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Calvin Johnson signs $64 mil deal, $27 mil guaranteed

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by spacecrime, Aug 3, 2007.

  1. spacecrime

    spacecrime Rookie

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    Am I the only guy who thinks that rooking money is out of control?

    That since a third of first round rookies never live up to their hype, the money is a huge risk?

    I hope the Pats do not find themselves with a #2 or #1 pick. If they do I hope they trade down.

    edit:
    http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=2959620
    Last edited: Aug 3, 2007
  2. danny88

    danny88 Banned

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    The NFL is the biggest sport in America. Makes billions and billions. Some baseball players make 20 million a year. it is only a matter of time before NFL players start making huge money.
    Last edited: Aug 3, 2007
  3. patriotsdynasty12189

    patriotsdynasty12189 Rookie

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    Does that make him the highest paid wide receiver?
  4. Miguel

    Miguel Patriots Salary Cap Guru PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Probably not.
    Harrison probably is.
  5. JoeSixPat

    JoeSixPat Rookie

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    It's tough to define "out of control" - I suppose it depends on whether you are comparing this historically to the NFL, of which we are in a transition period given the new CBA, or comparing it to other sports, for which are all FULLY guaranteed.

    I know one thing for sure - having the #1 pick in consecutive years can actually HURT a team by putting them in salary cap hell - even though the "worst go first" philosophy is designed to help teams.

    Indeed, I think it makes more sense for the worst team to decide WHERE they want to pick in the draft order, rather than forcing them to go first, and forcing them to pay #1 salary in a year when no other NFL team believes there's value for the dollar at #1 - or #2 - #5 for that matter given the cost-benefit analysis of what one must pay them.

    It's a radical idea but I think it makes sense.
  6. PatsWickedPissah

    PatsWickedPissah PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    It's actually a good idea.
  7. Seymour93

    Seymour93 Rookie

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  8. Pat the Pats Fan

    Pat the Pats Fan Rookie

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    That is an interesting idea, but couldn't a team just do what the Vikes did a few years ago, take all their time effectively moving back 2 -4 slots?
  9. RayClay

    RayClay Rookie

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    27 million guaranteed sounds like a lot, but top WR picks never fail.[/Lions]
  10. JoeSixPat

    JoeSixPat Rookie

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    I read at some point the Comissioner made it clear he would not allow that to happen anymore - yet in a year where teams aren't interested in trading up because they don't think the value is there, picking #1 could be a penalty more than an asset.

    I guess for now it simply means that teams that absolutely want to trade down could do so if they accepted less than full value for the trade. And I guess simply choosing to pick, say 4th without a trade for less than full value isn't necessarilly better than that.

    I still think it would be a good rule to have if need be. It would hardly ever be used except in a sitution where, a team simply fails to get better, having the #1 or #2 pick year after year and simply needs to spend their cap space on quantity quality guys rather than overpriced rookies year after year, locking them into cap hell, especially if the rookies don't live up to their potential.
  11. Brady_to_Moss

    Brady_to_Moss Revis Island is here PatsFans.com Supporter

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    i think he will be good...but what 27 mill guarenteed?? i think thats a little high..i was expecting around 20 mill..but hey...thats just me
  12. spacecrime

    spacecrime Rookie

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    Mmmm, but I was talking specifically about rookies. It seems whenever a top ten rookie pick signs his first contract, he becomes the highest paid player at that position.

    I thought of this last year when Vernon davis signed his name and became the highest paid TE in the league. Was he really worht more than Todd Heap, Tony Gonzales, Antonio Gates, Daniel Graham, Aglae Crumpler, etc?

    Speaking generaly, the NFL is not the biggest sport in America in terms of income, of course. Baseball and baskeetball play a lot more games, rake in more loot, and have smaller rosters. That's why they can afford more $$$ for top players.
  13. Frezo

    Frezo Rookie

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    One confusing side effect is that teams might play harder in December so as to not be burdened with the 1st pick. Boy, that sounds weird.
  14. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    In terms of my fan appreciation for established players, it's a ripoff, but it's one the NFLPA seems comfortable with, no doubt helped by friendships with the agent's lobby. The owners aren't squawking loud enough yet...and if you think about it, Detroit tried hard to trade out of that slot. If the price of first round rookie talent hadn't been as high, the bidding war for a shot at one of these kids would be just as obscene as the money the kids and agents pocket. As long as we're talking about kids with great gifts, I guess I'd rather see them raking in the cash then some loser like Oakland grabbing additional picks to rebuild their Dreith Empire - ask me again if the Kraft family ever loses control of this outfit.
  15. Isaac

    Isaac Rookie

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    Yes, I am surprised this doesn't ever happen on purpose at the top of the draft. I had always heard the Vikings passing wasn't intentional. JoeSix said the commish spoke against this, I hadn't heard that, but I don't know what he could do anyway. Once a team's time expires, they next team is up, and the original team can put their card in any time they want. Unless they change the rules, it's an option.
  16. PonyExpress

    PonyExpress Rookie

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    Johnson is worth it. I'm starting to like Detroit. The offense was very potent late last season as they adjusted to Martz, driving the ball at will against the Pats, wrecking the Cowboys in Dallas. Tatum Bell will break out this year, and become a star. Kitna will hold them back with his atrocious late game decision making. The D will be a bit better. I really like Stanley Wilson, the D-Line is better than people think, and Ernie Sims showed some signs. They have a chance to surprise. Stanton will be the starter in a couple years and the Lions will be a team to reckon with. This year I can see them 8-8, with Kitna blowing a few key games.
  17. PATRIOT64

    PATRIOT64 Rookie

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    I never understood why Detroit pays WRs ridiculous money but never go out on the FA market like we did and actually bring in some defensive talent instead all cap money is gone..This is holding the Lions back,Millen is a moron.
  18. Pat the Pats Fan

    Pat the Pats Fan Rookie

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    Well, the NFL needs morons too......if for nothing else, to make Belichick the genius. In reality you can't have one without the other.
  19. JoeSixPat

    JoeSixPat Rookie

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    I know they play different positions - but everyone's eyes popped when Nate Clements got a $22 million signing bonus. And that's for a veteran who's proven something.

    So now we're giving rookies who haven't done a damn thing - not to mention at the WR position that's checkered at best - $27 million in a bonus and its worth it?

    So what's smarter - spending your money on proven veterans and finding value in the mid to late 1st round and throughout the draft or putting all your eggs in one basket with a good chunk of the salary cap going to an unproven rookie.

    This couldn't have anything to do with why the Lions are perernnial losers, could it?
    Last edited: Aug 4, 2007
  20. PonyExpress

    PonyExpress Rookie

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    When a team picks a player in the top 10, they are announcing their belief that the prospect will be a multi-year probowl player. The salary they pay him is commensurate with that expectation. Usually more than half of the teams are wrong, and deserve ridicule. In the case of Calvin Johnson, I happen to agree with the Lions. Johnson is special.
  21. QuiGon

    QuiGon Banned

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    Few people have been more critical of Matt Millen through the years than I, but I think in this case he did the smart thing in 2 ways:

    1) He ignored past WR mistakes (and a certain amount of media ridicule) and he did the smart thing by taking Johnson.

    2) Signing a contract which is pretty much in line with what a top pick is expected to get these days. Maybe rookie salaries are getting a bit out of hand, but there's plenty of people to blame for that (not just Millen).

    Yeah... sure... going deep into the playoffs and then having the top pick in the draft the next year would be just horrible... :rolleyes:
  22. TomBrady'sGoat

    TomBrady'sGoat Rookie

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    For lack of a better adjective, this is retarded. Rookies are being paid what only the very best players make while they have proven nothing. Add onto that the relatively high failure rate of these guys and it makes even less sense. Even if he's "very good" it's a bad deal.

    Where did you get that from? This sounds like pure speculation on your part. So the expectation is that each top 10 pick is Richard Seymour? Shouldn't the expectation be lowered when it is consistently missed?
  23. spacecrime

    spacecrime Rookie

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    How do you know? Did you predict Rogers would be worth it? That other first round WR who is not Roy Williams, whatever his name is?

    That's my point. A couple years ago were were all slobering over that Penn State DL (Kennedy?) that went to the Rams. Most of us were bummed when Jonathon Smith went to the Saints. I didn't say and don't recall any of us saying, "Whew, we got the best DL in the draft, Ty Warren."

    I'm not opposed to high salaries. I think it is ridiculous to pay the top five picks the way we do. A team picks that high because it sucked. Now they have to commit a significant hunk of the cap on a player that might not do a thing for them. Ryan Leaf set the Chargers back for years.

    It is crazy to make a guy who never played a down the highest paid player at his position.

    I don't know how to fix the problem. But I thing the system as it stands is skewed so badly I hope the Pats never again have to pick in the top five.
  24. outhere

    outhere Rookie

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    Completely. When the money start out pacing the salaries of top 10 players WHO HAVE PLAYED DOWNS, you scratch your head.
  25. QuiGon

    QuiGon Banned

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    I think some of you guys are being a bit harsh... a quick check says Marvin Harrison's contract is 7 years, $67 million... so it's fairly comparable to Johnson... except Harrison's was signed in 2004. The salary cap has risen significantly since then so $65 million today isn't really as much as as $65 million 3 years ago...

    Bottom line is this... if Johnson's the real deal, it was a smart signing. If he ain't, it isn't. Time will tell.
  26. spacecrime

    spacecrime Rookie

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    It has nothing to do with going deep in the playoffs. It has everything to do with having a top pick in the draft.

    What would be horrible is to have the top pick in next year's draft, give the guy a $75 mil contract with $35 mil guaranteed (estimated based on what the #2 pick got this year, and adding 10% for next year), and have the guy to turn out to be the next Courtney Brown, Ki-Jana Carter or Tim Couch. You've just totally screwed your team for the next three years, and worse.

    Before the draft, everyone is in awe of a top ten pick. Very few pick a top ten pick to be a bust. Guys we drooled after last April will become insurance salesmen in a few years.

    Our last top ten pick was in 2001, and we did well with it. So how many of the 2001 top ten picks would you give a $30 mil signing bonus today:

    1 Michael Vick, Falcons, QB, Virginia Tech
    2 Leonard Davis, Cardinals, T, Texas
    3 Gerard Warren, Browns, DT, Florida
    4 Justin Smith, Bengals, DE, Missouri
    5 LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers, RB, Texas Christian
    6 Richard Seymour, Patriots, DT, Georgia
    7 Andre Carter, 49ers, DE, California
    8 David Terrell, Bears, WR, Michigan
    9 Koren Robinson, Seahawks, WR, North Carolina State
    10 Jamal Reynolds, Packers, DE, Florida State

    Three, if you count Michael Vick based on the fact that he wasn't a bust. Three players out of ten were worth what they were paid. Now look at the teams that got the losers. How many of them have been perennial playoff contenders from 2001 on? Having the second, third and fourth pick in the draft not only didn't help the Cards, Browns and Bengals, it HURT them because the money that could hav gone to Free Agent signings to bridge the gap went to Leonard Davis, Gerard Warren, and Justin Smith.

    (Davis is a marginal call. For my money, he would have been a great mid-secnd round pick, but as the second player taken overall, he was a bust.)
  27. QuiGon

    QuiGon Banned

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    Well, I guess I have more faith in Belichick and Pioli than you do. I believe that no matter where they draft, they will get a player and then get a fair contract. Just because other teams overpay for their rookies doesn't mean Belichick will.

    It is intellectually bankrupt to compare a #2 selection to the top-10. In order to be consistent, you really can only compare him to other top-2 picks, so I have snipped 80% of your list... as for the above 2, I would never see or advocate a lineman getting that much money... but by your own admission, Vick would deserve such a rookie contract... so is the Johnson contract really that much out of line..?
  28. JoeSixPat

    JoeSixPat Rookie

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    That's the thing - IF... and IF they are wrong they just squandered MORE guaranteed money than went to the top veteran free agent CB who signed THIS YEAR for a paltry $22 million guaranteed that made everyone gasp.

    Recognizing that any player can be injured and there's a chance being taken, would you rather spend your money as a team on a proven commodity or someone who has never played a down in the NFL?

    So recognizing that top WRs and top CBs both command about the same amount of money (franchise tag amouns for both are around the same) I'd say its an apples and apples comparison when you consider that a proven veteran CB is getting LESS than an unproven rookie WR.... and that, I think, is not healthy for any team.

    The dropoff out of #1 and #2 however is pretty steep. I never felt as though Seymour's rookie contract at #6 was too high (relative to when it was signed) and indeed he outplayed his rookie contract... but that really shows the difference between #1 and #6 in terms of value.

    Now as far as Johnson himself, all the numbers are there - 6'5", 240 lbs, jumps like an NBA forward, and runs a 4.3 in the 40

    All he hasn't done is caught a ball against NFL caliber hard hitting CBs and Safeties. So I'm not predicting he'll be a bust.

    But I also happen to know that the GM who drafted Charles Rogers (#2 overall) didn't predict he'd be a bust either... same with Peter Warrick (#4)... same with David Terrell (#8)... same with Koren Robinson (#9) same with Desmond Howard (#4)...
    Last edited: Aug 4, 2007
  29. QuiGon

    QuiGon Banned

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    I don't think it has to be regarded strictly as an either-or decision. A smart GM can combine good draft picks with wise free agent aquisitions. If you draft losers, then any amount of money will be considered "overpaying". If you draft future Pro-Bowlers, then no rookie contract will be considered "overpaying".

    5 years from now when evaluating the Lions' move, people are going to look at the quality of the player. No one is going to mention the signing bonus or the guaranteed money.

    None of those guys were as highly touted anywhere remotely as much as Johnson. IMHO, the Lions made a great pick and that's the bottom line. The specific dollars and cents is just a footnote.
    Last edited: Aug 4, 2007
  30. PonyExpress

    PonyExpress Rookie

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    I guess you think it's "retarded" that 32 general managers in the NFL felt Calvin Johnson was not only the best player in this draft, but the best WR prospect in a decade. There is nothing outlandish or even controversial about the following statement: When a team drafts a player in the top 10, they expect that player to be pro-bowler. They pay him commensurate with that expectation. If he fails, it's usually their fault for being stupid. The problem is not that rookies are getting big contracts. It's that teams are giving big contracts to the wrong rookies. That's the teams' fault. IMO the risk/reward scenario at the top of the draft adds to the excitement and drama of the NFL.

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