Expect Brandon Lloyd to be more productive

[PatsSweFan]

Yesterday it looked like Lloyd was first read only two or three times, he was open on short routes handful of times but Brady went with Hernadez or Welker and completed on those occasion. He had a nice spin route on 3rd and 6th mid first Q in what could have been a walk in TD but Dolphins D came trough and forced a throw away.

First 5-6 games at least we saw the back shoulder throw 2-3 times a game and it worked quite well, not seen it at all last games

 

[Deus Irae]

Just wanted to point out that a look at the season explains quite a bit. In the games where Llllllllllloyd was getting targeted, the Patriots were losing. In fact, his 3 highest catch games were the team's 3 losses, and the team was averaging 31ppg in those first 6 games. Since the Seattle game, he's been lower down on Brady's read list. The result has been 6-0 with a 40ppg average.

It's possible that they've overcorrected, but the offense has been running much smoother since they stopped forcing the ball to Lllllllllllllllllllloyd. Let him make his catches in the flow of the game. He's still on pace for about 67 receptions, which is right around the 70 I think a lot of people were expecting. Even if he finishes with 60 instead of 70, I don't think we'll all have to break out the crying towels.

 

[bagwell368]

Brady was dinged for concentrating too much on Lloyd early in the year.

As the year has moved on this is what we know, Brady trusts Gronk, AH, and Welker. He looks for them and passes to them. Edelman and perhaps Woodhead could be seen as more desirable targets in Brady's mind as well.

Lloyd seems in these last few games to be in group of guys that Brady will go to occasionally such as Vereen, Branch and the other TE's, but in no way could be construed as a main target.

Lloyd (outside of the deep ball) is more like Stallworth in 2007 in terms of being a target - a secondary guy.

This is something none of us wanted. He doesn't seem nearly as clueless as Ocho, but maybe there is a reason Lloyd has played for so many teams (6 in 10 years).

I expect ~3 catches per game out of him the rest of the year. Maybe another off season will improve things - sure as hell hope so. The frequent injuries to Edelman, and possible loss of Welker could really put an emphasis on Lloyd next year. Or fear of that could help drive BB in going after Welker, which did not appear to be his plan coming into this season.

 

[chasa]

Lloyd will start getting more targets when he stops having to do some sort of circus catch each time he tries to catch the ball.

YAC: Total/Average

Llyod: 126 / 2.52
Welker: 489 / 5.3
Gronk: 305 / 5.7
Hernadez: 81 / 3
Woodhead: 197 / 7.5
Edleman: 136 / 6.4

It seems like Llyod cant make the simple catch, he can only make the hard ones, and i think brady's faith has been tarnished a bit because of it. you cant expect lloyd to make a catch and then break a tackle, so teh only times hes going to get targeted are when he beats coverage deep, or when he runs a sideline out pattern for a first down.

 

[PP2]

First 5-6 games at least we saw the back shoulder throw 2-3 times a game and it worked quite well, not seen it at all last games

May have something to do with the fact that the Fins put their best CB (Sean Smith) on him.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Brady was dinged for concentrating too much on Lloyd early in the year.

As the year has moved on this is what we know, Brady trusts Gronk, AH, and Welker. He looks for them and passes to them. Edelman and perhaps Woodhead could be seen as more desirable targets in Brady's mind as well.

Lloyd seems in these last few games to be in group of guys that Brady will go to occasionally such as Vereen, Branch and the other TE's, but in no way could be construed as a main target.

Lloyd (outside of the deep ball) is more like Stallworth in 2007 in terms of being a target - a secondary guy.

This is something none of us wanted. He doesn't seem nearly as clueless as Ocho, but maybe there is a reason Lloyd has played for so many teams (6 in 10 years).

I expect ~3 catches per game out of him the rest of the year. Maybe another off season will improve things - sure as hell hope so. The frequent injuries to Edelman, and possible loss of Welker could really put an emphasis on Lloyd next year. Or fear of that could help drive BB in going after Welker, which did not appear to be his plan coming into this season.

Only change I'd make is to say he was dinged after being forced by game plan and roster decisions to concentrate on Lloyd early in the season. I said then and I still believe that whole lets find out what we got without Welker and Branch crap that went on early likely cost them a couple of games. And that's not a sound trade off given the importance of every game for a variety of reasons, including troublesome injuries later on, once the bell rings. That's what camp and pre season are for. Especially in an offense where it's been proven time and again assimilation isn't a given and it takes time and it simply can't be forced.

 

[neuronet]

Brady had an uncharacteristically bad game yesterday, and if film review has led him to the conclusion that looking to Lloyd will help to avoid more games like that, then that's good news.

The problem is Brady has been saying this stuff since June, for instance in an article I was promoting in its own thread:
http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/10/922043-great-article-about-lloyd.html

It was all about 'Wow he is open but I don't even see it.'

This suggests something is wrong. I don't know who to blame, maybe it is just the two of them failing to develop chemistry, but at this point they should be clicking into place, not deteriorating.

Nowhere near the disappointment level of Ochostinko. If that was a 10 in disappointment (which it was), this is a 6.

 

[ThatllMoveTheChains!!!]

Just wanted to point out that a look at the season explains quite a bit. In the games where Llllllllllloyd was getting targeted, the Patriots were losing. In fact, his 3 highest catch games were the team's 3 losses, and the team was averaging 31ppg in those first 6 games. Since the Seattle game, he's been lower down on Brady's read list. The result has been 6-0 with a 40ppg average.

It's possible that they've overcorrected, but the offense has been running much smoother since they stopped forcing the ball to Lllllllllllllllllllloyd. Let him make his catches in the flow of the game. He's still on pace for about 67 receptions, which is right around the 70 I think a lot of people were expecting. Even if he finishes with 60 instead of 70, I don't think we'll all have to break out the crying towels.

C/N: Offensive struggles seem more closely tied to the total targets going to the Pats' top 4 opposed to just Lloyd.

I think linking the losses to Lloyd is a bit of a stretch; in the first 6 they had 3 close games losing each and in the second 6 they had 3 close games winning each. I have a hard time believing targeting Lloyd less magically made the D come up with big turnovers to close out the Buf and NYJ games or caused them to have their best game of the season this last Sunday.

The points part is a bit more intriguing to me so I decided to take a bit of a deeper look at that. The Pats have definitely improved on offense both quicker and more dramatically than they have typically over the course of the season, and Lloyd receiving a more ideal number of targets seems to be a big reason for this. However the offensive struggles seem far more related to the total targets that the Pats' top receivers get, and the offensive explosions seem tied more closely to TOs by the defense.

In the Pats' 3 worse offensive performances they targeted their four top receivers 44, 34 (AH injured), and 32 (Gronk out) times (tops for the season). Lloyd received more than his average targets in 2 of the 3 and less in the other. Welker received more than his average in 2 of the 3 as well and his average in the other. Gronk received his average number in both he played in. AH received more than his average in the two he wasn't injured in (one was very close to average though).

In the Pats' 3 best offensive performances they created 6, 5, and 4 TOs.

Just for reference (bold = worse O perf);
Welkers Targets by game:

1. 1
2. 11
3. 10
4. 11
5. 15
6. 14
7. 8
8. 9
9. 11
10. 11
11. 10
12. 18

Lloyd's:

1. 8
2. 13
3. 12
4. 7
5. 5
6. 12
7. 8
8. 4
9. 6
10. 7
11. 5
12. 1

 

[Deus Irae]

The problem is Brady has been saying this stuff since June, for instance in an article I was promoting in its own thread:
http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/10/922043-great-article-about-lloyd.html

It was all about 'Wow he is open but I don't even see it.'

This suggests something is wrong. I don't know who to blame, maybe it is just the two of them failing to develop chemistry, but at this point they should be clicking into place, not deteriorating.

Nowhere near the disappointment level of Ochostinko. If that was a 10 in disappointment (which it was), this is a 6.

Lllllllllllllllloyd doesn't get "open" in the same manner, or time span, that the other receivers do. Llllllllllllllloyd is "open" when he's got body position, whereas the other other receivers are open when they've got either separation or an angle that's going to guarantee that separation on the throw. Since it takes Llllllllllllllllllloyd longer to get that body position than it does for Welker to get separation, waiting on Lllllllllllllllllllloyd puts more pressure on a banged up offensive line.

I don't think it's a coincidence that the Patriots had only allowed 2 sacks in the 5 games prior to the Dolphins game, and that's the same game range where Lllllllllllllloyd's numbers have dropped. I don't know that it's all because of the QB/WR and not also a product of line issues.

 

[NYCPatsFan]

The problem is Brady has been saying this stuff since June, for instance in an article I was promoting in its own thread:
http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/10/922043-great-article-about-lloyd.html

It was all about 'Wow he is open but I don't even see it.'

This suggests something is wrong. I don't know who to blame, maybe it is just the two of them failing to develop chemistry, but at this point they should be clicking into place, not deteriorating.

Nowhere near the disappointment level of Ochostinko. If that was a 10 in disappointment (which it was), this is a 6.

I think BSR's comment in your prior thread (that you quoted) gives a great insight into your 'something is wrong' theory.

 

[AzPatsFan]

Oh, he did that on multiple occasions. The problem is when a guy is open but he's not where he was supposed to be or a guy is open late but under pressure a decision had to be made that led the QB elsewhere. Brady was under pressure pretty consistently for most of that game yesterday. Sacked 4 times, probably knocked down immediately after releasing the ball half a dozen more times, and he bought just enough time on a couple of more occasions. He also was operating under the asssumption (game plan per Bedard) that we were not going to attempt to run the ball much in the first half and attempt to balance it out in the second half after wearing the Dolphins DL down a bit. So he had to target guys he trusted to move the chains. One problem was those guys weren't sufficiently focused or reliable early on although that seemed to improve as the game unfolded.

Brady had little choice by design in the first month of the season when the playcalling was forcing issues surrounding Lloyd and Edelman, and that didn't work out nearly as well as hoped. Hopefully Branch is healing and they can bring him back because while he may not be quick he is savvy and Brady trusts him and he'd be on fresh legs down the stretch.

I think a lot of people looked at Lloyd's production with lesser QB's and assumed with Brady he would at least equal if not exceed it. Trouble is while he produced numbers when targeted consistently those numbers didn't help those teams win... Similar to the situation with Gaffney in Washington, which is apparently why they didn't retain him.

When Brady is under pressure he throws the ball to the first receivers open and that is the short routes like Welker.

Brady will throw to LLoyd when he has the lack of pressure, to allow him to do it.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Didn't want to start another thread on this topic but Bingo has called Lloyd out tomorrow evening based on his observations and understanding of this offense...

Bedard has made similar observations about Lloyd not being physical and the whole go to ground mentality. He also contended he believed Lloyd has been talked to before and would be talked to again this week. Troy said he expected BB to be all over Lloyd this week to get off the jam and find a way to make some plays.

“The (Texans) are going to do everything they can to try and take Wes (Welker) away. So (Lloyd) is going to have to show up, and make some plays. It’s the type of game he’s going to have to play well if they want to be successful. He’s no longer playing Rams football. He has to come to play.”

Did Brown suspect Brady had lost any confidence in Lloyd, targeting him only once last week?

“He’s got to have a level of confidence . . . he has very high expectations when you’re on the field,” Brown said of Brady’s standards. “He’s tolerable of a lot of things. But he’s not going to settle for anything less than what your best is, or what he feels he can get out of you. That’s just the way he operates. He’s not going to just throw to anybody. He’s going to throw to the players he can depend on.

“How many times did he throw to Welker? What was he targeted 18 times?” Brown added, referring to Welker’s total against the Dolphins compared to Lloyd’s one target. “That’s dependability. There were times he had two guys on him, and that ball was still going to him.”

A lackluster Lloyd raises Brown’s ire - BostonHerald.com

 

[JoeSixPat]

According to TB on D&C this AM he said he watched tape and saw that "Brandon was open frequently". He said he needs to do a better job of getting him the ball. With Edelman limping and Gronk out until the playoffs I bet he looks his way more. This is great because when everyone is back for the playoffs hopefully then offense truly kicks into high gear.

I expect that's what he's hearing from his coaches - especially McDaniels.

Back in 2007 I thought too much focus on Moss and Welker became a liability in the playoffs - and more or less it did.

In other years I've felt like the lack of a deep game allowed defenses to collapse and make things tougher on Brady down the stretch - and more or less it did.

The question is, how much of that is playcalling by the OC and how much is Brady picking his options - and defaulting to his favorites. I don't have an answer but I think a lot falls on Brady picking his options.

Having Brady look for Lloyd more - especially deep - which may be a good way to attack the Texans - will only open up the offense more for Brady in the playoffs, keeping Defenses honest.

Obviously the weather will play into playcalling against the Texans, but a wet field can often be an advantage for the offense as well. I'd be surprised if you didn't see more than a few deep attempts against Houston - in particular with Lloyd as the beneficiary.

 

[JoeSixPat]

C/N: Offensive struggles seem more closely tied to the total targets going to the Pats' top 4 opposed to just Lloyd.

I think linking the losses to Lloyd is a bit of a stretch; in the first 6 they had 3 close games losing each and in the second 6 they had 3 close games winning each. I have a hard time believing targeting Lloyd less magically made the D come up with big turnovers to close out the Buf and NYJ games or caused them to have their best game of the season this last Sunday.

The points part is a bit more intriguing to me so I decided to take a bit of a deeper look at that. The Pats have definitely improved on offense both quicker and more dramatically than they have typically over the course of the season, and Lloyd receiving a more ideal number of targets seems to be a big reason for this. However the offensive struggles seem far more related to the total targets that the Pats' top receivers get, and the offensive explosions seem tied more closely to TOs by the defense.

In the Pats' 3 worse offensive performances they targeted their four top receivers 44, 34 (AH injured), and 32 (Gronk out) times (tops for the season). Lloyd received more than his average targets in 2 of the 3 and less in the other. Welker received more than his average in 2 of the 3 as well and his average in the other. Gronk received his average number in both he played in. AH received more than his average in the two he wasn't injured in (one was very close to average though).

In the Pats' 3 best offensive performances they created 6, 5, and 4 TOs.

Just for reference (bold = worse O perf);
Welkers Targets by game:

1. 1
2. 11
3. 10
4. 11
5. 15
6. 14
7. 8
8. 9
9. 11
10. 11
11. 10
12. 18

Lloyd's:

1. 8
2. 13
3. 12
4. 7
5. 5
6. 12
7. 8
8. 4
9. 6
10. 7
11. 5
12. 1

So what you're saying is, if we're to use Deus' application of logic and statistics, Wes Welker is the weak link in our offense.

Well done! :singing:

 

[Deus Irae]

So what you're saying is, if we're to use Deus' application of logic and statistics, Wes Welker is the weak link in our offense.

Well done! :singing:

No, what he's saying is that he didn't actually understand my post, because he confused "targeting" with "targets", when they are not the same thing.

 

[JoeSixPat]

No, what he's saying is that he didn't actually understand my post, because he confused "targeting" with "targets", when they are not the same thing.

Feel free to clarify. I'm interested in how you can know who Brady is targeting - aside from who he throws to as a target.

 

[Deus Irae]

Feel free to clarify. I'm interested in how you can know who Brady is targeting - aside from who he throws to as a target.

No, you're not, because you already know the difference, since my post was pretty self-explanatory. You're interested in getting a bite. That's fine.

Targeting means that you're consistently looking first for one player and going to others as secondary outlets. In the case of Lloyd, targeting him means holding the ball longer while waiting for him to come open, because he's not a separation guy.


"Targets" is just the number of throws.

 

[BananaRepublican]

We have a Offense that have guys that can get open quickly...Lloyd is not one if them.

And how did you determine this "fact"?

We already know Lloyd doesn't separate via speed. He is actually a very different style receiver who succeeds by juking and out leaping people. So perhaps this is a trust issue with Tom, not a "separation" issue. If you just have an opinion, fine, but the way you're talking you seem to have studied coach's tape. Did you? Do you actually know what you're watching?

 

[BananaRepublican]

how much is Brady picking his options - and defaulting to his favorites.

Yes .... .... ...

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

I expect Lloyd to step up big monday night...1 maybe 2 TDs