Defensive Changes

[Ring 6]

We have made some significant changes on defense. Here's my take at this point.

DL
No personell changes, but a fully healthy Seymour, with Wilfork and Warren in their prime and conceivably better this year (there 5th and 6th) says we should be better in 08 than 07. Assuming Wright stays healthy, depth should be better.

OLB
Thomas full time outside is an upgrade over Colvin both in on field play, and in the likelihood of injury. I see a huge year from AD. Vrabel is Vrabel. Woods and Crabel as backups are an upgrade with minimal impact. Hobson would give us the best depth we have had (without counting guys playing ILB and shifting to OLB as 'depth") in years. Quesiton is whether Hobson is depth inside or outside.

ILB
Thomas was out of position half the year, then Seau was a gamer as a starter but a shadow of himself in his prime, and never a guy whose best abilities fit our system well. Bruschi has taken a lot of crap on this board, but I am fine with him playing full time.
Adding Mayo and Hobson if he plays inside is an upgrade IMO, ESPECIALLY in pass defense and overall speed. I can't see that we lose a lot in taking on Gs and shedding blocks because it was an issue last year too. Ideally we are better in that area, worst case no worse.

CB
A lot of posters like to say Samuel wasnt really that good except for Ints. (using the famous "he got beat a lot, as if every corner in the NFL doesn't allow catches every game) NO DOUBT we have downgraded that spot. HOWEVEr, looking at the corner spot as a whole, I think we have improved a lot. Gay never belonged playing slot receivers. His agility was awful, and he made up for his agility with good football instincts and discipline. He was a fine 3rd corner, playing as the guy off the bench in the base, but just lacked the quickness and agility to play the slot. Go back and watch the SB, and play after play he was running yards behind any receiver who changed direction. We have at least 3 guys new to the roster who are better slot corners than Gay. We also have quality players beyond the #3 corner, which is something we havent had for a while.

S
Meriwhether in year 2 is better than Meriwhether in year 1, and also better than any othe rS on the roster. (At this stage of their careers) Tank Williams can play, so whatever role he gets he will be a plus for this team. It seems we should be able to limit Rodney to the base D and if he is in for sub packages he will only be a nickel/dime LINEBACKER.

I will GLADLY trade a downgrade at Samuels spot for improvement in 2 minute defense at the S, Nickel, and LB position, and I think we are a lot better at those spots.

I've read a bunch of posts about 3rd down D, and everyone seems to ignore that we were #1 in the NFL in 3rd down D. Part of the reason was that we were real good on 1st and 2nd down too. The only issue I saw with our D the last 2 years (which stood out in the last 2 playoff losses) was that when the other team 'had to throw' when we led or the other team was in 2 minute offense, we were worse in that phase of defense than we have been in any phase of defense since the 2002 run D while Bruschi was injured.

My overall assessment is that quality players, strong TEAM defense, and great coaching masked some issues, most obviously, the lack of man coverage skills at S, nickel corner, and LB, that were more flawed than was noticable.
The overall quality of this team made those weaknesses unimportant in 90% of the games we played over the last 2 years. That is, we could have been HORRIFIC in those areas (and maybe we were) and 9 games out of 10, it wouldn't matter. It has come home ot roost in the final game of the last 2 seasons, and in my opinion BB has targetted these issues this off-season.
Will these changes look dramatic on the field? No, because we are so dominant they don't matter in most games. But, at 3-4 junctures this year, we will be faced with a Colt 2006 2nd half, or a Giant SB 4th quarter. I am very confident that these areas will now be a strength when they are needed.

 

[363839]

Fun read, AJ.
I agree with most of your points.
I thought Junior made more big plays than Tedy
through out the year.
I really can't remember Tedy making any in 07.
But I understand Tedy makes the D run.
As far as the problem with the D being when
other teams had to pass, they did so at will. practically.
I know our points allowed looks good but teams always
seemed to move the ball a little too easily on our D for
my comfort.
A better pass rush would help this considerably
as would having better players in the secondary.

 

[JoePats]

Good post AndyJohnson...

Basically the corner is probably downgraded a little but conceivably every other spot on the defense is improved. The D was good overall last year and I expect it will be better this year. This is important as it's unrealistic to expect the O to put up the same enormous numbers despite Maroney in his 3rd year and every significant contributor back.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Wow! Let me be the first to say, tremendous work, analysis, assessment etc... etc...

Now with all that said, I disagree with everything you said.

Nah just kidding. I'd say you're right on target, and probably not far off at all from the thought process of the front office in the offseason.

I'm zen with a decision not to allocate $10 mil a year to Samuel - if we play better team defense his loss as an impact, game changing player isn't going to hurt as much, and we know from experience that Belichick - helped now by Capers - excells at getting a lot out of the guys he has on the team. People likely made similar remarks about our Secondary when Ty Law left the team - yet lo and behold, a 4 round draft pick steps in and excells.

Interesting assessment on Colvin. I have a tough time thinking of getting rid of him as an upgrade, but seeing how his moving on leaves AD outside, I see that as a net benefit - and for too many seasons you couldn't count on Colvin to always be available. That's like half a player in some ways. Better to go with youth, give them the playing and practice time and hope they develop.

ILB is just a question of age and health for me - hopefully Mayo's more than up to his turn in the rotation. And hopefully everyone else stays healthy. That's a big if though, but if they do I'm very happy with LB.

S - I agree its about quality time from Rodney - not quantity.

 

[363839]

Just did a little searching and my thought on Jr v Tedy
seem to be vindicated here...
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=3571

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=1548

The first link is Tedys' stats.
Junior is all over him in tackles and solo tackles,
has 3.5 sacks to Tedys 2.
He even had 3 interceptions. Tedy had none.
BTW. Who was that guy that stopped LT behind
the los inside the 5 in the AFCCG? Junior?

I want Junior back more than Tedy, frankly.
I also think he would be better tutelage for Mayo.
Imagine Mayo wanting to be a maniacal animal like Seau.
The same way Eugene Wilson USED to emulate Rodney.

 

[blackglass3]

The thing with Tedy Bruschi is he has achieved near folk tale status, and for good reason. He was at his peak in 03 and 04, then the stroke and comeback the same year pretty much solidified him as a true bada$s and someone we will always want on the team (for the most part, at least).

If there is one person on this team I would like my sons to emulate, it would be Tedy Bruschi...his on field dedication and bravery, his off field charity work and "good honest guy" persona (I am not positive it is true, of course...Marvin Harrison had us fooled for years allegedly), plus he's half Italian and half Filipino, just like them.

I would like Tedy to get one more ring this year and then get into coaching or maybe broadcasting.

 

[AllabouttheVinces]

AJ, I always appreciate your insight. I agree with most of your post, but there are a couple of points here that are debatable. Until Crable proves he's ready for prime time, I'm not ready to agree that OLB depth is "the best depth we have had in years". Hobson has replaced Colvin, and we added a 3rd rd rookie. I'll take Colvin (healthy) any day. Agreed, AD should be better on the outside, but that means we have to rely on Hobson or Mayo at ILB. I like Mayo a lot.

Also, Merriweather may yet prove that he's a stud, but he didn't do it last year. Sanders was better and earned the PT.

Good insight at the CB spots. I agree. High risk, high potential. Let's hope the O keeps the D off the field in '08 as much as they did in '07 with the long drives.

 

[ausbacker]

I am excited for the defense this year. With the injection of new blood into the linebackers and secondary, I'm hoping that the affect of new offensive weapons in the past offseason carries to the defense this season.

We are faster and younger, an although seeming like a somewhat simply positive outlook, I'm really excited and quite confident that our D will be better than last year.

 

[SammyBlueCat]

Thomas full time outside is an upgrade over Colvin both in on field play, and in the likelihood of injury. I see a huge year from AD.

I have seen several posts in various threads that imply this. Where does this idea come from? I am not saying Thomas S_cks or something like that but I also was not impressed with him as a pass rusher - unless you just want someone that gets close but does not actually disrupt the QB.

 

[mgteich]

I agree with everything, except the analysis of the corner situation.

Hobbs is the same as last year.

I do not agree that it is a slam dunk that Bryant/Wheatley/Wilhite is better than Samuel/Gay/Meriweather (or whoever else who played dime at various points last year).

I think that we still have an opportunity to get better by signing Law and Seau.

 

[Rob0729]

I think the Pats much upgraded the defense like they did last year on offense. Granted the rookies are crap shoot because even stud players can take a year or two to develop.

I think Victor Hobson could be a head turning surprise free agent pick up. Hobson was miscast in New York. He was clearly better suited for the ILB position in the 3-4. I think he has the tools and smarts to excel inside in the Pats 3-4. I could see Hobson turning into a Roman Phifer type of pick up for us and him and Mayo manning the inside spots for years to come. I can see people asking next year why the Jets let him go.

I think we are going to change the way our CBs play this year. Based on the personnel we have, we would be better suited to move to more man-to-man and press coverage rather than the Cover 2 and 3 zone coverage we have employed the last few years. Samuel was not a man CB and I think was part of the reason for the switch since he really didn't break out until the Pats switch more exclusively to a zone. With the addition of Capers and his agressive style, I expect to see our CBs get far more physical. It should do wonders with the play of Hobbs since he isn't a great zone CB, but pretty good and physical as a man CB.

 

[spacecrime]

I'm not ready to agree that OLB depth is "the best depth we have had in years".

Just out of curiousity, what year do you figure our OLB corps had better depth than this year. I think 2001 was the last year it a
was stronger and deeper, though I suppose you could make a case for 2004.

 

[Rob0729]

Just out of curiousity, what year do you figure our OLB corps had better depth than this year. I think 2001 was the last year it a
was stronger and deeper, though I suppose you could make a case for 2004.

I would say 2004. This year is going to be tough to beat the Vrabel/McGinest/Colvin rotation with TBC and Matt Chatham as back ups. I think the starters of AD and Vrabel are stronger, but the depth isn't. We had three starting quality OLBs that year.

 

[PonyExpress]

That was a great breakdown.

There's alot to be excited about. A few possible clouds on the horizon: the amazing durability of some of our stalwarts, Wilfork Warren and Vrabel, over the past few seasons. I guess Wilfork missed a game or 2 toward the end of '06, maybe the Houston game, and Jax; and Vrabel had the arm break in '03. But other than that they've been injury free (relatively speaking). This being football, odds are one of those players will get banged up, finally. Obviously Wilfork would be a killer, and Vrabel very tough to deal with from a run stopping perspective. I don't see anyone on the roster who can set the strong side edge effectively if Vrabel caught the flu. If we were to move AD over there, I think he could probably handle it after a few games, but that would seem to waste his playmaking ability.

For those reasons, the backup NT and backup OLB situation bears watching this preseason.

Personally, I interpreted BB's remarks on P. Woods very positively, more so than many others. I think Woods is in the mix. The major problem with his game is lower body power, maintaining leverage both rushing the passer and setting the edge. I have to believe this was his off season mission, to strengthen his core and legs. Hopefully he'll bring Crable along next off season.

This kid Fifita froim Miami seems like may be in the mix for backup NT.

BTW... I read a column by Stewart Mandel in SI on Rich Rodriguez taking over the Michigan program, and discovering how lackadaisaclly things had been run under Carr. The coaching was soft, the pace of practice slow and relaxed, the demands on the players less than at most other "elite" programs. When Rodriguez came in, his coaching style was a culture shock to the players, although it is no different than at most other quality programs. Rodriguez apparently got rid of all the old weight room gear and installed new equipment. I bring this up because for the life of me I can't understand how a kid using free weights could have lower legs as skinny as Crable. How is that possible? If he were doing legit squats etc, the lower legs would thicken by necessity to provide balance. Did he not work out? It's totally mystifying to me.

 

[DarrylS]

Nicely done AJ, the whole LB situation and the Pats not making changes there have perplexed me for a while, until this year. Thought last year this was our main problem area, hard to think of problems in an 18-0 run.... but Colvin's injury, and the age of Seau and Bruschi presented issues.

Fast forward to this year, Addition of Victor Hobson(believe this guy is a difference maker) and Mayo and Crable.. the former will have an impact, the latter will give us depty. It seems that we have upgraded significantly in these areas of need, think we will see more plays disrupted and more forced turnovers from this group this year.

One final note, #93 has had an offseason to heal and this will also be beneficial.

 

[Water Boy]

Who was that guy that stopped LT behind
the los inside the 5 in the AFCCG? Junior?

IMO Seau was a huge asset to the defense last year and not a liability especially against the run.

 

[Patjew]

BTW. Who was that guy that stopped LT behind
the los inside the 5 in the AFCCG? Junior?

That wasn't LT, was it?

That doesn't take away from your points, I just think it was someone else running the ball while LDT Vader stood on the sidelines like the DB (and I don't mean defensive back) that he is.

 

[fair catch fryar]

Fun read, AJ.
I agree with most of your points.
I thought Junior made more big plays than Tedy
through out the year.
I really can't remember Tedy making any in 07.
But I understand Tedy makes the D run.
As far as the problem with the D being when
other teams had to pass, they did so at will. practically.
I know our points allowed looks good but teams always
seemed to move the ball a little too easily on our D for
my comfort.
A better pass rush would help this considerably
as would having better players in the secondary.

Good points. There was one play of Bruschi's that I remember during the AFC game against SD where Tedy knocked down a pass to Antonio Gates that I believe could have been a 1st down in our 10 yard line or an actual TD. That failed drive by the Chargers pretty much took the wind out their sales. It reminded me of the old Bruschi!

 

[dhamz]

I'm not sure it shows up in a player by player analysis of last year's defense but to me the main issue was speed - especially up the middle. Bruschi, Seau, Sanders, Rodney, and Gay in the nickel spot were all lacking in that area. Individually that isn't a big deal as all are still productive players. Collectively however, it was a weakness that could be exploited.

Hopefully some of the younger players are ready to play this year and fix this issue. In particular, Mayo, Wheatley, and Meriweather potentially give us much more speed down the middle.

 

[JR4]

.......
With the addition of Capers and his agressive style.........

Yep ... the addition of Capers is as significant as any new defensive
player PATs picked up to PATs defense this coming season. IMO