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"As many good TEs"? Smith has shown, to borrow a phrase from Jim Mora, diddly-poo. Watson can't hang onto the ball. The WRs, on the other hand, are making plays. Let's say, just for argument's sake, that Belichick is keeping the two vets Galloway and Lewis (along with Moss and Welker). Of the group of five players--Aiken, Edelman, Nunn, Watson, and Alex Smith--he only keeps three of them. Wouldn't you prefer he keep the first three, and not the last two? True, those back-end WRs may not be as good at blocking as Smith or Watson, but they seem to have more pass-catching potential. And the O-line has a history of pass-blocking well*, and Brady is a quick decision-maker.
*not counting the Game that Shall Not Be Named
Smith is damn good for a fourth tight end. He'd be #2 on a fair number of teams in the NFL. He has value. The whole "Watson can't hang onto the ball" thing is so overblown that at this point i pretty much just ignore anyone who keeps on maintaining it. His hands aren't great, but they're marginally below average at worst. He's developed into a sufficient blocker, he lines up as a WR in 4 receiver sets, and he's a big target in the middle. If you were expecting him to turn into Tony Gonzalez, then that's your problem, not his. And no, I wouldn't rather have Nunn, Edelman, or Lewis than Watson. Watson's better than all of those guys.
Going with 2 TEs would leave us one injury away from being unable to run 2TE formations, which is just ridiculous. Add in that Dave Thomas is our fullback now that Heath Evans is gone, and that the Pats carried an extra RB last year because a RB was a fullback then, and there's simply no way that we only carry 2 TEs. It would be about as smart as carrying 3 OTs or 3 safeties--there's just absolutely no reason to do it when the guy that you would be cutting is a legitimate NFL player. ESPECIALLY when you're talking about cutting him for a #7 WR.... wtf is your #7 WR going to do? He'll be exclusively a STer anyways, considering that we rarely have even 4 actual WRs on the field at the same time.
I'll actually flip it on you and ask you the following: What does Greg Lewis bring to the table that's so special? FWIW, I have the Pats keeping 6 WR (Moss, Welker, Galloway, Edelman, Aiken, Nunn) and 3 TE (Watson, Thomas, Baker). If Watson gets traded, then Smith makes the team.
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