The fact of the matter is that history has always judged players for picks trades based on the player(s) selected with the picks and the product of the player traded after he is traded. Here are a few of the biggest examples:
1.) What is considered the biggest lopsided trade in NFL history is based soley on that. The Herschel Walker trade is not considered such a lopsided trade because of number of picks that the Cowboys got, but what those picks became when they drafted or traded for to draft. It was because what became a trade basically Herschel Walker and Jake Reed (and a couple of scrubs) for Emmitt Smith, Russell Maryland (well they used a pick from that trade to trade up to get Maryland), Darren Woodson, a few solid players (Dixon Edwards and Alvin Harper), and some scrubs. Walker doing not much for the Vikes also made it lopsided. Also, Woodson, Maryland, and Smith playinng key roles in three Super Bowl seasons also makes it lopsided.
2.) Irving Friar to Miami. Based on pure value, the Pats raped the Dolphins. Fryar was an underperforming, head case who was over 30 that the Pats got a second and third rounder for him. Score New England. Except something happened, Fryar found God and became a top WR for four or five years and the Pats drafted Todd Rucci and Joe Burch with those picks. History looks at that trade as a lopsided trade in Miami's favor when at the time of the trade, most felt the opposite.
3.) People thought Ron Wolf was crazy for swapping first round picks for a boozing back up QB with only one year in the Pros with Atlanta back in 1992. That QB was Brett Favre and the Falcons drafted Tony Smith. This trade helped to make Jerry Glanville the media baffoon that he became.
4.) Ok, it was a pick for pick trade, but the Pats still get slammed for trading away the pick for Jerry Rice where if you look at the trade on the value of the pick positions alone, the Pats got the better end of the trade. The Pats got a first, second, and third for a first and third. But the trade will always be remembered as Jerry Rice for Trevor Matich. But if production of the players picked have no bearing on the value of the trade, the Pats owned the 49ers on this trade.
5.) The 49ers traded a second and fourth round pick for a bust of a QB by the name of Steve Young. Clearly a stupid trade by the 49ers since Young was a huge bust in Tampa, had lost his job to Vinny Testeverde, and not worth that much in compensation. BTW, the Bucs drafted Winston Moss and Bruce Hill. The 49ers gets jobbed again.
6.) Randy Moss was a bad trade for the Pats based purely on value at the time of the trade. He was a disgruntled player who quit on his team and many thought was done that no other team wanted even for a fourth round pick and the Pats gave the Raiders that anyway. Based on pure value alone and not post trade production, it was a brilliant move by Al Davis and mistake by the Patriots.
Do I really need to go on? If the 2011 pick turns into the next Tom Brady or Lawrence Taylor, history will remember this trade as one of the worst trades in NFL history by the Raiders. If that pick becomes the next Ryan Leaf or Vernon Gholston, history will remember it as a horrible trade for the Pats. That is how trades work. Anyone who thinks otherwise, look again at the trades above.