Yeah... sure... going deep into the playoffs and then having the top pick in the draft the next year would be just
horrible...
It has nothing to do with going deep in the playoffs. It has everything to do with having a top pick in the draft.
What would be horrible is to have the top pick in next year's draft, give the guy a $75 mil contract with $35 mil guaranteed (estimated based on what the #2 pick got this year, and adding 10% for next year), and have the guy to turn out to be the next Courtney Brown, Ki-Jana Carter or Tim Couch. You've just totally screwed your team for the next three years, and worse.
Before the draft, everyone is in awe of a top ten pick. Very few pick a top ten pick to be a bust. Guys we drooled after last April will become insurance salesmen in a few years.
Our last top ten pick was in 2001, and we did well with it. So how many of the 2001 top ten picks would you give a $30 mil signing bonus today:
1 Michael Vick, Falcons, QB, Virginia Tech
2 Leonard Davis, Cardinals, T, Texas
3 Gerard Warren, Browns, DT, Florida
4 Justin Smith, Bengals, DE, Missouri
5 LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers, RB, Texas Christian
6 Richard Seymour, Patriots, DT, Georgia
7 Andre Carter, 49ers, DE, California
8 David Terrell, Bears, WR, Michigan
9 Koren Robinson, Seahawks, WR, North Carolina State
10 Jamal Reynolds, Packers, DE, Florida State
Three, if you count Michael Vick based on the fact that he wasn't a bust. Three players out of ten were worth what they were paid. Now look at the teams that got the losers. How many of them have been perennial playoff contenders from 2001 on? Having the second, third and fourth pick in the draft not only didn't help the Cards, Browns and Bengals, it HURT them because the money that could hav gone to Free Agent signings to bridge the gap went to Leonard Davis, Gerard Warren, and Justin Smith.
(Davis is a marginal call. For my money, he would have been a great mid-secnd round pick, but as the second player taken overall, he was a bust.)