Defensive Front Seven In Fine Shape

[mgteich]

With that offer, I doubt that Talib's agent would even return the team's call, certainly not before he tested the waters of free agency.

I'd be interested in knowing where they stand on this one, but my guess is something in the short end range of 1-2 yrs and around 5-6 million aav.

 

[supafly]

Rogers contract was signed last year. The market can't have overinflated itself so much in one year that a player who isn't as good, had a PED suspension, has numerous off the field issues, and was given away by his last team is now getitng the same deal as the better guy who's nose is clean.

All great points Andy. I do think that Talib and his agent will try to take advantage of his opportunity here which ended up as a great second chance for him.

This is a team with maximum exposure and many big matchups and nationally televised games. I think that during Talib's time here they were on the game of the week or primetime national TV in 7 of 9 of his opportunities:

--Indy CBS game of the week
--NYJ thanksgiving primetime
--Miami
--Houston primetime
--SF primetime
--Jax
--Miami CBS game of the week

Houston playoff--primetime
Baltimore playoff--primetime

That's 5 of 9 primetime appearances and 2 other CBS games that attracted the majority of the country. With the kind of media attention and kudos that he got from just about everyone ( except Matt Chatham ) I think that he shot up in some sort of folklore fame around the country.

I think that he and his agent will be trying to take full advantage of this, and that he may go at least a week or so into free agency, if not a little longer. Ultimately, I still don't think he ends up back here, and that someone else overpays.

You are right the more I think about it. The Carlos Rogers contract may not be in his range. I am concerned that someone else may offer 3/20 or something like that. If they happened to throw a dummy year at the end it could look much better and end up being the 4/25 or so that we initially spoke of, although you will likely disagree. Either way it still isn't the 4/29 that Rogers received, so I may have overvalued it but I still think it's a very good place to compare at any rate.

 

[supafly]

With that offer, I doubt that Talib's agent would even return the team's call, certainly not before he tested the waters of free agency.

I absolutely agree with you regarding he and his agent's demands and the way that they handle it (see above post).

I am simply stating what I think the NEP would be interested in, and while of course that is always going to be purely speculative, past patterns for players with these kinds of concerns usually equate to much shorter type deals.

I just can't see Belichick shelling out a longer term deal for Talib, at least not yet. He may want a prove it year (which may equate to a chance for both sides) or something incentive laden.

On top of that, I'd also have a hard time seeing anything above 6 million per yr max, which would put him in the "Bodden range" with a lesser number of years.

Think about it, as great as Bodden did they still weren't ready to go above 4/22, and even then it was drawn out for what seemed like forever. IIRC I think that maybe Bodden even claimed that he took a bit less to stay, but I could be mistaken. I don't see Talib reaching that here, although anyone else could offer that for sure.

 

[tonyto3690]

So you want every free agent you target to laugh at your offer?

Honestly I squeezed some to get Moore in there because the premise of the exercise was that we spend both high picks on front 7 and not safety. In my mock offseason we draft a safety high and that leaves 5 million in cap space to pay more realistically.

EDIT:
I also forgot about Armsted as Andy pointed out. With a first rounder, Love, Deaderick and Armsted, I probably would have left out Starks in hindsight and saved some more there.

And lastly of course, the cap hits of contracts are rarely perfectly even throughout. Could just as well have easily said herp derp I'm a tanny, BACKLOADED EVERYTHING.

 

[Ring 6]

Quote:

Originally Posted by AndyJohnson

Rogers contract was signed last year. The market can't have overinflated itself so much in one year that a player who isn't as good, had a PED suspension, has numerous off the field issues, and was given away by his last team is now getitng the same deal as the better guy who's nose is clean.

All great points Andy. I do think that Talib and his agent will try to take advantage of his opportunity here which ended up as a great second chance for him.

This is a team with maximum exposure and many big matchups and nationally televised games. I think that during Talib's time here they were on the game of the week or primetime national TV in 7 of 9 of his opportunities:

--Indy CBS game of the week
--NYJ thanksgiving primetime
--Miami
--Houston primetime
--SF primetime
--Jax
--Miami CBS game of the week

Houston playoff--primetime
Baltimore playoff--primetime

That's 5 of 9 primetime appearances and 2 other CBS games that attracted the majority of the country. With the kind of media attention and kudos that he got from just about everyone ( except Matt Chatham ) I think that he shot up in some sort of folklore fame around the country.

I think that he and his agent will be trying to take full advantage of this, and that he may go at least a week or so into free agency, if not a little longer. Ultimately, I still don't think he ends up back here, and that someone else overpays.

You are right the more I think about it. The Carlos Rogers contract may not be in his range. I am concerned that someone else may offer 3/20 or something like that. If they happened to throw a dummy year at the end it could look much better and end up being the 4/25 or so that we initially spoke of, although you will likely disagree. Either way it still isn't the 4/29 that Rogers received, so I may have overvalued it but I still think it's a very good place to compare at any rate.

Are you really saying that you think teams base contacts on how many times the got was on TV? Casual fans don't offer contacts, teams view Game film and grade players. Rogers is better and doesn't have baggage.


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[Ring 6]

Quote:

Originally Posted by mgteich

With that offer, I doubt that Talib's agent would even return the team's call, certainly not before he tested the waters of free agency.

I absolutely agree with you regarding he and his agent's demands and the way that they handle it (see above post).

I am simply stating what I think the NEP would be interested in, and while of course that is always going to be purely speculative, past patterns for players with these kinds of concerns usually equate to much shorter type deals.

I just can't see Belichick shelling out a longer term deal for Talib, at least not yet. He may want a prove it year (which may equate to a chance for both sides) or something incentive laden.

On top of that, I'd also have a hard time seeing anything above 6 million per yr max, which would put him in the "Bodden range" with a lesser number of years.

Think about it, as great as Bodden did they still weren't ready to go above 4/22, and even then it was drawn out for what seemed like forever. IIRC I think that maybe Bodden even claimed that he took a bit less to stay, but I could be mistaken. I don't see Talib reaching that here, although anyone else could offer that for sure.

He can take a 2 year deal then add 2 or 3 more with a big salary to protect the team and let Talib get the aav to save face when he realizes no one will give him a legit standard long term deal due to his baggage


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[Ring 6]

I'm with Urgent. Talent upgrades in the Front "Seven" are needed more for sub packages than in base.

It so happens we've had decent talent luck in recent years with base or 3-down Front 7 players, e.g. Jones, Ninkovich, the one-year Carter/Anderson wonders, etc., and of course the current starting LBs. It hasn't been so good for sub (Pryor's been injured, Fletcher missed last year, the S-as-LB guys kept getting injured, Haynesworth's best shot to star was there, etc., all the way back to Wright's concussions)

we start ninkovich and love in the base. How can that but be a problem screaming out for attention when we can't get pressure on the
Qb?


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[Kontradiction]

Of course you know thats not what I am saying.
Trying to create a defense that relies on intimidating recievers in a league where hitting receivers draws penalties, fines and suspensions is an archaic approach. It is not a 'soft' approach to say that I want to stop the pass by defending it better instead of letting them catch it so we can hit them and most likely get a penalty.

Of course you want to cover better. That goes without saying. Toward the end of the year, our defense improved in covering better. But teams still weren't afraid to exploit the middle of the field against us because they knew McCourty and Gregory weren't going to make them pay. Contrast that with how much success we had going over the middle against the Ravens with Pollard and Reed back there.

This could be the most incorect statement ever uttered on this board. Please show me all of these examples where our receivers were hit, then becamse afraid of getting hit again so they ****ied out.

Off the top of my head? 2008 against the Steelers, 2010 regular season against the Jets, 2010 postseason against the Jets, and this year against the Ravens. Not saying our receivers ****ed out, but Welker was less of a factor in those games after the hits than he was before then. But perhaps you'd like a Patriots example? 2010 against the Ravens after Meriweather cleaned Heap's clock. But please, feel free to believe that a hard hitting safety doesn't change an offense's approach. There are literally decades of historical evidence arguing against you.

You are just so, so wrong. On top of that even if you would accept that belief, there are maybe 2 hits like that in a game, even from the teams that emphasize it.

I'm not wrong. And I can tell by your response that you know it, but are arguing anyway.

That is incorrect.

Tell me then, who in the AFC had a more physical secondary than Baltimore? Houston, Indy, Cincy, Denver, or New England? Who in the NFC had a more physical secondary than San Fran? Atlanta, Washington, Green Bay, Seattle, or Minnesota?

 

[supafly]

Are you really saying that you think teams base contacts on how many times the got was on TV? Casual fans don't offer contacts, teams view Game film and grade players. Rogers is better and doesn't have baggage.


Posted from Patsfans.com App for Android

Of course not...not even close.

I am saying that I think that Talib and his agent realize that coming to Foxborough was the perfect opportunity at a second chance, and all of the extreme media hype, constant announcer hype about how he "changed the entire defense," and insane amount of countrywide games certainly boosted his stock around the NFL.

Coming to a high profile, successful playoff team like this with constant media attention in a positive way (that was insane and extreme) certainly bodes well for a player like Aqib Talib, who basically now has a shot at going from the outhouse to the penthouse in only 8 weeks.

I'm not disputing your contractual perspective on what he's worth at all, actually quite the contrary. What I am saying is that he is going to try and use this second chance to his advantage, and that things set up well for him to do so.

I don't believe that is going to be enough to warrant anywhere close to the kind of money that many think, but just the fact that we're suddenly having all of these conversations not just here, but in the media---proves my point dramatically.

Talib has been an overhyped machine and I explained some of the reasons why I think that happened. The extreme luck of his being on national tv in 7/9 games here only adds to that thought.

He boosted himself from a player who was under suspension and in extreme danger of being cut to suddenly surging as the "#2 CB on the free agent market."

 

[Ring 6]

Quote:

Originally Posted by AndyJohnson

Are you really saying that you think teams base contacts on how many times the got was on TV? Casual fans don't offer contacts, teams view Game film and grade players. Rogers is better and doesn't have baggage.


Posted from Patsfans.com App for Android

Of course not...not even close.

I am saying that I think that Talib and his agent realize that coming to Foxborough was the perfect opportunity at a second chance, and all of the extreme media hype, constant announcer hype about how he "changed the entire defense," and insane amount of countrywide games certainly boosted his stock around the NFL.

Coming to a high profile, successful playoff team like this with constant media attention in a positive way (that was insane and extreme) certainly bodes well for a player like Aqib Talib, who basically now has a shot at going from the outhouse to the penthouse in only 8 weeks.

I'm not disputing your contractual perspective on what he's worth at all, actually quite the contrary. What I am saying is that he is going to try and use this second chance to his advantage, and that things set up well for him to do so.

I don't believe that is going to be enough to warrant anywhere close to the kind of money that many think, but just the fact that we're suddenly having all of these conversations not just here, but in the media---proves my point dramatically.

Talib has been an overhyped machine and I explained some of the reasons why I think that happened. The extreme luck of his being on national tv in 7/9 games here only adds to that thought.

He boosted himself from a player who was under suspension and in extreme danger of being cut to suddenly surging as the "#2 CB on the free agent market."

I totally disagree. The level of media attention has nothing to do with how NFL teams will evaluate him.
All of your comments relate to fan and media perception.
Playing a handful of games here and being injured often didn't fool gMs because the CBS announcers gushed over him.


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[supafly]

I totally disagree. The level of media attention has nothing to do with how NFL teams will evaluate him.
All of your comments relate to fan and media perception.
Playing a handful of games here and being injured often didn't fool gMs because the CBS announcers gushed over him.


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It seems as though our difference of opinion lies in this topic.

I agree with you about his potential worth, but I think that coming to NE has opened up more possibilities for him and increased his value, certainly much more than it was when he was traded.

The insane amount of media attention could not have hurt his cause in any way, and one would assume that he and his agent will try to use that to their advantage when they shop him around.

How effective that will be is another story of course, and that remains to be seen. My main point is that I think coming to NE has provided him with a much better opportunity than he had, and the high profile atmosphere and continued praise couldn't have hurt his stock in any way, that's for sure.

There is a major difference between coming to a high profile place like NE and being credited by just about everyone for turning around the defense, as opposed to going to somewhere like Jacksonville/Cleveland/etc.

You don't find it strangely coincidental that some sites and analysts now have him as their second highest FA cornerback in the entire league now?? He surely wasn't the 2nd rated FA CB before the trade, and we both know that it wasn't just his play that warranted that designation. I find it hard to believe that there are some comparable CBs out there who are suddenly ranked lower than he is.

At any rate, I don't believe he ends up staying here, but we'll have to see what happens.

 

[eom]

Wait, so now it's law rookies can't contribute? Gronkowski? Asante? Dennard? Mayo? Seymour? Chandler? Hightower? Light? that's just a quick list of some obvious guys off the top of my head that all did a good job and contributed their first year.


The Patriots will have closer to 18 million after the entire draft IIRC.

Off the top of my head, I would then do:
-3 years, 6 million - Randy Starks (DT) [2 mill cap hit]
-3 years, 6 million - Julian Edelman (WR) [2 mill cap hit]
-2 years, 4 million - Brian Hartline (WR) [2 mill cap hit]
-3 years, 15 million - Aqib Talib (CB) [5 mill cap hit]
-4 years, 20 million - William Moore (S) [4 mill cap hit]
-1 year, .75 million - Hooman [.75 mill cap hit]
-1 year, .75 million - Arrington [.75]

eric wright and carlos rogers signed for 7-8m/yr , a year ago, so talib and arrington can be had for a total of 5.75m?
I'll bet you're also a little low on moore, but that one might be nitpicking.

I think your plan is great if we can lowball every fa in the league, and even then we would be absolutely tapped.

also, there is absolutely no way I'm banking on ir dowling.

edit: oh, wait....I forgot brian hartline at 2y/4m

well, the numbers are starting to roll in.....

Dolphins re-signed WR Brian Hartline to a five-year, $30.775 million contract with $12.5 million guaranteed.
The $6.15 million annual average is actually a tick less than expected,

Falcons agreed to terms on a five-year, $30 million contract with SS William Moore.
The deal contains $14 million guaranteed

Dolphins assigned the franchise tag to DT Randy Starks.
It means Jake Long, Brian Hartline and CB Sean Smith will all reach free agency if they so desire. A nine-year veteran coming off a 4.5-sack campaign, Starks will be guaranteed $8.45 million once he signs on the dotted line

 

[Marqui]

Supposedly Tommy Kelly got released. He'd fit great here if he comes cheap.

 

[Brady6]

Supposedly Tommy Kelly got released. He'd fit great here if he comes cheap.

Had a great 2010 and 2011 but was not good at all last year but I'd kick the tires see what's left.

 

[eom]

Wait, so now it's law rookies can't contribute? Gronkowski? Asante? Dennard? Mayo? Seymour? Chandler? Hightower? Light? that's just a quick list of some obvious guys off the top of my head that all did a good job and contributed their first year.


The Patriots will have closer to 18 million after the entire draft IIRC.

Off the top of my head, I would then do:
-3 years, 6 million - Randy Starks (DT) [2 mill cap hit]
-3 years, 6 million - Julian Edelman (WR) [2 mill cap hit]
-2 years, 4 million - Brian Hartline (WR) [2 mill cap hit]
-3 years, 15 million - Aqib Talib (CB) [5 mill cap hit]
-4 years, 20 million - William Moore (S) [4 mill cap hit]
-1 year, .75 million - Hooman [.75 mill cap hit]
-1 year, .75 million - Arrington [.75]

It's yet to be seen what Aqib/Moore is looking for but that's probably where I'd go in your scenario. I personally would rather draft a safety and sign a free agent DT since the market is pretty well stocked with DTs and safety is a lesser issue with Gregory locked in and quality free agents will cost more than their worth.

But anyways, yes that would be a great offseason. .

Patriots re-signed CB Kyle Arrington to a four-year, $16 million contract.