Devin McCourty

[patchick]

Are you including playing under the franchise tag number as the second contract?

Sorry, I meant to include that in the earlier post -- I think a franchise case like Asante Samuel should count, since it shows a desire to retain the player and a willingness to pay serious money. (Plus even that example was 8 years ago.)

 

[Miguel]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...014-allpro-teams-analysis-of-the-full-rosters
shows that McCourty getting 2 All-Pro votes.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I will again ask patchick's question: Who is the last top level starter NOT signed after coming off his rookie contract.

Top level starter is a broad term. Based on my research below they have kept most of the players that have seen significant playing time but for a number of reasons have let a few key starters walk.

2011- Vereen and Ridley were drafted but will both hit FA. From that same draft, Cannon was signed and started a a good chunk of 2013 after Vollmer went down. Solder issigned but carries a $8m nut for 2015 and should be restructured.

2010- Spikes walked but I think that was mutual.

2009- Chung and Vollmer. Chung for various reasons and Vollmer hit FA, then was signed. Certainly his situation was durability- not performance.

2008- None. They signed Slater and Mayo.

2007- Merriweather. Good riddance

2006- LoMo. Serviceable but was done.

2005- Hobbs

2004- Watson

2003- A$ante (but was franchised)

2002- Graham, Branch, Givens.

2001-

 

[ashley]

The NE pass D is not Super Bowl caliber without Revis.

True, but can you imagine this defense without both Revis and McCourty...now that would be really scary lol

 

[Wheelman]

Another McCourty thread and another Spiral sighting...surprise surprise...

 

[patchick]

Top level starter is a broad term. Based on my research below they have kept most of the players that have seen significant playing time but for a number of reasons have let a few key starters walk.

I'm a little puzzled by your list, which doesn't seem to include players like Gronkowski, Hernandez and Wilfork, all of whom were re-signed to significant deals.

As for "top-level starter," suppose we let the market decide. When was the last time a Patriots player at the conclusion of his rookie contract was signed to multiyear deal with, say, $8 million+ in guarantees by a team other than the Patriots?

 

[Marinlik]

Another McCourty thread and another Spiral sighting...surprise surprise...

Don't forget Triumph and his/her personal vendetta against McCourty and the fact that he isn't often seen(which according to most people is kind of a good thing for a single high safety unless you get beaten deep). If only McCourty was worse in coverage so opposing QBs threw deep more, then DMac would have more chances to tackle, and most important of all, make Triumph happy!

 

[Miguel]

Gronk and Hernandez were extended before the end of their rookie deals.

 

[patchick]

Gronk and Hernandez were extended before the end of their rookie deals.

...just as some of the players on his list, like Maroney and Meriweather, were cut before the end of their rookie deals. IMO being cut early pretty definitively marks the player as "not a top-level starter."

 

[Miguel]

Doubt that the Patriots will hold McCourty's lack of Pro Bowls against him when they, not him, were the ones who could have fixed his listing.

 

[The Gr8est]

Doubt that the Patriots will hold McCourty's lack of Pro Bowls against him when they, not him, were the ones who could have fixed his listing.

McCourty would have been more noticeable in a good way, if the refs could refrain from throwing bogus flags when he makes game-changing pick 6s.

 

[Deus Irae]

McCourty will be playing for the Patriots next season, barring illness or injury.

 

[Deus Irae]

Here is the thing, when you make an objective assesment of the Patriots defense, while it played the best it has in a long time and was pretty good this season, it never really was quite the sum of what its percevied parts were.

I mean think about how some of the players are described as:

Revis: Top 2 CB in the League
McCourty: Outstanding, Elite Safety
Browner: Strong Boundary Corner
Wilfork: Psuedo Elite Run Stuffer
Hightower & Collins: 2 of the best and most dynamic LBers in the league
Ninkovich: Clutch well rounded veteran
Jones: Above average pass rusher
Siliga, Chung, Arrington, Ayers, and Branch all useful rotational pieces.

With all of these things you'd expect us to be more like Seattle, but we were 12th in Defensive DVOA. We were questionable against the long ball this year. I think we have some elite talent to build on, but lets not overrate every single player.

I was once like you. After the 2012 season I called McCourty an elite safety and had ET and him 1 and 1a in my eye. In 2013 when he wasn't making the splash plays he did in year 1 at safety I assumed that he was making underappreciated plays that we don't really see, so I went to the coaches tape to find some examples. To be honest after watching enough of it, I was pretty underwhelmed with the actual impact McCourty had on the game. He played solid consistent football, tackled well, and looked more dynamic when walked down in coverage, but as a single high (where he plays most of the time), he's virtually indistinguishable from Harmon.

So now as I look at the young talent the Pats have relative to their cap flexibilty, I realize that the Pats don't have the room to pay multiple guys like elite players on that side of the ball. Which is why for me, I want to make sure the guys who are really adding a tangible amount of WAR like Revis, Hightower, and Collins are the ones who get paid. If McCourty is ok being paid like an above average starter by all means lets do it, but he's not an elite player.

I'm not against paying our guys, but I think we need to be careful. That Mayo contract to me is a good example of who not to overpay. Heady and consistent guys are great, but they can never substitute for true playmakers.

Your post is an excellent example of lousy reasoning and over-reliance on statistics. Simple truth:

Starting with Browner's return from suspension, the Patriots were 5th in the league in points allowed. They allowed more than 25 points only once from then on, and that was 26 points, in Green Bay. They were #1 in ppg allowed in the playoffs, as well. This happened despite the loss of Mayo and the underwhelming DL play.

And that's mostly because having Revis and McCourty allowed the Patriots to game plan on defense in ways that hadn't happened since the days of Law/Harrison/Wilson

 

[Miguel]

While doing research for my next update to my McCourty blog found these free agents rankings
1.) USAToday - 10th
2.) ESPN-5th
3.) NY Post - 5th
4.) AOL.Com- 9th

 

[McClusky]

Your post is an excellent example of lousy reasoning and over-reliance on statistics. Simple truth:

Starting with Browner's return from suspension, the Patriots were 5th in the league in points allowed. They allowed more than 25 points only once from then on, and that was 26 points, in Green Bay. They were #1 in ppg allowed in the playoffs, as well. This happened despite the loss of Mayo and the underwhelming DL play.

And that's mostly because having Revis and McCourty allowed the Patriots to game plan on defense in ways that hadn't happened since the days of Law/Harrison/Wilson

Quite on the contrary, I can guarantee that my opinion is formed with about as much hard data and tape consideration as virtually anybody's. I didn't really form this opinion through any other means other than watching McCourty looking for examples of him flashing the kind of plays that people seem to believe he makes. If someone wants to find me the games and plays where he's flashing these skills on the regular please point me to it, but as of now when we're talking about true "elite" players who are worth significant cap allocation, I just have not seen the kind of play that warrants it.

 

[Deus Irae]

Quite on the contrary, I can guarantee that my opinion is formed with about as much hard data and tape consideration as virtually anybody's.

We've got a plethora of people around here who access, and use, the data. Knowing when to stop using it is as important as knowing when to use it. (See PFF)

I didn't really form this opinion through any other means other than watching McCourty looking for examples of him flashing the kind of plays that people seem to believe he makes. If someone wants to find me the games and plays where he's flashing these skills on the regular please point me to it, but as of now when we're talking about true "elite" players who are worth significant cap allocation, I just have not seen the kind of play that warrants it.

Ok, so the real problem is that you can't evaluate worth a damn. Got it.

 

[meatface]

McCourty will be playing for the Patriots next season, barring illness or injury.

I really hope so, it would suck to lose him to a team like the colts

 

[Deus Irae]

Since McCourty became a full time safety (2012):

McCourty
8 ints
5 FF
177 tackles

Thomas
9
7
208

Little difference beyond the tackle numbers, a fair amount of which is because Thomas has changed his role, and been more active in that department, in the past two seasons. The biggest plus of both Earl Thomas and Devin McCourty is that teams avoid throwing near them. That, unsurprisingly, lowers their overall numbers.

 

[McClusky]

We've got a plethora of people around here who access, and use, the data. Knowing when to stop using it is as important as knowing when to use it. (See PFF)




Ok, so the real problem is that you can't evaluate worth a damn. Got it.

No disrespect, but if anyone here is using data incorrectly it is you. I presented a couple of factual points, the Pats were 12th in DVOA, were a middle of the pack YPG and turnover team, and while they ranked high in PPG they were still 7th and almost 4ppg off of Seattle. Those are baseline numbers, only including games where the Pats were close to 100% is disingenuous because other teams played stretches without key members as well. Being at the bottom of the PPG list while factual isn't a strong point when taken into context because it was driven more by the game at Indy than anything else. I think the Pats would be the first to tell you that the Seattle game and the Baltimore games were not their best efforts.

The Pats are not an elite defense yet, they're very good and got much better, but there are still a handful that I would take over ours. Not everyone is quite as good as some of the fans think.

In terms of the analysis part we'll have to agree to disagree. Relax man, no need to get so fired up over a perceived $2 million difference in FA value.

 

[Deus Irae]

No disrespect, but if anyone here is using data incorrectly it is you.

Yeah.... No. Good comedy, though. As I pointed out already, they were 5th once Browner entered the lineup, yet you're harping on "7th!". That's just one example of why your analysis sucks.

Those are baseline numbers, only including games where the Pats were close to 100% is disingenuous because other teams played stretches without key members as well.

If you can't accept why it's significant to use Browner's return as the starting point, you're either trolling or just clueless about what was happening in the team's secondary. That's not looking at DL/LB issues (i.e. Mayo going down soon after Browner's return). That's not even pointing out that the Patriots only allowed 16.4ppg after they had the bye week to fully incorporate Browner following his return (bye week was after week 9), which would have put the Patriots at #2 in defensive pp6, just .5ppg behind the Seahawks. That's strictly using Browner's return.