Garoppolo Trade Talks to Heat Up This Week

[Ring 6]

Yeah, but a LOT of these questions you pose are going to be answered, one way or the other, by the end of April. So before the draft comes, I believe most of these roster holes will be filled it not to yourfull satisfaction, but to a comfort level you can deal with.

$65MM (so far) in cap space will solve a lot of current ills before we get to the draft, and besides, we both know that BB does a lot of his best work well AFTER the initial rush of FA and the draft have passed. No one churns a roster more than BB over the course of a season. It's a pattern that has cost Kraft a lot of ring money when the season ends well.

I'm sure we will be active in FA, but nonetheless we have a lot of holes, and we still had guys on the roster that a day 3 pick could compete for a job with.

 

[Nehalem]

20 mill is 3 times the avg salary on Wentz contract.

But you are missing a few things here.
First the cap WAS 20 mill last year. By NEXT year it will probably be 25 mill. Then you have to give him a raise of 20% to keep him capped.
So he would make 1.1, 25, 30,36 or 92.1 mill in 4 years, which is close to 4 times what you would pay the #2 pick.

Why would you have to keep tagging him?

Really the most apt comparison for JG is Osweiler. Osweiler got $18m/yr for 4 years. If JG was a UFA he could probably get something similar. Although teams might be a bit gunshy from Osweilers general suckitude.

Of course the difference is JG is already under contract for $1m. So similar to Butler who is a RFA, his leverage is lessened for this year.

So call a fair contract $1m(already scheduled), and then 3year @18m(to match Osweiler). Then over the next 4 years he makes $55m essentially exactly double what the #2 pick gets.

With reasonable guarantees I think its fair for JG. He makes about what he would get on the open market next year as a UFA, gets to hit his 2nd big contract a year earlier(assuming he plays well), and gets his life changing amount of money a year earlier as well. And that life changing big contract is now in hand. JG could always tear his ACL, or worse ala Bridgewater, in training camp. And then its bye bye big contract.

 

[ForThoseAboutToRock]

The tag doesn't really work that way anymore, as the Redskins are finding out with Cousins. If the Bears trade for JG and let him play, what's the incentive for JG to sign an extension? If they tag him, that's where the negotiations start on salary. If a team things JG is a franchise quarterback, better to commit to it early and get him at a franchise QB salary you can live with.

I think Kirk Cousins makes an interesting point of comparison. The guy earned the starting job and managed to parlay that into a year at the tag performing pretty well in time to reach Unrestricted FA status when the market for his skills couldn't be much better.

However, if you're JG, having as little game time as you do, if a team offers you an extension with a good amount of guaranteed dollars - how do you pass that up?

It'd be a huge gamble [on himself] for JG to play out this year on a new team after refusing to sign an extension. So much can go wrong for a QB that doesn't even depend on the QB's personal performance, nevermind the risk of getting hurt [and then getting a label like "injury prone"]. If he doesn't perform and then hits URFA status, he's in the opposite spot of where Kirk Cousins is right now.

 

[BTTA]

Over the next 2 months, I think we end up resigning most of our important FA's and/or add corresponding FA's from other teams, and end up with a predraft roster that would be competitive even without a draft.

That's the basic strategy every year, to go into the draft without a positional need on the roster so they can draft the BPA. They usually pull it off, too. This year, they only need to sign three players to have a team that is hands down the favorite to win the AFC East and go at least 11-5, if not 12-4: Branch, Hightower, and Bennett, or their replacements. Still need depth at several positions, but the team is still the best in the AFC East. Amazing.

 

[mike_usagisan]

However, if you're JG, having as little game time as you do, if a team offers you an extension with a good amount of guaranteed dollars - how do you pass that up?

It'd be a huge gamble [on himself] for JG to play out this year on a new team after refusing to sign an extension. So much can go wrong for a QB that doesn't even depend on the QB's personal performance, nevermind the risk of getting hurt [and then getting a label like "injury prone"]. If he doesn't perform and then hits URFA status, he's in the opposite spot of where Kirk Cousins is right now.

The comment wasn't about whether JG would sign an extension once acquired, it was that the team acquiring him could let him play on his current contract before deciding whether to offer him an extension. So if JG gets to the middle of next season with a new team or further, and is doing well enough that the team offers him an extension, doesn't it make sense for him to bet on himself at that point and get paid crazy money?

 

[farn]

I'm with Andy : this D made things happen. It is far different in 2016 than fifteen years ago - but despite all the O's advantages in today's game, this year's D made plays when they needed them. Huge, huge ones in the big game.

 

[ForThoseAboutToRock]

The comment wasn't about whether JG would sign an extension once acquired, it was that the team acquiring him could let him play on his current contract before deciding whether to offer him an extension. So if JG gets to the middle of next season with a new team or further, and is doing well enough that the team offers him an extension, doesn't it make sense for him to bet on himself at that point and get paid crazy money?

Fair enough.

However, I don't think it's likely that a team will give up enough to get JG (i.e., a 1st rounder) while also taking wait & see approach you describe above. In my mind's eye, if there's a trade, but no extension, it's JG dictating that scenario.

 

[farn]

Also : I'd think a team making an excellent offer (from NE's viewpoint) for JG would want to lock up Jimmy. I understand the whole "anti-Osweiler" possibilities of "playing it out" for a cheap year. But by giving away solid draft capital, you are linking yourself to JG. And you make sure - before the trade - that he's the guy you want.

 

[Ring 6]

Why would you have to keep tagging him?

That was your suggestion.
If you don't tag him then you have to give him a long term contract.

Really the most apt comparison for JG is Osweiler. Osweiler got $18m/yr for 4 years. If JG was a UFA he could probably get something similar. Although teams might be a bit gunshy from Osweilers general suckitude.

a team that views Jimmy G like Osweiler would never trade a first round pick for him.
Osweiler was a Free Agent. This team will have to sign him to keep the guy they gave up a top pick for.

Of course the difference is JG is already under contract for $1m. So similar to Butler who is a RFA, his leverage is lessened for this year.

Not at all. If a team trades a high first for him, he has the leverage. They aren't trading for him so they can get a year at 1 mill. He would have a long term deal in place when he was traded.

So call a fair contract $1m(already scheduled), and then 3year @18m(to match Osweiler). Then over the next 4 years he makes $55m essentially exactly double what the #2 pick gets.

There is absolutely no chance of that happening. You just made it up. If Jimmy G is THAT sought after he isn't signing an Osweiler contract. Why not just use Ryan Fitzpatricks contract to make the numbers look better, its the same thing.

With reasonable guarantees I think its fair for JG. He makes about what he would get on the open market next year as a UFA, gets to hit his 2nd big contract a year earlier(assuming he plays well), and gets his life changing amount of money a year earlier as well. And that life changing big contract is now in hand. JG could always tear his ACL, or worse ala Bridgewater, in training camp. And then its bye bye big contract.

He will not get what Osweiler got on the open market.
If he were a FA today, he would get more than Osweiler did.
If he waits a year and plays well, he will get a lot more than Osweiler.
If he waits a year and plays like Osweiler he might not get 5 mill a year.

 

[Ring 6]

I think Kirk Cousins makes an interesting point of comparison. The guy earned the starting job and managed to parlay that into a year at the tag performing pretty well in time to reach Unrestricted FA status when the market for his skills couldn't be much better.

However, if you're JG, having as little game time as you do, if a team offers you an extension with a good amount of guaranteed dollars - how do you pass that up?

It'd be a huge gamble [on himself] for JG to play out this year on a new team after refusing to sign an extension. So much can go wrong for a QB that doesn't even depend on the QB's personal performance, nevermind the risk of getting hurt [and then getting a label like "injury prone"]. If he doesn't perform and then hits URFA status, he's in the opposite spot of where Kirk Cousins is right now.

There is too much to go wrong on both sides. Would you want to be the team that traded a top 12 pick for a guy who walked after a year, or a guy you chose not to resign after a year.

A team trading that high a pick for Jimmy G will be sure about him, and therefore will require an extension before trading. Jimmy will get starting QB money. Remember the argument here was that the trading team isn't paying much more for him than what they would pay the pick, which is totally asinine. The pick will get, depending on where it is, 4 years and 20-some million. Jimmy will be in an area where he can sniff 20 mill a year.

 

[scott99]

I think speculating at this point is useless. Me personally, I'd be fine with a high 2nd round pick coupled with other picks. Maybe the Pats and Browns swap 1sts (12 for 32) and the Browns add pick #33 (first pick in the 2nd round). Who knows, only Belichick knows. I can even see him having the mindset of keeping Garappolo another year just as an insurance policy (and also they have Brissett making that 2nd year jump) and losing him for nothing. That may be worth more to him than picks. Only Belichick knows what will happen, and I trust whatever his decision will be, even if we lose JG for free after this year.

 

[mike_usagisan]

Fair enough.

However, I don't think it's likely that a team will give up enough to get JG (i.e., a 1st rounder) while also taking wait & see approach you describe above. In my mind's eye, if there's a trade, but no extension, it's JG dictating that scenario.

Oh, I agree completely. I was making the same argument against someone who said that the team trading for JG didn't have to sign him to an extension. I was saying that if they didn't, the team could end up in the Kirk Cousins situation.

 

[Ring 6]

I think speculating at this point is useless. Me personally, I'd be fine with a high 2nd round pick coupled with other picks. Maybe the Pats and Browns swap 1sts (12 for 32) and the Browns add pick #33 (first pick in the 2nd round). Who knows, only Belichick knows. I can even see him having the mindset of keeping Garappolo another year just as an insurance policy (and also they have Brissett making that 2nd year jump) and losing him for nothing. That may be worth more to him than picks. Only Belichick knows what will happen, and I trust whatever his decision will be, even if we lose JG for free after this year.

12 plus 33 for 32 is really just 12.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Depends on where your franchise is. Look at Kirk Cousins. Was he worth it? Everyone says he played well enough to deserve it but that team isn't ready to win, and he will be gone before they are. Would the Browns have won anything if got a QB 3 years ago? Look at the top QBs in their 2nd-3rd year. Which was worth their 3 years if they walk tomorrow?
But neither of us has any idea whatsoever what kind of guy Jimmy G is.
Its all relative. If that was 1960, and inflation has average 5%, $15,000 then is worth about $250,000 today, granted not $20 mill, but still nice money.

Not even Ken is that old, nor has inflation averaged that high.

 

[Nehalem]

That was your suggestion.
If you don't tag him then you have to give him a long term contract.

a team that views Jimmy G like Osweiler would never trade a first round pick for him.
Osweiler was a Free Agent. This team will have to sign him to keep the guy they gave up a top pick for.

Osweiler got $18m/year last year. Obviously now he wouldn't get that, but when he was signing the contract teams(or at least the Texans) viewed him highly.

Not at all. If a team trades a high first for him, he has the leverage. They aren't trading for him so they can get a year at 1 mill. He would have a long term deal in place when he was traded.

There is absolutely no chance of that happening. You just made it up. If Jimmy G is THAT sought after he isn't signing an Osweiler contract. Why not just use Ryan Fitzpatricks contract to make the numbers look better, its the same thing.

He will not get what Osweiler got on the open market.
If he were a FA today, he would get more than Osweiler did.

Disagree with this. Only 2 QBs make more than $22m/year. Are you really claiming that JG would be paid as a top 3QB after playing 1.5 games

If he waits a year and plays well, he will get a lot more than Osweiler.
If he waits a year and plays like Osweiler he might not get 5 mill a year.

Which is exactly my argument for why signing an ~3 year extension at Osweiler's price is a good idea even from JG perspective. Get life changing money guaranteed. Then in 4 years when you are 29 years old, assuming you play as franchise QB, cash in for the motherload.

 

[Ring 6]

Osweiler got $18m/year last year. Obviously now he wouldn't get that, but when he was signing the contract teams(or at least the Texans) viewed him highly.

Not really. The deal was 2 years for 37 mill with 2 more for 35 tacked on, meaning he got very little up front.
He got a take a chance contract, not the contract he would get if he were considered a top young QB.

Disagree with this. Only 2 QBs make more than $22m/year. Are you really claiming that JG would be paid as a top 3QB after playing 1.5 games

Every good QB in the NFL makes over 20 mill a year.

Which is exactly my argument for why signing an ~3 year extension at Osweiler's price is a good idea even from JG perspective. Get life changing money guaranteed. Then in 4 years when you are 29 years old, assuming you play as franchise QB, cash in for the motherload.

Your argument was trade for him so he can play for you for 1.1mill then you can franchise him later.

No team is trading a 1st round pick for a QB with one year left on his contract without an extension in place.
His extension will not be what Osweiler got.

In any case you are arguing it wouldn't cost more than the pick when the #2 pick cost less than 27 mill for 4 years, and Osweiler got 72mill for 4 years. That is ridiculously more.

 

[scott99]

12 plus 33 for 32 is really just 12.

True, but the Browns may not be comfortable giving up the #12 straight up. Maybe the Browns sweeten the deal with a 4th round pick. Either way, I don't have a good feeling about the return. I think it won't be as good as we hope. Might be a Cassells type of deal. Though I think Jimmy will be a better QB than Cassell.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

We typically WAY overestimate what we're gonna get for our QB trade bait.
While anything is legitimately possible including the 3rd or the 12th pick, although I see it as improbable. Its out of BB's control what he gets offered.
Totally within his control what he accepts or rejects.

I'd move JAG for as little as a high 2nd (top 10) this year with a 2018 1st or its draft points equivalent in 2018...or better obviously.
Even trading him for a pure 2nd, we'd have gotten years of backup and effectively two Ws out of our late 2nd for him. Not bad.

Also on the table is salting the deal with a young player BB likes instead of pure draft pick positioning.

 

[manxman2601]

He might be the most disruptive player I've ever watched.

Better than Aaron Donald? Don't see that myself. He's very good and worthy of taking high but Donald was something else,

 

[Ivan]

We typically WAY overestimate what we're gonna get for our QB trade bait.
While anything is legitimately possible including the 3rd or the 12th pick, although I see it as improbable. Its out of BB's control what he gets offered.
Totally within his control what he accepts or rejects.

I'd move JAG for as little as a high 2nd (top 10) this year with a 2018 1st or its draft points equivalent in 2018...or better obviously.
Even trading him for a pure 2nd, we'd have gotten years of backup and effectively two Ws out of our late 2nd for him. Not bad.

Also on the table is salting the deal with a young player BB likes instead of pure draft pick positioning.

I wouldn't trade him without the first rounder and I wouldn't give the #32 in any trade. If no one wants to give the first then just keep him and take the compensatory after next season. It's not worth trading him for second round picks.