Defensive Front Seven In Fine Shape

[captain stone]

EDIT:
Who was the last 1st round pick in the BB era to NOT contribute his rookie season? I think the closest argument is Solder because he wasn't starting and was a 6th OL for portions of the season before Vollmer went down. Maroney I guess, but even he was a good contributor his rookie year behind Dillon.

Stomper Meriweather.

Sorry, I don't mean to sound snarky (I just really, really, really hated that pick), because I generally
agree with the gist of your post.

 

[Kontradiction]

Only if they create a play, and when they get flagged they change the game negatively.
Fans put a lot more value on the impact of one big hit than it gets. These are professionals, not 12 year olds who get afraid if they get hit hard.
I hate how the league has decided hitting too hard is a penalty, but ignoring that doesn't make your team better.

Any where did I say 'ultra soft'? Not wanting a slow safety who is only about laying the wood, which comes with penalties that get called more and more often but wanted to have a guy who can cover out there covering is not wanting softness.

Not wanting a safety that generates those hits due to fear or penalty manifests into an opinion advocating softness, which is what this current secondary is. And your "12 year old" comment is simply wrong. Take a look at some of the losses that we've had over the years and you'll realize that a lot of them came against very physical defenses that survived those penalties because the hit sent a message. The majority of those hits came against Welker and, in most cases, he was much less of a factor going forward. Age doesn't make a difference. No human being, no matter how old, wants to get hit like that. And it just so happens that the two teams with the most physical secondaries are playing for the big prize while the Patriots are watching it on TV.

 

[Ring 6]

Not wanting a safety that generates those hits due to fear or penalty manifests into an opinion advocating softness, which is what this current secondary is.

Of course you know thats not what I am saying.
Trying to create a defense that relies on intimidating recievers in a league where hitting receivers draws penalties, fines and suspensions is an archaic approach. It is not a 'soft' approach to say that I want to stop the pass by defending it better instead of letting them catch it so we can hit them and most likely get a penalty.

And your "12 year old" comment is simply wrong. Take a look at some of the losses that we've had over the years and you'll realize that a lot of them came against very physical defenses that survived those penalties because the hit sent a message.

This could be the most incorect statement ever uttered on this board. Please show me all of these examples where our receivers were hit, then becamse afraid of getting hit again so they ****ied out.

The majority of those hits came against Welker and, in most cases, he was much less of a factor going forward. Age doesn't make a difference. No human being, no matter how old, wants to get hit like that.

You are just so, so wrong. On top of that even if you would accept that belief, there are maybe 2 hits like that in a game, even from the teams that emphasize it.

And it just so happens that the two teams with the most physical secondaries are playing for the big prize while the Patriots are watching it on TV.

That is incorrect.

 

[supafly]

I think any comments we make as fans about leadership are total bs because we have absolutely no clue about what is really going on.
I think talking about hard hitting intimidation at a time when the league is penalizing, fining and suspending players on what seems to be a standard that a hard hit equals an illegal hit is chasing windmills.

The poster who I was responding to made the comment that we lack proper leadership on defense. He claimed that we needed a "vocal leader" like Mike Vrabel was. Someone who could "spark the team with his words and make big plays."

I would agree with you that we don't necessarily know everything that's going on out there on the field at all times, but I'd have a hard time believing that guys like Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo are not leaders for this current Patriot defense.

Leadership can certainly come from example too, and both of those players are veteran presences who have certainly shown the ability to make plays when it counts and provide a big spark. I also included Spikes in that list because he really stepped up this year too on some level to becoming more of a vocal player who causes intimidation and brings some of the biggest hits in the entire league. We saw the key fumble at the end of the ARZ game when they were simply trying to run the clock out on a couple of plays. You don't see that kind of play too often.

Many have argued for a more physical presence for this defense. I showed that they have made some very good progress this year in that regard moving from 15th to 9th in scoring. Some of that physical presence came from the acquisition of Talib--who offered a physical presence in the pass defense. Some of it came from the usual suspects of guys like Wilfork/Mayo/Spikes.

I'm not advocating anything about penalties or personal fouls etc on any level. I'm showing examples of guys who can play more physically, show leadership (like Mike Vrabel--per his example) through more ways than one, and cause intimidation from the opposition by making big, clean, football hits. We see many of those kinds of clean football hits throughout the season all over the NFL and tomorrow's game will showcase 2 teams who have done just that.

 

[mgteich]

I agree with you that Wilfork, Mayo, and Spikes are leaders. I suspect that if we sign Talib to a long-term deal, he can become the leader of the secondary.

Could we use another pass-rusher or two? Sure. However, we do NOT lack leadership.

The poster who I was responding to made the comment that we lack proper leadership on defense. He claimed that we needed a "vocal leader" like Mike Vrabel was. Someone who could "spark the team with his words and make big plays."

I would agree with you that we don't necessarily know everything that's going on out there on the field at all times, but I'd have a hard time believing that guys like Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo are not leaders for this current Patriot defense.

Leadership can certainly come from example too, and both of those players are veteran presences who have certainly shown the ability to make plays when it counts and provide a big spark. I also included Spikes in that list because he really stepped up this year too on some level to becoming more of a vocal player who causes intimidation and brings some of the biggest hits in the entire league. We saw the key fumble at the end of the ARZ game when they were simply trying to run the clock out on a couple of plays. You don't see that kind of play too often.

Many have argued for a more physical presence for this defense. I showed that they have made some very good progress this year in that regard moving from 15th to 9th in scoring. Some of that physical presence came from the acquisition of Talib--who offered a physical presence in the pass defense. Some of it came from the usual suspects of guys like Wilfork/Mayo/Spikes.

I'm not advocating anything about penalties or personal fouls etc on any level. I'm showing examples of guys who can play more physically, show leadership (like Mike Vrabel--per his example) through more ways than one, and cause intimidation from the opposition by making big, clean, football hits. We see many of those kinds of clean football hits throughout the season all over the NFL and tomorrow's game will showcase 2 teams who have done just that.

 

[cstjohn17]

do you even bother reading these replies, or am I talking to some kind of arguebot script?

That is pretty good, funniest thing I have read in a while.

I wonder how much Osi will be looking for:
Osi Umenyiora - New York Giants - 2013 Player Profile - Rotoworld.com

He may not be a 3 down player anymore but could be a sub package specialist and it would be a nice rotation of Ninko, Jones, Umenyiora.

 

[eom]

Wait, so now it's law rookies can't contribute? Gronkowski? Asante? Dennard? Mayo? Seymour? Chandler? Hightower? Light? that's just a quick list of some obvious guys off the top of my head that all did a good job and contributed their first year.


The Patriots will have closer to 18 million after the entire draft IIRC.

Off the top of my head, I would then do:
-3 years, 6 million - Randy Starks (DT) [2 mill cap hit]
-3 years, 6 million - Julian Edelman (WR) [2 mill cap hit]
-2 years, 4 million - Brian Hartline (WR) [2 mill cap hit]
-3 years, 15 million - Aqib Talib (CB) [5 mill cap hit]
-4 years, 20 million - William Moore (S) [4 mill cap hit]
-1 year, .75 million - Hooman [.75 mill cap hit]
-1 year, .75 million - Arrington [.75]

It's yet to be seen what Aqib/Moore is looking for but that's probably where I'd go in your scenario. I personally would rather draft a safety and sign a free agent DT since the market is pretty well stocked with DTs and safety is a lesser issue with Gregory locked in and quality free agents will cost more than their worth.

But anyways, yes that would be a great offseason. Offense is set except arguably at RT which isn't a massive issue. Cannon can play there at a passable level which is all we need out of RT. I probably would like to bring in a backup T with the remainder but for that I'd actually have to go look and see who is available. We also would have a ton of quality depth on the DL which was a pretty huge issue for us. I would also like to bring in another potential starter calibre CB but with Dowling coming back hopefully that wouldn't be an issue.

EDIT:
Who was the last 1st round pick in the BB era to NOT contribute his rookie season? I think the closest argument is Solder because he wasn't starting and was a 6th OL for portions of the season before Vollmer went down. Maroney I guess, but even he was a good contributor his rookie year behind Dillon.

why do you ask, and what's the relevance?

eric wright and carlos rogers signed for 7-8m/yr , a year ago, so talib and arrington can be had for a total of 5.75m?
I'll bet you're also a little low on moore, but that one might be nitpicking.

I think your plan is great if we can lowball every fa in the league, and even then we would be absolutely tapped.

also, there is absolutely no way I'm banking on ir dowling.

edit: oh, wait....I forgot brian hartline at 2y/4m

 

[eom]

That is pretty good, funniest thing I have read in a while.

I wonder how much Osi will be looking for:
Osi Umenyiora - New York Giants - 2013 Player Profile - Rotoworld.com

He may not be a 3 down player anymore but could be a sub package specialist and it would be a nice rotation of Ninko, Jones, Umenyiora.

he's probably lookin' for cash.

 

[supafly]

why do you ask, and what's the relevance?

eric wright and carlos rogers signed for 7-8m/yr , a year ago, so talib and arrington can be had for a total of 5.75m?
I'll bet you're also a little low on moore, but that one might be nitpicking.

I think your plan is great if we can lowball every fa in the league, and even then we would be absolutely tapped.

also, there is absolutely no way I'm banking on ir dowling.

edit: oh, wait....I forgot brian hartline at 2y/4m

I agree with you that he's certainly lowballing just about every player there. In his defense I am assuming that he is showing us actual cap hits, instead of aav. While he has a point that actual cap hits aren't going to be as high as the 7/8 million aav for some of these players, the hits themselves are not going to be nearly that low for most, let alone everyone. I think it's a lot of wishful thinking, but is does project an idea of creativity regarding our actual cap hits.

Either way, I still think they are rather low projections too.

 

[Ring 6]

why do you ask, and what's the relevance?

Because you implied it would be silly to rely on any rookies.

eric wright and carlos rogers signed for 7-8m/yr , a year ago, so talib and arrington can be had for a total of 5.75m?

Rogers 2012 cap hit was 4.766 mil. Talib won't get more than Rogers did.

I'll bet you're also a little low on moore, but that one might be nitpicking.

He may be off on many, but he is also using AAV for cap hit

I think your plan is great if we can lowball every fa in the league, and even then we would be absolutely tapped.

see above

also, there is absolutely no way I'm banking on ir dowling.

I don't think anyone is but listing him on the depth chart is fair

edit: oh, wait....I forgot brian hartline at 2y/4m

Yeah, that one is off quite a bit

 

[Ring 6]

That is pretty good, funniest thing I have read in a while.

I wonder how much Osi will be looking for:
Osi Umenyiora - New York Giants - 2013 Player Profile - Rotoworld.com

He may not be a 3 down player anymore but could be a sub package specialist and it would be a nice rotation of Ninko, Jones, Umenyiora.

Probably will want to much money for the role he would have.
I'd split LDE between Osi and Deadrick (down and distance) and use Nink as backup RDE, backup sub LDE, and in the backup LB mix.

 

[Urgent]

A couple points on front seven:

I am still very concerned that there is only one "pass-rusher" on the front seven.

All three LB's are essentially inside LB's. Mayo and Spikes certainly are. Hightower had 4 sacks his final year at Alabama, and struggled in coverage. All are good tacklers, but weak at rushing and weak in coverage.

I'm not at all sure Armstead solves anything. He was not an elite pass rusher at USC and not against UDFA's in the CFL. Maybe a better pass rusher than Love.

On the free agency summary, specifically Talib:
The franchise tag is over $10mm for corners. We will not sign Talib to a contract averaging half that. Starting corners get a lot more in free agency than $15mm.

 

[supafly]

On the free agency summary, specifically Talib:
The franchise tag is over $10mm for corners. We will not sign Talib to a contract averaging half that. Starting corners get a lot more in free agency than $15mm.

I agree with some of your concerns.

As far as Talib's situation goes, AndyJohnson was stating what Carlos Rogers' cap hit was (less than 5 million), not what his aav was (off the top of my head I want to say it was somewhere about 7.5 million or approx 4 yrs/30 million).

Carlos Rogers' contract may actually be an excellent comparison at 4/30 to what Talib is in the market for, IF it's even that...

I still have a hard time believing that someone will actually offer Talib a 4 yr deal, as he hasn't proven anything at all besides being able to be a locker room cancer, a malcontent, a PED user who already has one suspension, someone who was on the hook at one point for possibly shooting someone, and being injured....

Talib did not go from practically being outright cut by Greg Schiano to a hefty 4 year deal in his brief and often injured stay with the Patriots for 6 weeks.

I will give you the fact that he no doubt improved his stock by coming to a high profile and well respected team like the NEP and showing something of his talents, but I still have a hard time believing that a team will go right back to a longer term 4 year deal.

If they do, Carlos Rogers' 4 yrs/ 30 million (approx. I think it may have been 29) is a very good place to start, but as said by AndyJohnson, his cap hit was only about 4.7 million dollars in this past season.

 

[Ring 6]

I agree with some of your concerns.

As far as Talib's situation goes, AndyJohnson was stating what Carlos Rogers' cap hit was (less than 5 million), not what his aav was (off the top of my head I want to say it was somewhere about 7.5 million or approx 4 yrs/30 million).

Carlos Rogers' contract may actually be an excellent comparison at 4/30 to what Talib is in the market for, IF it's even that...

I still have a hard time believing that someone will actually offer Talib a 4 yr deal, as he hasn't proven anything at all besides being able to be a locker room cancer, a malcontent, a PED user who already has one suspension, someone who was on the hook at one point for possibly shooting someone, and being injured....

Talib did not go from practically being outright cut by Greg Schiano to a hefty 4 year deal in his brief and often injured stay with the Patriots for 6 weeks.

I will give you the fact that he no doubt improved his stock by coming to a high profile and well respected team like the NEP and showing something of his talents, but I still have a hard time believing that a team will go right back to a longer term 4 year deal.

If they do, Carlos Rogers' 4 yrs/ 30 million (approx. I think it may have been 29) is a very good place to start, but as said by AndyJohnson, his cap hit was only about 4.7 million dollars in this past season.

Talib has too much risk to get Rogers contract (and Rogers is better too). The only way Talib approaches those kind of numbers is if year 3,4 and 5 are huge salaries to pump up the aav, and the guaranteed money is WAY less.

 

[supafly]

Talib has too much risk to get Rogers contract (and Rogers is better too). The only way Talib approaches those kind of numbers is if year 3,4 and 5 are huge salaries to pump up the aav, and the guaranteed money is WAY less.

Carlos Rogers' contract may actually be an excellent comparison at 4/30 to what Talib is in the market for, IF it's even that...

I certainly tend to agree with you, but in today's overinflated CB market I wouldn't be totally shocked if someone decides to offer something in that range either.

I think my main point was that I would use Rogers' contract as the high point in what Talib may be able to get, and certainly nothing above it.

I still have a hard time believing that any team could go above a 3 yr deal, unless it were set up for them to escape pretty quickly into it, which may end up being the case.

 

[celticboy04]

I disagree.

This is a front seven designed to stop the run.

Wilfork is primarily a two-gap NT.
Love and Pryor are lesser versions of run-stuffing two-gap DT's.

Ninkovich is a versatile edge-setting DE/OLB, but not a premier pass-rusher.

The three primary LB's are all Mike-types.
Mayo is a former ILB, tackling machine.
Spikes is a pure MLB with very limited coverage abilities and lack of speed, but big hitter.
Hightower is a hybrid OLB/ILB.

Jones looks like he could be a good pass rusher. But that's one guy in the starting line-up.

The back-ups are similar.
Fletcher is another MLB type.
Tarpinian, White, Koutovides are pure ST linebackers.
Jermaine Cunningham is a big edge-setting LDE or inside rusher, but not an edge rusher. Scott and Bequette are average back-ups.

This is a front seven designed to block the A & B gaps and set the edge. It's designed to prevent the inside run and force the runner outside. There is only one guy who is a pass-rush first player.

This is a passing league.

Forget the statistics for sacks, which Belichick says are over-rated. They are not great. But look at the amount of pressure the Patriots generate on passers. Look at the records of passers, especially below-average passers, against the Patriots over the past two seasons.

In years past, there were at least designated pass rushers, like Jarvis Green, Rosevelt Colvin, Tully Banta-Cain. There were also designated coverage players, like Roman Phifer and Don Davis.

I don't think the Patriots can significantly improve their defensive pressure with the same cast. They need to generate more pressure. They need to improve coverage over the middle.

I struggle with a starting LB trio of Hightower, Spikes, and Mayo against the pass. I struggle with a starting DL of Ninkovich, Pryor/Love/Deaderick, Wilfork, and Jones against the pass. Individually that's a lot of talent. As a unit, I think it is above average against the run, but consistently beaten against the pass. And that's a weakness a lot of teams can very consisently exploit.

I think this team needs a significant upgrade at third down front seven.

There needs to be a bookend passrusher at LDE.
There needs to be an effective inside rusher - maybe Cunningham or Armstead can develop into this. Or hopefully both.
There needs to be an effective coverage LB in the role of Phifer.

With two significant upgrades, this could be a more effective pass defense.

Greetings,
Somebody buy this man a beer. This is the best assessment of this front 7 I have ever read.
Celticboy04

 

[Sciz]

Off the top of my head, I would then do:
-3 years, 6 million - Randy Starks (DT) [2 mill cap hit]
-3 years, 6 million - Julian Edelman (WR) [2 mill cap hit]
-2 years, 4 million - Brian Hartline (WR) [2 mill cap hit]
-3 years, 15 million - Aqib Talib (CB) [5 mill cap hit]
-4 years, 20 million - William Moore (S) [4 mill cap hit]
-1 year, .75 million - Hooman [.75 mill cap hit]
-1 year, .75 million - Arrington [.75]

So you want every free agent you target to laugh at your offer?

 

[Ring 6]

I certainly tend to agree with you, but in today's overinflated CB market I wouldn't be totally shocked if someone decides to offer something in that range either.

I think my main point was that I would use Rogers' contract as the high point in what Talib may be able to get, and certainly nothing above it.

I still have a hard time believing that any team could go above a 3 yr deal, unless it were set up for them to escape pretty quickly into it, which may end up being the case.

Rogers contract was signed last year. The market can't have overinflated itself so much in one year that a player who isn't as good, had a PED suspension, has numerous off the field issues, and was given away by his last team is now getitng the same deal as the better guy who's nose is clean.

 

[Fencer]

I'm with Urgent. Talent upgrades in the Front "Seven" are needed more for sub packages than in base.

It so happens we've had decent talent luck in recent years with base or 3-down Front 7 players, e.g. Jones, Ninkovich, the one-year Carter/Anderson wonders, etc., and of course the current starting LBs. It hasn't been so good for sub (Pryor's been injured, Fletcher missed last year, the S-as-LB guys kept getting injured, Haynesworth's best shot to star was there, etc., all the way back to Wright's concussions)

 

[supafly]

Rogers contract was signed last year. The market can't have overinflated itself so much in one year that a player who isn't as good, had a PED suspension, has numerous off the field issues, and was given away by his last team is now getitng the same deal as the better guy who's nose is clean.

I would still like to keep him, but I wouldn't overpay. My concern is that someone else will. While that may not be to the tune of a deal like Rogers' 4/29, it may still be too high for Belichick's liking.

I'd be interested in knowing where they stand on this one, but my guess is something in the short end range of 1-2 yrs and around 5-6 million aav.

My worry is that another team may offer the same kind of money with an additional year. Like I said, I don't think he's going to draw nearly as much money as most are assuming either, but at the same time I can't say I'd be shocked if someone threw on a dummy year or two to make it look much better.