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Content Post Easing RUN FEARS: Notes on NE vs TEN rewatch


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There were plenty of Q marks / concerns raised in various threads about NE running game - both run D and O - albeit going mainly by the stats and live game feel - many of them in the weekly @patfanken Idle Thoughts The "why do I feel so bad about a 23 pt. victory" edition. -

When your Running game is THE key element in your offense and you can't seem to run the ball, you SHOULD be in a lot of trouble. For most of this game the Pats RB's were STONED at the LOS.

While running game was the strength of NE offence and defence over the last month . the KEY is actually the gameplan they go with and as we know it differs week to week. Going by alignments alone it was clear (as could be expected) that offensively this will not be a run heavy game. TEN run D is a strength and BB likes to take away the strength so it could've been expected that he will not try to force running game through thick TEN wall.

Clear run personnel w Jakob on the field was a rare sight esp. in first half. His snap count was cut in half in this game. Similar goes for Harry - by far best run blocker outside OL - who is not even a part of the package below. They also did not use jumbo formation - not even in GL situations.
As you can see in the picture below most of the time Pats were outnumbered in the box with Mac not considered a running threat by TEN. And if you are outnumbered by equally physical players (or in some cases more so) the proposition is not too good. It had a purpose though since even wo Jakob NE was able to keep TEN run D honest (also based on previous games) which set up much easier passing / play action game.


1638535745772.png


So from TEN perspective they were all in on stopping the run. BB knew that he will get these looks so he gameplanned around it and for the most part successfully so. If Mac would be his accurate self in some key opportunities in the first half - this game could be in cruise control before halftime.

As far as EXECUTION goes it was a joy to watch how well prepared TEN lines (O & D) were and how well they executed.
Simmons and Byard were monsters.
There were some issues on NE side (Harris missing gaps on 2 occasions early, OLs losing grip on some blocks, TEs poor blocking) but on the whole it was mostly about numbers game.

Note that when in 4Q NE wanted to run the clock and used full run packages with both Jakob and Harry they were able to run the ball as usual.

It is literally shocking that you can give up THAT many rushing yds and only allow 13 points. Of course 4 TO's can cure a LOT of defensive deficiencies.
But every team has running plays for first down or third and short and, if you can't stop those, others will see it.

On the other side of the ball the picture was reversed. TEN was all in on running the ball (they didn't have much choice wo all top receivers) which is also their strength even without D.Henry (OL, very good blocking TEs and WRs). 2/3 of their plays were runs (most of 1st and 2nd downs) - 39:21.
They used at least 8 effective blockers on the line in those plays (3 TE sets combined w 2TE+1FB). The TEs used were blocking TEs (Swaim, Pruitt).


1638541460503.png
1638541499350.png


As you can see in the picture above Pats used lighter 7 men box with wide spread line (Guy and God in this case playing 5T outside OTs).
The plan looked to be containing Tann (running, scrambling, long shots) & eliminating outside runs - TEN bread and butter.
The problem was both Tann (short) passing and inside runs worked well at the beginning - also due to great TEN execution across the board.
In the end the plan worked and despite giving up “alarming“ 270 rushing yards they stopped the passing game completely allowing only 11 receptions (most of them early in the game) for 93 yds.

Again there were some problems in execution but for the most part it was the numbers game.
One continuing problem was TEN TEs dominating Pats OLBs on the line making it 5 vs 3 all day with 1 guard (+FB) or even 2 guards running free to second level eliminating HT and Bentley. They even brought in Tavai for KVN at OLB at some point since KVN could not handle his TE. After they rotated KVN, HT, Wise opposite Judon which helped to stop the bleed (& sometimes further exposed the middle wo HT).

Hilliards TD run was discussed already - just a note that Phillips was overrunning plays before (his worst game) and TEN made notice (also about Dugger playing way outside) - so it was combination of TEN using what they saw at the right moment, executed perfectly (again hitting free blocks on HT and Bentley) while all 3 NE safeties were caught off guard.


In the past, the Patriots have done that with at least one big guy in the middle, going back to Ted Washington and Vince Wilfork. They don't need to be exceptional players like those two. Keith Traylor, Alan Branch and Danny Shelton did the job. I thought that was supposed to be Godchaux. If he can't get it done, it's a serious problem. Barmore is obviously a huge handful for the OL but he's not an out and out run stuffer (I think) and Guy and Davis aren't able to do the job, it seems.

Looking at individual run D performances DTs actually did a good job considering game plan, alignments esp. God who was good at variety of positions - nose, 3T, 5T - so i see this game as a positive development in his game that shows versatility beyond nose. Bentley had a great game again despite being eliminated on occasion by unblocked guards. While PFF grades mean only so much this list should not be a surprise to anyone rewatching the game.




Sometimes you have to give credit where credit is due and in this game that was TEN blocking TEAM as @BaconGrundleCandy already described in his thread:

This game was all about their OL, WR, TE & FB blocking - showing off what they can do despite not having the big names. Their two backs ran it 31 times for 240 yards. They put a lot on the OL & secondary blockers and they all responded. They heard all the "King Henry" talk and what not. And at least last week took it personal. Their OL is very talented and does a lot of things well. Stretch - outside, power - duo, inside zone. Talented, versatile and physical. They showed up the other day.

Their interior stood out to me. Both working the los and second level. They took us out the play or reset the line but also made several nice blocks in space 2nd and 3rd level.
When they attacked us on stretch plays, they did a good job sealing off our big boys nicely inside. Turning them around and just walling them off. Pullers did a good job locating and hitting their targets in space.

WR's, TE & FB were all very good too. I'm sure they were all great but all those guys stood out. They took out our edges (Judon/KVN) at times with WR/TE and really let their guys get in space too easy. We couldn't get off our blocks up front, turned around or just got washed out the play. That was a big issue all game. We couldn't penetrate or reset the line.

Id only add once again that there is only so much a line can do when it is outnumbered by design & perfectly executed by equally physical opponent.

Hopefully this puts some run worries at peace before the big game.
I am fully confident Pats will return to their power running game vs BUF & will have success.
It will be interesting to see if they go with similar defensive game plan vs BUF (which would make sense) and how effective it will be against much better passing team.


-.-
 
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"Outnumbered by design" ?

Don't defenses have free will to align themselves in any fashion they choose?

I'm having difficulty accepting NE's complete failure to run the ball on 1st down was part of a master plan to set up 2nd & longs all afternoon.
Here's NE's 1st down running effectiveness in each of their first 8 series
1st ) 3yds, 1 yd, 0 yds, 2 yds
2nd) 2 yds
3rd) -2 yds
4th) 0 runs
5th) 0 runs
6th) 1 yd, 6 yds
7th) 2 yds
8th) -1 yd
(averaged 1.4 yds running on 1st down)

Finally, with 6 minutes to go up by 13, NE had one real successful run on 1st down
9th) 4 yds, 6 yds, 19 yds, -1 yd

2nd down running effectiveness by series
1st) 9 yds, 2 yds
2nd) 2 yds
3rd) 2 yds
4th) 0 runs
5th) 0 runs
6th) 5 yds
7th) QB scramble
8th) 0 runs

Note:
NE attempted 0 runs on 3rd down in the first 8 series except one Mac scramble for 7 yds

Note 2.0:
After 4 failed1st down run attempts in the 1st series, in series 2-8: NE attempted 16 1st down passes and only 5 1st down runs

Seems to me, Vrabel noticed two of NE's opponents who defeated NE did so by effectively eliminating the Pats running game.....
The Saints allowed only 49 rushing yds
The Bucs allowed -1 rushing yds
And looking at his depleted roster on both sides of the ball, he chose to force NE to rely on their rookie's arm and hope Tennessee's pass rush could create pressure and force errant throws (NE very lucky CB over ran Mac's deep lob to Meyers and dropped a near certain pick 6 later)
Vrabel's strategy kept the score within reach until the barrage of Titan turnovers submarined them.
Vrabel had to be furious how little pressure his bolstered LOS was able to create
 
"Outnumbered by design" ?

Don't defenses have free will to align themselves in any fashion they choose?

I'm having difficulty accepting NE's complete failure to run the ball on 1st down was part of a master plan to set up 2nd & longs all afternoon.
Here's NE's 1st down running effectiveness in each of their first 8 series
1st ) 3yds, 1 yd, 0 yds, 2 yds
2nd) 2 yds
3rd) -2 yds
4th) 0 runs
5th) 0 runs
6th) 1 yd, 6 yds
7th) 2 yds
8th) -1 yd
(averaged 1.4 yds running on 1st down)

Finally, with 6 minutes to go up by 13, NE had one real successful run on 1st down
9th) 4 yds, 6 yds, 19 yds, -1 yd

2nd down running effectiveness by series
1st) 9 yds, 2 yds
2nd) 2 yds
3rd) 2 yds
4th) 0 runs
5th) 0 runs
6th) 5 yds
7th) QB scramble
8th) 0 runs

Note:
NE attempted 0 runs on 3rd down in the first 8 series except one Mac scramble for 7 yds

Note 2.0:
After 4 failed1st down run attempts in the 1st series, in series 2-8: NE attempted 16 1st down passes and only 5 1st down runs

Seems to me, Vrabel noticed two of NE's opponents who defeated NE did so by effectively eliminating the Pats running game.....
The Saints allowed only 49 rushing yds
The Bucs allowed -1 rushing yds
And looking at his depleted roster on both sides of the ball, he chose to force NE to rely on their rookie's arm and hope Tennessee's pass rush could create pressure and force errant throws (NE very lucky CB over ran Mac's deep lob to Meyers and dropped a near certain pick 6 later)
Vrabel's strategy kept the score within reach until the barrage of Titan turnovers submarined them.
Vrabel had to be furious how little pressure his bolstered LOS was able to create

idk what your point is here but since i started the thread ill try to respond

Don't defenses have free will to align themselves in any fashion they choose?
?

I'm having difficulty accepting NE's complete failure to run the ball on 1st down was part of a master plan to set up 2nd & longs all afternoon.

Who said that? If this regards something i wrote its big misrepresentation.
My point was BB did not want to invest going vs TEN strength but play around it. He did so with running from 11, 12 personnels vs heavy run D looks (that he expected) that set up a series of easy throwing, play action situations on 2nd or even 1st downs.

Would he mind more success on those run plays? No. Did he react to put in clear/heavy run packages? No.
Were there some execution issues? Yes, some - as noted in my post.
But it was never in doubt what the game plan was and it was working despite Vrabel doing great job and his players playing very well.
Can't remember when i saw Pats moving the ball so easily on a good D like that. There's a reason for that. As there is a reason for lesser TEN rushing success. Do the math. Watch the tape.

If Mac just hit the throw to wide open Henry for a TD this game would be in cruise control early..
 
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There was big criticism about Indy “abandoning“ their successful run game vs here mentioned TB.
Take the commentary for what you will but there are some related points and maybe interesting takeaways for upcoming NE @ IND

 
608F62E2-069F-46F3-8AB4-4CE9A0BDB379.png

This is a good illustration of Vrabel totally flipping the script on offense, compared to what they had been doing this year before last Sunday’s game. Great strategy by him, taking the Pats D by surprise and putting them in disadvantageous personnel matchups, in terms of stopping the run.
 
View attachment 38297

This is a good illustration of Vrabel totally flipping the script on offense, compared to what they had been doing this year before last Sunday’s game. Great strategy by him, taking the Pats D by surprise and putting them in disadvantageous personnel matchups, in terms of stopping the run.

I agree but Vrabel lost the game. So that strategy might go back in the drawer for awhile.
 
There's a reason they were the AFC 1 seed going into the game - their OL is pretty damn good and Vrabel has really done a very good job with that team from a coaching perspective. I appreciate this write-up, nice job.
 
There were plenty of Q marks / concerns raised in various threads about NE running game - both run D and O - albeit going mainly by the stats and live game feel - many of them in the weekly @patfanken Idle Thoughts The "why do I feel so bad about a 23 pt. victory" edition. -



While running game was the strength of NE offence and defence over the last month . the KEY is actually the gameplan they go with and as we know it differs week to week. Going by alignments alone it was clear (as could be expected) that offensively this will not be a run heavy game. TEN run D is a strength and BB likes to take away the strength so it could've been expected that he will not try to force running game through thick TEN wall.

Clear run personnel w Jakob on the field was a rare sight esp. in first half. His snap count was cut in half in this game. Similar goes for Harry - by far best run blocker outside OL - who is not even a part of the package below. They also did not use jumbo formation - not even in GL situations.
As you can see in the picture below most of the time Pats were outnumbered in the box with Mac not considered a running threat by TEN. And if you are outnumbered by equally physical players (or in some cases more so) the proposition is not too good. It had a purpose though since even wo Jakob NE was able to keep TEN run D honest (also based on previous games) which set up much easier passing / play action game.


View attachment 38270


So from TEN perspective they were all in on stopping the run. BB knew that he will get these looks so he gameplanned around it and for the most part successfully so. If Mac would be his accurate self in some key opportunities in the first half - this game could be in cruise control before halftime.

As far as EXECUTION goes it was a joy to watch how well prepared TEN lines (O & D) were and how well they executed.
Simmons and Byard were monsters.
There were some issues on NE side (Harris missing gaps on 2 occasions early, OLs losing grip on some blocks, TEs poor blocking) but on the whole it was mostly about numbers game.

Note that when in 4Q NE wanted to run the clock and used full run packages with both Jakob and Harry they were able to run the ball as usual.




On the other side of the ball the picture was reversed. TEN was all in on running the ball (they didn't have much choice wo all top receivers) which is also their strength even without D.Henry (OL, very good blocking TEs and WRs). 2/3 of their plays were runs (most of 1st and 2nd downs) - 39:21.
They used at least 8 effective blockers on the line in those plays (3 TE sets combined w 2TE+1FB). The TEs used were blocking TEs (Swaim, Pruitt).


View attachment 38271
View attachment 38272


As you can see in the picture above Pats used lighter 7 men box with wide spread line (Guy and God in this case playing 5T outside OTs).
The plan looked to be containing Tann (running, scrambling, long shots) & eliminating outside runs - TEN bread and butter.
The problem was both Tann (short) passing and inside runs worked well at the beginning - also due to great TEN execution across the board.
In the end the plan worked and despite giving up “alarming“ 270 rushing yards they stopped the passing game completely allowing only 11 receptions (most of them early in the game) for 93 yds.

Again there were some problems in execution but for the most part it was the numbers game.
One continuing problem was TEN TEs dominating Pats OLBs on the line making it 5 vs 3 all day with 1 guard (+FB) or even 2 guards running free to second level eliminating HT and Bentley. They even brought in Tavai for KVN at OLB at some point since KVN could not handle his TE. After they rotated KVN, HT, Wise opposite Judon which helped to stop the bleed (& sometimes further exposed the middle wo HT).

Hilliards TD run was discussed already - just a note that Phillips was overrunning plays before (his worst game) and TEN made notice (also about Dugger playing way outside) - so it was combination of TEN using what they saw at the right moment, executed perfectly (again hitting free blocks on HT and Bentley) while all 3 NE safeties were caught off guard.




Looking at individual run D performances DTs actually did a good job considering game plan, alignments esp. God who was good at variety of positions - nose, 3T, 5T - so i see this game as a positive development in his game that shows versatility beyond nose. Bentley had a great game again despite being eliminated on occasion by unblocked guards. While PFF grades mean only so much this list should not be a surprise to anyone rewatching the game.




Sometimes you have to give credit where credit is due and in this game that was TEN blocking TEAM as @BaconGrundleCandy already described in his thread:



Id only add once again that there is only so much a line can do when it is outnumbered by design & perfectly executed by equally physical opponent.

Hopefully this puts some run worries at peace before the big game.
I am fully confident Pats will return to their power running game vs BUF & will have success.
It will be interesting to see if they go with similar defensive game plan vs BUF (which would make sense) and how effective it will be against much better passing team.


-.-


Great post.
 
Here's one play that felt odd and i didn't see it discussed so i wanted to share it here and just found the video.

Barmore wins 1v1 quickly and is rushing alone towards Tannehill for HUGE sack . instead suddenly turns around and starts covering screen from up front for no real reason at all (since its gonna be covered and it is covered from behind).
Cant remember ever seeing something like this. Seeing this made me feel like someone took the contain preach too literally :)
(while ironically giving up contain)

I wonder if anyone has a more sensible take on why this would be a good thing to do than this “great recognition“ take. I mean im all for great recognition but he still had great chance for huge play and even if Tann somehow makes the pass it would be for loss.

The mere fact that he was able to “contain“ himself being a step away from huge play and turn his big body around like that is uncanny..

 
Here's one play that felt odd and i didn't see it discussed so i wanted to share it here and just found the video.

Barmore wins 1v1 quickly and is rushing alone towards Tannehill for HUGE sack . instead suddenly turns around and starts covering screen from up front for no real reason at all (since its gonna be covered and it is covered from behind).
Cant remember ever seeing something like this. Seeing this made me feel like someone took the contain preach too literally :)
(while ironically giving up contain)

I wonder if anyone has a more sensible take on why this would be a good thing to do than this “great recognition“ take. I mean im all for great recognition but he still had great chance for huge play and even if Tann somehow makes the pass it would be for loss.

The mere fact that he was able to “contain“ himself being a step away from huge play and turn his big body around like that is uncanny..



I think the Titans guard, #62, let Barmore run by (Barmore did not "win quickly") as the guard turns to join the screen play. I would expect that the Pats defensive lineman are taught to look for the screen play (when the guard does not really try to block them) instead of running wildly at a retreating QB. Barmore was not going to sack Tannehill, Tannehill would have thrown the ball at the feet of the running back. There was no way Barmore could have known that Hightower was going to blowup the screen, but once he saw that, Barmore proceeded to go back to chasing Tannehill. I think it is all normal for a screen pass.
 
Here's one play that felt odd and i didn't see it discussed so i wanted to share it here and just found the video.

Barmore wins 1v1 quickly and is rushing alone towards Tannehill for HUGE sack . instead suddenly turns around and starts covering screen from up front for no real reason at all (since its gonna be covered and it is covered from behind).
Cant remember ever seeing something like this. Seeing this made me feel like someone took the contain preach too literally :)
(while ironically giving up contain)

I wonder if anyone has a more sensible take on why this would be a good thing to do than this “great recognition“ take. I mean im all for great recognition but he still had great chance for huge play and even if Tann somehow makes the pass it would be for loss.

The mere fact that he was able to “contain“ himself being a step away from huge play and turn his big body around like that is uncanny..


Not real sure I agree w either supposition that barmore has a sack or that the RB is definitely contained if he rcvs the pass.

as big/mobile as Tanny is, he could stave off/backtrack enough to get pass off, whereas Barmore standing in front of RB 100% took away the pass lane.

as many pointed out, TN was getting away with holds all day. …
Guys who would normally be able to shed/disengage to tackle a RB coming by, were in this game, unable to do so. So, the screen might have found more success than you think if B runs after QB and behind the play.
 
Here's one play that felt odd and i didn't see it discussed so i wanted to share it here and just found the video.

Barmore wins 1v1 quickly and is rushing alone towards Tannehill for HUGE sack . instead suddenly turns around and starts covering screen from up front for no real reason at all (since its gonna be covered and it is covered from behind).
Cant remember ever seeing something like this. Seeing this made me feel like someone took the contain preach too literally :)
(while ironically giving up contain)

I wonder if anyone has a more sensible take on why this would be a good thing to do than this “great recognition“ take. I mean im all for great recognition but he still had great chance for huge play and even if Tann somehow makes the pass it would be for loss.

The mere fact that he was able to “contain“ himself being a step away from huge play and turn his big body around like that is uncanny..



Hadn't noticed that play earlier... Barmore must've been warned to look for the screen if the RBs stopped blocking and started drifting into the flat, or if the OLmen acted like turnstiles at the POA...
 
Maybe let's stop pretending everything was intentional. Letting them run is maybe like 100-150 yards. 270 rushing yards is a disaster and shows the clear weak links on defense that have been called out before in Godchaux (led in DLine snaps) and Bentley. Masters of accumulating stats after giving up big plays.

.
 
Yeah, and there's no way for Barmore to know that other guys have the screen shut down. His back it turned and it all happens in .7 seconds. He's taught to follow that script and if Judon had stayed just another step outside the play would have been a major victory for the D.

I'd rather see it as a rookie DT making a great decision/reaction that a lot of vet DT's don't make. The kid is going to be amazing after he gets another 20 games under his belt. Reminds me of Alan Page.

I think the Titans guard, #62, let Barmore run by (Barmore did not "win quickly") as the guard turns to join the screen play. I would expect that the Pats defensive lineman are taught to look for the screen play (when the guard does not really try to block them) instead of running wildly at a retreating QB. Barmore was not going to sack Tannehill, Tannehill would have thrown the ball at the feet of the running back. There was no way Barmore could have known that Hightower was going to blowup the screen, but once he saw that, Barmore proceeded to go back to chasing Tannehill. I think it is all normal for a screen pass.

Not real sure I agree w either supposition that barmore has a sack or that the RB is definitely contained if he rcvs the pass.

as big/mobile as Tanny is, he could stave off/backtrack enough to get pass off, whereas Barmore standing in front of RB 100% took away the pass lane.

as many pointed out, TN was getting away with holds all day. …
Guys who would normally be able to shed/disengage to tackle a RB coming by, were in this game, unable to do so. So, the screen might have found more success than you think if B runs after QB and behind the play.
 
I agree but Vrabel lost the game. So that strategy might go back in the drawer for awhile.

That's not a reason to change a strategy.
Vrabel knows that if the turnover margin were reversed, he would have won with that strategy. That was about execution, and I'd wager those two fumbles don't happen again if they play in the postseason, plus the Titans should have NFL caliber WR's back by then.
 
Nice attempt to justify the running performance on both sides of the line but I'm with @patfanken on this one.
 
Nice attempt to justify the running performance on both sides of the line but I'm with @patfanken on this one.

Yep, and regarding our own running offense, it seems clear to me that our RBs, especially the Omen, like having Jake Johnson in the backfield with them to help open the all-important first hole...

Except during obvious passing situations, I would employ 1-2 or 2-2 personnel throughout the game on Monday (i.e: 2 out of every 3 snaps), especially when the weather conditions are taken into account.
 
Only run fears is Ivan Fears
 


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