Final Standings...a sneak preview

[dryheat44]

In the name of boredom, I've broken down every team's schedule, and figured out their records for the upcoming seasons. Figuring in things like HFA, cross-country travel, weather, system vs. system matchups, rookies playing better, perennially injured players getting injured, teams laying down with nothing left to play for, etc is tough work, but in a couple of hours, I've got it down. And I present to you the final regular season standings. I like the Pats' chances. Probably more optimistic this year than the last five. With the most favorable schedule, the playoffs could well go through Foxboro, where it's hard to see them losing:

AFC East
New England 13-3 (5-1)
Miami 9-7 (4-2)
Buffalo 5-11 (2-4)
New York 4-12 (1-5)

AFC North
Cincinnati 11-5 (5-1)
Pittsburgh 10-6 (3-3)
Baltimore 9-7 (2-4)
Cleveland 6-10 (2-4)

AFC South
Indianapolis 11-5 (5-1)
Jacksonville 10-6 (3-3)
Houston 5-11 (2-4)
Tennessee 4-12 (2-4)

AFC West
Denver 11-5 (5-1)
San Diego 11-5 (3-3)
Kansas City 10-6 (3-3)
Oakland 6-10 (1-5)


NFC East
Philadelphia 11-5 (3-3)
Dallas 10-6 (3-3)
Washington 10-6 (3-3)
New York 8-8 (3-3)

NFC North
Chicago 11-5 (5-1)
Detroit 7-9 (5-1)
Green Bay 5-11 (1-5)
Minnesota 4-12 (1-5)

NFC South
Carolina 13-3 (4-2)
Tampa Bay 7-9 (4-2)
Atlanta 5-11 (2-4)
New Orleans 4-12 (2-4)

NFC West
Arizona 10-6 (4-2)
Seattle 9-7 (5-1)
St. Louis 5-11 (2-4)
San Francisco 3-13 (1-5)

That makes the Wild Cards San Diego and Jacksonville in the AFC and Dallas and Washington in the NFC.

Breakout players: Philip Rivers and Cedric Benson.

You'll note the AFC is the stronger conference still, and once again there aren't too many teams in the 7-9 to 9-7 range, as the rift between good teams and bad teams remains fairly pronounced.

You're Welcome.

 

[DaBruinz]

And here I thought I had too much time on my hands.....

 

[5 Rings for Brady!!]

I think Miami goes 10-6 or 11-5, but the important thing is we expose them in the second match-up of the year, and Culpepper's resurgency is derailed before the playoffs. He still beats Brady in ProBowl ballots, however....

I have trouble predicting a big year for the Steelers, I think they swap records with the Ravens.

San Diego will stink in that tough division, 8-8 at best.
Kansas City also looks like a 8-8 team, or worse. Herman Edwards takes over a crap defense and aging offense? Hello? HELLO?

The Redskins were one of the most overrated teams last year, and will regress. The Giants are at least tied with Cowboys for #2 in division, if the Cowboys don't collapse under a huge TO versus QB episode 3.

NOBODY in NFC North cracks 9-7.

No respect for the SeaHens? They'll look good again next year, methinks.

 

[pats1]

What? Huh? How in the world can the Dolphins NOT do better than last season? They got Culpepper! That means at least one more win!!! Meanwhile, the Pats lost Duane Starks and Tyrone Poole! They have NO defense left!

 

[TeamPats]

Also, the AFC East schedule is infinately easier this year then last, so I agree with the Pats having a much better record...Miami's record should also reflect that.

 

[5 Rings for Brady!!]

And the 'Big Three' was shattered, like a supernova, and sent careening into an alternate universe.

 

[dryheat44]

And as an added treat, I've attached my worksheet to the original post.

 

[desi-patsfan]

In the name of boredom, I've broken down every team's schedule, and figured out their records for the upcoming seasons. Figuring in things like HFA, cross-country travel, weather, system vs. system matchups, rookies playing better, perennially injured players getting injured, teams laying down with nothing left to play for, etc is tough work, but in a couple of hours, I've got it down. And I present to you the final regular season standings. I like the Pats' chances. Probably more optimistic this year than the last five. With the most favorable schedule, the playoffs could well go through Foxboro, where it's hard to see them losing:

AFC East
New England 13-3 (5-1)
Miami 9-7 (4-2)
Buffalo 5-11 (2-4)
New York 4-12 (1-5)

AFC North
Cincinnati 11-5 (5-1)
Pittsburgh 10-6 (3-3)
Baltimore 9-7 (2-4)
Cleveland 6-10 (2-4)

AFC South
Indianapolis 11-5 (5-1)
Jacksonville 10-6 (3-3)
Houston 5-11 (2-4)
Tennessee 4-12 (2-4)

AFC West
Denver 11-5 (5-1)
San Diego 11-5 (3-3)
Kansas City 10-6 (3-3)
Oakland 6-10 (1-5)


NFC East
Philadelphia 11-5 (3-3)
Dallas 10-6 (3-3)
Washington 10-6 (3-3)
New York 8-8 (3-3)

NFC North
Chicago 11-5 (5-1)
Detroit 7-9 (5-1)
Green Bay 5-11 (1-5)
Minnesota 4-12 (1-5)

NFC South
Carolina 13-3 (4-2)
Tampa Bay 7-9 (4-2)
Atlanta 5-11 (2-4)
New Orleans 4-12 (2-4)

NFC West
Arizona 10-6 (4-2)
Seattle 9-7 (5-1)
St. Louis 5-11 (2-4)
San Francisco 3-13 (1-5)

That makes the Wild Cards San Diego and Jacksonville in the AFC and Dallas and Washington in the NFC.

Breakout players: Philip Rivers and Cedric Benson.

You'll note the AFC is the stronger conference still, and once again there aren't too many teams in the 7-9 to 9-7 range, as the rift between good teams and bad teams remains fairly pronounced.

You're Welcome.

Good stuff, couple of changes i would make is seattle winning their division and the cowboys winning their divsion with the giants taking 2nd place.

 

[AllabouttheVinces]

Nice job, dryheat. Not sure about your San Diego prediction, though. 11 wins with a first-time QB? I think San Diego is in for a fall this year. Too tough a division, and Rivers needs some time to grow. Also, you must think that Carson Palmer will be ready to start the season. That was a devastating injury. He's a great kid and a tremendous QB, so I hope you're right about him. I'm not so optimistic, and without Kitna to back him up, I think Cinci comes back to the pack a bit.

On the way up: Miami has to improve, with the cake schedule. I like your Arizona pick, it's finally their time. I like Detroit to break .500, with Harrington gone, a new coach, and a good free agent group.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Please save this and re-post just after Week 17. It will be good for a laugh. No offense - anybody's predictions from the summer would be. But ARIZONA??? Okay I see the talent at the skill positions. But still... ARIZONA?

PFnV

PS, if Arizona does do okay, feel free to post this as well.

 

[PlattsFan]

JAX wins the AFC South. You heard it here first.

 

[Kdo5]

What? Huh? How in the world can the Dolphins NOT do better than last season? They got Culpepper! That means at least one more win!!! Meanwhile, the Pats lost Duane Starks and Tyrone Poole! They have NO defense left!

Lol...I know it sounds ******ed but hey....the Raiders defense could turn out better with Poole and Starks. If they arent injured. And ofcourse thats asking a lot. Starks may be going downhill...or did he just have an off season with some injuries? I really have no clue what will happen with Poole as I havent seem him play the majority of the games from two seasons. If hes fine...who knows...he seemed to play pretty well before those injuries. I dont think either of them or great but I wont be suprised if they do pretty decent out in Oakland.

But ofcourse...I'd much rather have Hobbs, Samuel and Gay as the corners. :singing:

 

[T-ShirtDynasty]

Lol...I know it sounds ******ed but hey....the Raiders defense could turn out better with Poole and Starks. If they arent injured. And ofcourse thats asking a lot. Starks may be going downhill...or did he just have an off season with some injuries? I really have no clue what will happen with Poole as I havent seem him play the majority of the games from two seasons. If hes fine...who knows...he seemed to play pretty well before those injuries. I dont think either of them or great but I wont be suprised if they do pretty decent out in Oakland.

But ofcourse...I'd much rather have Hobbs, Samuel and Gay as the corners. :singing:

That doesn't sound stupid at all... man, when Poole is healthy, he is a great corner. Too bad that almost never happened for us. Starks, pffft, who knows... if he was as messed up physically as the reports indicate, he could rebound to be a decent corner too. Crapshoots on both guys, but sure it could happen. I still think Poole's biggest question is his heart.... I don't think he's got the heart for this game.

And count me in on the Hobbs, Samuel, Gay (and Poteat) bandwagon.


Dryheat... thank god. You almost saved me from watching an entire season of football. Unfortunately, you didn't mention the scores in the games on your .txt file, so I'm gonna have to plod my way through the season, glued to the TV, as usual.

 

[primetime]

San Francisco wins the Brady Quinn derby, huh?

 

[Tunescribe]

The thing about this is that it's too logical. There are always odd things that happen throwing some teams totally out of whack, while others play much better than expected and seemingly come out of nowhere. But I agree, re-post it in week 17. Don't forget!

 

[HEY BRO! WHAT UP?]

"experts" seem to forget how much easier the Pats schedule is this year and they still pick the Pats to go from 10-6 at worst to 11-5 at best. The Pats will stampede through the East and make a serious run to the Superbowl. Chad Jackson will be better than Givens. Jackson reminds me of Chad Johnson, not because of the similiarities with the name but their style of play and how each of them slipped into the early second round. The D-Line will be a force and good luck to whoever tries to run on them. Tom Brady will be Tom Brady. Maroney will give the Pats a spark of the bench and now the Pats have great depth at running back unlike last season. O-Line has key returners along with Kaczer and Mankins getting valuable experience. Harrison will be back and prove to that he still a great safety.

I seriously think the Pats will go any where between 12-4 and 14-2. Their schedule is that soft. The only games I will worry about is: Broncos, Bengals, Colts, at Dolphins, Jaguars, and maybe the Vikings. By the time the Jags game rolls around the Pats may already have the East crown therefore "practicing plays" if you will instead of taking the game seriously ala Dolphins at Pats in week 17 last season.

My prediction for the AFC Title game: Bengals at Pats - Begnals were a force before Palmer blew out his knee and might have beaten the Steelers had he played the whole game. The first play of the game really indicated how aggressive the Bengals intended to be. I also love how Palmer said he hates the Steelers. Their two match-ups will be fun to watch.

NFC Title game: Carolina at Dallas - T.O. will make Bledsoe a pro bowl QB this season. Lanes will open up for the ground game and the Defense looks rock solid. I really belive the 'boys will turn into the Eagles of '04 season and make a serious run at the NFC title. Carolina, although I think they are overrated a little bit, I don't see anyother team that can compete with them. I eliminated Seatle because of the simple fact that when you have a bullseye on your back, it's difficult to win most games. However, Carolina will have a great D, and DeAngelo Williams will carry the load if Foster gets injured AGAIN!

Superbowl prediction: Patriots vs. Cowboys - Oh yeah! This match-up would be the ultimate showdown. Parcells vs. Belicheck, T.O. vs. Ty Law?, Bledsoe vs. Brady. If I were ESPN, ABC, NBC, or what ever network the superbowl is on this year, if you want storylines than these two teams give you just that.

 

[HEY BRO! WHAT UP?]

JAX wins the AFC South. You heard it here first.

You could very well be right. When Indy doesn't have a ground game, teams will get to tee-off on Manning. We will see how good Manning really is when his second most dependable weapon isn't there anymore. A QB's best friend is a RB. In fact, they lost Thornton and Tripplett, two guys that had pretty good seasons. If JAX wants to win the South now, here is their chance.

 

[coltshater]

My prediction:

Patriots 12-4
Bills 8-8
Dolphins 8-8
Jets 7-9

Of course we all know who the AFC East champion of the off-season is...

I can't wait for the regular season to start.

 

[JoeSixPat]

I heard Boomer Esiason on WEEI this morning and he said that as the team is now constituted he views us as a 10 win team - which surprised me because I just don't see losing 6 games assuming normal injury attrition.

He then said that if a few things go right he sees us with 12 wins and doing some real damage in the playoffs.

My gut says 12 wins too.

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

And here I thought I had too much time on my hands.....

I guess I have a little too much on my hands too. Dryheat, You need to tweak it a little bit b/c as it exists now, you have two more wins than losses 257 v 255 and they have to equal out. Take one win away from a team (which becomes a loss) and it works out.
Make it Pittsburgh for conversation's sake and call it the Big Ben factor. Call me a pessimist but I don't think he's back for a long time in spite of the titanium plates. There are issues of healing and strength and couple that with a very interesting off-season and I think they're ripe for a fall commonly associated with teams that lose the Super Bowl.....(see Eagles 2005 for reference and just keep going back,Carolina Oakland, St. Louis)
Just my $0.02,