Great article from Mike Reiss detailing the timeline of the fall

[lancerman]

The Harry pick was probably the first tangible mistake. BUT, and this will be unpopular, we heard from many sources that Brady and Gronk pretty much lost faith and buy in when Bill Belichick didn't play Butler in the Eagles Super Bowl. That hot shotted everything because it's when you lost the support of the most important player. Brady leaving and Gronk coming out of retirement to play with Brady as long as he was away from Belichick was a huge signal that some hugely important players were no longer interested in that system

 

[captain stone]

The Harry pick was probably the first tangible mistake. BUT, and this will be unpopular, we heard from many sources that Brady and Gronk pretty much lost faith and buy in when Bill Belichick didn't play Butler in the Eagles Super Bowl. That hot shotted everything because it's when you lost the support of the most important player. Brady leaving and Gronk coming out of retirement to play with Brady as long as he was away from Belichick was a huge signal that some hugely important players were no longer interested in that system

I can absolutely believe this... Bill's draft fails had been happening for awhile already, including that very year's horrible, Horrible 2017 draft - including the off-season moves which led to it - but players don't notice those things as much as they notice what's happening on their own sideline; and how can anyone, players & fans alike, possibly have faith in a HC who had just PROVED that he would rather LOSE his way than win some other way?

 

[n6249c]

I understand what you're saying. We were just making a point that scouts are very important to an organization. That's not saying HCs and other personnel decision makers aren't. However HCs and GMs aren't flying coach Going as in depth as scouts are. They are integral parts of an organization.

One of the big things Bill reportedly did when he came in as HC was to formalize scouting evaluations and specify desired traits that firvwhat the coaches wanted their players to be doing. I wonder if this needs to be updated, if there‘s been drift in the alignment between what coaches want and what scouts are told to look for, or if there’s not enough discipline in sticking to the traits and evaluations.

 

[Real fan 02]

One of the big things Bill reportedly did when he came in as HC was to formalize scouting evaluations and specify desired traits that firvwhat the coaches wanted their players to be doing. I wonder if this needs to be updated, if there‘s been drift in the alignment between what coaches want and what scouts are told to look for, or if there’s not enough discipline in sticking to the traits and evaluations.

You're right. I was listening to Weiss talk and he said early on Bill had more people involved in the roster decisions. I'll say Scott Pioli was such a undervalued guy. He was behind of lot of the Hits with drafting and FA over the year's. The league has been trending this way for years since the Mid 2000s where scoring is prioritized. I hate to keep going back to this, But having TB12 made it so much easier to withstand the WR draft bust over the years. When you had that guy, Bill could then afford to go against scouts recommendations, ect. Bill is a football savant a historical figure of course he knows every inch of football. Whether or not he chooses to accept is a totally different thing. I have this curiosity of wanting to see Bill clean up the mess of this roster he created. However that decision may not be entirely up to him. If we had a QB that is 90% of the problem solved.

 

[Real fan 02]

I can absolutely believe this... Bill's draft fails had been happening for awhile already, including that very year's horrible, Horrible 2017 draft - including the off-season moves which led to it - but players don't notice those things as much as they notice what's happening on their own sideline; and how can anyone, players & fans alike, possibly have faith in a HC who had just PROVED that he would rather LOSE his way than win some other way?

Another thing as well. How many of the players Bill drafted that DID work out see 2nd contracts. Off the top.. Edelman, Hightower, McCourty, I know there has to be others right?.. I can't think of any. As you perfectly stated "his way" the Winning kept all the critics at Bay.. the mad scientist was able to mix& match, draft ST player's and pretty much do what he wanted to do for so long. Has the NFL finally exposed him?

 

[TheRazorsEdge]

One of the big things Bill reportedly did when he came in as HC was to formalize scouting evaluations and specify desired traits that firvwhat the coaches wanted their players to be doing. I wonder if this needs to be updated, if there‘s been drift in the alignment between what coaches want and what scouts are told to look for, or if there’s not enough discipline in sticking to the traits and evaluations.

I think this is a big part of it. It explains why every year we hear how small their draft board and how different it is from what everyone assumes in terms of rankings (and he's definitely proven that - over and over).

I think he got so much **** for it behind the scenes over the last 2 years that he went completely the other way when drafting Thronton and Pierre Strong. Problem is they both suck too.

I need a drink ..

 

[Ochmed Jones]

bb is a great coach, no doubt in my mind. But his choices for offensive coaches is bizarre.

Bb should be relieved of personnel decisions and draft responsibility

 

[raduray]

I'm sure the scouts feel ignored if he sides with a coach or goes with his own opinion. My point was that I'm sure this occurs across the league. Scouts don't run the draft and make the picks it's their job to provide info to the GMs and Coaches and then they need to consider their roster, skill, and many other factors and draft accordingly for their immediate and long term needs.

I can see that if the coach and personnel guys have different opinions about which position has priority, for example OL vs receiver, but once you've decided on a positional need, I would think you follow the advice of the personnel guys. Why else have them on staff if you're going to ignore their input?

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Curran reported he was ignoring the scouts as they were warning NOT to draft certain guys, and Bill was still drafting them. Ultimately pissed Kraft off enough to have a "collaborative' effort on the drafting.

Yup and with the collaborative effort we ended up with the 2022 draft. Lol.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

bb is a great coach, no doubt in my mind. But his choices for offensive coaches is bizarre.

Bb should be relieved of personnel decisions and draft responsibility

J McDaniels and Bill O'Brien are bizarre choices as offensive coaches?

 

[Sam Bam Cunningham]

One commonly held misconception is that the Pats would have won the SB against the Eagles if only Bill had played Butler.
Butler was bad that year and it is far from a sure thing he would have been a difference maker.
Eagles offense was damn good

 

[Water Boy]

In his timeline, Reiss should have also included:

2020: Patriots wear hideous new uniforms..

 

[signbabybrady]

I can see that if the coach and personnel guys have different opinions about which position has priority, for example OL vs receiver, but once you've decided on a positional need, I would think you follow the advice of the personnel guys. Why else have them on staff if you're going to ignore their input?

Hypothetical your OC is excited about a system fit or how he might use a specific player vs a list of WRs in order of ability.

 

[MrTibbs]

One thing I find interesting is that Nick Caserio was the Director of Player Personnel during this period, but since he's gone to the Texans starting in 2021 he's drafted several decent WRs - Nico Collins (2021, 3rd round), John Metchie III (2022, 2nd round), Tank Dell (2023, 3rd round). None of these guys are elite but they're all solid role players with some potential. So... why was NE incapable of drafting the position? Was Bill not listening to his scouts?

That's exactly what happened. Google the article about why multiple scouts left the team. Regardless of what they said Bill drafted who he wanted. At times he did by recommendation of the players coaches who were also friends. The scouts said stay away from Harry and suggested Brown or Samuels.

Belichick ignores scouts

 

[Brotherblues]

One commonly held misconception is that the Pats would have won the SB against the Eagles if only Bill had played Butler.
Butler was bad that year and it is far from a sure thing he would have been a difference maker.
Eagles offense was damn good

Butler was an average starter that year, which is "bad" only compared to CB1s.

An average starting DB is worlds better than the career special teamers and practice squadders they were trotting out there. The way Brady played they didn't need Law or Revis or Gilmore, just anyone better than Justin Bethel.

 

[RIpats88]

Another thing as well. How many of the players Bill drafted that DID work out see 2nd contracts. Off the top.. Edelman, Hightower, McCourty, I know there has to be others right?.. I can't think of any. As you perfectly stated "his way" the Winning kept all the critics at Bay.. the mad scientist was able to mix& match, draft ST player's and pretty much do what he wanted to do for so long. Has the NFL finally exposed him?

Duggar and Onwenu are also likely gone this year. leaving holes on the OL/safety.

why Bill didn't lock them up?

poor drafts
when you do draft good players, let them leave
hiring DC/Special teams coaches for offense because they are cheap
hiring OC's because you are familiar with them
stocking roster full of average/below average talent because (we can coach them up!)

what part of the last 5-8 years gives anyone confidence in Bill?

 

[RIpats88]

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imagine if we had one of those 2 instead of N'Keal Harry who isnt even in the league anymore? the drafting hasn't gotten much better since then sadly...

Edelman said it was obvious on day 1 he was not an NFL receiver. 4 years later we still don't have a legitimate #1 receiver. Bill hasn't drafted a legit elite offensive talent since Rob Gronkowski in 2010. thats 13 years ago!

but somehow this is fine for fans...

 

[Real fan 02]

imagine if we had one of those 2 instead of N'Keal Harry who isnt even in the league anymore? the drafting hasn't gotten much better since then sadly...

Edelman said it was obvious on day 1 he was not an NFL receiver. 4 years later we still don't have a legitimate #1 receiver. Bill hasn't drafted a legit elite offensive talent since Rob Gronkowski in 2010. thats 13 years ago!

but somehow this is fine for fans...

That's right, and on top of that N'Keal was arguing with coaches. In that 2019 training camp. Then the next season had the nerve to asked to be traded. Don't forget hernandez he was more elite than gronk as a reciever gronk was just a pure beast! Hernandez lined up everywhere and shook DBs and LBs out thier cleats.

It's as a fan just frustrating whenever Bill has decided to put offensive talent around the QB we have broken scoring records and been at the top of league in every offensive stat you can think of.

Tyquan Thornton can be salvaged, he's just not a number 1 he's a guy that can be good for 2 to 3 deep shots a game with talent around him. Will Bill add that talent is the question?..

 

[BTTA]

Cognitive Distortions: 22 Examples & Worksheets (& PDF)

Cognitive distortions are irrational thoughts/beliefs that we reinforce.

positivepsychology.com

 

[Tunescribe]

I know it's been said multiple times, but I'm so glad this type of discourse is now encouraged here, as opposed to thread banning people and labeling them as "fake fans". Will dig into this article on my lunch break.

I think you're overstating this. Objective, fact-based discussion of the team's ill fortunes has never been discouraged and Reiss's timeline is indisputably objective. The upshot is poor personnel decisions (players PLUS coaching staff) and bad quarterbacking have sunk this team. The 2020 season should have been a "bottoming out" and 2021 reinforced that notion. But everything from the Bills playoff blowout-forward has indicated a franchise in decline.