ESPN:Is Tom Brady on the decline?

[Shockt327]

Tom Brady was among league's worst in 'bad passes' last season | masslive.com

I wasn't addressing his entire career, but the obvious decline of the past few years as being indicative of what he's going to do from hereon:

2011 season:

ProFootballFocus.com:

Passes of 20 or more yards
Left: 7-for-20, 232 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT (75.8 QB Rating)
Middle: 9-for-33, 300 yards, 4 TDs, 3 INTs (66.7)
Right: 7-for-15, 214 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs (132.6)

Passes of 10-19 yards
Left: 21-for-47, 351 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs (84.6)
Middle: 63-for-89, 1,298 yards, 14 TDs, 7 INTs (120)
Right: 17-for-26, 324 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT (105.3)

Passes of 0-9 yards
Left: 80-for-102, 754 yards, 7 TDs, 0 INTs (120.3)
Middle: 176-for-226, 1,784 yards, 11 TDs, 2 INTs (112.1)
Right: 47-for-66, 415 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT (86.4)

Look at the disparity between those numbers. Brady’s deep numbers were abysmal last season, and most his production came in the middle of the field where Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez live. That makes it safe to assume that most of Brady’s bad passes came on deep balls, where he was 23-for-68 (33 percent) last season.

This isn't anything new. In 2009, he was 18-for-69 (26 percent) on such passes, and 18-for-49 (36 percent) in 2010.

======================================

Tom Brady's missing deep ball - AFC East Blog - ESPN

The deep ball has been increasingly missing with Brady as he's gotten older. Since 2011, he's overthrown 12 of 19 attempts of 30 yards or more, which is the highest percentage (63.2) in the league, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

In addition, Brady completed just 50.5 percent of passes of 15 yards or more last season. Brady is still great at reading defenses and making the short and intermediate passes. But age and wear and tear is starting to create holes in Brady's deep passing game.

#########################################

Some of this decline might be due to bad deep options (I didn't see any coming in this off season either), and the shoulder/scope problems - but those issues are going to get worse, not better with age. We're talking effective deep passing, not excuses.

Utter nonsense.

1) You cherry picked 2011. That's not indicative of a decline. A decline is multiple year. Guess what? Brady's 2012 just fine. If you bothered to look at the stat sheet I posted, you'd see this. Tom Brady's deep ball isn't "declining." He had one bad year due to no deep talent. Last year he rebounded just fine. His numbers were comparable to Aaron Rodgers and Peyton....do they have bad deep passes too?

2) You obviously struggle to interpret a stat sheet if you think throwing at 20-30% on deep passes is even remotely poor. You've done nothing to compare Brady's stats to other QBs. Again, aaron and peyton do the same thing. Also, the numbers fluctuate far too greatly, year to year, to put too much stock in comp% for just one year. Far too small of a sample size.

3) Go take a look at the multiple charts I already posted....comparing Brady's deep stats to over QBs, longterm and just last year. The numbers fluctuate greatly, year-to-year, even among the elite.

 

[Shockt327]

First it PFF and therefore useless.

Compared to what, chicken bones?

Compared to what?

How about the stat sheets I already posted. Multiple players. Multiple years. Yeah, much better than you simply cherry picking an article about 2011, which doesn't post any other QB numbers for comparison.

Second, are you seriously telling me you don't realize every QBs success rate declines the farther downfield they throw?

What a stupid question.

Brady's downfield game is the least impressive part of his skill set, assuming we are not talking running the ball. BB has designed the passing game to maximize completion percentage, but, on those occasions when they have to go deeper to try and prove they are a threat, or when they are behind late, Brady isn't very good at it. Are you trying to tell me you haven't noticed it? Really?

LOL.

Hey genius. The numbers flat out say that you are wrong. Brady's deep ball numbers are perfectly in line with the others QBs. We're not just talking 2007 either. 2003 and 2004 were fantastic. Double digit deep completions in all three of those years. That's a standout season. Oh, and no deep threats in '03 or '04. Not many QBs can post double digit completions under those circumstances. Brady did.

You are embarassingly wrong, here.

 

[Shockt327]

Yeah, these charts need to be re-posted because clearly some people aren't taking a look at the actual numbers (like 'comp/attempts', for instance)......

If Brady isn't a good deep passer than I don't know where that leaves Peyton Manning or even Aaron Rodgers; cause Brady wasn't too far behind, if not on par with, both last year.

Oh, and he didn't have the deep threat the other two did.

Below I used "passes thrown" which is simply how far the ball was thrown in the air....

Pass Thrown	comp/att yrd	td/int

TFB
21-30 yds:	16/47	468	5/2 
31-40 yds:	6/15	256	3/1
41+ yds:	0/6	0	0/0

PM
21-30 yds:	19/43	554	6/4
31-40 yds:	7/18	289	3/1
41+ yds:	0/1	0	0/0

AR
21-30 yds:	15/38	434	8/1
31-40 yds:	5/9	216	3/0
41+ yds:	1/7	52	0/1

Guys, you can put the "eyesight test" aside and look at the raw numbers....

I went to ESPN's split-stats page and looked up PASSES THROWN. Again, it's an air yards stat that measures the distance of the pass. So anyway, you can see it for yourself. However, I noticed that the mere attempts for "41+ yards" or even "31-40" are so small (often times you'll see 0 completions or just 1 or 2 attempts) that I simply decided to combine them. Really, if a QB can merely crack double-digits in completion for an entire season, it's like, utterly elite; that's how barren the stat-lines are here. So my stat box down below is "31+ yards." I simply added-up the "31-40" and the "41+" on espn's stat sheet to make the numbers less barren.

I compared Brady to a bunch of active QBs with enough years behind them (the stat didn't start until '02). The results? Brady is a little weaker. But! My biggest observation, by far, is that these stats rise/fall based on who the QB is throwing too. Brady's stats trump anyone's once Moss came in '07. Peyton Manning? His stats were utterly dominant....until Marvin Harrison left Indy after 07, then they became pretty 'meh'. How about Eli? His numbers were great when he had Plax and Toomer in '06. Toomer got hurt in 07 and Plax went to jail the following year and Eli's stats fell off. Drew Bress? He was the most eye-opening. His stats in San Diego were awful; I guess that's what no WRs and Marty Ball will bring you, lol. Anyway, from the very first season in New Orleans Drew Brees has been utterly astounding. Like, total turnaround.

So, yeah, I really do think this stat has more to do with the QB's weapons rather than the QB himself (assuming he's good), because the stats seem to fluctuate too much.

Passes Thrown 31+ yards
Player
Yr:	Comp/Att Yrd	TD INT

Brady
'02: 	03/22 	117 	0 1
'03: 	12/31 	566 	5 3
'04: 	12/38 	507 	3 3
'05: 	06/27 	164 	3 1
'06: 	07/25 	314 	3 3
'07: 	13/30 	622 	8 2
'09: 	06/30 	284 	4 4
'10: 	05/19 	225 	3 2
'11: 	01/15 	046 	0 0
'12:	06/21	256	3 1

PManning
'02: 	08/30 	322 	3 4
'03: 	11/31 	449 	6 0
'04: 	11/22 	400 	8 1
'05: 	09/26 	355 	7 2
'06: 	13/31 	560 	3 0
'07: 	10/27 	452 	6 2
'08: 	07/28 	363 	3 4
'09: 	07/27 	327 	3 2
'10: 	08/25 	347 	3 1
'12:	7/19	256	3 1

Roethlisberger:
'04: 	09/25 	361 	3 3
'05: 	07/13 	315 	1 1
'06: 	03/19 	336 	2 6
'07: 	09/18 	378 	6 2
'08: 	07/24 	306 	3 2
'09: 	10/24 	455 	5 2
'10: 	09/19 	377 	4 1
'11: 	07/27 	385 	4 2
'12:	05/19	279	4 0

Vick
'02: 	06/30 	298 	3 1
'03: 	03/08 	131 	1 1
'04: 	04/22 	180 	2 1
'05: 	06/27 	274 	1 3
'06: 	06/38 	298 	0 1
'10: 	08/20 	427 	3 1
'11: 	07/21 	335 	2 4
'12:	04/21	204	1 2

Rivers:
'06: 	07/30 	289 	3 0
'07: 	04/21 	164 	1 2
'08: 	10/24 	465 	4 1
'09: 	11/35 	520 	1 2
'10: 	08/21 	407 	5 3
'11: 	09/31 	370 	6 4
'12:	05/28	198	2 2	

Rodgers:
'09: 	09/31 	437 	2 2
'10: 	08/24 	381 	4 4
'11: 	11/20 	526 	6 0
'12:	06/16	268	3 1

Flacco:
'08: 	08/31 	409 	4 3
'09: 	07/28 	300 	4 4
'10: 	08/23 	385 	3 0
'11: 	07/33 	289 	3 1
'12:	10/42	407	3 0

Eli
'05: 	05/30 	221 	0 3
'06: 	10/25 	414 	5 4
'07: 	06/29 	252 	3 2
'08: 	05/20 	186 	3 1
'09: 	08/22 	335 	2 1
'10: 	07/29 	328 	6 2
'11: 	11/35 	624 	3 1
'12:	10/27	459	5 1

Brees
'02:	5/24	217	2 3
'03:	3/16	96	2 3
'04:	2/15	197	3 0
'05:	7/17	284	1 2
'06:	11/19	553	7 2
'07:	7/20	286	3 1
'08:	14/32	741	6 2
'09:	9/25	335	7 2
'10:	8/26	372	3 4
'11:	10/21	442	6 1
'12:	13/33	584	4 3

Oh, in case the last chart is too hard to sift through, here are what the numbers for all the years average out too....

Again, Brady does rank on the low end. But we are splitting hairs. When all these QBs can barely even crack 10+ completions in an entire year, the difference between the averages is pretty small, overall.

Brady  	7.1 of	25.8	310.1 yrd	3.2 TD	2.0 INT

Peyton 	9.1 of	26.6	386.4 yrd	4.5 TD	1.7 INT

BigBen 	7.3 of	20.9	354.7 yrd	3.6 TD	2.1 INT

M Vick 	5.5 of	23.4	268.4 yrd	1.6 TD	1.8 INT

Rivers 	7.7 of	26.1	344.7 yrd	3.1 TD	2.0 INT

Rodgers	8.5 of	22.8	403.0 yrd	3.8 TD	1.8 INT

Flacco 	8.0 of	31.4	358.0 yrd	3.4 TD	1.6 INT

Eli M	7.8 of	27.1	352.4 yrd	3.4 TD	1.9 INT	

Brees	8.1 of	22.5	373.4 yrd	4.0 TD	2.1 INT

 

[bagwell368]

Obsessed much? Sounds like Brady boned your (you fill in the blank.)

I think Brady hit the top 7 All Time QB list after the '07 season. He's at worst #3 now IMO. How is that being obsessed? I'm just a long time fan (since '66) that knows what a decline looks like, and pretending it isn't an issue simply isn't the way I think or live. Have no idea what works for you, and I don't care. But do please rustle up more objectivity when addressing others, lest one risk sounding like a shallow fan-boy.

 

[bagwell368]

So, basically, you've got nothing, because that's what both PFF and CHFF brought to the table.

So that's the sum total of your argument? Negating a made argument with a snark and presenting nothing? That is up to your usual standards I must admit.

 

[Deus Irae]

So that's the sum total of your argument? Negating a made argument with a snark and presenting nothing? That is up to your usual standards I must admit.

There really wasn't anything more needed. You presented nothing of real probative value, and you clearly don't know what the hell you're talking about. In other words, your posts lived up to your usual standards.

 

[bagwell368]

Regarding CHFF and how they seemed to have changed their point of view, you are conflating viewpoints from two diametrically different writers. Don't forget that when CHFF first began most of the articles were written by Pats fan Kerry Byrne, who now spends much of his time as a food critic for the Herald; go and look at most of those 'before' links listed above and you will see that they were written by Byrne.

I am aware that they are different writers, on other sites I used Byrnes earlier pieces quite a few times. But when written, those articles presented fairly complete and logical pictures of Brady.

Scott Kacsmar now writes most of the articles for CHFF; he readily admits that his favorite player is Peyton Manning and his favorite team is the Steelers, and that soon becomes quite apparent if you happen to read any of his columns on a regular basis. He has long had a penchant for putting Brady down to implicitly pump Manning up, and has done the same with the Patriots as a whole in order to elevate the Steelers and Colts. Lo and behold, the links to the articles on CHFF that claim Brady is not very good or is overrated are written by Kacsmar.

We all have an axe to grind, but when there is data behind it, it's more important to the deal with the truth in the data, then the opinion of someone we disagree with.

BTW, when Brady was ducking shadows last year, did that show up in the metrics?

While all their numbers, statistics and writing style come across as indisputable and unbiased evidence, the fact is that it has never been that way at all. And while both Byrne and Kacsmar may indeed be 'serious' writers, let's not imply that they are not biased or share the same viewpoint simply because they write on the same website.

I never implied that they had the same POV. I merely imply that the data behind all those pieces are verifiable and make a good deal of sense.

 

[bagwell368]

Deep passes happen less than 2 times a game. No QB consistently completes a high percentage of them. Brady's deep throwing ability is as good as most any QB. When the receivers he is throwing to are not good deep receivers it will affect those numbers. The stats, broken down by who he is throwing to bear that out.

Well, if you consider Moss the last good deep player Brady had to throw too, than it's quite easy to write off everything since as the fault of the receiver. Do take a good look at the actual passes, I was thinking this for probably a 20 game stretch before it started being mentioned. It's not a mirage.

It's also not shameful. Montana at his peak couldn't throw a long pass as well as Brady. Staubach didn't throw that well deep either.

OTOH, Brady has declined, as his ability to evade rushers and run - and the decline in his long throws is another marker that he's getting older, and less adept at some things. The history of HOF QB's from age 35 onward (even cutting out the pre merger guys) isn't all that great.

QB longevity has gotten better over time, and Brady is liable to have 2-3 more great years, but if he plays 5 more, he's liable to be meh in one, and injured and/or meh in another. If he goes 5 more years in a row at 95+ QB Rating at 14+ games per season, and pulls a 10-5 in the playoffs with a 90 QB Rating and a SB win - well that's what we all want. I'd just be surprised if we get it all.

 

[bagwell368]

Your argument is copying one weak article?

There was a prior post with more. You might also get the actuarial tables out for HOF QB's and study the age 30-34 and 35-39 slices of games played and production, and point out all the guys that did better in the second half of their 30's. After that we can talk about Brady's operation, his ducking shadows, his shoulder scopes, and his inaccurate deep throws - on display the past couple of years for anybody with open eyes.

BTW I think Andy Johnson is a great handle. The guy that went over to glad hand Shula after a Pats loss.

 

[bagwell368]

Hey genius. The numbers flat out say that you are wrong. Brady's deep ball numbers are perfectly in line with the others QBs. We're not just talking 2007 either. 2003 and 2004 were fantastic. Double digit deep completions in all three of those years. That's a standout season. Oh, and no deep threats in '03 or '04. Not many QBs can post double digit completions under those circumstances. Brady did.

You are embarassingly wrong, here.

I'm talking declining skills, so 2003-04 go into the books as a baseline of what he was. Do you actually believe Brady today has the same capacity of 9-10 years ago? What is he now? Not as good. Watch the ball come out of his hand in 2011-12 and tell me it's as good as 2003-07. You can't. If you try, then you're a fan-boy with a stat sheet.

You are embarassingly insulated and self satisfied.

 

[bagwell368]

There really wasn't anything more needed. You presented nothing of real probative value, and you clearly don't know what the hell you're talking about. In other words, your posts lived up to your usual standards.

Give me a break, I have 100 posts a year, as if you've been paying attention. (Quick scramble through my prior posts to pretend that you've been keeping up).

Go get tape of Bradys long throws in 2011-12 vs 2003-07 and tell me that he has the same level of accuracy. Do you actually watch the games, or just comb stat sheets? Please - don't bother to justify yourself, I don't care.

What's next from this cadre of Brady fans? The "adult" version of my father can beat up your father?

 

[FirstAndGoal]

Never fear...Tim Tebow is here

 

[bagwell368]

40+ yard throws:

2007: 7-17, 366, 5 TD, 0 INT, 128.1 rating
2009: 3-17, 161, 3 TD, 2 INT, 66.5 rating
2010: 0-6, 0 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT, 0.0 rating
2011: 1-6, 46 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT, 59.0 rating
2012: 0-6, 0 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT, 0.0 rating

Lack of someone to throw too? Or lack of arm strength/accuracy? Probably both.

As to arguments talking about other QB's stats - I don't care - Brady set his own bar, he's being compared against himself to decide if he's in decline.

 

[Shockt327]

40+ yard throws:

2007: 7-17, 366, 5 TD, 0 INT, 128.1 rating
2009: 3-17, 161, 3 TD, 2 INT, 66.5 rating
2010: 0-6, 0 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT, 0.0 rating
2011: 1-6, 46 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT, 59.0 rating
2012: 0-6, 0 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT, 0.0 rating

Lol, so now you want to use just 41+ yards? Yeah, that'll be a big difference from the 31+ stats that I just posted, lol. Oh, wait. Nope. Looks like Rodgers’s and Peyton’s 41+ are still on par w/ Brady for 2012....same as they were at 31+. Yup, those stats really proved your point...

Rodgers: 1-7 52yrds 0TD 1INT 18.5rating
Peyton: 0-1 0yrds 0TD 0INT 39.6rating

BTW - you couldn't even get Brady's qb rating correct for 2012.

Lack of someone to throw too? Or lack of arm strength/accuracy? Probably both.

...and yet, his stats are still on par with two other elite QBs. That's kinda what happens with such a low sample size, genius. Even zero completions happens often.

As to arguments talking about other QB's stats - I don't care - Brady set his own bar, he's being compared against himself to decide if he's in decline.

LOL, so now we cannot compare Brady’s stats to others? Do you even realize you just contradicted yourself?

Hey genius, you initially cited that PFF article from 2011 that compared Brady to all the other NFL QBs. Funny how you didn't mind it then. Now? After I cited a ton of stats that show Brady's deep stats are on par with other QB's... Well, You suddenly claim such comparisons are irrelevant and you won't listen to them Lol, how convenient. Hypocrite.

So, yeah. Comparison does matter. You can't just cherry pick a rarely-cited stat and then try to judge it on its own. It pretty much goes without saying that you need *context.* Context matters. Big time. So, that aforementioned statistical context I just mentioned? It pretty much shows that Brady's 2012 season was perfectly in line with both Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning. Are they bad too? So much for your claim against Brady. He's fine.

 

[Shockt327]

I'm talking declining skills, so 2003-04 go into the books as a baseline of what he was. Do you actually believe Brady today has the same capacity of 9-10 years ago? What is he now? Not as good.

Uh, 9 to 10 years ago Brady wasn't even in his prime yet. So, yeah, Brady is drastically better today...by a large margin than in '03 and '04.

Let's take a minute to appreciate the logic here. Brady's 30+ or 40+ yard stats are better in '03 and '04 (so you'll acknowledge those stats). But the Tom Brady of today is dramatically better in virtually every other statistical category.....yet you are still trying to argue he's "declining." How come the alleged decline doesn't show up anywhere else statistically? Lol. Yeah, buddy. Way to cherry pick your stats.

Watch the ball come out of his hand in 2011-12 and tell me it's as good as 2003-07. You can't. If you try, then you're a fan-boy with a stat sheet.

You are embarassingly insulated and self satisfied.

Oh, the hypocrisy....

Insulated? You first tried to argue your point by cherry picking Brady's stats for just one year (2011) as they compared to other QBs. So Brady was last in 2011. But, when I countered by pointing out his 2012 stats were right on par with Manning and Rodgers; you then you suddenly did an about face and claimed that a comparison to other QBs doesn't matter. LOL, so your own, initial, point doesn't matter? Yeah, right. You are just cherry picking one year, then, paradoxically claiming that comparisons to other QBs are irrelevant. That alone is insulated thinking.

Then, you also tried to claim that you, personally, can tell that Brady is declining -- nevermind the stats -- because of the ways he throws the ball. Yeah, as if you're an expert. Of course, you don't know jack about QB mechanics; let alone pinpointing a decline, let alone a decline when the stats are still good. Yet, you are propping up your own fickle thoughts above those stats; even when they say otherwise. Talk about Self satisfied.....

 

[Rick Sanford 25]

While I agree with your overall point at the end, your presentation leaves a bit to be desired. 2005 was a bad game by Brady, no doubt. 2006 he should have put enough points on the board to win with what was at the time the worst receiving corps he's ever had, but Alexander couldn't cover Dallas Clark and Rodney was at home watching the game on TV. 2007 the O-Line lost Stephen Neal, Mankins got abused, and Kaczur couldn't block a JV high school DE. 2009 vs. the Ravens, that game was simply the end of the line for a team that was mediocre at best throughout the year (not to mention, Welker was out of the game). The 2010 AFC Divisional Playoff had a multitude of problems. The Jets took advantage of the mediocre corps of WR's by playing straight up press-man. As a result, only Welker could get a free release (sound familiar?). The OL broke down and the offense went pass heavy until it was away too late. Further, Gronk was being used primarily as a blocker throughout the game (how the team didn't manage to take advantage of a 6'7" match up nightmare is beyond me). On top of that, the defense was exposed once they couldn't get their hands on turnovers. In 2011, with the same crop of mediocre WR's outside of Welker and an injured Gronk, Brady set the record for most consecutive completions in the Super Bowl and had the game in hand until Welker dropped a back breaking pass deep in Giants territory. Then, the bad pass defense did what they've been doing since 2006: gave up the game-winning drive. 2012 was more of the same.

In all, it's hard to put all those games on Brady. He didn't play up to par, but the pass defenses get tougher in the playoffs. In those losses, he had plenty of help.

While he had plenty of help, he directed an offense that averaged 13 points a game in playoff/Super Bowl losses. The only losses where the Pats scored more than 17 points was the AFC Champonship game against the Colts and they benefited from a long kickoff return and pick 6, and in the Jets game they scored a late soft touchdown.

2005 Broncos 13 points scored
2006 Colts 34 points scored
2007 Giants 14 points (record offensive year)
2009 Ravens 14 points
2010 Jets 21 points (garbage time touchdown)
2011 Giants 17 points
2012 Ravens 13 points

Right or wrong, QB's are judged by how many points their team scored.

One factoid about Manning that never gets mentioned is that in the final 4 minutes of 5 playoff games (Dolphins 2000, Chargers 2007/08, Jets 2010 and Broncos 2012) he left the field with the lead and his defense either lost the lead or had the game tied. Yet the losses are always thrown on his ledger.