Early 3 Round 2014 Mock after Underlcassmen Declarations Complete

[manxman2601]

Excellent mock as always. I noticed this:

74. NY Giants: Morgan Moses, OT, West Virginia. 6’6” 325#. The Giants need OL help badly.

Whilst I agree with your eval, it's interesting to note that Matt Miller said he was told that Moses will go much higher and that Daniel Jeremiah has Moses going late in the first round. Obviously these thins are fluid but I wonder whether Moses is benefiting from a DJ Fluker planet theory bump in draft stock.

 

[mayoclinic]

Whilst I agree with your eval, it's interesting to note that Matt Miller said he was told that Moses will go much higher and that Daniel Jeremiah has Moses going late in the first round. Obviously these thins are fluid but I wonder whether Moses is benefiting from a DJ Fluker planet theory bump in draft stock.

It wouldn't surprise me to see Moses as a late riser, but right now most people have him as a day 2/3 fringe player. He's a powerful tackle who would fit the Giants well, and would be great value in that range, but he could easily rise. There is a ton of talent in this draft, and there will be some absurd values going 1/2-1 round later than they normally would.

It's hard - though not impossible - for me to imagine Moses leapfrogging any of the top 5 OTs (Greg Robinson, Jake Matthews, Taylor Lewan, Cyrus Kouandjio or "Tiny" Richardson). Menelik Watson was the #5 OT to go last year, and he went #42 overall, with the top 4 going in the first 12 picks. Moses is certainly someone to watch during the next few months.

I incorporated a few reaches in my mock, but I tried generally to give each team what I thought would end up being a pretty good draft for them. I would personally consider Kony Ealy, Allen Robinson and Morgan Moses to be a darn good day 1-2 draft for the Giants. I think quite a few teams came off with drafts that are indicative of how good this class is:

NY Jets: TE Eric Ebron - WR Brandin Cooks - DE/OLB Michael Sam
Miami: OT Taylor Lewan - OG Xavier Sua-Filo - TE Kyle Fiedorowicz
Buffalo: DE/OLB Khalil Mack - OL Zach Martin - SS Deone Buchannon
Baltimore: WR Mike Evans - OC Travis Swanson (3rd round pick traded)
Pittsburgh: NT Louis Nix - DB Lamarcus Joyner (no 3rd round pick)
Carolina: WR Kelvin Benjamin - RB Bishop Sankey - CB Aaron Colvin
Green Bay: S Calvin Pryor - CB Bradley Robey - OLB Adrian Hubbard
Dallas: DT Ra'Shede Hageman - OG Anthony Steen - CB EJ Gaines
Philadelphia: S Ha-ha Clinton Dix - DE/OLB Trevor Reilly - CB Terrance Mitchell
New Orleans: CB Jason Verett - WR Jarvis Landry - DE/OLB Jeremiah Attoachu
San Francisco: DE/DT Stephon Tuitt - WR Jordan Matthews - CB Marcus Roberson - ILB Christian Jones - WR Paul Richardson
Kansas City: TE Jace Amaro - ILB Chris Borland (no 2nd round pick)
Denver: LB Ryan Shazier - CB Louichez Purifoy - WR Bruce Ellington
Detroit: WR Sammy Watkins - ILB Shayne Skov (3rd round pick traded)
Indianapolis: DB Kyle Fuller - OC Weston Richburg (no 1st round pick)
Washington: TE Austin Seferian Jenkins - OG Gabe Jackson (no 1st round pick)
Chicago: LB CJ Mosely - DT Aaron Donald - S Ahmed Dixon - DE Aaron Lynch
Seattle: OG Cyrus Richardson - WR Martavis Bryant (no 3rd round pick)
Arizona: OT Cyrus Kouandjio - DE/OLB Jackson Jeffcoat - QB Brent Smith

I think most of those are pretty decent attempts to fill needs and add quality talent.

 

[Snake Eyes]

What are your thoughts on trading Gronkowski for a pick? My view is that he is injured too often. When healthy, he's amazing. Unfortunately, he's been bitten by the injury bug a lot. I love the guy, but his injury history and immaturity aren't winning games for us right now.

He's very injured about to be due a bunch of money, that could tank his value. Assuming someone would offer enough in terms of draft picks I'd be all for it, the money savings would allow us to keep Blount and Edelperson as well as restock potentially with Amaro and others.

I like the idea.

 

[mayoclinic]

A healthy gronk is a top ten player in the game. His contract is reasonable, and he should come back healthy.

You can't sell low on a top 10 player, ever

This.

One of many reasons I like the idea of getting someone like Troy Niklas (or Austin Seferian-Jenkins) in this draft is that it would allow the Pats to pace Gronk a bit. He's a unique matchup weapon in the NFL - absolutely no one has Gronk's combination of receiving and blocking ability. It was obvious last week in the New Orleans-Seattle game just how big a difference there is between Gronk and Jimmy Graham in terms of being a complete TE. With the evolution of the Pats' power run game, a blocking TE who can be a receiving threat would be even more devastating. But Gronk takes a ton of physical abuse for his style of play, and I think the Pats need to think about pacing him just a bit, and have some insurance in place.

I wouldn't trade Gronk. But I would manage my roster so that the Pats could use him a bit more sparingly.

 

[kennyb]

How is someone like Scott Chandler at blocking? I wonder how expensive he'd be.

Niklas is an interesting pick. He doesn't have the hands or speed or suddeness of Gronkowski though. Plus he's had some concussion history.

ASJ is supposedly a great blocker. A little sluggish as far as separation but great hands. Don't know about Amaro's blocking.

 

[mayoclinic]

My biggest issue is sheer quantity here; I suspect that if the Pats draft 13 players, at least 3 or 4 of them are going to end up on other teams. I honestly think that, in a scenario like this, the Pats would be more likely to trade up in later rounds than trade down.

I agree. Last year was an anomoly as far as how many new players stuck, and were added over one off season. With the amount of players coming back, I would guess we are more likely to move up than move back, especially with the two 6th round projected comps.

Outside of that, its incredible work as always Mayo. I would probably be more inclined to jump on Swanson than Van Noy, although Stork is not a bad backup plan if it shook out that way. I feel like both have great mobility, while Swanson seems to be the tough SOB mankins type as an added bonus.

This mock was done mainly as an exercise to get a feel for the depth and shape of the draft class, and of team needs. I've discussed my full 7 round mock for the Pats in more detail on the mock draft thread:

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...3/1034735-2014-mock-draft-thread-page41.html (posts #405-406)

I agree that it's unlikely the Pats would draft so many players, or trade back to acquire even more. However, a couple of comments:

1. Some of the picks I've listed could easily fall into the UDFA range.
2. Some of the picks I've listed will be depth in roster competition with guys currently at the end of the roster. For example, I could see Brandon Bolden and Zach Bauman fighting for the 4th RB spot, Trent Millard fighting for a FB/H-Back spot either with James Develin or a 4th TE, Jonathan Dowling fighting with Tavon Wilson for a last DB spot, and Cody Hoffman fighting it out with Mark Harrison and TJ Moe for a last WR spot, or with Harrison/Michael Hoomanawanui for a WR vs. extra TE spot. It's normal for the Pats to bring in 20-30 new bodies into training camp between the rookie draftees and the UDFAs. In reality, there are only 5 guys who I think are "locks" (though I think Millard would be a near lock, possibly starting on PUP): Trent Murphy and Kyle Van Noy on defense, and the 2 OLs (Stork and Turner) and Troy Niklas on offense. Competition is good, and this is a very deep draft, and I'm happy getting a bunch of talented but raw guys and letting them compete in training camp and see if they make it.
3. With the relatively flat salary cap, a deep rookie group becomes more important to keep costs down. You want to assemble the best team possible, but a day 3 rookie or UDFA signed for 3-4 years is going to be very cost effective compared to a marginal veteran. I think that's an important consideration for roster building.

I potentially see about 8-10+ roster spots up for grabs next year:

- 1-2 TE/H-Backs.
- 1-2 Offensive linemen. At least 2 if Wendell walks in FA, as I've projected. Marcus Cannon will be in a contract year, Dan Connolly hasn't played up to his $4M contract and will be 32, and Will Svitek may not be back.
- 1-2 defensive lineman. Jake Bequette needs to be upgraded, Andre Carter is done. The tackle position needs to be resolved prior to the draft.
- 1 LB. Brandon Spikes will be gone. Steve Beauharnais may be the 5th LB, but there is room for an upgrade.
- 1-2 DBs. Tavon Wilson will be on the bubble and needs some competition, and we need another big CB who can play press-man outside (and keep Kyle Arrington from being played at outside CB).
- 1-2 backup QBs IF Mallett is traded.

Obviously, some of those needs could be filled in FA. But given the cap situation, bringing in rookies to challenge is not unreasonable.

I could see taking Kyle Van Noy (or one of the other options) at #33 instead of trading back a bit. I'm also not sure Troy Niklas will last to #64, and I could see trading up for him. But for now, I've chosen to maximize focusing on potential prospects, and trade backs are useful for that.

As far as Travis Swanson goes, he would be a great pick. Perfect Patriot. But I think there are 4 solid centers in this draft (Swanson, Stork, Weston Richburg and Travis Larsen), and I'm not sure the fall-off from Swanson to the others is great enough to take him that high. Van Noy has a rarer skill set. Austin Seferian-Jenkins would also be a great pick, but I actually prefer Niklas (I have concerns about Seferian-Jenkins' work ethic, and he's had a few off-field issues) and he should be available later in the draft.

 

[manxman2601]

This.

One of many reasons I like the idea of getting someone like Troy Niklas (or Austin Seferian-Jenkins) in this draft is that it would allow the Pats to pace Gronk a bit. He's a unique matchup weapon in the NFL - absolutely no one has Gronk's combination of receiving and blocking ability. It was obvious last week in the New Orleans-Seattle game just how big a difference there is between Gronk and Jimmy Graham in terms of being a complete TE. With the evolution of the Pats' power run game, a blocking TE who can be a receiving threat would be even more devastating. But Gronk takes a ton of physical abuse for his style of play, and I think the Pats need to think about pacing him just a bit, and have some insurance in place.

I wouldn't trade Gronk. But I would manage my roster so that the Pats could use him a bit more sparingly.

How is someone like Scott Chandler at blocking? I wonder how expensive he'd be.

Niklas is an interesting pick. He doesn't have the hands or speed or suddeness of Gronkowski though. Plus he's had some concussion history.

ASJ is supposedly a great blocker. A little sluggish as far as separation but great hands. Don't know about Amaro's blocking.

I agree with Mayo that a bigger TE helps keep Gronk healthier longer term. My personal preference would be for ASJ because like Gronk he pretty much snags any ball thrown in his direction and if the new look offense becomes more centered around the run Gronk + ASJ works nicely to help there as well as in the redzone.

I would grade them:

1. Ebron (first round)
2. ASJ (1st round)
3=. Amaro/Niklas (2nd round)
4. Richard Rodgers (3rd-4th round)
4. Fiedorowicz/Marcel Jensen (4th round)

 

[mayoclinic]

I agree with Mayo that a bigger TE helps keep Gronk healthier longer term. My personal preference would be for ASJ because like Gronk he pretty much snags any ball thrown in his direction and if the new look offense becomes more centered around the run Gronk + ASJ works nicely to help there as well as in the redzone.

I would grade them:

1. Ebron (first round)
2. ASJ (1st round)
3=. Amaro/Niklas (2nd round)
4. Richard Rodgers (3rd-4th round)
4. Fiedorowicz/Marcel Jensen (4th round)

I think that's pretty spot on, though I have ASJ and Amaro both as 1st/2nd borderline picks. Ebron to me is the real deal and worth a top 20 pick. I think that ASJ is more developed than Niklas, but Niklas is "cleaner" in terms of work ethic and off-field issues and has an unknown ceiling because he is such a recent convert to TE.

 

[mayoclinic]

It seems that every mock I'm seeing of late when I come here has Mallett being traded for a 2nd round pick. Has there been any talk about this happening, or a team showing interest?

Not much that I'm aware of short of speculation. I've included it partly because it gives me more scope to focus on draft prospects of interest, and partly because it makes a certain amount of sense:

- There top 4 QBs will all almost certainly go top 15, and then there is a huge drop off. 2 of the possible next 4 QBs are coming off of ACL injuries (Zach Mettenberger and Aaron Murray). This is not like 2011, where you had guys like Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick going in the early 2nd round.
- The FA QB class is very poor. Anyone want to bet the farm on Josh Freeman? Michael Vick will be 34 and lost his starting job.
- Mallett will be in a contract year, and will probably be gone after 2014.

It's certainly not a given, mainly because Mallett hasn't gotten enough playing time to show what he can do, but it's not ridiculous.

 

[manxman2601]

Not much that I'm aware of short of speculation. I've included it partly because it gives me more scope to focus on draft prospects of interest, and partly because it makes a certain amount of sense:

- There top 4 QBs will all almost certainly go top 15, and then there is a huge drop off. 2 of the possible next 4 QBs are coming off of ACL injuries (Zach Mettenberger and Aaron Murray). This is not like 2011, where you had guys like Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick going in the early 2nd round.
- The FA QB class is very poor. Anyone want to bet the farm on Josh Freeman? Michael Vick will be 34 and lost his starting job.
- Mallett will be in a contract year, and will probably be gone after 2014.

It's certainly not a given, mainly because Mallett hasn't gotten enough playing time to show what he can do, but it's not ridiculous.

We haven't talked much about the Vikings in relation to Mallett. They're the last of the QB needy teams and if they a) don't trade up or B) don't like Carr's value in the top 10 (understandable), then I wonder if they become players for Mallett , specially if Norv Turner and his vertical game does become the OC there.

 

[mayoclinic]

Bucky Brooks' top 5 list at NFL.com:

Top 5 2014 NFL Draft prospects by position: Quarterbacks - NFL.com

It's a fairly solid list, and gives some sense of how good this draft is:

- Lache Sestrunk and Devonta Freeman don't make Brooks' top 5 at RB.
- Kelvin Benjamin, Allen Robinson and Jordan Matthews don't make Brooks' top 5 at WR.
- The top 5 OTs and top 5 interior linemen are all worthy of a top 40 pick.

Right now I could see around 40+ guys with 1st round grades:

- QB(4): Bridgwater, Manziel, Bortles, Carr.
- RB(0): none, but a few who could sneak in.
- WR(8): Watkins, Evans, Benjamin, Lee, Beckham, Cooks, Robinson, Matthews.
- TE(3): Ebron, Amaro, Seferian-Jenkins. Remote possibility that Niklas could move up.
- OT(5): Robinson, Matthews, Kouandjio, Lewan, Richardson. Some have suggested that Morgan Moses could end up with a 1st round grade.
- OG/C(3): Yankey, Swanson, Richardson. Sua-Filo and Martin are borderline.
- DT(3): Nix, Hageman, Jernigan.
- DE(4): Clowney, Ealy, Tuitt, Murphy. Crichton is borderline.
- OLB(3): Barr, Mack, Shazier. Van Noy is borderline. Bradford could move up.
- ILB(1): Mosely.
- S(3): Pryor, Clinton Dix, Joyner.
- CB(3): Dennard, Gilbert, Verett. Robey is borderline.

That's 40 right there, with another 5-10 who are borderline. There could be as many as 50 players who might have gone in the 1st round in most years.

 

[Pats0204]

Mayo,
Love reading you and Manxman's work. Great stuff. The last number I saw was 92 underclassmen declarations. Was that the final #?

 

[manxman2601]

Mayo,
Love reading you and Manxman's work. Great stuff. The last number I saw was 92 underclassmen declarations. Was that the final #?

I think it finished at 93. Brendan Bigelow (Cal) (who is a seriously fast RB btw) declared yesterday too.

Edit: Check that, Dane Brugler says 96. :-O

 

[manxman2601]

Bucky Brooks' top 5 list at NFL.com:

Top 5 2014 NFL Draft prospects by position: Quarterbacks - NFL.com

It's a fairly solid list, and gives some sense of how good this draft is:

- Lache Sestrunk and Devonta Freeman don't make Brooks' top 5 at RB.
- Kelvin Benjamin, Allen Robinson and Jordan Matthews don't make Brooks' top 5 at WR.
- The top 5 OTs and top 5 interior linemen are all worthy of a top 40 pick.

Right now I could see around 40+ guys with 1st round grades:

- QB(4): Bridgwater, Manziel, Bortles, Carr.
- RB(0): none, but a few who could sneak in.
- WR(8): Watkins, Evans, Benjamin, Lee, Beckham, Cooks, Robinson, Matthews.
- TE(3): Ebron, Amaro, Seferian-Jenkins. Remote possibility that Niklas could move up.
- OT(5): Robinson, Matthews, Kouandjio, Lewan, Richardson. Some have suggested that Morgan Moses could end up with a 1st round grade.
- OG/C(3): Yankey, Swanson, Richardson. Sua-Filo and Martin are borderline.
- DT(3): Nix, Hageman, Jernigan.
- DE(4): Clowney, Ealy, Tuitt, Murphy. Crichton is borderline.
- OLB(3): Barr, Mack, Shazier. Van Noy is borderline. Bradford could move up.
- ILB(1): Mosely.
- S(3): Pryor, Clinton Dix, Joyner.
- CB(3): Dennard, Gilbert, Verett. Robey is borderline.

That's 40 right there, with another 5-10 who are borderline. There could be as many as 50 players who might have gone in the 1st round in most years.

I personally wouldn't touch Benjamin with a barge pole in the first - not that I'm disagreeing with your list mind).

 

[mayoclinic]

I think it finished at 93. Brendan Bigelow (Cal) (who is a seriously fast RB btw) declared yesterday too.

Edit: Check that, Dane Brugler says 96. :-O

It's somewhere in that range. GBN Report lists 94 right now, unofficially:

Great Blue North Draft Report

There's no requirement for prospects to publicly announce, just to inform the NFL, so it's hard to tell for a few days. Also, prospects have 72 hours to back out (if they haven't signed with an agent), and there are usually a couple of guys who change their mind.

 

[mayoclinic]

I personally wouldn't touch Benjamin with a barge pole in the first - not that I'm disagreeing with your list mind).

As you know, I wasn't making personal judgments on any of the players.

And I personally agree with you on Benjamin. Terrific frame and devastating red zone potential, but he can't run a route worth a damn and his hands are suspect. Not to mention I'm not convinced he has the discipline and work ethic to succeed. I have him going in the late 1st in my mock, but give me Jordan Matthews, Brandin Cooks, Odell Beckham or Allen Robinson over Benjamin.

If he gets drafted in the Alshon Jeffrey range (46) he might actually put in some work and become a very good player. 1st round would be a huge risk. But his size and potential will cause someone to leap before they look closely enough.

 

[manxman2601]

As you know, I wasn't making personal judgments on any of the players.

And I personally agree with you on Benjamin. Terrific frame and devastating red zone potential, but he can't run a route worth a damn and his hands are suspect. Not to mention I'm not convinced he has the discipline and work ethic to succeed. I have him going in the late 1st in my mock, but give me Jordan Matthews, Brandin Cooks, Odell Beckham or Allen Robinson over Benjamin.

If he gets drafted in the Alshon Jeffrey range (46) he might actually put in some work and become a very good player. 1st round would be a huge risk. But his size and potential will cause someone to leap before they look closely enough.

Stephen Hill comp for Benjamin perhaps?

 

[mayoclinic]

Stephen Hill comp for Benjamin perhaps?

Maybe. Though I think Clemson WR Martavis Bennett is more likely to make a Hill-like rise into the 2nd round based on his size/speed ratio.

 

[manxman2601]

Maybe. Though I think Clemson WR Martavis Bennett is more likely to make a Hill-like rise into the 2nd round based on his size/speed ratio.

Give me Moncrief over either.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

It happens. Especially, when you write a thesis statement like that.

What are your thoughts on trading Gronkowski for a pick? My view is that he is injured too often. When healthy, he's amazing. Unfortunately, he's been bitten by the injury bug a lot. I love the guy, but his injury history and immaturity aren't winning games for us right now.

I'm thinking his trade value is still very high, and a team like Green Bay might be willing to part with a first rounder for him. They have a need for a TE and Gronk might fit the bill. He's certainly talented enough.

Take Green Bay's draft pick and trade back into the 2nd for ASJ while adding a pick?

Remarkably, there's almost no cap hit in doing so this year. That said, a first-rounder would be selling low. Anything short of two firsts is a non-starter in my book.