Free Agency - The 8 hour overview

[patfanken]

Well the first 8 hours of FA have passed and I can sense the impatience of many here. We've had some interesting trades and a few explosive deals. What can we glean from this brief foray into the 2013 FA season.

1. I'd be very wary about initial contract numbers. I think we should have learned that there are soft numbers and hard numbers in every deal, and even long term deals have their out clauses. Just ask Ryan Fitzpatrick, who signed a 5 year deal that lasted only about a year and a half, or any of a number of players who are now on the street year before theirs deals were supposed to be up.

2. People are going to look at the Wallace and Harvin deals and say how can the Dolphins and Seahawks pay over $11MM and 13MM/yr respectively, and the Pats can't pay Welker even $9MM. Well lets see how those contract actually break down before we see what is real and what is fluff.

I remember reading the initial reports on the deal Anderson got from the Bills, and couldn't believe how much he seemed to be getting. Then when the deal was broken down a few weeks later, it made a lot more sense

3. Whats the point? The point is we should take the numbers we are seeing when a contract is announced with a large grain of salt. We have to see what's guaranteed and what's not. And even the so called "guaranteed money" often is conditional on health and production. All those things have to be considered.

4. So far....so good. That's my initial reaction. Its good to see so many clubs looking for OT's going for the mid-range guys like the BC kid, Sam Baker, and Loadholt. In my mind it greatly shrinks the market for Volmer. His back HAS to be a big issue with other teams. There's no questioning his talent, his effort, and his intangibles. If it wasn't for his back, he would have been snapped up by now. No team is going to sign him without protecting themselves from his back problems... and the knee surgery didn't help either. Every day that goes by makes it more likely that no one is going of offer significantly more than the Pats

5. The same goes for Welker. No one was looking to snap him up. We haven't even heard about him going to visit any teams, or that there are multiple teams pursuing him. . Again, I think that the longer this process goes the more he and his team will see that the Pats best offer is not going to be THAT far from the best offer out there. I'm sure he will probably get a better offer, but will it be THAT much better. If he were 25, I'm sure it would be different- However plenty of teams are going to look at his age, the rising drops and diminishing YAC and no be willing to play top dollar for his long term services.

Many teams would love to have Welker on their teams, and most would be better for it. However I don't see many who will be willing to pay the money Welker is looking for. I'm hoping (and I'm sure the Pats are as well), that when he realizes that the Pats' offer is closer to the his true market value and they end up making a deal which will be about 5% more that the Pats current offer.

6. The same holds for Talib - The addition of Asomough gives the Pats another very good alternative among several other decent CB alternatives. Its my opinion that we look for CB's in FA and if safety is viewed as a need by the FO, look to the draft to fill that need. To me it looks like a thin market at S and a deep market at CB in FA, while the opposite is true in the draft.

7. We should all keep in mind that the FA period goes on for over 5 more months, and I would remind people of how many valuable FA's have come to the Pats very late in that process. So stay calm. Good things come to them who wait. In the end we will get our share of additional players who will help keep this team competitive.

 

[mgteich]

Perhaps, you are right. However, do you think that under these circumstances, Welker would sign with the patriots or move on? After all, some folks would rather live and work in other places than New England. After watching Hernandez and Gronk get the bucks, while he got the broken promises, perhaps he might choose to move on.

5. I'm hoping (and I'm sure the Pats are as well), that when he realizes that the Pats' offer is closer to the his true market value and they end up making a deal which will be about 5% more that the Pats current offer.

 

[naF staP]

Good write up. But how do you know teams aren't interested in Welker? How do you know he hasn't been given some contract offers? Because he hasn't signed with another team yet? Maybe Welker really wants to stay a Patriot but doesn't like what they offered him. And maybe he is thinking about the other offers and if he really wants to leave for a bit more money or stay for a bit less money and possibly having a smaller role like what started to happen in the beginning of last season.

As a Pats fan I feel Welker still has a lot to offer and gives this team the best chance of being successful. I hope he stays and at a very fair deal!

 

[DaBruinz]

Well the first 8 hours of FA have passed and I can sense the impatience of many here. We've had some interesting trades and a few explosive deals. What can we glean from this brief foray into the 2013 FA season.

1. I'd be very wary about initial contract numbers. I think we should have learned that there are soft numbers and hard numbers in every deal, and even long term deals have their out clauses. Just ask Ryan Fitzpatrick, who signed a 5 year deal that lasted only about a year and a half, or any of a number of players who are now on the street year before theirs deals were supposed to be up.

2. People are going to look at the Wallace and Harvin deals and say how can the Dolphins and Seahawks pay over $11MM and 13MM/yr respectively, and the Pats can't pay Welker even $9MM. Well lets see how those contract actually break down before we see what is real and what is fluff.

Wallace's deal is 5 years for $60 million while Harvin's deal is 6 years at $67 million. How do you figure that works out to $11 M and $13M respectively? Sorry, PFK, but your math is flat wrong. That works out to $12M for Wallace and slightly over $11M for Harvin. And, as I mentioned in another thread, the CBA rules only allow amortization over a 5 year span. So, the 6th year of Harvin's deal is basically a year that can be cancelled risk free for the Seahawks.

3. Whats the point? The point is we should take the numbers we are seeing when a contract is announced with a large grain of salt. We have to see what's guaranteed and what's not. And even the so called "guaranteed money" often is conditional on health and production. All those things have to be considered.

We've already started seeing what is guaranteed and what isn't.
Levitre - 6years /48.6 Million with 10.5M Signing bonus. Salary for this year is $2.5M and next year is $6.5M.
Harvin: 6years/ $67Million 14.5 Million guaranteed and another 11M guaranteed for Injury.

The Wallace, Wheeler, and Ellerbe contracts from Miami have been the only real "Say What?" contracts in this free agency period, IMHO. All 3 seem to have been over-paid by $2M per year. I only see a few uneducated souls whining and complaining about contracts, but more they are complaining that the Pats haven't done anything yet..

4. So far....so good. That's my initial reaction. Its good to see so many clubs looking for OT's going for the mid-range guys like the BC kid, Sam Baker, and Loadholt. In my mind it greatly shrinks the market for Volmer. His back HAS to be a big issue with other teams. There's no questioning his talent, his effort, and his intangibles. If it wasn't for his back, he would have been snapped up by now. No team is going to sign him without protecting themselves from his back problems... and the knee surgery didn't help either. Every day that goes by makes it more likely that no one is going of offer significantly more than the Pats

Jermon Bushrod is hardly a "mid-range" OT. And he signed for good money with the Bears. Beyond that, only Cherilus actually MOVED. The other two were re-signs. The other two OT signings were bottom of the barrel guys.

Not sure how you can say that it "greatly shrinks the market for Vollmer" when Jake Long is still out there and teams like the Phins, NYJests, Bills, Lions, Chargers, Cowboys, Rams, and Cardinals could all use a RT. The good thing about the signing of Loadholt is that it was for mid-range money and that should bode well for the Pats chances at re-signing Vollmer, though it will be tough, especially with Miami still having a boatload of cash.

7. We should all keep in mind that the FA period goes on for over 5 more months, and I would remind people of how many valuable FA's have come to the Pats very late in that process. So stay calm. Good things come to them who wait. In the end we will get our share of additional players who will help keep this team competitive.

Actually, by the league calendar, Free Agency ends at the start of camp. Which is in July. Then it's just teams filling needs as they arise. Otherwise, you'd have to say that Free Agency runs to week 10 of the season.. Which is the last week that players who haven't signed with a team during the league year can sign and be eligible for the play-off roster.

 

[DaBruinz]

Perhaps, you are right. However, do you think that under these circumstances, Welker would sign with the patriots or move on? After all, some folks would rather live and work in other places than New England. After watching Hernandez and Gronk get the bucks, while he got the broken promises, perhaps he might choose to move on.

What broken promises??

 

[strngplyr]

Wallace's deal is 5 years for $60 million while Harvin's deal is 6 years at $67 million. How do you figure that works out to $11 M and $13M respectively? Sorry, PFK, but your math is flat wrong. That works out to $12M for Wallace and slightly over $11M for Harvin. And, as I mentioned in another thread, the CBA rules only allow amortization over a 5 year span. So, the 6th year of Harvin's deal is basically a year that can be cancelled risk free for the Seahawks.

Wallace's deal was initially reported as 5/65 aka 13m/year and Harvin's average is 11.16, thats not "flat wrong" it's off by under 200k.

 

[DaBruinz]

Wallace's deal was initially reported as 5/65 aka 13m/year and Harvin's average is 11.16, thats not "flat wrong" it's off by under 200k.

I see we have a case where someone doesn't understand what the word RESPECTIVELY means. It means that the numbers apply to the previously mentioned nouns in the order they were mentioned. He mentioned Wallace first and Harvin second. He mentioned $11 million first and $13 M second. That means the $11 million applies to Wallace and the $13 Million applies to Harvin. So, contrary to your FUNNY math, PFK was off by $1M per year on Wallace and $1.833M on Harvin.

So, how can you sit there and say it's not flat out wrong when, in fact, it is?

As for what was initially reported, sorry, but the $65 million was numbers RUMORED this weekend. The first reports today said 5yr/$60 million. And that was confirmed later this evening by Jeff Darlington.

 

[Clonamery]

What broken promises??

Yeah, but at least he didn't start another thread about it.

 

[Ring 6]

Perhaps, you are right. However, do you think that under these circumstances, Welker would sign with the patriots or move on? After all, some folks would rather live and work in other places than New England. After watching Hernandez and Gronk get the bucks, while he got the broken promises, perhaps he might choose to move on.

What do you mean by broken promises?
Aren't you projected something into this that requires massive assumption?

 

[ewg_gestalt]

Perhaps, you are right. However, do you think that under these circumstances, Welker would sign with the patriots or move on? After all, some folks would rather live and work in other places than New England. After watching Hernandez and Gronk get the bucks, while he got the broken promises, perhaps he might choose to move on.

Gronk and Hernandez's deals, on an annual basis, aren't much better than they're offering Welker. Gronk and Hernandez are also both 23. That's a big difference right there.

 

[Gumby]

Well the first 8 hours of FA have passed and I can sense the impatience of many here. ........

4. So far....so good. That's my initial reaction. ......

5. The same goes for Welker. No one was looking to snap him up. We haven't even heard about him going to visit any teams, or that there are multiple teams pursuing him. . Again, I think that the longer this process goes the more he and his team will see that the Pats best offer is not going to be THAT far from the best offer out there. I'm sure he will probably get a better offer, but will it be THAT much better. If he were 25, I'm sure it would be different- However plenty of teams are going to look at his age, the rising drops and diminishing YAC and no be willing to play top dollar for his long term services.

Many teams would love to have Welker on their teams, and most would be better for it. However I don't see many who will be willing to pay the money Welker is looking for. I'm hoping (and I'm sure the Pats are as well), that when he realizes that the Pats' offer is closer to the his true market value and they end up making a deal which will be about 5% more that the Pats current offer.

6. .....

7. We should all keep in mind that the FA period goes on for over 5 more months, and I would remind people of how many valuable FA's have come to the Pats very late in that process. So stay calm. Good things come to them who wait. In the end we will get our share of additional players who will help keep this team competitive.

concurrences from a fellow "PATIENCE grasshopper" advocate. Anyone who expected to see a Pats move in first 12 let alone 24-48 hours hasn't been paying too much attention for years or was just forgetting history in a sense of forlorn optimism.

on welker though; considering that as I understand the tampering period rules; (potential FAs could TALK WITH but could not VISIT other clubs); using the fact he hasnt visited anyone in the FIRST 8 HOURS of FA is kind of hypocritical to your own point about patience.

I think it all makes fiscal sense; but there is the human-element too. At some point Welker may just say ok, the Vikings offer (just made that up)is only 200K more and they are losers; but screw it; I am just tired of dealing with these guys every year contractually. Hopefully he is astute/mature enough to separate business side from the performance-side; because he wont get an equal opportunity elsewhere (not even GB/NO IMO if they were even interested). I think that fear is what spooks a lot of folks who would like to see Pats retain WW.

Only other complaint (I know you didnt mean it this way, BUT); I DONT WANT A TEAM THAT IS COMPETITIVE The Broncos, Falcons, Seattle, Minny and Cincy were all COMPETITIVE. I want DOMINANT - SB FAVORITE (well i dont really care about media favorites), but SB DESTINED is what I really am looking for. ( Of course that doesnt come in any one-week of FA period; but the entire process of team-building and development.) TB's clock is ticking though and we need them to get back there this year.

 

[patfanken]

Perhaps, you are right. However, do you think that under these circumstances, Welker would sign with the patriots or move on? After all, some folks would rather live and work in other places than New England. After watching Hernandez and Gronk get the bucks, while he got the broken promises, perhaps he might choose to move on.

What big bucks MG. IIRC, neither Hernandez or Gronk will see anything close to what the Pats are offering Welker now for another 3 years. And what broken promises. Even Welker's camp hasn't made that claim....yet.

C'mon man, there are plenty of legitimate arguments that can be used to make the case to pay Welker what he wants, you don't have to use these phony ones.

 

[Nunchucks]

Gronk and Hernadez are both playmakers in the spring of their prime. Welker is an old fox looking for one last score.

 

[patfanken]

Wallace's deal is 5 years for $60 million while Harvin's deal is 6 years at $67 million. How do you figure that works out to $11 M and $13M respectively? Sorry, PFK, but your math is flat wrong. That works out to $12M for Wallace and slightly over $11M for Harvin. And, as I mentioned in another thread, the CBA rules only allow amortization over a 5 year span. So, the 6th year of Harvin's deal is basically a year t
hat can be cancelled risk free for the Seahawks.

My error just proves my point DB. I was just repeating what I heard from initial "sources" when the deals were first announced. Your follow up information only shows how different the "actual" deals are from what we first hear and immediately react to.

We've already started seeing what is guaranteed and what isn't.
Levitre - 6years /48.6 Million with 10.5M Signing bonus. Salary for this year is $2.5M and next year is $6.5M.
Harvin: 6years/ $67Million 14.5 Million guaranteed and another 11M guaranteed for Injury.

The Wallace, Wheeler, and Ellerbe contracts from Miami have been the only real "Say What?" contracts in this free agency period, IMHO. All 3 seem to have been over-paid by $2M per year. I only see a few uneducated souls whining and complaining about contracts, but more they are complaining that the Pats haven't done anything yet..

I think, again, that was my point. Why would anyone possibly be complaining that the Pats "haven't done anything yet". Its been 8 hours (actually now 17) That's foolishness

Bushrod is hardly a "mid-range" OT. And he signed for good money with the Bears. Beyond that, only Cherilus actually MOVED. The other two were re-signs. The other two OT signings were bottom of the barrel guys.

Not sure how you can say that it "greatly shrinks the market for Vollmer" when Jake Long is still out there and teams like the Phins, NYJests, Bills, Lions, Chargers, Cowboys, Rams, and Cardinals could all use a RT. The good thing about the signing of Loadholt is that it was for mid-range money and that should bode well for the Pats chances at re-signing Vollmer, though it will be tough, especially with Miami still having a boatload of cash.

Isn't Bushrod coming off a relatively bad year with NO?. BTW-most of the teams you listed are cap strapped and paying top dollar (whatever that is) to a RT with back problems is probably not high on their agenda. I agree that there are a few, like the Dolphins, who have both the need and the cap space, but my point was that there are fewer of them now than there were at the start of FA

Actually, by the league calendar, Free Agency ends at the start of camp. Which is in July. Then it's just teams filling needs as they arise. Otherwise, you'd have to say that Free Agency runs to week 10 of the season.. Which is the last week that players who haven't signed with a team during the league year can sign and be eligible for the play-off roster.

C'mon DB, you're nit picking here. There have been a number of Pats who became major contributors who have been brought in after Camp started. Right off the top of my head, Brian Waters, Rob Ninkovich, and the big NT in 2003, whose name escapes me.

Again, the point was that no should be "complaining that the Pats "haven't done anything yet" after the first 8 hours when there are literally to months go before the process is finished.

BTW- thanks again for the more detailed contract info. I wouldn't be surprised to see even those numbers amended as time goes on.

 

[b72s]

REALLY SETTING UP NICE AS DEPTH AT ALL AREAS OF NEED ON DEFENSE

VETERANS ON PASS RUSH CB AND SAFETY


Any thoughts on looking at Oakland cuts Bey and or Huff at Safety???

 

[patfanken]

DHB is an intriguing prospect. Great skills and talent, that hasn't translated into any production that compares with that talent. He certainly has size and skills that we don't have now. IF he came in at the right price, I'd love to see how he'd work out. Certainly signing a one year deal with the Pats would give him a great opportunity to resuscitate his career.

Huff is a similar story. A top 10 draft pick IIRC, who never measured up to his talent in Oakland. He has the size we are looking for. Maybe in another system he can reach his potential. Certainly makes this FA season even more interesting.

 

[mgteich]

Forget all of what happened last year if you wish.

What big bucks MG. IIRC, neither Hernandez or Gronk will see anything close to what the Pats are offering Welker now for another 3 years. And what broken promises. Even Welker's camp hasn't made that claim....yet.

C'mon man, there are plenty of legitimate arguments that can be used to make the case to pay Welker what he wants, you don't have to use these phony ones.

 

[DaBruinz]

Isn't Bushrod coming off a relatively bad year with NO?. BTW-most of the teams you listed are cap strapped and paying top dollar (whatever that is) to a RT with back problems is probably not high on their agenda. I agree that there are a few, like the Dolphins, who have both the need and the cap space, but my point was that there are fewer of them now than there were at the start of FA

Actually, all the teams I mentioned could easily sign Vollmer for the same contract that Loadholt got. And one team I didn't know about, who has a LOT of money is Cinncinnati. So, 3 fewer teams doesn't make a lot of difference when you've got another 10 possibilities..

 

[patfanken]

Actually, all the teams I mentioned could easily sign Vollmer for the same contract that Loadholt got. And one team I didn't know about, who has a LOT of money is Cinncinnati. So, 3 fewer teams doesn't make a lot of difference when you've got another 10 possibilities..

DB, don't you think that the Pats would love to sign Volmer to something like the Loadholt contract. I think they'd do that deal in a second. Don't you?

 

[patfanken]

Forget all of what happened last year if you wish.

OK, I'll bite, MG. What promises were broken last year? All I know is that the Pats promised to pay Welker $9.3MM. Welker got a fair paycheck given his production and the Pats got value from their investment What's the problem?