Devin McCourty

[Fencer]

I can't find a McCourty thread anywhere near the top of the forum, which is pretty weird.

Besides the obvious -- he's a team leader, he says he wants to come back, he's an obvious candidate to be franchised, etc. -- what else can we say?

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/page/hotread150212/early-look-top-free-agents-2015 says

One-liner: The 2014 free-agent contracts secured by Jairus Byrd (New Orleans Saints) and T.J. Ward (Denver Broncos), as well as the market-level deals signed by the Seattle Seahawks' duo of Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor, point toward a high value for McCourty if the New England Patriots let him hit the market.

Williamson's report: "I'd be shocked if the Patriots let him go. He came into the league as a first-round corner. He's a really good cover guy as a safety. He can play deep center field. He spied on Russell Wilson in the Super Bowl. He can play man coverage versus tight ends and then move to single-high. He's exactly what [Patriots coach] Bill Belichick wants.'"

Stat to note: McCourty isn't a flashy playmaker in the Patriots' scheme, but his balance as an all-around player is evident. Pro Football Focus credited McCourty with 21 tackles, and just two missed tackles, against the run in 2014.

The parts I bolded are news to me.

Also, I'm not totally sure how McCourty is used when he's not playing Cover 1/lone deep safety/centerfield. I think he sometimes switches to CB, but I'm not sure in exactly which packages. I want to say dime, with Harmon and Wilson at the safeties, but I'm not really sure.

Further -- what are his ST duties at this point? He's not returning kicks any more. I think he still covers them. Is he still blocking the gunner on punt returns?

 

[Miguel]

http://www.patsfans.com/salary-cap/?p=1005 is my blog post

 

[patfanken]

I agree with the initial premise that McCourty wants to come back. His brother stated on a couple of occasions that it will take a lot to pry him out of NE. But that being said, I think it is going to take a top of the market deal ($9MM/yr) when all is said and done for the following reasons.

1. As the NFL passing game has evolved the safety position has increased in importance.

2. McCourty offers the rare combination of skills that is needed by an ideal S these days. He has the range to get to the sidelines to help over the top. He has the coverage skills to take on man coverage when necessary. He tackles well in coverage, and is an asset in the run game when need be. Most importantly he is durable (cross fingers), because none of those skills means much if he isn't on the field to use them.

3. He is smart, understands the defensive concepts Patricial wants to implement, and knows where everyone else needs to be.

4. Having someone with his skill set and his knowledge of the game allows the Pats to be at their most dynamic and flexible. This is key for a defense designed to be a week to week operation.

5. IMO he would be the key necessary piece of the secondary if Revis doesn't return. As a top of the line S he can help erase the mistakes of others, as well as being a possible Revis replacement at CB

Those individual ratings Miguel offered are difficult to gauge, as they are so subjective and wildly different as shown, but who cares. It's NOT about a player's ability relative to others in the league, its ALL about his value to his respective team. McCourty is the piece of the puzzle that allows guys like Revis and Browner to be able to "do their thing". See #4 and repeat it 3 times

If you look at Miguel's contract example for $9MM/yr, it looks like a pretty sweet deal for both sides. As proposed it starts with a $4MM cap number his first year, and doesn't get above 9MM until the 3rd year of the deal. Then, if I read it right, when the cap number get to $11 and $13MM in the final 2 years of the deal, they are the same years when the Pats can gain some cap savings by releasing him (thus having some renegotiation leverage in those final years).

So in review, a $9mm.yr deal would give the Pats a bit of cap relieve this year, and not become onerous until 2018, when they Pats have some options, and the cap is likely to be significantly higher (if Goodell doesn't screw the league up)

Another thing I found interesting in Miguel's link was that at $8.5/yr deal would make him the 3rd highest paid S in the league, while an $8MM deal would make him 5th. So if the Pats are negotiating in that area, added to his desire to stay, there is no reason to believe a deal can't get done. However they might have to franchise him in the short run because the Revis deal is going to have to come first.

 

[patchick]

When was the last time a top-level starter coming off a rookie contract didn't get a second contract from the Patriots? It would shock me. McCourty is absolutely perfect for this defense -- with Revis as much as without.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Call me the resident d-bag contrarian but I don't see the Pats franchising or paying DMC $9m AAR or a signing bonus/guarantees north of $25m. I think hes a helluva player and I want to see him back here.

I think it's 50/50 he returns.

 

[McClusky]

I don't see McCourty as a $9 million APY guy. To me he's the guy you love on his first contract, but might hate on his 2nd. If we do that we might regret it similar to the contract we gave to Mayo. McCourty is a solid safety relative to a lot of his peers, probably one of the 3-10 best in the NFL, but his real tangible impact on games from a WAR type perspective is not $9 millon worth. Harrison Smith and ETIII are the only safeties IMO that are. He's solid, but unspectacular. In watching coaches film the vast majority of the time he and Harmon are playing in cover 1 they are virtually indistinguishable. He'll flash some elite range a handful of times each season, but his instincts are not good enough to make a consistent enough impact.

If you're going to pay someone that kind of money you need to be sure he's one of the most important guys in winning you a game. If we're being honest with ourselves he really wasn't this past season. We were unspectacular against the deep pass despite having elite CB's.

This is not me saying that I don't want McCourty back, but his true value lies in the $5.5 to $7 million range not $9 million. If he wants that much lets turn his spot to Harmon, and use some of that money to bring in Franklin/Bolling/Iupati to keep our geriatric QB healthy, improve our run game, and make sure the transition to Jimmy G goes as smoothe as possible.

As a SB champion we have a little more talent than we can sustain over the long term. To me if McCourty is a $9 million player we can't have a defense with Revis, Jones, Hightower, and Collins in a couple of years, and my preference is for all of those guys before McCourty.

 

[patchick]

If we do that we might regret it similar to the contract we gave to Mayo.

Huh...to me, any regret about Mayo's $$ lies 100% in injuries (and he had been very durable previously). I have no problem with the contract he was given.

 

[McClusky]

Huh...to me, any regret about Mayo's $$ lies 100% in injuries (and he had been very durable previously). I have no problem with the contract he was given.

He was a little overpaid even before the injuries. He has the 2nd largest contract of any ILB in the NFL. I'd say even pre-injury Mayo wasn't as good as Hightower or Collins. I think the restructure or cut discussion would be happening even if he didn't get hurt.

 

[50-yard-line]

I suspect the lack of a thread is the confidence that he'll be back.

If they don't get a deal done, they'll franchise him, I believe, to buy both sides more time. I didn't see anyone ready to step in.

The idea that McCourty's worth 5.5-7 million is way off. On the market, he'll exceed 8m AAV.

 

[McClusky]

I suspect the lack of a thread is the confidence that he'll be back.

If they don't get a deal done, they'll franchise him, I believe, to buy both sides more time. I didn't see anyone ready to step in.

The idea that McCourty's worth 5.5-7 million is way off. On the market, he'll exceed 8m AAV.

I don't at all doubt that. The question is whether or not his worth to the Pats is that much. In don't think it is. If McCourty is willing to be paid like TJ Ward or Rashad Jones by all means keep him, but paying him like ETIII or Byrd means that he's a franchise type defender, but I don't think he is that.

 

[Oswlek]

I don't see McCourty as a $9 million APY guy. To me he's the guy you love on his first contract, but might hate on his 2nd. If we do that we might regret it similar to the contract we gave to Mayo. McCourty is a solid safety relative to a lot of his peers, probably one of the 3-10 best in the NFL

Devin is without a doubt one of the best FSs in the league and deserves to be paid as such.

He was a little overpaid even before the injuries. He has the 2nd largest contract of any ILB in the NFL. I'd say even pre-injury Mayo wasn't as good as Hightower or Collins. I think the restructure or cut discussion would be happening even if he didn't get hurt.

I agree that Mayo was overpaid and that he'd probably need to restructure heading into this year, but none of that has any relevance to McCourty's situation. If you are going to go that route, then the logical argument is that NE should never pay anyone a top contract.

Since I doubt that is what your point really is, the discrepancy lies in your assessment of McCourty as a player. I, for one, vehemently disagree with your "solid" assessment of Devin, "outstanding", "elite" or "fantastic" are far more applicable terms.

 

[Oswlek]

I suspect the lack of a thread is the confidence that he'll be back.

Or just a lack of anything really noteworthy to discuss. Does there really need to be a thread on every subject imaginable?

 

[nabwong]

I think Dmac is worth the investment.

1. He is a first class person. Not footballer, PERSON.
2. He knows everyone's job.
3. He can play every down.
4. He's not likely to give less effort after a payday.
5. We will not be able to replace him with someone just as capable for the price.
6. Revis likes him.
7. BB likes him.
8. He has never complained once.
9. He's willing to do anything to help the team, eg moving from cb to fs. i.e. No ego
10. He is durable.

 

[JMC00]

Rashad Jones

Cap hits of
$7.7m
$8.2m
$8m

Over the next 3 years.

 

[Jimke]

I agree with the initial premise that McCourty wants to come back. His brother stated on a couple of occasions that it will take a lot to pry him out of NE. But that being said, I think it is going to take a top of the market deal ($9MM/yr) when all is said and done for the following reasons.

1. As the NFL passing game has evolved the safety position has increased in importance.

2. McCourty offers the rare combination of skills that is needed by an ideal S these days. He has the range to get to the sidelines to help over the top. He has the coverage skills to take on man coverage when necessary. He tackles well in coverage, and is an asset in the run game when need be. Most importantly he is durable (cross fingers), because none of those skills means much if he isn't on the field to use them.

3. He is smart, understands the defensive concepts Patricial wants to implement, and knows where everyone else needs to be.

4. Having someone with his skill set and his knowledge of the game allows the Pats to be at their most dynamic and flexible. This is key for a defense designed to be a week to week operation.

5. IMO he would be the key necessary piece of the secondary if Revis doesn't return. As a top of the line S he can help erase the mistakes of others, as well as being a possible Revis replacement at CB

Those individual ratings Miguel offered are difficult to gauge, as they are so subjective and wildly different as shown, but who cares. It's NOT about a player's ability relative to others in the league, its ALL about his value to his respective team. McCourty is the piece of the puzzle that allows guys like Revis and Browner to be able to "do their thing". See #4 and repeat it 3 times

If you look at Miguel's contract example for $9MM/yr, it looks like a pretty sweet deal for both sides. As proposed it starts with a $4MM cap number his first year, and doesn't get above 9MM until the 3rd year of the deal. Then, if I read it right, when the cap number get to $11 and $13MM in the final 2 years of the deal, they are the same years when the Pats can gain some cap savings by releasing him (thus having some renegotiation leverage in those final years).

So in review, a $9mm.yr deal would give the Pats a bit of cap relieve this year, and not become onerous until 2018, when they Pats have some options, and the cap is likely to be significantly higher (if Goodell doesn't screw the league up)

Another thing I found interesting in Miguel's link was that at $8.5/yr deal would make him the 3rd highest paid S in the league, while an $8MM deal would make him 5th. So if the Pats are negotiating in that area, added to his desire to stay, there is no reason to believe a deal can't get done. However they might have to franchise him in the short run because the Revis deal is going to have to come first.

The trouble is that the Revis deal might not come until the last minute or not at all. The decision
to franchise McCourty has to be made by March 2nd. I would suspect that players will have to
be cut or contracts adjusted to franchise McCourty.

 

[patriot1136]

I hope we bring him back. But that said, if we don't, who replaces him? Harmon?

 

[mgteich]

The trouble is that the Revis deal might not come until the last minute or not at all. The decision
to franchise McCourty has to be made by March 2nd. I would suspect that players will have to
be cut or contracts adjusted to franchise McCourty.

1)Revis will NOT be paid the $12M. Let's start with that. Then, we can figure that there will be a cap savings of from $12M-$20M.

2) I do NOT expect Wilfork's cap hit to be anywhere $8.5M on March 10th.

So, yes, there may need to be a restructure before March 10th, and his name is Wilfork. Even if Wilfork is staying, there will be a restructure to reduce the 2015 cap hit.

 

[ashley]

I think from what we have been hearing the Pat's want him back and he want's to be back. I think other than Revis, he is the top priority for us. The secondary was so good and he was a big reason for that. We have nobody that could replace him.

 

[mgteich]

Call me the resident d-bag contrarian but I don't see the Pats franchising or paying DMC $9m AAR or a signing bonus/guarantees north of $25m. I think hes a helluva player and I want to see him back here.

I think it's 50/50 he returns.

I will again ask patchick's question: Who is the last top level starter NOT signed after coming off his rookie contract.

 

[mgteich]

I can't find a McCourty thread anywhere near the top of the forum, which is pretty weird.

Perhaps we all expect McCourty to be re-signed or franchised and there isn't any more to discuss.