ESPN:Is Tom Brady on the decline?

[Shockt327]

Guys, you can put the "eyesight test" aside and look at the raw numbers....

I went to ESPN's split-stats page and looked up PASSES THROWN. Again, it's an air yards stat that measures the distance of the pass. So anyway, you can see it for yourself. However, I noticed that the mere attempts for "41+ yards" or even "31-40" are so small (often times you'll see 0 completions or just 1 or 2 attempts) that I simply decided to combine them. Really, if a QB can merely crack double-digits in completion for an entire season, it's like, utterly elite; that's how barren the stat-lines are here. So my stat box down below is "31+ yards." I simply added-up the "31-40" and the "41+" on espn's stat sheet to make the numbers less barren.

I compared Brady to a bunch of active QBs with enough years behind them (the stat didn't start until '02). The results? Brady is a little weaker. But! My biggest observation, by far, is that these stats rise/fall based on who the QB is throwing too. Brady's stats trump anyone's once Moss came in '07. Peyton Manning? His stats were utterly dominant....until Marvin Harrison left Indy after 07, then they became pretty 'meh'. How about Eli? His numbers were great when he had Plax and Toomer in '06. Toomer got hurt in 07 and Plax went to jail the following year and Eli's stats fell off. Drew Bress? He was the most eye-opening. His stats in San Diego were awful; I guess that's what no WRs and Marty Ball will bring you, lol. Anyway, from the very first season in New Orleans Drew Brees has been utterly astounding. Like, total turnaround.

So, yeah, I really do think this stat has more to do with the QB's weapons rather than the QB himself (assuming he's good), because the stats seem to fluctuate too much.

Passes Thrown 31+ yards
Player
Yr:	Comp/Att Yrd	TD INT

Brady
'02: 	03/22 	117 	0 1
'03: 	12/31 	566 	5 3
'04: 	12/38 	507 	3 3
'05: 	06/27 	164 	3 1
'06: 	07/25 	314 	3 3
'07: 	13/30 	622 	8 2
'09: 	06/30 	284 	4 4
'10: 	05/19 	225 	3 2
'11: 	01/15 	046 	0 0
'12:	06/21	256	3 1

PManning
'02: 	08/30 	322 	3 4
'03: 	11/31 	449 	6 0
'04: 	11/22 	400 	8 1
'05: 	09/26 	355 	7 2
'06: 	13/31 	560 	3 0
'07: 	10/27 	452 	6 2
'08: 	07/28 	363 	3 4
'09: 	07/27 	327 	3 2
'10: 	08/25 	347 	3 1
'12:	7/19	256	3 1

Roethlisberger:
'04: 	09/25 	361 	3 3
'05: 	07/13 	315 	1 1
'06: 	03/19 	336 	2 6
'07: 	09/18 	378 	6 2
'08: 	07/24 	306 	3 2
'09: 	10/24 	455 	5 2
'10: 	09/19 	377 	4 1
'11: 	07/27 	385 	4 2
'12:	05/19	279	4 0

Vick
'02: 	06/30 	298 	3 1
'03: 	03/08 	131 	1 1
'04: 	04/22 	180 	2 1
'05: 	06/27 	274 	1 3
'06: 	06/38 	298 	0 1
'10: 	08/20 	427 	3 1
'11: 	07/21 	335 	2 4
'12:	04/21	204	1 2

Rivers:
'06: 	07/30 	289 	3 0
'07: 	04/21 	164 	1 2
'08: 	10/24 	465 	4 1
'09: 	11/35 	520 	1 2
'10: 	08/21 	407 	5 3
'11: 	09/31 	370 	6 4
'12:	05/28	198	2 2	

Rodgers:
'09: 	09/31 	437 	2 2
'10: 	08/24 	381 	4 4
'11: 	11/20 	526 	6 0
'12:	06/16	268	3 1

Flacco:
'08: 	08/31 	409 	4 3
'09: 	07/28 	300 	4 4
'10: 	08/23 	385 	3 0
'11: 	07/33 	289 	3 1
'12:	10/42	407	3 0

Eli
'05: 	05/30 	221 	0 3
'06: 	10/25 	414 	5 4
'07: 	06/29 	252 	3 2
'08: 	05/20 	186 	3 1
'09: 	08/22 	335 	2 1
'10: 	07/29 	328 	6 2
'11: 	11/35 	624 	3 1
'12:	10/27	459	5 1

Brees
'02:	5/24	217	2 3
'03:	3/16	96	2 3
'04:	2/15	197	3 0
'05:	7/17	284	1 2
'06:	11/19	553	7 2
'07:	7/20	286	3 1
'08:	14/32	741	6 2
'09:	9/25	335	7 2
'10:	8/26	372	3 4
'11:	10/21	442	6 1
'12:	13/33	584	4 3

 

[NEPettyOfficer72]

That deep ball argument is such BS. In recent years almost every QB has had better deep threats than Brady. Julian Edelman,Branch, Ochostinko,Lloyd,Tate - none are guys with any real speed or size to make plays down the field.

His deep ball is still very accurate, and perhaps the most accurate in the league. It's just the simple fact of an inability of the receiver actually making a play on the ball when it is thrown to him and the fact that he has not developed a "deep ball chemistry" with any of the previous receivers. I agree with you fully, with the exception of one small part. Yes, like mentioned before he still can throw an impeccable deep ball, but the deep threats haven't been solid enough in that category, since Randy Moss and possibly the young Aaron Dobson and new slot receiver Danny Amendola. Now, Julian Edelman on the other hand does have the speed to get down field and make plays. Here below is an example of how he can do so when healthy, 56 yard TD.

Julian Edleman 58 yard td - YouTube

 

[Shockt327]

Oh, in case the last chart is too hard to sift through, here are what the numbers for all the years average out too....

Again, Brady does rank on the low end. But we are splitting hairs. When all these QBs can barely even crack 10+ completions in an entire year, the difference between the averages is pretty small, overall.

Brady  	7.1 of	25.8	310.1 yrd	3.2 TD	2.0 INT

Peyton 	9.1 of	26.6	386.4 yrd	4.5 TD	1.7 INT

BigBen 	7.3 of	20.9	354.7 yrd	3.6 TD	2.1 INT

M Vick 	5.5 of	23.4	268.4 yrd	1.6 TD	1.8 INT

Rivers 	7.7 of	26.1	344.7 yrd	3.1 TD	2.0 INT

Rodgers	8.5 of	22.8	403.0 yrd	3.8 TD	1.8 INT

Flacco 	8.0 of	31.4	358.0 yrd	3.4 TD	1.6 INT

Eli M	7.8 of	27.1	352.4 yrd	3.4 TD	1.9 INT	

Brees	8.1 of	22.5	373.4 yrd	4.0 TD	2.1 INT

 

[VrabelJr]

Stats are for starting arguments, not settling arguments.

 

[supafly]

I don't think there is much of anything to go on, in terms of this debate.

For one thing we haven't had anything remotely resembling a WR who can actually beat man coverage in terms of downfield throws in a long while.

 

[Shockt327]

Stats are for starting arguments, not settling arguments.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Of course he is. For those of us who are 35+, think of yourself at 25 and yourself at 35. Nature's a beeyatch, right? As would have to be the case, Brady continues to be a hard worker/"lifelong learner," but it is what it is.

I've been a Pats fan a long time now, and I don't want this to be happening. But it is.

Upside: As others said earlier, he had a long way to fall -- from (arguably) the best ever (and I think that argument's much stronger with 1 more ring,) to one of the best in the league. It's still a ways before thinking anybody else will give you the best chance to win (although -- ack! -- that can happen fast.)

So - still crazy good. Still a non-issue, because we ain't doing any better any time soon. You ride that train until you're sure you're at the end of the line -- and we're nowhere near the "cut bait" moment.

But should we be doing things to look past Brady? Of course we should, and it looks like we are: shore up the defense, the running game, the tight ends, things like that. Meanwhile keep providing TFB targets (and it's not like that doesn't include the backs and TEs.)

It's been a magical 12 years thus far, and I'd love there to be another magical 5 or even 7 or 8... but we don't know. It might be another 2. And of course 2007 ain't coming back. So everybody forget that.

I'm looking for an Elway SB run at the end to bookend the Aikmen-like run at the beginning... I think that sort of adds up to a Montana, once you factor in the insane stat seasons to make up for the "never lost a SB" thing. You know, in bar arguments.

So for right now, among the best. Not at his peak. Booo hooooooo.

 

[Triumph]

I am a huge Patriots fan but there is simply no denying it. Brady played almost as poorly as Peyton Manning last season, and if that isn't a sign that he is on the decline then nothing is.

Mannings arm got tired as the season wore on 1 year removed from neck surgery. Id say Manning has a legit excuse for last season though youll never hear that out of his mouth.

Brady has never been the long ball passer that Manning has been over his career.

 

[IllegalContact]

you get that at this point of someone's career......like vultures circling, people are waiting for him to get old

 

[Triumph]

Brady in the postseason since 2004.

05 vs the Broncos.

Brady struggled in that game throwing a pic 6 to Champ Bailey in the redzone.

06 vs the Colts

Brady struggled in the 2nd half of that game.

07 vs Giants Super Bowl

Brady and the NFL most potent offense only could score 14 points.

08 Injured

09 vs the Ravens

Total meltdown

10 vs the Jets

Brady struggled the whole game.

11 vs the Giants Super Bowl

First pass out of the gate called for intentional grounding.

12 vs the Ravens

Shut out in the 2nd half. 2 INTS and Poor clock management among other mistakes.

The defense played a big part in those losses too, but Brady is going to have more bad post season games in the future and until the Pats get a defense that is not a sieve they are not winning another Super Bowl anytime soon.

Thats the bottom line.

 

[Rob0729]

Yeah, it was just Brady who was off against the Ravens after half time. Just Brady...

Well that is the problem with these arguments by the media, they are looking at Brady's performance in a vacuum with no real analysis. Brady's play had nothing to do with the fact that Ridley was knocked out of the game or the fact the defense couldn't cover Bolden or Pitta in the second half of the AFCCG.

 

[Kontradiction]

Ultimately using the Ravens game as the primary reason for why the season might be wearing on him is a fundamentally flawed concept. For one, the Ravens always played Brady tough. For another, they had a pretty talented secondary that made sure that the only quality receiver Brady had at that point, Welker, was the only guy getting a release from the press. Combine that with the fact that Brady was missing one of his top targets, yet still managed to get his team within striking distance while amassing over 400 yards of total offense, and the argument is a weak one, at best.

In the end, if Brady's declined, it's only been a bit at this point in time. Within five years, we'll probably see a sharp decline in Brady's game. There haven't been too many 40+ year old quarterbacks throughout NFL history that have put together seasons like the ones we're used to from Brady. But it hasn't happened yet and I have no reason to believe it will happen this season.

 

[Kontradiction]

Brady in the postseason since 2004.


The defense played a big part in those losses too, but Brady is going to have more bad post season games in the future and until the Pats get a defense that is not a sieve they are not winning another Super Bowl anytime soon.

Thats the bottom line.

While I agree with your overall point at the end, your presentation leaves a bit to be desired. 2005 was a bad game by Brady, no doubt. 2006 he should have put enough points on the board to win with what was at the time the worst receiving corps he's ever had, but Alexander couldn't cover Dallas Clark and Rodney was at home watching the game on TV. 2007 the O-Line lost Stephen Neal, Mankins got abused, and Kaczur couldn't block a JV high school DE. 2009 vs. the Ravens, that game was simply the end of the line for a team that was mediocre at best throughout the year (not to mention, Welker was out of the game). The 2010 AFC Divisional Playoff had a multitude of problems. The Jets took advantage of the mediocre corps of WR's by playing straight up press-man. As a result, only Welker could get a free release (sound familiar?). The OL broke down and the offense went pass heavy until it was away too late. Further, Gronk was being used primarily as a blocker throughout the game (how the team didn't manage to take advantage of a 6'7" match up nightmare is beyond me). On top of that, the defense was exposed once they couldn't get their hands on turnovers. In 2011, with the same crop of mediocre WR's outside of Welker and an injured Gronk, Brady set the record for most consecutive completions in the Super Bowl and had the game in hand until Welker dropped a back breaking pass deep in Giants territory. Then, the bad pass defense did what they've been doing since 2006: gave up the game-winning drive. 2012 was more of the same.

In all, it's hard to put all those games on Brady. He didn't play up to par, but the pass defenses get tougher in the playoffs. In those losses, he had plenty of help.

 

[vyrago]

While I agree with your overall point at the end, your presentation leaves a bit to be desired. 2005 was a bad game by Brady, no doubt. 2006 he should have put enough points on the board to win with what was at the time the worst receiving corps he's ever had, but Alexander couldn't cover Dallas Clark and Rodney was at home watching the game on TV. 2007 the O-Line lost Stephen Neal, Mankins got abused, and Kaczur couldn't block a JV high school DE. 2009 vs. the Ravens, that game was simply the end of the line for a team that was mediocre at best throughout the year (not to mention, Welker was out of the game). The 2010 AFC Divisional Playoff had a multitude of problems. The Jets took advantage of the mediocre corps of WR's by playing straight up press-man. As a result, only Welker could get a free release (sound familiar?). The OL broke down and the offense went pass heavy until it was away too late. Further, Gronk was being used primarily as a blocker throughout the game (how the team didn't manage to take advantage of a 6'7" match up nightmare is beyond me). On top of that, the defense was exposed once they couldn't get their hands on turnovers. In 2011, with the same crop of mediocre WR's outside of Welker and an injured Gronk, Brady set the record for most consecutive completions in the Super Bowl and had the game in hand until Welker dropped a back breaking pass deep in Giants territory. Then, the bad pass defense did what they've been doing since 2006: gave up the game-winning drive. 2012 was more of the same.

In all, it's hard to put all those games on Brady. He didn't play up to par, but the pass defenses get tougher in the playoffs. In those losses, he had plenty of help.

to paraphrase someone close to him (just can't remember who) he can't f*n throw AND catch the ball.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

In fairness to the author (James Walker), he is taking exception to the analysis of his colleague, Matt Williamson, who is arguing that TB is in decline.

Who, BTW, is Matt Williamson?

 

[JMC00]

I'll never put those two SB losses on Brady. Gave them a lead with a little over 2 and a 1/2 minutes in one and had them in the lead after driving 14 plays 98 yards in 3 minutes to end the 1st half and then driving 79 yards in 3 minutes to start to start the 2nd half.

Sorry but a defense shouldn't give up scoring drives of 83 (SB 42) and 88 (SB 46) yards knowing that if they make a stop they win the SB.

 

[Ivan]

It's only going to get worse, Brady has to face the jets twice this season and Quentin Coples has already come up with a gameplan to shut him down, saying "If Brady tries to throw the ball I am just going to bat it down. He can't complete passes if I bat them down, right?"

I'm amazed it has taken coaches and defenders in the NFL this long to figure out what it has taken Coples less than a season to realize. And he has the backing of his coach, as Rex Ryan said at practice Tuesday "I think it would be unfair to Quentin to compare him to Reggie White or Lawrence Taylor when he really is a combination of White, Taylor, Ray Lewis, Darrelle Revis, and Deacon Jones. Quentin is really a special players."

 

[Jackson 2]

to paraphrase someone close to him (just can't remember who) he can't f*n throw AND catch the ball.

I believe it was his pal T- Sizzle...

 

[Coach42]

He's asked to be responsible for too much. Against good teams if he's not near perfect Pats lose. We use to play complimentary football around here.

 

[Rob0729]

In fairness to the author (James Walker), he is taking exception to the analysis of his colleague, Matt Williamson, who is arguing that TB is in decline.

Who, BTW, is Matt Williamson?

He is the AFC West's version of James Walker. He is their ESPN blogger.

And you are right. Walker is getting blame for what Williamson is saying.