Bedard on radio talking Pats right now

[Rob0729]

A linebacker was about the least important position to take in the draft, short of QB, TE and RB. {/quote]

Not convinced he will be a LB or at least a full time LB unless the Pats go back to a 3-4.

I don't buy the inside stuff from random posters when none of the reporters have the info.

I take insider stuff on this board with a grain of salt, but Dobson seemed pretty high on their list because there were still a lot of WRs on the board. It seems to back up the report.

Any way you look at it though, Dobson could have been high on their board and might have taken him with the Collins pick if they

Wilson sucked for most of the season. He had a short stretch were he didn't. That's a far cry from playing pretty well. That doesn't mean that he can't still become a quality player, but the team still went out and drafted a safety as well as bringing in another Wilson, which I consider informative, and not in a way I consider promising.

First, the reports out of OTAs is the Pats want Wilson to start. Whether he will is another story. That kind debunks they drafted Harmon because they are down on Wilson. Besides, Harmon is a year or two away from competing for a starting job if he ever is.

Second, Wilson played better than people give him credit for. When he was bad, he was really bad. But he had times when he played fairly well. I am not talking Ed Reed in his prime, but serviceable as a starter.

You're confusing "The class for WR didn't have an elite outside WR prospect" with being overrated, IMO. They aren't the same thing, at all. This was a draft deep with level 2 WR prospects.

And Dobson is one of them. Most of the draft reports I looked at had Dobson in the top 10 for WRs and either a second or third round pick. Let's not act like they took their first WR in the fifth round or Dobson was way overdrafted. He was one of 2 WR prospects you are talking about.

It's a frequent occurence around here for the homers to downplay the media when they disagree with the team, and to play it up with they agree, and for the pessimists to go the other way. In this case, as you know, my comments about the team needs, and then about the team's attempts to fix those needs, were happening independent of the media, and usually before the media had commented on them. The media in this town is no better or worse than most media, which means that it's about as good at analysis as a typical message board poster.

First, don't lump me into this group. I think the media is clueless like everyone else is including most of the teams about any given draft. Every year teams that get As for their drafts end up having bust drafts and teams with failing grades get multiple Pro Bowlers. I don't know if the Pats had a good draft or not. Neither do you. There are some picks I liked and some picks I hated, but none of us will know for a while if anyone's opinion is right.

Second, the Pats don't follow the need based picks and pick players based on BPA based on need. They may reach for players, but it is because they really like them not because they need that position. Sometimes that reach works out (Branch, Vollmer) and others they don't (Bethel Johnson, Ron Brace).

Belichick screwed up the draft starting with his first draft pick, IMO. The rest was just a continuation, and Harmon was just the icing on the cake. No doubt, though, there will be all sorts of claims about a team (or teams) who were going to take Harmon with the very next pick. I think BB had a chance to do great things this offseason, and that he instead screwed up on just about every level. I hope I'm wrong, and time will tell. We'll know on some things in weeks or months, and others will take years to really be sure about.

And it is your opinion. You may end up being right, but we won't know for a while. But if I remember correctly, you didn't have a problem with them trading out of the first round at the time.

Personally, I liked they moved out of the first round. It didn't look like the first round was all that strong. There were picks I liked and picks I didn't, but I am no draft expert and the draft is a crap shoot anyway and players everyone love end up being huge busts and others people panned turn out to be great picks.

Based on the last three drafts, I am willing to give Belichick and Caserio the benefit of the doubt. There were many picks over those drafts that people panned that turned out to be good picks. Hernandez (considered overdrafted), McCourty (just a special teamer who might turn into a nickelback as a ceiling), Mesko (too high for a punter), Ridley (drafted too high), and Spikes (too slow) were all trashed by a lot of so called experts and fans and all turned into good picks.

 

[Deus Irae]

While I agree with most of your post, I'm just curious to ask...what position would you have gone with that first pick the Patriots had? Do you agree that they should have traded out of the first round to acquire more picks?

To me, WR, DL and CB were the biggest needs...probably in that order. I really would have loved to get DeAndre Hopkins, but he was gone before our first round pick....and I wasn't thrilled immediately with the Collins pick, because I didn't know who he was. But after reading so much about him...I came to the conclusion that he can help the defense in a variety of ways. The GOAL is for him to develop into an all purpose hybrid LB/DE who can rush the passer and also cover....while being an absolute BEAST of an athlete on the field and make plays. If that's the case and that is what he turns into, then he would have addressed 2 needs in one...coverage AND pass rush. That cannot be overlooked.

First, welcome to the board.

Second, I considered WR and S to be the two most important positions to address. I was fine with the trade down, although I was worried that they may have traded down too far. It turns out that it didn't matter, since they went with Collins.

 

[Christian]

It's interesting that you thought S (as many did also) was such a big need. To me McCourty proved himself to be a very good young free safety just getting to know the position. I think he's going to end up being a stud back there. Then, although Tavon Wilson was not great by any means...he was still a second round pick. Then we brought in Adrian Wilson for insurance. To me, S was not nearly as important as the other spots.

 

[Deus Irae]

Not convinced he will be a LB or at least a full time LB unless the Pats go back to a 3-4.

He's got no position if he's not a linebacker. They'll have to find a way to hybridize him, or he'll have to make a near miraculous level of improvement against the run.

I take insider stuff on this board with a grain of salt, but Dobson seemed pretty high on their list because there were still a lot of WRs on the board. It seems to back up the report.

Any way you look at it though, Dobson could have been high on their board and might have taken him with the Collins pick if they

It would have been a better move than the one they made, but the safety should have been the play there. If they didn't like Swearinger, they shouldn't have traded down in the first place, because they could have taken either Elam or Cyprien with their first pick. For a team with limited, but significant, needs that matched up with the strength of the draft, fixing the needs should have taken priority.

First, the reports out of OTAs is the Pats want Wilson to start. Whether he will is another story. That kind debunks they drafted Harmon because they are down on Wilson. Besides, Harmon is a year or two away from competing for a starting job if he ever is.

It doesn't debunk the idea at all, IMO. I'm sure that they want to see enough improvement from Wilson for him to start. I want to see Wilson improve enough to start, too. The alternatives are Gregory and the elder Wilson.

Second, Wilson played better than people give him credit for.

No, he didn't.

And Dobson is one of them. Most of the draft reports I looked at had Dobson in the top 10 for WRs and either a second or third round pick. Let's not act like they took their first WR in the fifth round or Dobson was way overdrafted. He was one of 2 WR prospects you are talking about.

Had they played their cards right, they could have had Dobson, Wheaton and Swearinger with just a small move up, which would have been a much more appropriate use of the picks if we're talking about reeling in the high-level prospects at the key spots.

First, don't lump me into this group. I think the media is clueless like everyone else is including most of the teams about any given draft. Every year teams that get As for their drafts end up having bust drafts and teams with failing grades get multiple Pro Bowlers. I don't know if the Pats had a good draft or not. Neither do you. There are some picks I liked and some picks I hated, but none of us will know for a while if anyone's opinion is right.

I didn't lump anyone in particular, since I was just responding to your post on the media, and noting that my comments and desired moves weren't dictated by the media.

Second, the Pats don't follow the need based picks and pick players based on BPA based on need. They may reach for players, but it is because they really like them not because they need that position. Sometimes that reach works out (Branch, Vollmer) and others they don't (Bethel Johnson, Ron Brace).

They use need as part of their "value" rubrik, as BB has said himself, so saying that they don't follow need based picks is not really accurate.

 

[DocHoliday]

I don't see Adrian's arrival as an indictment against Tavon Wilson at all. Actually, he's the insurance for Jamie Collins:

Collins is a LB than can cover and has played safety.

Wilson is a safety that can cover and can play in the box as a nickel/dime LB.

Bill brought Wilson in to make sure he has this hybrid cover LB role covered. Either one should be able to hang with TEs.

And Deus: LB WAS a need. You always draft a year ahead to give time for transition. With Spikes looking like a bad fit and probably gone in 2014, and the success of TEs against the defense something had to be done.

I just wish I understood why Bill took spikes to begin with. He HAD to have been looking to move back to the 3-4 at the time.

 

[Ring 6]

A linebacker was about the least important position to take in the draft, short of QB, TE and RB.

This is something you are simply wrong about. No need to discuss. You do not recognize you are wrong, but you are.

I don't buy the inside stuff from random posters when none of the reporters have the info.

Completely agree

Wilson sucked for most of the season. He had a short stretch were he didn't. That's a far cry from playing pretty well. That doesn't mean that he can't still become a quality player, but the team still went out and drafted a safety as well as bringing in another Wilson, which I consider informative, and not in a way I consider promising.

He had a couple of awful plays but that doesnt equal sucking all season.
Bringing in a veteran and a rookie after getting rid of Chung and having Ebner on the roster could well have nothing to do with Wilson.

You're confusing "The class for WR didn't have an elite outside WR prospect" with being overrated, IMO. They aren't the same thing, at all. This was a draft deep with level 2 WR prospects.

It isn't really reasonable to judge depth of a draft at a position without knowing what the teams board looked like. You are judging decisions based on a vague perception of how the players were stacked on a board. Teams always see major differences between players that are stacked together on a generic board.

Belichick screwed up the draft starting with his first draft pick, IMO.

Wouldn't it make sense to see that player play a snap before making such a judgment? Weren't you among those questioning why we used a 3rd round pick on a guy who would only be a short yardage back a few years ago?

The rest was just a continuation, and Harmon was just the icing on the cake. No doubt, though, there will be all sorts of claims about a team (or teams) who were going to take Harmon with the very next pick. I think BB had a chance to do great things this offseason, and that he instead screwed up on just about every level. I hope I'm wrong, and time will tell. We'll know on some things in weeks or months, and others will take years to really be sure about.

I'm curious. Do you feel if you and BB disagree about football decisions that when all is said and you or he are more likely to be right? That is not a slam, it is a serious question that would give a lot of insight into what you really mean with your criticisms

 

[Deus Irae]

And Deus: LB WAS a need. You always draft a year ahead to give time for transition. With Spikes looking like a bad fit and probably gone in 2014, and the success of TEs against the defense something had to be done.

I just wish I understood why Bill took spikes to begin with. He HAD to have been looking to move back to the 3-4 at the time.

Every position is a need, every year. In this case, however, the need for LB was extremely low. It's one of the best areas on the team. Relatively speaking, however, LB was not a need.

Furthermore, the idea that LB was a need that justified the Collins pick doesn't really mesh well with the

Not convinced he will be a LB or at least a full time LB unless the Pats go back to a 3-4.

position that Rob has, so there's disagreement even among the defenders of the move.

 

[Deus Irae]

It's interesting that you thought S (as many did also) was such a big need. To me McCourty proved himself to be a very good young free safety just getting to know the position. I think he's going to end up being a stud back there. Then, although Tavon Wilson was not great by any means...he was still a second round pick. Then we brought in Adrian Wilson for insurance. To me, S was not nearly as important as the other spots.

The team has at least 2 starting caliber CBs.

The team has 3 starting caliber 4-3 LBs and a coverage LB to replace Spikes (who's a 2 down thumper) on passing downs.

The team has 2 starting caliber 4-3 DTs if Kelly can still play.

The team has at least one starting caliber DE.

On the defense, the only positions missing a proven starting caliber player are S and DE. The DE wasn't there in the draft, according to most, but the S was.

 

[Rob0729]

He's got no position if he's not a linebacker. They'll have to find a way to hybridize him, or he'll have to make a near miraculous level of improvement against the run.

Most so called experts say he can be an effective pass rushing DE to start his career. They were saying the same thing about Chandler Jones last year and he was drafted in the first round. So a second rounder on a pass rush specialist isn't a bad pick.

If he just becomes exclusively a LB, a LB who can cover TEs and slot receivers is a pretty high priority for this team. Spikes sucks at it and Mayo and Hightower were average.

It would have been a better move than the one they made, but the safety should have been the play there. If they didn't like Swearinger, they shouldn't have traded down in the first place, because they could have taken either Elam or Cyprien with their first pick. For a team with limited, but significant, needs that matched up with the strength of the draft, fixing the needs should have taken priority.

We don't know if the Pats liked any of these guys and would have picked them if they fell to the fourth round. They may be happy overall with their safety position and only looking for depth. Don't know if I would agree with them, but they might not have prioritized safety as much as you did.

It doesn't debunk the idea at all, IMO. I'm sure that they want to see enough improvement from Wilson for him to start. I want to see Wilson improve enough to start, too. The alternatives are Gregory and the elder Wilson.

Drafting Harmon debunks that they drafted a safety to compete for the starting position or rank higher than Wilson. Harmon is a project if he works out at all.

No, he didn't.

Not saying he played great or even good, but he wasn't the disaster people made him out to be and he showed flashes of being a pretty good safety.

Had they played their cards right, they could have had Dobson, Wheaton and Swearinger with just a small move up, which would have been a much more appropriate use of the picks if we're talking about reeling in the high-level prospects at the key spots.

And you are assuming they wanted either Wheaton or Swearinger even if they fell to the 3rd or 4th round. Again,

They use need as part of their "value" rubrik, as BB has said himself, so saying that they don't follow need based picks is not really accurate.

I never said that they didn't. I said "pick players based on BPA based on need". That means that they do pick the BPA available but it is still have a need base. If the BPA when they picked in the second round was a RB, they probably wouldn't have taken him. But if it was at a position that had some need, but not their biggest need they might very well draft him.

 

[JackBauer]

Every position is a need, every year. In this case, however, the need for LB was extremely low. It's one of the best areas on the team. Relatively speaking, however, LB was not a need.

Who is the LB on the roster who can mount a consistent outside pass rush AND cover TEs? Since you called the pick redundant at draft time, I assume you have someone in mind?

 

[Rob0729]

Who is the LB on the roster who can mount a consistent outside pass rush AND cover TEs? Since you called the pick redundant at draft time, I assume you have someone in mind?

Yeah, I would say pass rush in general was a huge need and a coverage LB is a pretty big need. You can argue that other needs were bigger, but Collins definitely fills a need on this team if he lives up to his potential.

 

[BB4PRez]

Kraft came out before the draft and essentially said that the team does not think this draft is good enough to produce instant starters. I do not think he came out with this on his own and I read the comment as the teams overall assessment of the draft. Other saw more talent, but if that is what the Pats thought then the draft makes more sense. Given the fact that team had been trading picks from this draft for a few years I don't think they expected much. They took some chances on some players who may or may not pan out.

Collins is a freak athlete from a weak program with a questionable attitude. Spikes looks likes a short timer and unless Spikes really really improves his speed (though joint alignment????) there is and was need at this position. (I like Fletcher and I think he can be adequate. But he is not going to be elite no one else on the team is either) Collins was a high upside vs. high bust pick. On a late 2nd why not?

Harmon was a BB pick - I actually would have been happy to see them get another second next year for this pick but we will see. None of the other picks including Dobson seemed all that controversial to me.

 

[Deus Irae]

Most so called experts say he can be an effective pass rushing DE to start his career. They were saying the same thing about Chandler Jones last year and he was drafted in the first round. So a second rounder on a pass rush specialist isn't a bad pick.

If he just becomes exclusively a LB, a LB who can cover TEs and slot receivers is a pretty high priority for this team. Spikes sucks at it and Mayo and Hightower were average.

They already had a coverage back in Fletcher. They sure as hell didn't need to waste a second round pick on another one.

We don't know if the Pats liked any of these guys and would have picked them if they fell to the fourth round. They may be happy overall with their safety position and only looking for depth. Don't know if I would agree with them, but they might not have prioritized safety as much as you did.

Obviously. Discussion about such things is what the board's for, though.

Drafting Harmon debunks that they drafted a safety to compete for the starting position or rank higher than Wilson. Harmon is a project if he works out at all.

I don't agree with your take here. It runs counter to BB's history.

Not saying he played great or even good, but he wasn't the disaster people made him out to be and he showed flashes of being a pretty good safety.

For most of the year, he was lousy. You seem to be trying to say "but he didn't suck THAT much", which is really just getting into the level of suck he attained. He attained a very high level of suck for most of the season. Again, the guy they're reportedly hoping can win the starting job this year played only 9 snaps in that AFCCG, while Gregory played 70 of 72.

And you are assuming they wanted either Wheaton or Swearinger even if they fell to the 3rd or 4th round. Again,

I'm not assuming any such thing, Rob. I'm pointing out that they could have made those moves, and I'm opining that they'd have been better moves than drafting a DE who can't stop the run.

I never said that they didn't. I said "pick players based on BPA based on need". That means that they do pick the BPA available but it is still have a need base. If the BPA when they picked in the second round was a RB, they probably wouldn't have taken him. But if it was at a position that had some need, but not their biggest need they might very well draft him.

You said that they wouldn't reach based on need. They've done that often. Hell, Wilson was an example of that last year.

 

[Rob0729]

They already had a coverage back in Fletcher. They sure as hell didn't need to waste a second round pick on another one.



Obviously. Discussion about such things is what the board's for, though.



I don't agree with your take here. It runs counter to BB's history.



For most of the year, he was lousy. You seem to be trying to say "but he didn't suck THAT much", which is really just getting into the level of suck he attained. He attained a very high level of suck for most of the season. Again, the guy they're reportedly hoping can win the starting job this year played only 9 snaps in that AFCCG, while Gregory played 70 of 72.



I'm not assuming any such thing, Rob. I'm pointing out that they could have made those moves, and I'm opining that they'd have been better moves than drafting a DE who can't stop the run.



You said that they wouldn't reach based on need. They've done that often. Hell, Wilson was an example of that last year.

Ok, we are kind going around in circles again. I will say a few things and let you respond and be done with it:

• Fletcher is coming off a serious injury. He was a decent coverage LB. Probably average to slightly above average, but not anything special. I like Fletcher, but to count on him to be the primary guy to cover TEs is playing with fire. He is more of a rotational type of guy. Whether Collins is that primary guy will be yet to be seen.
• I have said the Pats do reach (in fact they do it often at least based on the perceived value of a player), but it is usually because they like a guy not that it is a huge need and they are just grabbing a guy even if they don't love him at that spot. I don't think the Pats drafted Wilson where they did because they needed a safety and he was the best one available. I think they really liked Wilson and took him. Otherwise, he would have waited until later rounds to get him or pick the next guy.
• As for moves they could have made. We play this game every year. Many times the moves we are saying that they could have made end up being moves that thank God they didn't make. At this point we don't know if the guys you suggested they should have taken will end up being better players and would have added more value to this team than the players they actually ended up taking. For all we know, Collins could turn into a HOFer and Swearinger will be out of the league in three years. Not betting on it, but it happens all the time that players who were considered bad picks turn into stars and can't miss players turn into busts.

 

[JackBauer]

Fletcher is coming off a serious injury. He was a decent coverage LB. Probably average to slightly above average, but not anything special. I like Fletcher, but to count on him to be the primary guy to cover TEs is playing with fire. He is more of a rotational type of guy. Whether Collins is that primary guy will be yet to be seen.

Kind of illustrates how people pick and choose which "injury prone" guys merit concern. For example, there was much ado about how Amendola can't be relied on to stay healthy, but we can definitely rely on a questionable talent like Fletcher! No cause for caution here!

 

[Deus Irae]

Ok, we are kind going around in circles again. I will say a few things and let you respond and be done with it:

Sounds good. I'll try to keep my points as such that they don't lead to a need for you to respond.

Fletcher is coming off a serious injury. He was a decent coverage LB. Probably average to slightly above average, but not anything special. I like Fletcher, but to count on him to be the primary guy to cover TEs is playing with fire. He is more of a rotational type of guy. Whether Collins is that primary guy will be yet to be seen.

I agree with you here. I just don't think that justifies taking the coverage LB before addressing the other positions.

I have said the Pats do reach (in fact they do it often at least based on the perceived value of a player), but it is usually because they like a guy not that it is a huge need and they are just grabbing a guy even if they don't love him at that spot. I don't think the Pats drafted Wilson where they did because they needed a safety and he was the best one available. I think they really liked Wilson and took him. Otherwise, he would have waited until later rounds to get him or pick the next guy.

They overdrafted the kid by rounds, not spots, and that's usually something that BB absolutely does not want to do, because of the so-called "value".

As for moves they could have made. We play this game every year. Many times the moves we are saying that they could have made end up being moves that thank God they didn't make. At this point we don't know if the guys you suggested they should have taken will end up being better players and would have added more value to this team than the players they actually ended up taking. For all we know, Collins could turn into a HOFer and Swearinger will be out of the league in three years. Not betting on it, but it happens all the time that players who were considered bad picks turn into stars and can't miss players turn into busts.
[/LIST]

Sure, but this is what the forums are for. Some people will love the Collins move, some will hate it and many will fall in the middle. We discuss it here and watch it play out. That's how this place is supposed to work. Time will tell if the Patriots were spot on, mostly right, mostly wrong or completely wrong.