Greg Bedard: Time for Patriots to draft an impact receiver

[Deus Irae]

Eeeeeeexcellent. Move Mallett and try to secure a 2nd or 3rd for him (probably the latter). Pick up a quarterback later on in the draft with the 7th.

If they could get a second (be still my heart) for Mallett, I'd package picks as needed to get:

Cyprien/Elam
Woods
Wheaton

and call that a very good draft, regardless of whether or not they had other picks.

 

[Deus Irae]

I said my wild theory is that the Browns use a second round pick they get for trading Albert to the Dolphins on Mallett, but it may not be so wild.

I didn't think anyone would be desperate enough to gamble a 2nd on Mallett, but WEEI was just reporting that the Patriots are asking for either a 2nd this year or a 1st next year.

I'd certainly be thrilled if either of those came to pass.

 

[Brady2Moss]

If they could get a second (be still my heart) for Mallett, I'd package picks as needed to get:

Cyprien/Elam
Woods
Wheaton

and call that a very good draft, regardless of whether or not they had other picks.

I wouldn't mind Hunter over Wheaton gimme the tall guys :singing:

 

[ForThoseAboutToRock]

Kansas State WR Chris Harper had a 33 on his wonderlic according to rotoworld. Don't really know much about him though.
Anyone know where he is projected to be drafted?

from Bedard via Bob McGinn RE: WR's with high wonderlic:

Greg A. Bedard: According to Bob McGinn: Harper (33), Goodwin and Boyce (23), Woods and Mellette (22).

Da'Rick Rogers got a 25 but nobody thinks that's legit.

Interesting to hear that Rogers' scoring a 25 isn't legit... what the hell does that mean? Did he cheat (seems highly unlikely) or somehow break the test? What point is there in a wonderlic style test if there are scores that aren't legit?

 

[manxman2601]

I said my wild theory is that the Browns use a second round pick they get for trading Albert to the Dolphins on Mallett, but it may not be so wild.

It would be because they'd have to trade for him first to get him from the Chiefs

 

[Sicilian]

from Bedard via Bob McGinn RE: WR's with high wonderlic:


Interesting to hear that Rogers' scoring a 25 isn't legit... what the hell does that mean? Did he cheat (seems highly unlikely) or somehow break the test? What point is there in a wonderlic style test if there are scores that aren't legit?

From what I understand of the Wonderlic, it seems like the kind of test that is a good indicator over a large sample size (so a player's intelligence on average is going to be pretty close to their score), but on any individual basis could skew really far up or down. So my guess is this kid got a bunch of questions he happened to be good at, but people around him know he's not a genius.

 

[Rob0729]

I didn't think anyone would be desperate enough to gamble a 2nd on Mallett, but WEEI was just reporting that the Patriots are asking for either a 2nd this year or a 1st next year.

I'd certainly be thrilled if either of those came to pass.

Considering what retreads like Palmer and Alex Smith netted the teams trading them, a second for Mallett isn't crazy. I am not betting on it, but this draft absolutely sucks for QBs. Mallett would be a sure fire first round pick if he was a draft prospect in this draft rather than the deep QB draft class he was in two years ago.

 

[manxman2601]

the Mallett thing really gaining traction:

Source: The Browns have called again about Ryan Mallett. The Patriots want at least a second-round pick in return.

https://twitter.com/jeffphowe/status/327456807259869185

 

[patfanken]

Curious thing about Bedard's article. While he makes a seemingly compelling case for drafting a WR with their first pick, he starts the piece by giving you an equally compelling stat for us NOT to make that decision.

The fact is that in the past 25 years only ONE WR in 4 has caught at least 50 passes in their first year, and I would bet that number drops precipitously after the 15th pick. At 29 where the Pats are picking, the number would be a lot closer to the 10% figure of the round 2 stats.

The Pats would have to be very lucky to find a WR who would provide even that moderate level of impact (50+ catches) this season. I believe that the Pats believe that the TEAM would be much better served overall by improving the pass rush or secondary with that first pick

BTW- I feel compelled to remind people that the last time there was this much outcry for a WR early, was back in 2001 when EVERYONE in their right mind knew the Pats were hoping David Terrrell would be there at #6, because HE was the consensus #1 WR available and the Pats receiver situation was MUCH MUCH worse that it is now.....and STILL they chose a guy that Ron Borges thought was a joke.....Richard Seymour.

BOTTOM LINE: Bedard might be right in suggesting the Pats draft an impact WR with there first pick. The problem is that there isn't a WR in the first round that is a sure enough bet to BE an impact receiver, especially at #29

 

[patfanken]

the Mallett thing really gaining traction:





https://twitter.com/jeffphowe/status/327456807259869185

Here is the key to that deal happening, and it will happen early. There have also been reports that the Browns are looking to trade out their pick at #6. If they do, they will likely get a 2nd rounder as part of that deal. NOW they will have the currency to make the trade with Pats and the possibility of Mallet to the Browns becomes more realistic.

Its also possible that the Pats might do a deal with Browns for Mallet that includes say a 5th in this year's draft and conditional pick in 2014 that could range from a 4th to a 1st depending on Mallet's productivity. With it most likely that it becomes a 2nd

 

[Rob0729]

Curious thing about Bedard's article. While he makes a seemingly compelling case for drafting a WR with their first pick, he starts the piece by giving you an equally compelling stat for us NOT to make that decision.

The fact is that in the past 25 years only ONE WR in 4 has caught at least 50 passes in their first year, and I would bet that number drops precipitously after the 15th pick. At 29 where the Pats are picking, the number would be a lot closer to the 10% figure of the round 2 stats.

The Pats would have to be very lucky to find a WR who would provide even that moderate level of impact (50+ catches) this season. I believe that the Pats believe that the TEAM would be much better served overall by improving the pass rush or secondary with that first pick

BTW- I feel compelled to remind people that the last time there was this much outcry for a WR early, was back in 2001 when EVERYONE in their right mind knew the Pats were hoping David Terrrell would be there at #6, because HE was the consensus #1 WR available and the Pats receiver situation was MUCH MUCH worse that it is now.....and STILL they chose a guy that Ron Borges thought was a joke.....Richard Seymour.

BOTTOM LINE: Bedard might be right in suggesting the Pats draft an impact WR with there first pick. The problem is that there isn't a WR in the first round that is a sure enough bet to BE an impact receiver, especially at #29

That's the thing. Arguably there isn't a position that is a bigger crap shoot in the first round than WR and even ones that work out usually take a year or two to break out.

I still think contrary to popular belief, d-line may be the Pats' biggest priority in the first round. I think the Pats have enough talent on offense to be a top offense. Maybe not 1 or 2, but in the top 5. I think the defense still needs to be improved in the passing game and, also contrary to popular belief, the Pats need to upgrade the pass rush over the secondary.

 

[50-yard-line]

Curious thing about Bedard's article. While he makes a seemingly compelling case for drafting a WR with their first pick, he starts the piece by giving you an equally compelling stat for us NOT to make that decision.

The fact is that in the past 25 years only ONE WR in 4 has caught at least 50 passes in their first year, and I would bet that number drops precipitously after the 15th pick. At 29 where the Pats are picking, the number would be a lot closer to the 10% figure of the round 2 stats.

The Pats would have to be very lucky to find a WR who would provide even that moderate level of impact (50+ catches) this season. I believe that the Pats believe that the TEAM would be much better served overall by improving the pass rush or secondary with that first pick

BTW- I feel compelled to remind people that the last time there was this much outcry for a WR early, was back in 2001 when EVERYONE in their right mind knew the Pats were hoping David Terrrell would be there at #6, because HE was the consensus #1 WR available and the Pats receiver situation was MUCH MUCH worse that it is now.....and STILL they chose a guy that Ron Borges thought was a joke.....Richard Seymour.

BOTTOM LINE: Bedard might be right in suggesting the Pats draft an impact WR with there first pick. The problem is that there isn't a WR in the first round that is a sure enough bet to BE an impact receiver, especially at #29

I thought exactly the same thing when reading that article - going for a WR in the first gives them less than a 1-in-4 chance of grabbing a guy who could seriously contribute (50+ catches). I'd reduce those odds a lot, since it's pick #29, and reduce it a lot more given the complexities of the Pats' offense.

 

[Rob0729]

Here is the key to that deal happening, and it will happen early. There have also been reports that the Browns are looking to trade out their pick at #6. If they do, they will likely get a 2nd rounder as part of that deal. NOW they will have the currency to make the trade with Pats and the possibility of Mallet to the Browns becomes more realistic.

Its also possible that the Pats might do a deal with Browns for Mallet that includes say a 5th in this year's draft and conditional pick in 2014 that could range from a 4th to a 1st depending on Mallet's productivity. With it most likely that it becomes a 2nd

The Browns are likely to trade Branden Albert to the Dolphins for a second rounder. The Pats are best off waiting until that deal goes down unless the Browns pick up a higher 2nd rounder for trading out of the #6 pick.

 

[Froob]

The Browns are likely to trade Branden Albert to the Dolphins for a second rounder. The Pats are best off waiting until that deal goes down unless the Browns pick up a higher 2nd rounder for trading out of the #6 pick.

Brandon Albert is a chief. Got teams mixed up there bro.

 

[Rob0729]

Brandon Albert is a chief. Got teams mixed up there bro.

You are right. My bad. What am I thinking. Duh!

 

[Sciz]

from Bedard via Bob McGinn RE: WR's with high wonderlic:


Interesting to hear that Rogers' scoring a 25 isn't legit... what the hell does that mean? Did he cheat (seems highly unlikely) or somehow break the test? What point is there in a wonderlic style test if there are scores that aren't legit?

The Wonderlic is meant to be taken without any studying, and players who do study for it can drastically change their scores even though it's not really an indication of being smarter than they used to be. A great example is Prince Amukamara, who went from 14 to 35 in a year. Similarly, Danny Watkins went from 15 to 40 in a year.

I would assume that people think that Rogers studied for it in order to get a score that is not an accurate reflection of his mental abilities.

 

[patfanken]

As for my hopes for the Pats first round pick, I'm hoping for the DL. I'm increasing becoming more enamored we DJones from UCLA 6'4 285, if only for the chance of having a Jones/Jones pairing coming off the edge. I also like Tank Carradine and Margus Hunt (though 29 is probably too high for Hunt) I also can see the Pats going DT/NT here depending on who is available.

If its not the pass rush, it should be CB and there are several who might not only be worth the pick, but might actually be there (Rhodes, Hayden, Trufaunt, etc)

BTW- you can count me among those would take a shot in the 7th round for that British shot putter with the crazy combine stats. He could very well be worth the time to develop down the road.

 

[patfanken]

The Browns are likely to trade Branden Albert to the Dolphins for a second rounder. The Pats are best off waiting until that deal goes down unless the Browns pick up a higher 2nd rounder for trading out of the #6 pick.

That's an oops Rob, your post makes sense except for the small detail that KC owns the rights to Brandon Albert.

 

[Rob0729]

That's an oops Rob, your post makes sense except for the small detail that KC owns the rights to Brandon Albert.

As I said in another thread where I made the same mistake, I confuse all bad midwest teams with current or former ties to Belichick. Does that make me racist?

 

[Froob]

As I said in another thread where I made the same mistake, I confuse all bad midwest teams with current or former ties to Belichick. Does that make me racist?

Probably. Doesn't take much these days