Denver Offense: Key Rushing Statistics
1st: Time of Posession
1st: Rushing First Downs.
2nd: Attempts
2nd: Rushing Yards
2nd: Rushing Average per carry
3rd: Rushing TD's
7th: Scoring
Comments: Denver's Rushing Offensive statistics are unquestionably fantastic and confirm what most everybody already knows, that Denvers rushing attack is probably the best in the league. When you are 1st in First Downs and Time of Possession you are in control of the game. The fact that they are 2nd in Rushing Yards and Yards per carry confirms Denver's dominant running game. Even in the 3 games that Denver lost this year they rushed for 70, 191, and 131 yards respectively. The 70 yard output came in the first game of the season against Miami in Miami. Denver gets a complete Mulligan for this as the field temp was over 100 degrees and it was the first game of the year. It is my belief that Miami has the greatest home field advantage in all sports when playing at home in the month of September.
In all of Denvers other games, all wins, they were held to a low of 96 yards by Baltimore.
The conclusion here is that no one has really stopped the Denver running game all year. This is unquestionably the strength of the team and has been for the past 8 years or so. If the Patriots can hold the Broncos to under a hundred yards they win the game. The problem is that the Patriots or anyone else are unlikely to do that and need to find another way to win this game. The Patriots need to somehow force Denver to throw the ball by getting out to an early lead and thus limit Denvers rushing attempts. The Patriots have had the best rush Defense in the league over the last 8 games and stopping the run is the biggest key and biggest battle in this game.
Denver Offense: Key Passing Statistics
18th: Passing Yards Per Game
10th: Yards per Attempt
20th: Passing TD's
15th: Completion %
8th: QB Rating
2nd: Passing INT's
25th: Passing Attempts
Comments: Statistically speaking, Denvers passing offense has been extremely efficient. While they are 25th in attempts (opportunities to compile other statistics) they rank significantly higher in all categories. This efficiency is also reflected in the 10th place ranking in Yards per Attempt. These statistics say that Denver tends to make the most of their opportunities.
Jake Plummer has thrown 29 or more passes in 8 of the Broncos 16 games. 3 of those games were losses, 2 were games decided by 3 points or less, 2 were blowouts, and 1 was a game where the Broncos fell behind early to the Bills. The other 8 games where Plummer threw for less than 29, the Broncos won. 29 attempts seems to be the number where Denver's Offensive dominance starts to come out of balance. Look for this number of attempts in the game, if Plummer has to throw more than 29 times the Patriots are in the game or will probably have the lead in the fourth quarter. The one thing that Denver's pass offense has going for it is that they will be playing against an improved yet untested Patriots secondary that may still be vulnerable, especially on the outside where receivers can isolate against single coverage.
Denver Offense: Key Misc. Statistics
22nd: 3rd Down Conversion %
22nd: 3rd Down Attempts
Conclusion:
Third down conversion % is a mix of success in running and passing. The teams with the best 3rd Down Conversion % (like Indy, Cincy, KC, SD and NE) tend to be better passing teams and in general are more balanced in terms of rushing and passing attempts. Other good rushing teams with bad 3rd Down Conversion % include Pittsburgh, Chicago, NY Giants (all teams that are clearly run first mentality). However, Denver's rushing attack is so efficient, they skip right over 3rd downs and pick up 1st downs on second down plays as evidence by their 22nd ranking in 3rd down attempts, never needing to get to third down. For a team with so many yards, they have a low 3rd down attempt number, cleary evidence of an efficient offensive attack that doesn't put itself in many 3rd down situations. Also, it is pretty logical to assume that if it is 3rd and 5 or less, Denver is most likely to pick up a first down with their outstanding rushing attack. When 3rd down and long situations arise, say anything 3rd down and 6 or more, that is when the Patriots absolutely have to stop Denver and get the Defense off the field. This is the Patriots chance to get Denver's offense off the field. The problem is stopping the Broncos enough on 1st and 2nd down consistently enough to put them in 3rd and long situtations. The Patriots won't be able to do it every set of downs but if they can do it with some frequency they are likely to have some success against the Broncos Offense. If there is a weakness in the Broncos Offense this is it. I was very surprised to see the Broncos at 22nd in the league in 3rd Down conversion (a stat that Belichick consitently mentions as a key to the success or failure of a game.)
1st: Time of Posession
1st: Rushing First Downs.
2nd: Attempts
2nd: Rushing Yards
2nd: Rushing Average per carry
3rd: Rushing TD's
7th: Scoring
Comments: Denver's Rushing Offensive statistics are unquestionably fantastic and confirm what most everybody already knows, that Denvers rushing attack is probably the best in the league. When you are 1st in First Downs and Time of Possession you are in control of the game. The fact that they are 2nd in Rushing Yards and Yards per carry confirms Denver's dominant running game. Even in the 3 games that Denver lost this year they rushed for 70, 191, and 131 yards respectively. The 70 yard output came in the first game of the season against Miami in Miami. Denver gets a complete Mulligan for this as the field temp was over 100 degrees and it was the first game of the year. It is my belief that Miami has the greatest home field advantage in all sports when playing at home in the month of September.
In all of Denvers other games, all wins, they were held to a low of 96 yards by Baltimore.
The conclusion here is that no one has really stopped the Denver running game all year. This is unquestionably the strength of the team and has been for the past 8 years or so. If the Patriots can hold the Broncos to under a hundred yards they win the game. The problem is that the Patriots or anyone else are unlikely to do that and need to find another way to win this game. The Patriots need to somehow force Denver to throw the ball by getting out to an early lead and thus limit Denvers rushing attempts. The Patriots have had the best rush Defense in the league over the last 8 games and stopping the run is the biggest key and biggest battle in this game.
Denver Offense: Key Passing Statistics
18th: Passing Yards Per Game
10th: Yards per Attempt
20th: Passing TD's
15th: Completion %
8th: QB Rating
2nd: Passing INT's
25th: Passing Attempts
Comments: Statistically speaking, Denvers passing offense has been extremely efficient. While they are 25th in attempts (opportunities to compile other statistics) they rank significantly higher in all categories. This efficiency is also reflected in the 10th place ranking in Yards per Attempt. These statistics say that Denver tends to make the most of their opportunities.
Jake Plummer has thrown 29 or more passes in 8 of the Broncos 16 games. 3 of those games were losses, 2 were games decided by 3 points or less, 2 were blowouts, and 1 was a game where the Broncos fell behind early to the Bills. The other 8 games where Plummer threw for less than 29, the Broncos won. 29 attempts seems to be the number where Denver's Offensive dominance starts to come out of balance. Look for this number of attempts in the game, if Plummer has to throw more than 29 times the Patriots are in the game or will probably have the lead in the fourth quarter. The one thing that Denver's pass offense has going for it is that they will be playing against an improved yet untested Patriots secondary that may still be vulnerable, especially on the outside where receivers can isolate against single coverage.
Denver Offense: Key Misc. Statistics
22nd: 3rd Down Conversion %
22nd: 3rd Down Attempts
Conclusion:
Third down conversion % is a mix of success in running and passing. The teams with the best 3rd Down Conversion % (like Indy, Cincy, KC, SD and NE) tend to be better passing teams and in general are more balanced in terms of rushing and passing attempts. Other good rushing teams with bad 3rd Down Conversion % include Pittsburgh, Chicago, NY Giants (all teams that are clearly run first mentality). However, Denver's rushing attack is so efficient, they skip right over 3rd downs and pick up 1st downs on second down plays as evidence by their 22nd ranking in 3rd down attempts, never needing to get to third down. For a team with so many yards, they have a low 3rd down attempt number, cleary evidence of an efficient offensive attack that doesn't put itself in many 3rd down situations. Also, it is pretty logical to assume that if it is 3rd and 5 or less, Denver is most likely to pick up a first down with their outstanding rushing attack. When 3rd down and long situations arise, say anything 3rd down and 6 or more, that is when the Patriots absolutely have to stop Denver and get the Defense off the field. This is the Patriots chance to get Denver's offense off the field. The problem is stopping the Broncos enough on 1st and 2nd down consistently enough to put them in 3rd and long situtations. The Patriots won't be able to do it every set of downs but if they can do it with some frequency they are likely to have some success against the Broncos Offense. If there is a weakness in the Broncos Offense this is it. I was very surprised to see the Broncos at 22nd in the league in 3rd Down conversion (a stat that Belichick consitently mentions as a key to the success or failure of a game.)
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34) J.Plummer kneels to DEN 48 for -1 yards. 
