 55%; Pryor 75%; Forston 20%; Brace 50%

OL: Gallery 75%; McDonald 55%; Kopa 20%; Thomas 30%

TE:

WR: Davis 10%; Stallworth 50%; Ebert 15%

FB/RB: Fiammetta 25%; Addai 80%; Larsen 70%


If my math is correct I have a total of 1175%, or about 12 players from that group of 28 making the roster. The eleven with Rodak's best chances of surviving are Moore, Addai, Gallery, Pryor, Scott, Carpenter, Larsen, White, Ihedigbo, Ebner, and Tarpinian, with either Warren or McDonald being the 12th.

Not to burst your bubble, but that's not how percentages work. The math you just did there would drive a math teacher insane. Don't take his percentages so literally, it's just his way of expressing his opinion on each players' chances of making the team as opposed to saying something like, "no chance, unlikely, maybe, good, great chance."

People are trying to make sense of his arthimatic when he probably just pulled these numbers out of his ass when writing the article. Unless you think he spent hours creating mathamatically sound percentages for the roster just in case people would actually check him. Which I can 90% guarentee he didn't.

 

[mgteich]

fixed

Someone has a binkie!!!

 

[mgteich]

I agree.


In any case, it certainly is not unreasonable to have a 55 man roster at this point, or even 60 man roster.

To the extent that the sum isn't 53, very reasonable adjustments include:

• Chance of season-ending training camp injury, which I'm guessing was not included in Rodak's probabilities.
• Chance of a longer-shot guy taking a slot.
• Disagreement about who will or won't be on PUP. (Mainly Mankins?)

 

[Fencer]

Not to burst your bubble, but that's not how percentages work. The math you just did there would drive a math teacher insane. Don't take his percentages so literally, it's just his way of expressing his opinion on each players' chances of making the team as opposed to saying something like, "no chance, unlikely, maybe, good, great chance."

People are trying to make sense of his arthimatic when he probably just pulled these numbers out of his ass when writing the article. Unless you think he spent hours creating mathamatically sound percentages for the roster just in case people would actually check him. Which I can 90% guarentee he didn't.

Your last sentence is funny, at least if you meant it for a joke.

As for the rest -- in this case, that IS how probabilities work. Just naively add them up, and you have an expected value for the number of players from the group he writes about sticking on the roster.

I was calling him out for apparently just pulling numbers out of an orifice, without sanity checking whether they add up, but I've now flip-flopped, and am guessing that he actually wasn't completely careless about that.