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Even if we win the SB we will have the fourth best draft position

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by TheGodInAGreyHoodie, Jan 8, 2011.

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  1. TheGodInAGreyHoodie

    TheGodInAGreyHoodie Rookie

    Nov 12, 2007
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    As you are probably aware...there is a chart that purportedly assigns a value to each draft pick.

    NFL draft-pick value chart - NFL - ESPN

    Being bored I took the chart and copied it into excel and played with it.

    If we ignore compensatory picks we find that in theory the team that picks first has significantly more value in their picks (4043.2) than the team that wins the SB and picks #32 (1067). In fact the sum total of all seven of the SB winners picks equals about the same as the 15th pick overall (1050). On average each team gets 1898.675.

    Here is what each team starts with....

    1	4043.2
    2	3612.4
    3	3191.6
    4	2770.8
    5	2650.5
    6	2530.2
    7	2409.9
    8	2291.6
    9	2223.3
    10	2155
    11	2086.7
    12	2018.4
    13	1950.1
    14	1881.8
    15	1813.5
    16	1745.2
    17	1676.9
    18	1608.6
    19	1565.4
    20	1522.2
    21	1454
    22	1415.8
    23	1377.6
    24	1340.6
    25	1302.2
    26	1264
    27	1227.8
    28	1191.6
    29	1157.4
    30	1123.2
    31	1089.1
    32	1067
    For this exercise I assumed NE won the SB and the Saints lost the SB. The worst case for picks value. But clearly best case from a team perspective.

    This is what NE has

    1st Round โ€“ #17 (OAK โ€“ Richard Seymour)	950
    1st Round โ€“ #32*	590
    2nd Round โ€“ #33 (CAR โ€“ 2010 3rd Round)	580
    2nd Round โ€“ #64*	270
    3rd Round โ€“ #74 (MIN โ€“ Randy Moss)	220
    3rd Round โ€“ #96*	116
    4th Round	44
    5th Round	28.4
    6th Round (NO โ€“ David Thomas)	16
    Total	2814.4
    When you take away the traded away picks of Carolina they fall to #2 behind Denver (who also traded away 2 picks but is still in first place) leaving the following order for most points: (computing the exact numbers would be a pain because of the rotation, but it accounts for very small number changes)

    New England

    Oakland comes in last.
  2. Ice_Ice_Brady

    Ice_Ice_Brady Rookie

    Apr 3, 2006
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    This chart is completely outdated and doesn't take into account that teams now look for quality depth over superstars. Would you rather have the #1 overall pick, or #30, 31, 32, and 33? Every team in the NFL would rather have the bundle, and that's why this value chart is no longer relevant.

    We basically have two drafts, with two picks in each of the first three rounds, including three of the top 33.

    There is simply no way anyone could make a logical argument that ANY team is in better position for the 2011 draft.
    Last edited: Jan 8, 2011
  3. Dufflebagz

    Dufflebagz Rookie

    Sep 17, 2010
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    I could easily make that argument. I'm not going to compare real draft positions, just making an example. The Pats have two 1st rounders, two 2nd rounders, and two 3rd rounders. Lets say the Raiders have no 1st rounder, two 2nd rounders, and one 3rd rounder and the lets say the two teams have nearly the same amount of picks in rounds 4-7. It's pretty obvious the Pats are in a better position...doesn't mean they will have a better draft than Oakland but they are in a better position.
    Last edited: Jan 8, 2011
  4. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Jan 22, 2005
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    That's if you take team needs/talent available into account.

    In an absolute sense, you can argue that Carolina is in the best possible position, because they can draft anyone they want at #1 (or trade away if they get a good offer), and no one else can say that as of yet.

    But right now, given this team's needs, the Patriots are in an almost unprecedented situation.
  5. VJCPatriot

    VJCPatriot Rookie

    Apr 28, 2006
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    Owning Carolina's 2nd round pick looks HUGE right now. The Pats can either get the best player left from the original first round flurry of picks or auction it off to the highest bidder and get even more value for it. I'm sure BB will be fielding a ton of offers for that pick leading up to day 2.
  6. Schmo

    Schmo Rookie

    Mar 2, 2008
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    Great way to put it. I hadn't thought of it that way.

    It's a great way to build a team - by drafting platoons of players who are getting paid similar salaries; guys who expect to have tough competition going into camp. A JaMarcus Russell can ruin a team, a Lawrence Maroney can't.
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