Early impressions

[D-cleater]

Morris's success rate* as a Patriot is 42%

Maroney's is 58%


Your eyes are lying to you because you have already formed your opinions.

*success rate: Runs of greater than 40% of needed yards on 1st down, 60% of needed yards on 2nd down, or 100% of needed yards on 3rd down. (football outsiders)

Thanks for this - success rate is an interesting metric. I would love a link to this data but I will take your word for it.

Perhaps I form my opinion based on the expectation that a RB should run hard at all times, and I prefer to watch RB's who run with this style, and I don't think Maroney does. But if the stats say he consistently delivers, then I won' argue with that!

Did anyone else notice him wide open in the flat on several plays? I would LOVE to see Brady get him the ball a few times when he's got room to move, at least in preseason, even if the WR is open. Just recalling the big gains he got a few years ago in playoffs - those were fun to watch.

 

[D-cleater]

Its fine that you feel that way, the problem is, even with his problems, his production is still better than anyone else on the roster, and better than most in the NFL. Despite all his "dancing", "lack of vision", etc, he out performs morris and BJGE on almost every subset of running plays. Power running, 1st down, etc. He loses yards less often, has a higher success rate, and has a higher YPC.




I don't think you know what an NFL starting -caliber RB is.

uh, ok. and you do? have you ever been employed by an NFL team? just curious as to whether you have any credentials or whether you're just an message board fanboy making worthless comparisons to other RB's on the Patriots team that have no bearing on my opinion that Maroney doesn't fully take advantage of his considerable physical skills.

 

[Deus Irae]

Thanks for this - success rate is an interesting metric. I would love a link to this data but I will take your word for it.

Perhaps I form my opinion based on the expectation that a RB should run hard at all times, and I prefer to watch RB's who run with this style, and I don't think Maroney does. But if the stats say he consistently delivers, then I won' argue with that!

Did anyone else notice him wide open in the flat on several plays? I would LOVE to see Brady get him the ball a few times when he's got room to move, at least in preseason, even if the WR is open. Just recalling the big gains he got a few years ago in playoffs - those were fun to watch.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Football analysis and NFL stats for the Moneyball era - Authors of Football Outsiders Almanac 2009

 

[patchick]

Morris's success rate* as a Patriot is 42%

Maroney's is 58%


Your eyes are lying to you because you have already formed your opinions.

*success rate: Runs of greater than 40% of needed yards on 1st down, 60% of needed yards on 2nd down, or 100% of needed yards on 3rd down. (football outsiders)

I'll also toss in that a success rate above 50% is very uncommon. E.g. Adrian Peterson scored a 46%, Michael Turner 48%, etc.

Perhaps I form my opinion based on the expectation that a RB should run hard at all times, and I prefer to watch RB's who run with this style, and I don't think Maroney does.

Yes!!!!! I think this is the real story. It's like baseball pitchers who rack up wins but the fans grumble about them because they're excruciating to watch pitch.

Maroney delivers based on any objective measure you can devise. But his style of running drives people crazy because he makes it look like he coulda, shoulda gotten more yards. When you plow straight ahead into the wall of humanity, everybody calls you "hard-nosed" and applauds you for your 3.7 yard average. When you run like Maroney, everybody calls you a "dancer" and blasts you for your 4.3 yard average.

I think this is a case where you have to stop trusting your eyes and trust the numbers.

 

[Synovia]

uh, ok. and you do? have you ever been employed by an NFL team? just curious as to whether you have any credentials or whether you're just an message board fanboy making worthless comparisons to other RB's on the Patriots team that have no bearing on my opinion that Maroney doesn't fully take advantage of his considerable physical skills.

If hes not taking advantage of his skills, why does he get so many more yards than Morris?

 

[patchick]

If hes not taking advantage of his skills, why does he get so many more yards than Morris?

Magnets.

Duh.

 

[D-cleater]

I'll also toss in that a success rate above 50% is very uncommon. E.g. Adrian Peterson scored a 46%, Michael Turner 48%, etc.



Yes!!!!! I think this is the real story. It's like baseball pitchers who rack up wins but the fans grumble about them because they're excruciating to watch pitch.

Maroney delivers based on any objective measure you can devise. But his style of running drives people crazy because he makes it look like he coulda, shoulda gotten more yards. When you plow straight ahead into the wall of humanity, everybody calls you "hard-nosed" and applauds you for your 3.7 yard average. When you run like Maroney, everybody calls you a "dancer" and blasts you for your 4.3 yard average.

I think this is a case where you have to stop trusting your eyes and trust the numbers.

Fair enough. I admit that I do expect a lot from a Belichick/Pioli 1st round RB, running behind an Oline featuring 3 Pro bowlers, in an offense featuring a HOF QB, HOF WR, and best slot receiver in the game. Maybe I expect too much.

But if the numbers suggest that Maroney is a more effective running back than A Peterson and M Turner, then I will politefully take them with a grain of salt

 

[Frezo]

I'll also toss in that a success rate above 50% is very uncommon. E.g. Adrian Peterson scored a 46%, Michael Turner 48%, etc.



Yes!!!!! I think this is the real story. It's like baseball pitchers who rack up wins but the fans grumble about them because they're excruciating to watch pitch.

Maroney delivers based on any objective measure you can devise. But his style of running drives people crazy because he makes it look like he coulda, shoulda gotten more yards. When you plow straight ahead into the wall of humanity, everybody calls you "hard-nosed" and applauds you for your 3.7 yard average. When you run like Maroney, everybody calls you a "dancer" and blasts you for your 4.3 yard average.

I think this is a case where you have to stop trusting your eyes and trust the numbers.

What I would like to see from Maroney is the guy that could get past the LOS and bust it up at the 2nd level for a 10 or 15 yard gain. I want to see those Dillonesque straight arms that should've become his trade mark. I don't know if the problem is Maroney himself, the o-line or the coaching, but he is, or was, the type of runner that should be doing this 3 or 4 times a game. Yes, he is a successful RB now, but IMO he has the potential to be more. Players that don't live up to their perceived potential regardless of stats can be frustrating for some fans.

 

[T-cat]

alright after all those negative posts i just want to say I LIKE ALL THE PATRIOTS!....except for that bum eric alexander

 

[DaBruinz]

That's nice. There are lies, damn lies, and statistics.

You seem to love Maroney, as do others. I don't like Maroney, as others don't.

Time will tell which group was right. So far, the proof is in the pudding. They picked up Morris and Jordan, and now Fred Taylor. Shows you how much faith they have in Maroney.

They picked up Morris as a back-up to Faulk and Maroney because they needed a 3rd RB. They picked up Jordan because Morris spent most of 2007 on the IR and because of Maroney's shoulder injury. What happened in 2008? Morris missed several games, again, due to injury and Maroney ended the year on the IR. And Jordan was injured for much of the season as well. They added Taylor because Morris gets banged up during the year and Maroney is recovering from a broken shoulder bone..

But, lets just be you and ignore the facts that don't support you..

 

[D-cleater]

OK, help me out here. Maroney's and Morris's numbers from the past two years that both players were on the team.

MORRIS
ATT YDS YPC
2006 156 727
2007 85 384
Total 241 1111 4.61

MARONEY ATT YDS YPC
2006 28 93
2007 185 835
Total 213 928 4.36


I haven't looked at situational stats yet and should probably get back to work, but I feel fairly confident that between the backs there is a an equal distribution of carries where there is more than 1 or 2 yds required for first down or TD, if anything, it would go in Maroney's favor.

Morris also has 10 TD's to Maroney's 6.

I'm not saying stats tell the whole story, just debunking the claims that Maroney gets so many more yards than Morris

 

[DaBruinz]

So what are you going to say when they use the 4-3 against the Bengals next Thursday?

You seem to be holding out hope that the Pats are suddenly going to switch back to the 3-4 within the week. It's not going to happen Deus; I've been telling you this for a week now.

Pats1 - The 4-3 was not very good last night...Regardless of the two sacks.

I think that the Pats using the 4-3 into the season says they are mailing it in, honestly, because it just doesn't work for the personnel they have.

 

[Trocadile]

Morris's success rate* as a Patriot is 42%

Maroney's is 58%


Your eyes are lying to you because you have already formed your opinions.

*success rate: Runs of greater than 40% of needed yards on 1st down, 60% of needed yards on 2nd down, or 100% of needed yards on 3rd down. (football outsiders)

This would be a persuasive argument ... if only it were true. The Maroney success rate you mention is from the 2007 regular season only - not from his career as a Patriot. Last year, all his Football Outsiders stats were inferior to Morris' (and Jordan's, and Faulk's, and BJGE's) and in his rookie year, his stats were inferior to Dillon's.

 

[D-cleater]

If hes not taking advantage of his skills, why does he get so many more yards than Morris?

He does not get more yards than Morris. He should, if his first round selection is justified. They play in the same offense and Morris is 32 years old to Maroney's 24

 

[DaBruinz]

I liked what I saw from Edelman, but I don't agree with that. Edelman dropped a couple balls, and doesn't read downfield nearly as well as Welker. In the same role, at his present skills, he might catch 100 balls, but it would be for 600 yards instead of Welker's 1200. Could just be rookie jitters though...

Moss had a some drops last night as well. I disagree that Edelman doesn't read downfield nearly as well as Welker. Not based on last night's game, anyways.

 

[Synovia]

Last year, all his Football Outsiders stats were inferior to Morris'

Last year, Maroney had what, 25 carries? And was hurt.

 

[Deus Irae]

OK, help me out here. Maroney's and Morris's numbers from the past two years that both players were on the team.

MORRIS
ATT YDS YPC
2006 156 727
2007 85 384
Total 241 1111 4.61

MARONEY ATT YDS YPC
2006 28 93
2007 185 835
Total 213 928 4.36


I haven't looked at situational stats yet and should probably get back to work, but I feel fairly confident that between the backs there is a an equal distribution of carries where there is more than 1 or 2 yds required for first down or TD, if anything, it would go in Maroney's favor.

Morris also has 10 TD's to Maroney's 6.

I'm not saying stats tell the whole story, just debunking the claims that Maroney gets so many more yards than Morris

Well, if you weren't slanting the data by including the numbers from last year when you already know that Maroney was hurt and the O-line wasn't getting it done, you'd have different results, now, wouldn't you? By the way, the years you're using are 2007 and 2008, not 2006 and 2007.

In 2006, Maroney had 174 carries for 745 yards, which was a 4.3 ypc average. Dillon, in that same season, ran 199 times for 812 yards, which was a 4.1 ypc average.


But keep pretending that you're not a Maroney basher!

 

[DaBruinz]

No, he did actually say that. I've already watched the game twice and remember hearing it again.

When did Randy Cross say this? I've re-watched the 1st quarter and part of the 2nd, and haven't heard anything of the sort.

If the Pats run the 4-3 exclusively this year, I don't expect the play-offs or the SB. The Defense just isn't built for it. Not to mention that Mayo was over-pursuing on most of the plays last night..

 

[pencilneckgeek]

Not to ignore this highly original analysis of our RB situation....

If the Pats are going 4-3 full time this year how does Bruschi fit into the equation? Mayo's backup, doesn't play special teams?

This could turn out to be interesting. If they go 4-3, not only is it likelier that there will be one more DL and one fewer LB on the roster, but Lenon becomes a more natural backup to Mayo, since that's the position he filled pretty ably in Detroit. Injuries will tell a big part of the story, but I wouldn't be shocked to see Bruschi get cut. My sense is that his effectiveness has declined even more than Vrabel's, even if his cap hit isn't as big, and a 4-3 may be a natural evolution of the defense. Bill may like the conservatism of the 2-gap 3-4, but he's always played the matchup game, customizing his defense to fit the skills of his players and his opponents, and this year, the D-linemen look pretty damn solid.

 

[DaBruinz]

Thank you.

LaMa isn't dancing, which would be a manifestation of indecisiveness. That's not his problem. His problem is his vision, and the lack thereof. He also doesn't seem to be thinking about what may happen, while he's waiting for the handoff. For instance: "This dive we have just called tends to get stuffed early, if at all, so if there's nothing there, I have to be ready to bounce it outside." He just doesn't seem to get it. I really, really hope that Fred Taylor has one more good year left in him.

Both you and Sarge are 100% WRONG. Maroney hit the holes that were there. You can't blame him for not hitting holes that were open before he even got the ball..Which was the case on 2 plays.. And you can't blame Maroney for the holes disappearing because the O-linemen get pushed into them.. As happened on 2 of the plays..