Belichick Blind Spot

[NormZauchin]

I must begin (to ward off anticipated sniping) by saying that I think Bill Belichick is the best coach in the NFL and perhaps the best of all time. I will be eternally grateful for all he has done for New England Patriots football.
That said, I have no idea why he thinks that quality depth is important for the offensive line, the defensive line, the secondary, etc., yet apparently has seldom thought that quality depth is important at quarterback.

The game last night highlighted the dilemma the Pats will be in if Brady should ever go down. But this year is not unique. Does anyone remember the Rohan Davey experiment? After we cut him, no team bothered to pick him up, even for a tryout - and that includes Romeo out in Cleveland. Last year and apparently this year, Belichick has been content to go with backup QBs, not one of whom could win more than 2 or 3 games in a 16 game season. I do not believe that there are not retired or inactive QBs better than the likes of Cassell (and Davey in past years).

When we had Damon Huard and number 12 as backups, we had real depth. Those days are gone. Even Flutie and Vinnie provided some degree of insurance. This crew does not.

I suggest that Bill call the following ex-Patriot quarterbacks to see if any one is willing to come back and hold a clipboard: Vinnie, Flutie, Bledsoe, Grogan, and Plunkett. It would be an improvement.

 

[BelichickFan]

I think he just thinks the upside of using a roster spot to develop a young QB is more valuable than using the roster spot for a journeyman veteran. Admittedly we seem to have flamed out with Davey and Cassel but, OTOH, Brady has never missed a snap due to injury. But when you combine the probablity of Brady getting hurt enough to miss time, the journeyman veteran vs. the young guy being the difference in a game and the liklihood of that game(s) being the difference in a season, he has decided the probability of it costing us, while non zero, is very low.

 

[spacecrime]

I suggest that Bill call the following ex-Patriot quarterbacks to see if any one is willing to come back and hold a clipboard: Vinnie, Flutie, Bledsoe, Grogan, and Plunkett. It would be an improvement.

I thought we agreed that dumb threads would stop after TC started?

 

[NormZauchin]

I bow to Belichick as a football coach, but my profession is statistics, and I respectfully disagree that the probability of Brady missing significant time is so low that the Pats can ignore the quality of the backup. Besides, the classic scheme is one veteran backup and one young developmental backup.

 

[Deus Irae]

In the only NFL game of any real importance that Cassel has played significant minutes, the kid played well enough that the Patriots had a chance to win the game in the last minute of the game. His struggles in one preseason game should not be enough for people to be attacking him the way they are.

 

[NormZauchin]

I thought we agreed that dumb threads would stop after TC started?

It's a serious issue (or as serious as one can be about football) given the number of comments on Cassell's performance. Sorry if my attempt at humor was not appreciated.

 

[BelichickFan]

I bow to Belichick as a football coach, but my profession is statistics, and I respectfully disagree that the probability of Brady missing significant time is so low that the Pats can ignore the quality of the backup.

It's not the probability of Brady missing time. It's the probability of Brady missing time combined with the probability that a journeyman would be the difference in winning a game combined with the probability that the number of games better off we'd be would have a significant effect on the season.

 

[Brady to Brown]

Brady's don't grow on trees.

 

[Fencer]

It's the probability of Brady missing time combined with the probability that a journeyman would be the difference in winning a game combined with the probability that the number of games better off we'd be would have a significant effect on the season.

No point mentioning the third one, as that's implicit in a discussion of ANY position.

The only issue, to a first approximation, is

(Expected number of snaps) * (Expected effect per snap)

 

[JoePats]

Couple of things...Belichick thought depth at QB was important enough that he drafted a QB in the 3rd round 3 months ago.

Also, please name the good team that will not have a significant dropoff when their starting qb goes down. There is no team in the league that is good enough to win the Super Bowl with their backup quarterback. That's not to say that the position isn't important, beacuse Brady (or Peyton, or Eli, or Romo) could drop for two or three weeks and that could be the difference between a bye or not.

 

[NormZauchin]

Couple of things...Belichick thought depth at QB was important enough that he drafted a QB in the 3rd round 3 months ago.

Also, please name the good team that will not have a significant dropoff when their starting qb goes down. There is no team in the league that is good enough to win the Super Bowl with their backup quarterback. That's not to say that the position isn't important, beacuse Brady (or Peyton, or Eli, or Romo) could drop for two or three weeks and that could be the difference between a bye or not.

I agree that there almost always is a significant drop-off between starters and backups on good teams. This is not so with weak teams, where the quarterbacks are often interchangeable. But even on good teams, backups can be outstanding. Earl Morrall came in for the injured Bob Griese in 1972 and was responsible for most of the wins in an undefeated season. Steve Young backing up Joe Montana is another example, and with the Patriots we have two cases, Brady behind Bledsoe and Grogan behind Eason.

If the first string QB for a contender goes down for the season early in the season, very few backups could lead the team into the playoffs, but if a starter is out for a month, then whether the team makes the playoffs may hinge on the backup splitting 4 games as opposed to losing 4 games.

 

[Deus Irae]

I agree that there almost always is a significant drop-off between starters and backups on good teams. This is not so with weak teams, where the quarterbacks are often interchangeable. But even on good teams, backups can be outstanding. Earl Morrall came in for the injured Bob Griese in 1972 and was responsible for most of the wins in an undefeated season. Steve Young backing up Joe Montana is another example, and with the Patriots we have two cases, Brady behind Bledsoe and Grogan behind Eason.

If the first string QB for a contender goes down for the season early in the season, very few backups could lead the team into the playoffs, but if a starter is out for a month, then whether the team makes the playoffs may hinge on the backup splitting 4 games as opposed to losing 4 games.

You named only one team from the Salary Cap era, and that was a Patriots team that only had the situation because of Bledsoe's injury. The next season, that duo was no more.

 

[Bella*chick]

I'm sure Belichick is fully cognizant of the need for a good backup QB. Sadly, they don't grow on trees. Many teams don't even have a good starting QB.

 

[NormZauchin]

It's not the probability of Brady missing time. It's the probability of Brady missing time combined with the probability that a journeyman would be the difference in winning a game combined with the probability that the number of games better off we'd be would have a significant effect on the season.

Accepting the logic of your analysis, I would say that a majority of quarterbacks who are injured do not suffer season ending injuries. (A guess, no data.) So a backup's role is usually to play in a limited number of games. In the case we are talking about here, the Pats, I do believe that there are retired QBs and experienced QBs who have not hooked on with any team, that would be preferable alternatives to Cassell and Guttierrez. (I give O'Connell a pass. He's a rookie and showed some pocket presence against the Ravens.)

Could a QB who has started and won a number of NFL games (like Leftwich) provide a significantly greater probability of winning a few games against teams like Miami and San Francisco than Cassell (one start, zero wins) or Guttierrez (zero starts)? I believe so, but I hope I'm never proved right.
Certainly, the longer the starter is absent, the more losses the team will likely absorb with the backup. But a decent backup can be a short term solution who keeps a team in the playoff race.

 

[NormZauchin]

You named only one team from the Salary Cap era, and that was a Patriots team that only had the situation because of Bledsoe's injury. The next season, that duo was no more.

Actually, a perfect example of the type of quarterback I'm talking about is Gus Frerotte, who is from the salary cap era. Living in Washington, I witnessed his early career, including what he will always be most remembered for, butting his head into a wall and sufferring a concussion.

Gus is not great, not even good, but he is a journeyman who knows the game and can pick up a few wins. His career record is 37-44-1 with a passer rating of 74.3 and 102 TDs with 91 interceptions. Most of his career he has been a backup. I would be happy to wager with anyone that neither Cassell nor Guttierrez come close to matching Gus's ordinary figures.

 

[Deus Irae]

Actually, a perfect example of the type of quarterback I'm talking about is Gus Frerotte, who is from the salary cap era. Living in Washington, I witnessed his early career, including what he will always be most remembered for, butting his head into a wall and sufferring a concussion.

Gus is not great, not even good, but he is a journeyman who knows the game and can pick up a few wins. His career record is 37-44-1 with a passer rating of 74.3 and 102 TDs with 91 interceptions. Most of his career he has been a backup. I would be happy to wager with anyone that neither Cassell nor Guttierrez come close to matching Gus's ordinary figures.

Gus Frerotte career passer rating: 74.3

Matt Cassel career passer rating: 71.8

Frerotte career completion %: 54.2

Cassel career completion %: 56.4

 

[D-cleater]

Actually, a perfect example of the type of quarterback I'm talking about is Gus Frerotte, who is from the salary cap era. Living in Washington, I witnessed his early career, including what he will always be most remembered for, butting his head into a wall and sufferring a concussion.

Gus is not great, not even good, but he is a journeyman who knows the game and can pick up a few wins. His career record is 37-44-1 with a passer rating of 74.3 and 102 TDs with 91 interceptions. Most of his career he has been a backup. I would be happy to wager with anyone that neither Cassell nor Guttierrez come close to matching Gus's ordinary figures.

Thats an easy wager because neither will see his playing time, or so we pray.

Spending a third round pick this year addresses your question. And to be fair, with a line that has played a few games together, Moss, and Welker, our Backup QB's will have a better chance to succeed.

I think people are panicking way too much over Cassel's performance. With little of the playbook installed, no help from the O line, and the biggest bust since Bethel Johnson as his 1st option, its no wonder he looked bad.

I'm not saying he doesn't get beat out by Gutierez, he just might. Last night there was not enough confidence around him to overcome his shortcomings and he is not enough of a leader to get the guys around him to overachieve, like great QB's can and do. But given the keys to the caddy, if the caddy is running well, we'd survive a few games with him. If he tanks, then we see if O'connel was worth a third.

 

[PatsDeb]

I don't think it's really a blind spot - there's really just nobody out there with the right skills at the right price. When a good vet was available (i.e. Flutie or Testaverde) he signed them up. I was hoping we'd go after Pennington, but look at the $$ he got from Miami. No way we could pay that for a back up QB unlikely to play very much.

Who would you have him go after?

 

[NormZauchin]

Gus Frerotte career passer rating: 74.3

Matt Cassel career passer rating: 71.8

Frerotte career completion %: 54.2

Cassel career completion %: 56.4

Equivalent numbers, one for one game played to completion and a few mop up efforts, the other for 136 games over 14 years. Evidence of equivalent ability? - not in my book.
Frerotte defines journeyman. Cassell will never ascend to that level.

 

[Truck]

I suggest that Bill call the following ex-Patriot quarterbacks to see if any one is willing to come back and hold a clipboard: Vinnie, Flutie, Bledsoe, Grogan, and Plunkett. It would be an improvement.

In the past Vinny T and Flutie were actually available and would fill the role for cheap. Name a single Vinny/Flutie type QB, who was available this year or last, who wanted to come to NE, and who would play for cheap. You can't; and thats why we don't have one. Its not that BB no longer sees a need for the role; its that there's no player who fits that role available. In Vinny's case last year, he choose to stay on the sidelines until he got a chance to start. And if he's going to play this year, he'll probably do the same.