Do you think Malcolm Butler will get an extension this year?

[ctpatsfan77]

cuz it was that or an RFA tender....the cost would not have been much different either way for 2016

why would the pats pay butler market now and why would butler take less when in a year he can get a deal that makes up for it and then some?

they have him for another year before he's an RFA....they'll more likely deal with him then.....but then again, why pay someone 8-10M when you can get him for 2-3M for 2017......it's the way the business works, and both sides understand that.......butler does not come across as a revis type

As a counterpoint, keep in mind that when the Patriots do extensions, other than the signing bonus, they generally keep the remaining years of the original deal intact. IOW, let's say, for argument's sake, that Butler gets an extension. He'll still have a 2016 salary of about $600K; the $5M+ salary years wouldn't kick in until next year.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

I'd offer him the Chris Harris deal. Similar situation where both were UDFA, but played extremely well and proved themselves.

If I'm not mistaken Harris' annual average is around 8 million a season. This contract could look like a steal if Butler signs it because locking up a #1 corner with elite upside for 8 million doesn't happen often.

Guys like revis, Sherman, and Peterson are making like 12-14 million a season so if butler is making 8 we're in great shape cap wise to sign other good players.

Id sign him long term at $8m per in a heartbear before he gets any better. Hes ahead of where Asante was in year 2 and i believe his ceiling is higher. Eaaily can see him a top tier cb soon which would be a steal at 8m these days.

 

[everlong]

Yes, but a reminder that Butler becomes an RFA next year, not this year.

I know but I'd worry about Hightower, Collins, Butler and Jones all coming due at once and only having one franchise tag and the RFA tag not scaring teams off of Butler.

 

[Ivan]

I know but I'd worry about Hightower, Collins, Butler and Jones all coming due at once and only having one franchise tag and the RFA tag not scaring teams off of Butler.

They don't all come due at once, 2 come due next off-season and 2 more the off-season after that. They will have tags available and the cap will go up significantly in that time. There is literally nothing to worry about.

 

[rochrist]

Id sign him long term at $8m per in a heartbear before he gets any better. Hes ahead of where Asante was in year 2 and i believe his ceiling is higher. Eaaily can see him a top tier cb soon which would be a steal at 8m these days.

Asante was NEVER worth the money he wanted. Dude was allergic to tackles.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Asante was NEVER worth the money he wanted. Dude was allergic to tackles.

Not saying he was but looking at what he got when he became a top cover corner. Plus that was 8 years ago and good cbs get crazy money now. Butler can tackle and flat out better imo.

 

[everlong]

They don't all come due at once, 2 come due next off-season and 2 more the off-season after that. They will have tags available and the cap will go up significantly in that time. There is literally nothing to worry about.

Strategic planning must start now for Patriots with 'Big Four' on defense

That's why, in many ways, this offseason is as much about strategic planning with the "Big Four" on defense -- cornerback Malcolm Butler, defensive endChandler Jones and linebackers Jamie Collins and Dont'a Hightower. All have contracts that expire after the 2016 season, which gives the sides a full calendar year to explore extensions.

 

[Ivan]

Strategic planning must start now for Patriots with 'Big Four' on defense

That's why, in many ways, this offseason is as much about strategic planning with the "Big Four" on defense -- cornerback Malcolm Butler, defensive endChandler Jones and linebackers Jamie Collins and Dont'a Hightower. All have contracts that expire after the 2016 season, which gives the sides a full calendar year to explore extensions.

By Reiss calculations all of these deals are eminently doable. Collins is his highest hit and as I have said they can keep him for thrre years using 1 tag, which they will do of his demands are over there top.

No one has ever argued that they shouldn't be smart and strategic about getting these deals done, and the only argument I have made is that they shouldn't embrace the panic that many fans have engaged in with their " we have to trade Jones now to save Collins and Hightower......." BS. Saying they can get two done now and two next year is completely reasonable and a song approach given their respective contract status'. And if any want to offer to take the kind of team friendly deal Gronk made them by all means go for it.

The Patriots will be frontrunner for next season's Lombardi and they shouldn't get rid of important pieces to stockpile draft picks, it just doesn't make sense right now.

 

[IllegalContact]

As a counterpoint, keep in mind that when the Patriots do extensions, other than the signing bonus, they generally keep the remaining years of the original deal intact. IOW, let's say, for argument's sake, that Butler gets an extension. He'll still have a 2016 salary of about $600K; the $5M+ salary years wouldn't kick in until next year.

you make my point for me....there's no reason to worry about extending Butler now

 

[everlong]

By Reiss calculations all of these deals are eminently doable. Collins is his highest hit and as I have said they can keep him for thrre years using 1 tag, which they will do of his demands are over there top.

No one has ever argued that they shouldn't be smart and strategic about getting these deals done, and the only argument I have made is that they shouldn't embrace the panic that many fans have engaged in with their " we have to trade Jones now to save Collins and Hightower......." BS. Saying they can get two done now and two next year is completely reasonable and a song approach given their respective contract status'. And if any want to offer to take the kind of team friendly deal Gronk made them by all means go for it.

The Patriots will be frontrunner for next season's Lombardi and they shouldn't get rid of important pieces to stockpile draft picks, it just doesn't make sense right now.

I agree. My point has been they should attempt to get whichever they can done now so they aren't all due at once. If Butler is reasonable I'd prefer to get him done now rather than watch the Jets throw stupid money at him and then in 17 you're minus a top corner in one of the remaining prime Brady years.

Of the 4 if Jones walks oh well at least they get a 3rd round comp pick. I bet Hightower gets extended in the next few months. Then if you can get either Collins or Butler done now you've really set yourself up well. If Butler takes that next step and goes from a solid #1 into that Sherman/Petersen realm you could even franchise him vs the RFA first round tag. Yes more expensive but you're charging a really high price to steal him.

 

[Miguel]

I voted yes since extending Butler in 2016 is the Patriots' best chance to extend a potentially elite player at a substantial discount.

 

[Flash]

I don't know if this is a good idea but would it be better to extend Logan Ryan instead to a relatively smaller contract (ex. $5 million a year) and letting Butler walk? There is no doubt that Butler was better this year but Ryan was also decent as well, albeit less consistent. Butler would definitely command up to $8 million a year at least and there is no guarantee that he could extend next offseason immediately, he could test the market and get a higher offer somewhere else. By extending Ryan instead of Butler, we could allocate that cap space to somewhere else, such as another offensive linemen or a RB to complement Lewis. As long as we have McCourty and Chung leading the DBs our pass defense won't drop off significantly.

 

[rochrist]

Not saying he was but looking at what he got when he became a top cover corner. Plus that was 8 years ago and good cbs get crazy money now. Butler can tackle and flat out better imo.

Sure, I just hated Asante with a passion and can't let a mention of him go bye. I'm so sick of the 'BB was too cheap to pay him' BS. No, Bill was too SMART to pay him.

 

[n6249c]

Being an RFA is not leverage. The control is still in the hands of the team at that point.

Not so. All another team has to do is to craft a big-bucks contract with a poison pill. Or just throw enough money on the table to make it unpalatable to match. Say, CB franchise tag dollars (around $13mm this year).

 

[n6249c]

Chris Harris also signed his deal after playing out two cheaper years.

Butler has no negotiating leverage. He can either play out his team options on severely under market rates, of he takes the long term security under value. That would be a similar path that gronk took, which would seem to make the most sense for both sides.

It's not all about negotiating leverage. It's about a mutual desire to get a deal done.

If the mutual desire is there, the leverage comes into play in determining the parameters of the deal.

Butler has leverage. It's simple, if the deal is not to his liking he doesn't sign it. Same for the team.

Factors that motivate doing a deal now, for Butler it's not necessarily just below market rates, it's also the risk. What if he decides he wants to go for max value, and then gets hurt, blows out an ACL and misses the entire season coming up on his contract year? Certainty of return is just as important, maybe moreso, than rate of return.

 

[mgteich]

As a counterpoint, keep in mind that when the Patriots do extensions, other than the signing bonus, they generally keep the remaining years of the original deal intact. IOW, let's say, for argument's sake, that Butler gets an extension. He'll still have a 2016 salary of about $600K; the $5M+ salary years wouldn't kick in until next year.

While this is true, he would get the bonus money on this new deal.

 

[n6249c]

it is not going to happen.......because the pats don't want to pay money before then need to and it's not in butler's best interest to take substantially less money just so he gets some a year earlier......he got $600K this year....he's not starving

If that is true the Patriots are dumb. We know they are not dumb.

It's called "Net Present Value" (NPV) and it's a tool very familiar to folks who work with money. It's simple, it is the value of a future amount of money expressed as the equivalent value of money today. It's based on the idea that cash in hand today is worth more than an expectation of cash in the future.

It factors in things like inflation, internal rate of return, opportunity costs, a whole bunch of things, but the math is straightforward and well understood. I'd bet Jonathan Kraft can calculate it in his sleep. A more sophisticated analysis (which I'd be very surprised if the Pats aren't doing) would also factor in the risk of being outbid for an RFA tender, etc.

I did some half-assed NPV computations using assumptions I pulled out of thin air, or somewhere the sun don't shine, whatever, just to get an idea of how things might stack up. Using the current prime rate (3.5%) and close approximations to RFA first round tender and CB franchise tag salaries, I came up with an NPV for no extension of about $29,000,000 through 2019. Assuming a three year extension averaging $8.5mm with next yezr unchanged the NPV that I calculated was about $25.8mm cost to the team. Increasing the salary for next year to 8 million made that NPV about 33 million cost to the team. So it looks to me like they can likely find some common ground, if they want to.

Other side, for Butler it means he could be leaving 3 or 4 million on the table, out of a potential 30 million deal, but he assumes the risk of injury eroding that 30 million and quite possibly costing him more than the discount to extend now. One thing is sure, if he extends now he won't ever be frying chicken at Popeye's again, unless it's to show his employees how it's done after he buys the franchise. Basically he can have financial security for life before next season, if he wants. Depends on what he wants.

 

[IllegalContact]

they are not dumb.......because how you described it is not how it works

but thanks for wasting your time

If that is true the Patriots are dumb. We know they are not dumb.

It's called "Net Present Value" (NPV) and it's a tool very familiar to folks who work with money. It's simple, it is the value of a future amount of money expressed as the equivalent value of money today. It's based on the idea that cash in hand today is worth more than an expectation of cash in the future.

It factors in things like inflation, internal rate of return, opportunity costs, a whole bunch of things, but the math is straightforward and well understood. I'd bet Jonathan Kraft can calculate it in his sleep. A more sophisticated analysis (which I'd be very surprised if the Pats aren't doing) would also factor in the risk of being outbid for an RFA tender, etc.

I did some half-assed NPV computations using assumptions I pulled out of thin air, or somewhere the sun don't shine, whatever, just to get an idea of how things might stack up. Using the current prime rate (3.5%) and close approximations to RFA first round tender and CB franchise tag salaries, I came up with an NPV for no extension of about $29,000,000 through 2019. Assuming a three year extension averaging $8.5mm with next yezr unchanged the NPV that I calculated was about $25.8mm cost to the team. Increasing the salary for next year to 8 million made that NPV about 33 million cost to the team. So it looks to me like they can likely find some common ground, if they want to.

Other side, for Butler it means he could be leaving 3 or 4 million on the table, out of a potential 30 million deal, but he assumes the risk of injury eroding that 30 million and quite possibly costing him more than the discount to extend now. One thing is sure, if he extends now he won't ever be frying chicken at Popeye's again, unless it's to show his employees how it's done after he buys the franchise. Basically he can have financial security for life before next season, if he wants. Depends on what he wants.

 

[Nunchucks]

If I was Butler, I would hold out for a new contract.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Not so. All another team has to do is to craft a big-bucks contract with a poison pill. Or just throw enough money on the table to make it unpalatable to match. Say, CB franchise tag dollars (around $13mm this year).

IIRC, the most recent CBA did away with poison pills. The new CBA doesn't require an exact match of the contract, but merely a match of the "principal terms," and anything that the new team wouldn't have to comply with is not a principal term.