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Fox/NFL Outsiders rank backfields - Pats #10

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by PatsRI, Jul 13, 2006.

  1. PatsRI

    PatsRI PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/5776936


    10. New England

    A banged-up Corey Dillon who missed four games and came off the bench in two others was still worth over 20 points above replacement level. With first-round pick Laurence Maroney available this year to spell the aging Dillon, the Patriots shouldn't have to go so far down the depth chart that the backup fullback gets over 50 carries again. Even though he'll be 32 at midseason, Dillon should be healthy and effective enough, when paired with Maroney, to allow Kevin Faulk to return to his proper role as third-down back. That, in turn, will help Faulk rebound from the third-worst rushing DVOA in the league last year.

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    This is how they come up with thier rankings:

    These rankings started with the productivity of each team's halfbacks in 2005 and then were adjusted subjectively for things like age (the cruel reality of the NFL, especially for running backs), the quality of fullbacks, and the likelihood of improvement or decline. Teams like the Giants, Falcons and Cardinals (including Edgerrin James) would top the charts based on last year, but they all rely heavily on aging backs likely to pull either a Curtis Martin — an injury-plagued season after a career year at age 31 — or a Marshall Faulk — a slow decline after a consistently productive career. The teams that top the rankings below have great starting backs who are relatively young and durable, with good players available behind them — and ideally great fullbacks in front of them. You'll see a lot of stats you recognize here, and a couple you may not: DPAR, or Defense-adjusted Points Above Replacement, and DVOA, Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. Both stats take every single play during the season and compares it to the league average based on situation and opponent, rewarding players for strong performance on third down and in the red zone and giving them less credit for meaningless gains like a nine-yard catch on third-and-12. The difference: More DPAR means a running back with more total value, while a higher DVOA means a running back with more value per play. This page lists these advanced stats for all running backs in 2005, both rushing and receiving.

    AFC East:
    Pats #10
    Miami #18
    Buf #20
    Jets dead last
     
    Last edited: Jul 13, 2006
  2. shakadave

    shakadave In the Starting Line-Up

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    Great read!

    Required reading here!
     
  3. zippo59

    zippo59 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    They tank the Colts at 26 and the blurb about them is less than positive.

     

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