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- Sep 13, 2004
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I considered 10 top QB's from memory: Brady, Mahomes, Manning, Rodgers, Brees, Favre, Allen, Jackson, Prescott and Russell Wilson. I believe that only Manning was picked in the first.
MVP QUALITY QUARTERBACK
I believe that top 5, MVP type QB's are very rare and could come from anywhere, although the higher you draft the better chance you have to succeed. Since success is rare, I think that it is critical to consider the FLOOR of a top 10 QB pick. A top 10 pick that is judged to have a 50% chance of failing to be a solid top 20 starting QB should cause teams to put a red flag on the player.
HIGH FLOOR
Should I draft a QB that has the highest percentage project floor of a top15 QB? I don't think that probability of any of QB 2-6 being a superstar is very different, although perhaps Penix is lower because of his injury history.
BOTTOM LINE
If whoever is left at 3 is projected to have a much higher percentage of being a superstar, then draft him. If not, just trade down for a QB with high floor, unless of course one QB has a much high floor in which case maybe he is really a #3 pick.
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THE BIG RISK
Trading down for a team who will pick a QB quite possibly will result in 5 QB's being taken in the first 6 picks. We'd probably end up moving up to 8-10 to draft our choice of Penix or Nix. Of course, we would be in the bidding to move up to 4-6 but could lose the fight.
MVP QUALITY QUARTERBACK
I believe that top 5, MVP type QB's are very rare and could come from anywhere, although the higher you draft the better chance you have to succeed. Since success is rare, I think that it is critical to consider the FLOOR of a top 10 QB pick. A top 10 pick that is judged to have a 50% chance of failing to be a solid top 20 starting QB should cause teams to put a red flag on the player.
HIGH FLOOR
Should I draft a QB that has the highest percentage project floor of a top15 QB? I don't think that probability of any of QB 2-6 being a superstar is very different, although perhaps Penix is lower because of his injury history.
BOTTOM LINE
If whoever is left at 3 is projected to have a much higher percentage of being a superstar, then draft him. If not, just trade down for a QB with high floor, unless of course one QB has a much high floor in which case maybe he is really a #3 pick.
==============
THE BIG RISK
Trading down for a team who will pick a QB quite possibly will result in 5 QB's being taken in the first 6 picks. We'd probably end up moving up to 8-10 to draft our choice of Penix or Nix. Of course, we would be in the bidding to move up to 4-6 but could lose the fight.