Florio, King, Moss on Cassel's future

[Jimke]

As much as we all focus on the salary cap, as a practical matter owners also tend not to like to spend $30 million over two years to guys who are going to be on the bench. Sure, he's an insurance policy for Brady, but a $30 million insurance policy?

Also keep in mind that as an RFA tendered a $16 million salary, teams would have to give up a 1st and a 3rd to get him.

If they haven't been able to work a trade that good this year, they would know before offering him the RFA tender of $16 million next year that they're running a pretty high risk of putting themselves in the same situation.

I think we can all agree that the Patriots likely would prefer to trade Cassel this year but have run the risk of keeping him this season by tagging him, and having Cassel sign the tender, and then unable or unwilling to find a trading partner that 1. Cassel likes, 2. Will pay Cassel what he wants and 3. Willing to give decent compensation to the Patriots. With Brady's health technically in question I can understand a willingness to risk $15 million on a backup for one season. But I don't see them willing to spend $30 million over 2 seasons, especially if Brady's fully back to health (and if he's not healthy then that's another matter entirely)

If they haven't been able to achieve that this year I don't see them taking a higher risk of paying Cassel another $16 million next season - so my assumption is that they would not lock him in as a RFA at $16 million.

From Cassel's perspective, if someone offered him the option of taking $25 million guaranteed this year, or $30 million for this year and next to sit on the bench, plus whatever he can get as a free agent in 2011 (yes I know in this hypothetical we're three years in the future) that's not a bad deal for Cassel... counting a guestimate $30 million signing bonus in 2011, we'd be talking $60 million over three years - all of it guranteed each year -for an average of $20 million a season.

Not bad.... and much more than he'd get in three years signing a long term deal this season. But again I don't think the Patriots would lock him in for 2010.

I think you're making pretty good sense. No way the Patriots will tender
him again next year. The Patriots cannot make much of a splash this
year in free agency due to Cassel's contract. I can't see them handicapping
themselves another year.

If Brady is healthy and Cassel rides the bench, Cassel's value will diminish
quite rapidly. I just hope the situation can be resolved quickly and the
Patriots receive something of value this year. Anything more than a third
round compensatory pick would be a plus.

 

[upstater1]

Count me as one who thinks it would be absolutely ******ed if Detroit didn't try to get Cassel.

They have had like one good QB in franchise history and they have sucked at drafting the past decade or so.

They have two 1st RD picks and I think a few extra in the next few RDs too.

They have a WR in Calvin Johnson to give Cassel a good target.

They should try to keep #3 and Take a OL or Curry/another top De talent and use #20 and some extra if needed to get Cassel and since the pats are pretty stocked this year in RDs 2-4 we could take the extra if needed from them next year.

Cost them relativelylittle this year and gets them the QB they sorely need. THEY WOULD BE STUPID NOT TO TRY and in my biased opinion should even be willing to give up there #1 overall.

I was just thinking this. Detroit told a couple backups this week that they are going with Daunte Culpepper. That made me think they were bluffing to get backup salaries down. This must mean they do not believe the backups will be anything more than backups, but I can't take Culpepper seriously, so...

Detroit is DEFINITELY going for a QB, and that QB's name starts with Matt and he has a double consonant in his last name.

 

[mgteich]

What part of "it's a business" don't you understand? Handing players $10M extra will not happen unless Kraft thinks that he will get more net revenue if he spends the money. The goal for Kraft is absolutely NOT to win at all costs.

Yes, and that value has always been based on the cap. Without the cap, theres no constraint. In the case of a league with an uncapped year, as long as its not multiple years, theres no effect on roster flexibility.


If the patriots do not use their income advantage to create a roster advantage during an uncapped year, thats just stupid.

 

[BradyManny]

Yes, and that value has always been based on the cap. Without the cap, theres no constraint. In the case of a league with an uncapped year, as long as its not multiple years, theres no effect on roster flexibility.


If the patriots do not use their income advantage to create a roster advantage during an uncapped year, thats just stupid.

Yeah, but look at the economy we're in, its a nightmare and it does affect even sports - I don't think it'll exactly be a spending free for all if there is an uncapped year.

 

[JoeSixPat]

I think you're making pretty good sense. No way the Patriots will tender
him again next year. The Patriots cannot make much of a splash this
year in free agency due to Cassel's contract. I can't see them handicapping
themselves another year.

If Brady is healthy and Cassel rides the bench, Cassel's value will diminish
quite rapidly. I just hope the situation can be resolved quickly and the
Patriots receive something of value this year. Anything more than a third
round compensatory pick would be a plus.

I assume you mean that Cassel's value - in terms of trade value - will diminish rapidly. Cassel's value as a QB and ability to find a deal with another team will likely not diminish... in fact, if a team no longer is looking at giving up high draft picks to get him, his ability to maximize his contract might actually go up, especially in an uncapped year.

Given the number of teams in need of a QB this year - and by all indications the lack of franchise quality FA QBs and the lack of franchise quality QBs coming out in the draft, there might not be quite as many teams on the hunt for a QB, but there will still be plenty... and none of them will need give up any picks.

 

[mgteich]

I would add the rams and the bears, giving a total of eight possible teams. And yes, I know that the bucs and the bears have already indicated that they have a QB, and that minny may soon have one. I don't think this means that any of these are out of the running.

The lions seem to have the most flexibility being able to give a 20 if they need to, and can fall back on their 33.

It seems that we will likely get a pick between 17 and 35 plus a conditional pick in the 2010 draft. All the seven teams have picks in that range except for WASH which picks at 13.

My best guess is KC's 34 plus a conditional pick.

The issue for teams is not likely to be the draft pick compensation, the issue is whether they are willing to pay Cassel enough to satisfy a player with a one-year guaranteed $14.6M contract. I can't imagine that he would take less that $40K over five years, with half of it in guaranteed money.

Florio: Trading Patriots QB Matt Cassel not as easy as it looks

He sees six candidates: KC, MIN, NYJ, DET, TB, and . . . WAS.

He thinks that KC is out: "With both sides of the transaction fearful of the external perception that one of them was snookered (and with each side surely hoping to snooker the other), it'll be virtually impossible to forge an agreement with which everyone feels comfortable."

Needless to say, he sees NYJ as a non-starter, and brings up the Mills incident to pooh-pooh the likelihood of MIN.

WAS is his dark-horse candidate: "Today, most teams regard draft picks with greater value. The Redskins don't; they were ready to give up a first-round pick and possibly a second one last year for Chad Johnson. So if they decide to make a run at Cassel, they'll likely be the ones to land him."

He doesn't have anything negative to say about DET per se, except for perceptions, and he doesn't rule out TB either.

 

[fgssand]

What part of "it's a business" don't you understand? Handing players $10M extra will not happen unless Kraft thinks that he will get more net revenue if he spends the money. The goal for Kraft is absolutely NOT to win at all costs.

Yes and no, certainly Kraft is not going throw money away like drunken sailor or George Steinbrenner's old Yankee ways....however, in an uncapped World, I think they will do whatever it takes to bring in the talent needed.

Winning a championship goes a long way toward bringing in revenues for many years.

In this case, you very well may get what you pay for and justify it IF you win all.

 

[BradyBranch39]

I was just thinking this. Detroit told a couple backups this week that they are going with Daunte Culpepper. That made me think they were bluffing to get backup salaries down. This must mean they do not believe the backups will be anything more than backups, but I can't take Culpepper seriously, so...

Detroit is DEFINITELY going for a QB, and that QB's name starts with Matt and he has a double consonant in his last name.

You're implying that the Lions are smart.

And to the Campbell debate... if you say the 16th best QB is league-average, he's below average. Maybe around 21 or 22. And his contract is not for that much longer.

 

[PatsChamp88]

You're implying that the Lions are smart.

Thanks for a good laugh! Just saw this too made me LOL

Dan Orlovsky has opted to test free agency rather than re-sign with the Lions.
Detroit only offered a spot on the depth chart behind Daunte Culpepper. Orlovsky won't get a chance to start elsewhere, but he's proven capable of being a quality backup. He was the Lions' most effective passer last season.

If thats not good enough maybe the Lions can take a shot at

Free agent Ryan Fitzpatrick has informed the Bengals that he'll test the open market next weekend.

This way they can have a QB with exceptional experience in overtime just in case they tie someone.

 

[TealSox]

With both Bledsoe and Branch, the Pats said "We want a first-round pick, period" and didn't much care which year they got it. So that's the way to bet.

I still like my idea of grabbing the Dallas first/Detroit second pair and sending back a face-savingly large basket of second-day picks, but teams don't seem to think that way. Maybe it makes the scouts feel they wasted their year or something.

I don't want to believe a 1st pick isn't possible, but Bledsoe had a few Pro Bowls under his belt and Branch was a Super Bowl MVP. Cassel has neither on his resume. A couple playoff wins could had helped move Cassel more quickly, but I think teams are afraid to drop big money/picks into a one year performer.

 

[TealSox]

I was just thinking this. Detroit told a couple backups this week that they are going with Daunte Culpepper. That made me think they were bluffing to get backup salaries down. This must mean they do not believe the backups will be anything more than backups, but I can't take Culpepper seriously, so...

Detroit is DEFINITELY going for a QB, and that QB's name starts with Matt and he has a double consonant in his last name.

If Scott Linehan has much of a say, I wouldn't be surprised if he dials up Dante Culpepper as his starting QB. He had a ton of success with Moss and Culpepper while with the Vikings and likely sees Calvin as the next coming of Randy Moss. Kevin Smith will play the role of Robert Smith and the Lions offense will fall on its face because Culpepper is a shell of himself.

Schwartz will take get the defense in order once Linehan agrees that Culpepper is the answer and he'll be looking for a job in three years.

 

[mgteich]

Detroit is at least a 3 year project. They don't need to spend $10M or even $20M (including bonus) to a QB this year. It seems more prudent to use the picks and the money to build the team, bring in a free agent QB and draft a QB after the first round.

If Scott Linehan has much of a say, I wouldn't be surprised if he dials up Dante Culpepper as his starting QB. He had a ton of success with Moss and Culpepper while with the Vikings and likely sees Calvin as the next coming of Randy Moss. Kevin Smith will play the role of Robert Smith and the Lions offense will fall on its face because Culpepper is a shell of himself.

Schwartz will take get the defense in order once Linehan agrees that Culpepper is the answer and he'll be looking for a job in three years.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

One other thing I just noted:

I'm surprised that a quarterback who played as well as Cassel did for the last 10 weeks of the season is being viewed by most people in the league as too risky to chart a long-term course with. It's not often in free agency or in trade that a young quarterback with promise is available. And while I understand it's a millstone around Cassel that he'd require probably two fairly high picks plus an average of $14 million-ish a year in a contract, I still think I'd rather have Cassel as my quarterback of the future than, say, Matthew Stafford. And the money's not that much different.

Didn't he just say $11M/yr last week?

 

[Synovia]

Detroit is at least a 3 year project. They don't need to spend $10M or even $20M (including bonus) to a QB this year. It seems more prudent to use the picks and the money to build the team, bring in a free agent QB and draft a QB after the first round.

Good quarterbacks have 15 year careers. They're the players you start building around. That way, 3 years down the road, when you expect to compete, you're not bringing in a rookie who needs 3 years to develope.

 

[Synovia]

What part of "it's a business" don't you understand? Handing players $10M extra will not happen unless Kraft thinks that he will get more net revenue if he spends the money. The goal for Kraft is absolutely NOT to win at all costs.

You don't think that winning superbowls increases net revenue? You don't think it sells extra jerseys and hats?

 

[fgssand]

I don't want to believe a 1st pick isn't possible, but Bledsoe had a few Pro Bowls under his belt and Branch was a Super Bowl MVP. Cassel has neither on his resume. A couple playoff wins could had helped move Cassel more quickly, but I think teams are afraid to drop big money/picks into a one year performer.

As opposed to what?? Sinking money into unproven, not really first round QB's, or status quo like Chicago or Minnesota, or, select one of any number of over the hill or not so good veterans that have no upside (garcia, collins, boller etc) guys that will cost a lot of money anyway and get injured or simply have never won.

If there were bona fide QB's in this draft, like Ryan or Flacco, or if there were other young QB's with experience and upside, I could see the debate.

To me - the risk / reward for Cassel is lower than any other scenario, assuming winning is a teams goal.

 

[upstater1]

Good quarterbacks have 15 year careers. They're the players you start building around. That way, 3 years down the road, when you expect to compete, you're not bringing in a rookie who needs 3 years to develope.

+1

QB is your first building block, then LT and then defensive front 7.

 

[JoeSixPat]

I was just thinking this. Detroit told a couple backups this week that they are going with Daunte Culpepper. That made me think they were bluffing to get backup salaries down. This must mean they do not believe the backups will be anything more than backups, but I can't take Culpepper seriously, so...

Detroit is DEFINITELY going for a QB, and that QB's name starts with Matt and he has a double consonant in his last name.

Is your assumption that Cassel doesn't care where he goes as long as they are willing to pay him what he demands?

If not, do you view Detroit as being Cassel's desired team? Because Cassel can block any trade and I would think Detroit might be one team he'd consider doing so.

We need to keep in mind that "who wants" Matt Cassel isn't the only factor here. It's "who Cassel wants" that might ultimately be the deciding factor.

Overall that makes for a slightly more complicated picture, though far from impossible... a team that 1.) Wants Cassel and 2.) has enough cap space or enough parts in place on Offense to protect Cassel at the very least and 3.) is willing to pay Cassel what he demands and 4.) on top of all of that is willing to give the Patriots what they demand in trade.

Not every team interested in a QB fits that profile.

 

[TealSox]

As opposed to what?? Sinking money into unproven, not really first round QB's, or status quo like Chicago or Minnesota, or, select one of any number of over the hill or not so good veterans that have no upside (garcia, collins, boller etc) guys that will cost a lot of money anyway and get injured or simply have never won.

If there were bona fide QB's in this draft, like Ryan or Flacco, or if there were other young QB's with experience and upside, I could see the debate.

To me - the risk / reward for Cassel is lower than any other scenario, assuming winning is a teams goal.

100% agree. If I were a Lions, Vikings, Bears, Panthers or Chiefs fan, I would want Cassel at the helm rather than Stafford or Sanchez or anyone on the current/respective roster (Delhomme is 33 and not getting any younger).

But any of those teams could legitimately strong arm the Pats and give up less than a first round pick unless the Pats get them in a bidding war. Schaub was moved in late March. If we are in the same conversation come that time, I'll start to be concerned.

 

[mgteich]

15 year contracts are not allowed in the NFL.

Good quarterbacks have 15 year careers. They're the players you start building around. That way, 3 years down the road, when you expect to compete, you're not bringing in a rookie who needs 3 years to develope.