Effect of $110M-$115M Cap on the pats

[mgteich]

Many seem to think that this $15M-$20M INCREASES the chances of us signing our key free agents. I disagree.

Some of the money would go to increase minimums. There may be other cap adjustments. For argument's sake, let us presume that each team has an addition $15M to spend.

Teams could not spend the cap money, could spend it on exisiting players through restructurings or extensions, or the money could be spent on free agents.

I just don't see how giving everyone $15M extra to spend INCREASES our chances of signing Givens, or anyone else. I think the free agency prices will be higher, and it will be less likely that the prices paid Givens would be acceptable to the patriots. Also, teams that were in cap trouble might need a wide receiver, and didn't ahve enough to vcompete for a Givens. Now, a couple more teams might have enough money to compete.

just by 2 cents.
---------------

BTW, I think that a major gain to the patriots could be that the money might be used to extend players like Seymour, Branch, Graham, Samuel and Koppen.

Curiously, I think this makes it more likely to extend Branch, and less likely to sign Givens.

 

[bobcalkin]

Many seem to think that this $15M-$20M INCREASES the chances of us signing our key free agents. I disagree.

Some of the money would go to increase minimums. There may be other cap adjustments. For argument's sake, let us presume that each team has an addition $15M to spend.

Teams could not spend the cap money, could spend it on exisiting players through restructurings or extensions, or the money could be spent on free agents.

I just don't see how giving everyone $15M extra to spend INCREASES our chances of signing Givens, or anyone else. I think the free agency prices will be higher, and it will be less likely that the prices paid Givens would be acceptable to the patriots. Also, teams that were in cap trouble might need a wide receiver, and didn't ahve enough to vcompete for a Givens. Now, a couple more teams might have enough money to compete.

just by 2 cents.
---------------

BTW, I think that a major gain to the patriots could be that the money might be used to extend players like Seymour, Branch, Graham, Samuel and Koppen.

Curiously, I think this makes it more likely to extend Branch, and less likely to sign Givens.

I agree 100%, when this becomes official people will think that teams can spend without limit. However, within a couple of years the market will adjust and teams will again be struggling to get under the cap. I agree that the new cap is good for the Pats when it comes to extending Seymour and Branch, ect. but probably hurts with a current free agent such as Givens. In Seymour's case I would not be surprised if they sign him soon after the CBA becomes official. That way he can get the contract he wants (highest paid dlineman) but at a price that will be a bargain in a couple of years. As for Givens I think it is far more likely now that someone overpays him on the open market. I think we all know the Pats will continue to show financial restrain and will not overpay for Givens or anyone else. This is not to say that they won't adjust to the new reality but I can see someone giving Givens and other free agents ridiculous money. Just like when people get a raise at work some people are smart and put it away for the future while others will immediately blow on a new car or TV or something so that it doesn't burn a hole in their pocket. Some teams will do this (Redskins and Broncos come to mind) while teams like the Pats and Eagles will continue to have an eye for the future.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Is it absolutely clear that a new CBA would inflate the cap THIS year? I thought the current CBA runs through 2007. Perhaps it replaces the old CBA next year but it seems late to be drastically changing the numbers for this season.

I think I assumed the cap numbers for this year would be largely the same - what it will do is drastically change the cap numbers for the outgoing years and allow bonuses to be stretched out longer than the 4 years the current CBA allows.

That being said, assuming all teams have the same amount of money to spend (and that's not clear at this point) the Patriots could continue to favor using their cap to sign better quality backups in the "middle class" of the NFL where as many other teams will prefer to place a lot of $$ in the hands of a few of the most elite players

The Patriots inclination to staff a strong middle class has worked well in the past and I would hope they would continue.

 

[fgssand]

I am not sure this 102-110 Cap helps much in that the bar is raised for everyone. Will Patriot players be lining up to try to feed at the trough? Will other teams solicit our players with open checkbooks??

I think #1 priority is Seymour followed in order by AV, Mcginist, Neal and Givens. Then a long looks needs to be given to getting Branch done this year.

If there is one thing we can be happy about -- Bill B & Scott P are the BEST at this sort of stuff..

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Is it absolutely clear that a new CBA would inflate the cap THIS year? I thought the current CBA runs through 2007. Perhaps it replaces the old CBA next year but it seems late to be drastically changing the numbers for this season.

I think I assumed the cap numbers for this year would be largely the same - what it will do is drastically change the cap numbers for the outgoing years and allow bonuses to be stretched out longer than the 4 years the current CBA allows.

That being said, assuming all teams have the same amount of money to spend (and that's not clear at this point) the Patriots could continue to favor using their cap to sign better quality backups in the "middle class" of the NFL where as many other teams will prefer to place a lot of $$ in the hands of a few of the most elite players

The Patriots inclination to staff a strong middle class has worked well in the past and I would hope they would continue.

An interesting point, a new CBA would logically take effect in 2007, just in time for Sey's UFA year. If I were his agent I'd encourage him to let the market set his value. Teams like the Broncos who are currently in a tough cap situation can eat it this year and try to bounce back in 2007 with a fat wallet.

 

[borisman]

An interesting point, a new CBA would logically take effect in 2007, just in time for Sey's UFA year. If I were his agent I'd encourage him to let the market set his value. Teams like the Broncos who are currently in a tough cap situation can eat it this year and try to bounce back in 2007 with a fat wallet.

Seymour said he wants what he thinks is fair. He knows he's the best DL in the league. He also said he's not looking to break the bank. He has a number in mind. I don't think he wants to wait till next year so he can really cash in. That would make him a hypocrite. The new CBA would work more in the Pats favor than Sey's favor, if Sey holds true to his word.

 

[DaBruinz]

An interesting point, a new CBA would logically take effect in 2007, just in time for Sey's UFA year. If I were his agent I'd encourage him to let the market set his value. Teams like the Broncos who are currently in a tough cap situation can eat it this year and try to bounce back in 2007 with a fat wallet.

That is not necessarily the case. They could make it an extension like we see player extensions where they re-write the last year of the contract. That would start the new terms of the CBA in 2006, but extend it through 2013, in effect making it a 7 year deal.

 

[arrellbee]

A large cap jump would create an inflation bubble this year for free agents because of all of the new money available. High ticket players who would become free agents next year would be delighted to get extension deals at this years inflated rates because next year, after all of the clubs have spent this year's bubble, the free agent numbers will drop again - altho not back to today's level of course. The Patriots, being very business oriented, would, to me, probably not participate in contract extensions now for next year's free agents, EVEN if they are willing to pay reasonably big bucks next year (never a certainty with the Pats). They will wait until next year when price tags go down a little bit overall to try to sign their own free agents.

On the other hand, IF any of the Pats players want to sign up for extensions at what the Pats consider FAIR value, there will be plenty of room for the Pats to absorb that now.

Personally, I would like to see Harrison, Bruschi, and maybe Vrabel get new deals. I think those guys deserve it. Harrison's deal could be loaded with incentives as opposed to guaranteed money so if he doesn't ever get back to good productivity it wouldn't cost the Pats.

Koppen and Graham are free agents after this season, so they would be good candidates. Wilson is signed thru 2007 so he might be a candidate also.

Miller and Warren are signed thru 2008 and Faulk thru 2009 so they would be less likely to get any extension offers.

Belichick and Pioli seem to find castoffs from other teams that can be signed for reasonable dollars. That might be harder to do this year because of all of the money floating around, but they might still pull some rabbits out of the hat. I would hope for a better job than last year - that was a disaster.

As much as it would be a downer, if there is a big one year jump in the salary cap and a free agent price tag bubble, we might see the Pats deliberately sit out much of the free agent market this year and use the abundance of draft picks and keep players that might otherwise not make the final cuts and plan to reenter the market next year when price tags go down a little.

But ....... the Pats always surprise us, so who knows !!

 

[DaBruinz]

A large cap jump would create an inflation bubble this year for free agents because of all of the new money available. High ticket players who would become free agents next year would be delighted to get extension deals at this years inflated rates because next year, after all of the clubs have spent this year's bubble, the free agent numbers will drop again - altho not back to today's level of course. The Patriots, being very business oriented, would, to me, probably not participate in contract extensions now for next year's free agents, EVEN if they are willing to pay reasonably big bucks next year (never a certainty with the Pats). They will wait until next year when price tags go down a little bit overall to try to sign their own free agents.

On the other hand, IF any of the Pats players want to sign up for extensions at what the Pats consider FAIR value, there will be plenty of room for the Pats to absorb that now.

Personally, I would like to see Harrison, Bruschi, and maybe Vrabel get new deals. I think those guys deserve it. Harrison's deal could be loaded with incentives as opposed to guaranteed money so if he doesn't ever get back to good productivity it wouldn't cost the Pats.

Koppen and Graham are free agents after this season, so they would be good candidates. Wilson is signed thru 2007 so he might be a candidate also.

Miller and Warren are signed thru 2008 and Faulk thru 2009 so they would be less likely to get any extension offers.

Belichick and Pioli seem to find castoffs from other teams that can be signed for reasonable dollars. That might be harder to do this year because of all of the money floating around, but they might still pull some rabbits out of the hat. I would hope for a better job than last year - that was a disaster.

As much as it would be a downer, if there is a big one year jump in the salary cap and a free agent price tag bubble, we might see the Pats deliberately sit out much of the free agent market this year and use the abundance of draft picks and keep players that might otherwise not make the final cuts and plan to reenter the market next year when price tags go down a little.

But ....... the Pats always surprise us, so who knows !!

Arrellbee -
Vrabel already has a new deal that runs through 2009. Bruschi negotiated the deal himself and is quite happy with it and his deal runs through 2007. Harrison's deal takes him through 2008, at which time he will be 36 years old.

Why do you want to give players who have more than 2 years left on their contracts new deals? Wouldn't it be more prudent to give guys like Koppen, Branch, Seymour, and Graham new deals first?

One of the things that the Patriots have made it a point to do is NOT give extensions on rookie contracts that have more than 1 year remaining on them. That is why Seymour didn't get a new deal last year, but got a pay raise. Its been a very sound business practice. Just as its sound business practice to NOT cut a player after they have re-negotiated their contract.

I don't think we will see the Pats sit out of free agency. They have too many issues to rely on the draft alone to replenish the team. Even with the 11 picks that they will have after the compensation picks are awarded.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Even if whatever agreement they hopefully come to doesn't add another $20 million THIS year, the fact that there IS a CBA in place greatly enhances the Patriots ability to work deals with players in or approaching Free Agency

- A 7 year (or more?) extension on the length of time to spread out bonuses

- Higher anticipated cap values later, allowing for some creative accounting now.

So its a big help no doubt - I'm still just intrigued by the thought that "parity" in the NFL in terms of spending could well be over barring some compromise over revenue sharing

 

[flutie2phelan]

Many seem to think that this $15M-$20M INCREASES the chances of us signing our key free agents. I disagree.

....
I just don't see how giving everyone $15M extra to spend INCREASES our chances of signing Givens, or anyone else. I think the free agency prices will be higher, and it will be less likely that the prices paid Givens would be acceptable to the patriots. ....

BTW, I think that a major gain to the patriots could be that the money might be used to extend players like Seymour, Branch, Graham, Samuel and Koppen.

Curiously, I think this makes it more likely to extend Branch, and less likely to sign Givens.

Since i made this point several weeks ago ... in a thread about re-upping Givens ... perhaps it falls to me to explain again.

Obviously, with rosters still at 53 and practice squads still at 8, an extra 15 million is a pure windfall for the players on those teams which spend it on player payroll. Seeing that extra money as a one-time chance to extend Givens and others is built on 3 factors.

1. It takes a little time for price inflation to work through any market system. (Not every vendor raise prices as soon as new credit or money is created. But, eventually, all do.) In this case, perhaps it will be years before ALL contracts have been ratcheted up comparably.

2. Player psychology. Related to #1, but not quite the same thing. Three years from now, players, agents, and GMs all will have adjusted to the new level of expectations ... of "value". Today, while they all know in their brains that this cap spike is about to take place ... few, if any, have internalized it ... switched their scale of values. A 20% pay increase granted today means more ... both to those who pay it and to those who receive it ... even though, overall, an entire roster can be paid 20% more than last week.

3. In the case of Givens, i recommended a pre-emptive strike ... of an attractive offer, that used some of the hypothetically-available new resources. Weeks ago, i wanted to wow! the boy TOMORROW. Specifically, i did not want Givens to get to free agency, to sniff the marketplace. That opportunity is just about gone.

Expecting this singular bonanza to permit easier re-signing of a team's own free agents ... is a matter of emotion and psyche, not of mind and rational calculation. It is also a marginal phenomen ... operating a little bit on almost everyone, and becoming a major input in only a few cases.

If mgteich didn't think it worked this way to some extent ... he could not expect early extensions of next year's free agents to be any easier. Yet he does.

 

[arrellbee]

flutie2phalen
You have some good perspectives. But let me raise one quiet little question. Do you really think it will take more than 1 nanosecond for every agent and "I'm the best" player to look at the increased cap as an immediate windfall and shop for the most outrageous contract they can think of and try to find one of those teams with extra money to bite on their 'superstar' ? And expecting human nature to be no different than it always is - sadly, I think they will find teams foolish enough to spend the big bucks. Witness what the Redskins and a few other teams have done even with minimal cap increases. Just a thought. I'd be interested in what you might think about that.