Cold Hard Facts : Move on From Vinatieri

[mikegibbons]

Wow. Just, wow. I'm really hoping my sarcasm meter is out of whack: I can't believe that you really think there's a secret handshake agreement among NFL owners to keep kicker's salaries down? Are you serious????

Which is more likely: (a) The NFL has colluded in a giant anti-kicker conspiracy to keep salaries down OR (b) nearly every NFL team believes that the difference between a great kicker and an average one isn't nearly large enough to offset paying so much for that single position that it might shortchange them at nearly any other position on the field?

I eagerly await your response.

Conditionally, I pick (a).

I don't believe there was literally a handshake agreement between owners. I don't know how or when it was done, but kickers and punters are slotted in a certain salary demographic. And I'm pretty sure owners and coaches would like to keep it that way.



Back to the initial point, I still think it doesn't make sense that the guy who wrote the column so easily dismisses AV and kickers in general. Let's compare it to baseball. Closers make nearly the same as starters and they pitch anywhere from 25%-33% of what starters do. According to Mooch and Cold Hard Football facts, this is absolutely crazy!!!

But why do the Red Sox pay Foulke 7M/year? The Mets pay Wagner whatever he's making (10?)...the Yanks the millions and millions to Rivera?

Because the guy who has the opportunity to end the game and who has proven to hold up the pressure in the past should be compensated well.

Likewise, anytime you have a kicker who has proven he can perform in a "Save" situation, you should try and keep him even if he only is on the field in 66/2100 snaps.

 

[Mooch]

Conditionally, I pick (a).

I don't believe there was literally a handshake agreement between owners. I don't know how or when it was done, but kickers and punters are slotted in a certain salary demographic. And I'm pretty sure owners and coaches would like to keep it that way.



Back to the initial point, I still think it doesn't make sense that the guy who wrote the column so easily dismisses AV and kickers in general. Let's compare it to baseball. Closers make nearly the same as starters and they pitch anywhere from 25%-33% of what starters do. According to Mooch and Cold Hard Football facts, this is absolutely crazy!!!

But why do the Red Sox pay Foulke 7M/year? The Mets pay Wagner whatever he's making (10?)...the Yanks the millions and millions to Rivera?

Because the guy who has the opportunity to end the game and who has proven to hold up the pressure in the past should be compensated well.

Likewise, anytime you have a kicker who has proven he can perform in a "Save" situation, you should try and keep him even if he only is on the field in 66/2100 snaps.

You spent a lot of time typing something that can be answered with one sentence:

THERE'S NO SALARY CAP IN BASEBALL.

You're talking apples and widgets when it comes to player salaries per position in football versus baseball. The Yankees can afford to pay their lefty specialist out of the bullpen $5 million per year if they want to. Because it won't take away from any other positions.

However, you're STILL making my point for me, if you want to talk baseball: Guys like Rivera and Wagner can be measured against starting pitchers in many ways -- VORP (value over replacement player) for example. In the end, you're talking about pitchers versus other pitchers. And the elite relievers measure up against all but the elite starting pitchers in baseball metrics -- So that's exactly the way they are paid.

Kickers don't just kick at the end of games. Another way your analogy doesn't work at all.

 

[cubedoggy]

Finally,

So far everything I have been reading has been critical of the Pats and very sympathetic to Adam.

Finally, we get to hear the other side!

This part below pretty much somes up how I felt about it.

According to most reports, Indy will pay Vinatieri a $3.5 million signing bonus and $2.5 million per year. Considering the salary and endorsement deals Vinatieri had been getting in New England, the difference in pay will be negligible at best.

But being an extremely well-paid kicker on a rare NFL dynasty wasn’t good enough for Vinatieri. He wanted to be the highest-paid kicker in football. More power to him. We’re devout capitalists, too.

But it doesn’t change the fact that he told New England and its fans to shove it when he opted to sign for marginally more money with the team’s most hated rival.

While one can look at it this way, as I've posted in another thread, I think AV stands a greater chance of having a Morten Anderson-type career by going to Indy than if he'd stayed here.

Having to kick off and kick PATs and FGs in Gillette 8 or 10 games a year is a far cry from the RCA Dome where they may not even require him to kick off at all.

Whatever he might have made in endorsements post-football say, at 36, is easily eclipsed by what he could make as a point-kicking machine until he's 40, IMO.

 

[Miguel]

Putting aside the accuracy of the numbers for a second, Miguel:

Let's just that I find it funny that a site that has facts in its name is practically admitting to making up the number??

Would you agree that having ONE-QUARTER of your salary cap space tied up in 4 guys ON THE SAME SIDE OF THE BALL (two of which play the same position) is somewhat shortsighted?

Not when all 4 player are among the best in the league at their position. Not when the Colts still have 75% of the cap left.

I think most of us can agree that running the ball and stopping the run are two of the most critical parts of the game.

I also agree.

The Colts haven't addressed either point with approximately 1/4 of their available cap space for 4 players. That, to me, is cap mismanagement.

The Colts still have 75 million of cap space left and 6 months. IMO, it is far too soon to judge how a team manages the 2006 cap when there are 6 months left before the regular season starts.

 

[mikegibbons]

You spent a lot of time typing something that can be answered with one sentence:

THERE'S NO SALARY CAP IN BASEBALL.

You're talking apples and widgets when it comes to player salaries per position in football versus baseball. The Yankees can afford to pay their lefty specialist out of the bullpen $5 million per year if they want to. Because it won't take away from any other positions.

However, you're STILL making my point for me, if you want to talk baseball: Guys like Rivera and Wagner can be measured against starting pitchers in many ways -- VORP (value over replacement player) for example. In the end, you're talking about pitchers versus other pitchers. And the elite relievers measure up against all but the elite starting pitchers in baseball metrics -- So that's exactly the way they are paid.

Kickers don't just kick at the end of games. Another way your analogy doesn't work at all.

Just because there's no salary cap, doesn't mean a team has no limits to what they will spend (NYY is the clear exception). So it's all relative to what the team's "cap" is. For instance, even the Red Sox have self-capped themselves at 110-120M. If the Red Sox spend 7/yr for Foulke and 8/yr for a starter (Clement)...they are saying a closer is as valuble as a guy who pitches 200 inn, compared to a guy who throws 40-60.

Also, my analogy is being taken too literal. You obviously realize the similarities between a kicker having to come through at the end of a game and a RP doing the same.

If football had it's own sabremetric system, I'm sure Vinatieri's VORP would be worthy of a 2.5M/yr contract, don't you think?

"I eagerly await your response."

 

[Mooch]

Just because there's no salary cap, doesn't mean a team has no limits to what they will spend (NYY is the clear exception). So it's all relative to what the team's "cap" is. For instance, even the Red Sox have self-capped themselves at 110-120M. If the Red Sox spend 7/yr for Foulke and 8/yr for a starter (Clement)...they are saying a closer is as valuble as a guy who pitches 200 inn, compared to a guy who throws 40-60.

Also, my analogy is being taken too literal. You obviously realize the similarities between a kicker having to come through at the end of a game and a RP doing the same.

If football had it's own sabremetric system, I'm sure Vinatieri's VORP would be worthy of a 2.5M/yr contract, don't you think?

"I eagerly await your response."

I don't think that AV's "VORP-equivalent stats" are worth anything close to $2.5 million per year. He was 19th among kickers in points scored last year. He was 17th in terms of FG%.

And take a look at the following from Football Outsiders.com:

Of course, Adam Vinatieri isn’t considered the most valuable kicker in the league because of kickoffs or run-of-the-mill field goals. He is considered the most valuable kicker in the league because of his legendary clutch field goals in the 2001 and 2003 postseasons. We can debate whether "clutch field goal kicking ability" exists, but for now, let’s assume it does, and Vinatieri is the best clutch field goal kicker in NFL history. How often does this actually matter to the Patriots?

A good definition for a clutch field goal would be a kick to tie the game or give a team the lead near the end of the game, or in overtime. During the 2005 regular season, there were 73 such field goal attempts, either in the final ten minutes of the fourth quarter or in overtime. Did Vinatieri face an abnormal number of clutch field goal opportunities? Actually, no, he had just two such opportunities, both in the final 20 seconds of a tied game: a 43-yard field goal to beat Pittsburgh in Week 3, and a 29-yard field goal to beat Atlanta in Week 5.

Let’s say, for the sake of argument, that Vinatieri’s clutch kicking ability makes it impossible for him to miss these kicks. An average kicker will hit a 29-yarder 90 percent of the time and a 43-yarder 70 percent of the time. But a missed kick doesn’t lead to a loss in these cases; it leads to overtime, where the Patriots still have a 50-50 shot at a win. So with an average kicker, the Patriots beat Atlanta 95 percent of the time, and beat Pittsburgh 85 percent of the time. They still win both games 81 percent of the time. Is one-fifth of a win worth paying Vinatieri $3 million instead of paying a league-average kicker $1 million and spending the rest of the money on a veteran wide receiver or a veteran backup for defensive tackle Vince Wilfork?

Says it all to me.

 

[Fanfrom1960]

Love Adam yet I knew he would leave one day just like Tom will leave one day. It's the cold hard side of the NFL. Sure Adam did great things for us and I would like it if he could of finished his career in N.E. But it has happened to greater players than Adam. Example:

Joe Montana:

He won 4 SBs
He was SB MVP 3 times
His SB passer rating is a record 127.8
Most SB passes completed 83
Most consecutive SB passes completed in a row 13
2nd highest SB completion 68%
Most SB TD passes 11
Lowest SB int % @ 0% - 122 attempts 0 ints
Most SB total passing yds 1,142
NFL Hall of Fame

and the 49ers said, "Hit the road Jack!"


"Vios con dios Adam"

Of course, what you don't mention is that the 49ers had another future HOFer waiting for his chance to start (Steve Young). We'll see who lines up for the next FG and/or kickoff for the Pats.