BB: Saints are the best team in football

[pherein]

I actually disagree.

Buffalo held New Orleans to 27 points, St. Louis held them to 28 points, and the Jets held them to 24 (including 14 points by the defense). St. Louis and Buffalo aren't dominating defenses. In addition, Miami held them to 10 points for the 1st half and 24 through 3 quarters, Atlanta held them to 7 points in the 2nd half, and Carolina held them to 6 points for the first half. Again, none of those teams are dominating defenses.

Take nothing away from New Orleans - they are formidable, have a lot of weapons on offense, and a big play defense. But they have also been prone to turnovers and mistakes. In the last 5 games the NO defense has forced 10 turnovers, but their offense has given up the ball 13 times. In NE's past 5 games the offense has lost the ball 6 times, and the defense has forced 16 turnovers.

In addition, the Pats defense should be more battle tested than the Saints. The Saints are 17th in defense in terms of YPG allowed, 14th in PPG, and 15th in passing yardage, despite not yet having faced an offense ranked higher than 11th in YPG (Philadelphia) or 6th in PPG (NY Giants), or 8th in passing (Giants). They've never faced an offense like the Pats, who are ranked 2nd in YPG, 3rd in points, and 2nd in passing yardage. The Pats defense ranks 6th in YPG allowed, 2nd in PPG and 6th in passing defense despite having faced Indy (3rd in YPG, 4th in PPG and 1st in passing yardage). Baltimore was ranked near the top in all 3 categories when we played them week 4. And the past 2 weeks the Pats' D has had to face the toped ranking passing offense in the NFL (Indy) and the toped ranked rushing offense in the NFL (Jets). I think our secondary's experience against Peyton Manning will be the best possible preparation for Drew Brees.

Again, it won't be easy, and if we have defensive lapses or revert to BBDB then we will get shredded. But if we play aggressive, physical and focused then I think we can hold NO to 20-25 points, while scoring in the 30's. We put up 34 on Indy's top ranked defense (in terms of PPG) and 31 against the Jets (while missing numerous opportunities against both). I have a hard time seeing NO holding the Pats to below 30 points.

My prediction: Pats 38, NO 24 (with the Pats' defense giving up 2 TDs and a FG, and NO getting 7 points from their defense;

I think your assessment is pretty fair, but just for future reference the saints defense is also good at things that matter besides yardage. I think this is where they get overlooked and probably what BB understands the Pats offense is facing, he's a smart guy.
Commentary: This is November? | wwltv.com | Football

Interceptions. #1
passes defended. #1
opposing passer rating. #1
defensive touchdowns scored. #1
completion percentage by opposing passer. #1
third down percentage. #1
turnover differential. #4
passing yards surrendered per attempt. #4
red zone defense. #5

 

[Red Zone]

every time there is a big game...there's Vegas....Vegas probably going to set up the scores pretty tight, just like last Sunday between Pats/Colts. Every time I'm watching big game, i feel like watching high octane action movie from Michael Bay with Clint Eastwood drama acting.

I suspect the Saints either win by 2 or Pats win by 3 with some dramatic ending and some controversial calls that will set the media be talking all week again. BB might have to take the heat from media again, cuz Vegas know nobody does it better than BB-- a man with an invisible steel shield.

 

[pherein]

every time there is a big game...there's Vegas....Vegas probably going to set up the scores pretty tight, just like last Sunday between Pats/Colts. Every time I'm watching big game, i feel like watching high octane action movie from Michael Bay with Clint Eastwood drama acting.

I suspect the Saints either win by 2 or Pats win by 3 with some dramatic ending and some controversial calls that will set the media be talking all week again. BB might have to take the heat from media again, cuz Vegas know nobody does it better than BB-- a man with an invisible steel shield.

Dont they always give it to the home team by 3 when teams are even?

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

With the exception of a fluke INT that was from a tipped pass from Favre against the Steelers who they had all but beat,The Vikings have played just as well as the Saints and Colts and Brett Favre looks 25 again.

The Vikings are VERY close to being considered the best NFL team right now and Favre is #1 against all QBs going by stats - his 22 COMP for 25 ATT game was the best I have seen this year from any QB.

Right now the Vikings would beat the Saints or Colts

 

[pherein]

With the exception of a fluke INT that was from a tipped pass from Favre against the Steelers who they had all but beat,The Vikings have played just as well as the Saints and Colts and Brett Favre looks 25 again.

The Vikings are VERY close to being considered the best NFL team right now and Favre is #1 against all QBs going by stats - his 22 COMP for 25 ATT game was the best I have seen this year from any QB.

Right now the Vikings would beat the Saints or Colts

Dont get me wrong, the vikings are great, but there DS is not very good Brady would pick them apart and they only have one threat in the backfield. N.O. has a 3 headed backfield and our secondary is much better. Last time we played the vikings AP had 33 yards on us, I just dont think personally they are better. I think the steeler and raven games proved that for me.

 

[darkone]

Why would you think if they win then they will drop a game? I dont get the reasoning...they will be determined to win the rest of their games win or lose this week

They might become a little complacent and have a let=-down, if they win at N.O. Remember Miami and Houston will be fighting tooth and nail for a WC spot. I think that with complacency will come more of the predictable play-calling on offense and defense which could lead to a defeat. This team has not shown it is willing to keep the foot on the gas pedal for 60 min. ....

 

[pherein]

They might become a little complacent and have a let=-down, if they win at N.O. Remember Miami and Houston will be fighting tooth and nail for a WC spot. I think that with complacency will come more of the predictable play-calling on offense and defense which could lead to a defeat. This team has not shown it is willing to keep the foot on the gas pedal for 60 min. ....

You can be sure that the Saints will come to play all 4 quarters, and this is a great test for the Pats in longevity. I know payton holds allot back for a big finish in the second half, he rotates like crazy, gets me nervous with the play clock. You will see allot of saints offense and defense leaving the field all the time. On offense its almost like we are punting every down.

Im sure BB is aware of this, he's damn smart

 

[The Dynasty]

They might become a little complacent and have a let=-down, if they win at N.O. Remember Miami and Houston will be fighting tooth and nail for a WC spot. I think that with complacency will come more of the predictable play-calling on offense and defense which could lead to a defeat. This team has not shown it is willing to keep the foot on the gas pedal for 60 min. ....

Well we will be fighting for seeding, probably the #2 seed in the AFC. Yes, the issue of not playing a 60 minute football game has been addressed and I think this will definitely be one of BB's key emphasis in every week for the rest of the season. But remember that Patriot teams typically play their best in December. They are 25-2 in their last 27 December games. That stat speaks for its self.

 

[Marko]

Maybe, maybe not.

Here is an unwanted suggestion: try acknowledging that Manning and his team played fantastic in the second half and tipping your hat to them.

You deal with the cards you are dealt with. Period. No point griping about bad/blown calls or speculating how Colts get all the calls. Just ask Joey Porter and he might give his two cents on which qb gets more favourable calls.

You mean the Joey Porter who said three years ago that the league wants Manning to win.

 

[mayoclinic]

I think your assessment is pretty fair, but just for future reference the saints defense is also good at things that matter besides yardage. I think this is where they get overlooked and probably what BB understands the Pats offense is facing, he's a smart guy.
Commentary: This is November? | wwltv.com | Football

Interceptions. #1 Pats currently #5
passes defended. #1 NO currently #2 behind Cincinnati
opposing passer rating. #1 Pats currently #4
defensive touchdowns scored. #1
completion percentage by opposing passer. #1 NE currently #3
third down percentage. #1 NO currently #7, Pats #16, but fairly close in terms of actual % (34.5 vs 37.7)
turnover differential. #4 Pats currently #2
passing yards surrendered per attempt. #4 NO currently #2, Pats #6
red zone defense. #5

As I mentioned in a different thread, there's no doubt that New Orlean's defense is pedestrian when measured by one set of metrics (YPG and PPG) and exceptional when measured by another. I think the Pats defense matches up fairly well in terms of the things NO is good at (low passer completion % and rating, low yards per completion, low third down %, high turnover rate and differential. But there's 2 key differences:

1. The Pats defense is also good at limiting opponents in turns of YPG, passing YPG, and PPG. Much better than NO. That's in the Pats' favor. My big question here is whether NO's propensity for the big defensive play will offset the amount of yards and points they are likely to give up to an explosive Pats offense.

2. While the Pats are close to NO in terms of creating turnover opportunities (27 INTS+fumbles created vs. 31 for New Orleans, and 16 turnovers vs. 10 created in the past 5 games), New Orleans is in a league all to itself in terms of production generated by turnovers. That's in NO's favor. The big numbers to me are 7 defensive TDs off of turnovers (5 off of INTs and 2 off of fumbles, vs. 1 TD scored by the Pats in 22 turnovers), and a whopping 566 yards returned on 20 interceptions (vs. 185 for the Pats on 13 interceptions). That's incredible productivity. Take away the defensive points and the Saints are average 32 PPG instead of 36.9. Add the defensive yards on INT returns and the Saints are averaging over 475 YPG. So either way you look at it, the defensive contribution is huge. The big question is whether the Pats can avoid giving NO points and field position off of its defense, and make the offense work for everything it gets.

As explosive as these 2 teams are, it will take very little to result in a 2 TD swing in either direction.

 

[pherein]

As I mentioned in a different thread, there's no doubt that New Orlean's defense is pedestrian when measured by one set of metrics (YPG and PPG) and exceptional when measured by another. I think the Pats defense matches up fairly well in terms of the things NO is good at (low passer completion % and rating, low yards per completion, low third down %, high turnover rate and differential. But there's 2 key differences:

1. The Pats defense is also good at limiting opponents in turns of YPG, passing YPG, and PPG. Much better than NO. That's in the Pats' favor. My big question here is whether NO's propensity for the big defensive play will offset the amount of yards and points they are likely to give up to an explosive Pats offense.

2. While the Pats are close to NO in terms of creating turnover opportunities (27 INTS+fumbles created vs. 31 for New Orleans, and 16 turnovers vs. 10 created in the past 5 games), New Orleans is in a league all to itself in terms of production generated by turnovers. That's in NO's favor. The big numbers to me are 7 defensive TDs off of turnovers (5 off of INTs and 2 off of fumbles, vs. 1 TD scored by the Pats in 22 turnovers), and a whopping 566 yards returned on 20 interceptions (vs. 185 for the Pats on 13 interceptions). That's incredible productivity. Take away the defensive points and the Saints are average 32 PPG instead of 36.9. Add the defensive yards on INT returns and the Saints are averaging over 475 YPG. So either way you look at it, the defensive contribution is huge. The big question is whether the Pats can avoid giving NO points and field position off of its defense, and make the offense work for everything it gets.

As explosive as these 2 teams are, it will take very little to result in a 2 TD swing in either direction.

Yes, I went over some of this data today, what is also impressive is that N.O. has a 92% rate of converting TO's to PT's. But then when you look at N.E. stop rate on 3rd down, we might not be so lucky.
N.O. also had 13 TO's in 4 games so this could go either way in my opinion.
I would not be surprised if a number of TO's happened on both sides and really don't contribute to the ending score because we even out.

Im really stating to think this is a field position game,hmmm

 

[Modest]

Yes, I went over some of this data today, what is also impressive is that N.O. has a 92% rate of converting TO's to PT's. But then when you look at N.E. stop rate on 3rd down, we might not be so lucky.
N.O. also had 13 TO's in 4 games so this could go either way in my opinion.
I would not be surprised if a number of TO's happened on both sides and really don't contribute to the ending score because we even out.

Im really stating to think this is a field position game,hmmm

Which Saints forum are you from pherin? I tried registering at SR but they want a ISP based email, so I went with Blackandgold. They mostly seem to ignore me or consider me a troll.

 

[pherein]

Which Saints forum are you from pherin? I tried registering at SR but they want a ISP based email, so I went with Blackandgold. They mostly seem to ignore me or consider me a troll.

I go to both sometimes, forums get a little unrealistic for me, so I tend to troll the other team and try to spark a good football conversation.

 

[VJCPatriot]

New Orleans has a ballhawking defense that is a bit better than the Colts D imo. This will be a tough game. The Pats can win, but as usual BB is playing up the other team. That's coach speech for - are you guys up for the challenge? Let's knock off the best team in the league!

 

[ausbacker]

I go to both sometimes, forums get a little unrealistic for me, so I tend to troll the other team and try to spark a good football conversation.

I'll spark something with you pherein. The Saints are crap. Drew Brees is crap. The on pace to be a record setting offense is crap. The high turnover forcing defense is crap. Just kidding

It's been a pleasure reading your contributions, much like that of other knowledgeable team posters interested in talking football rather than making it a pissing contest over my team is better than your team.

Keep up the good work.

 

[pherein]

I'll spark something with you pherein. The Saints are crap. Drew Brees is crap. The on pace to be a record setting offense is crap. The high turnover forcing defense is crap. Just kidding

It's been a pleasure reading your contributions, much like that of other knowledgeable team posters interested in talking football rather than making it a pissing contest over my team is better than your team.

Keep up the good work.

lol, Thanks and nice to be in a board where they dont throw batteries at you on game day like they did in philly. I think allot of Patriot fans that come down to the Dome will be very pleasantly surprised, and have one of the best times they have had at a opposing teams stadium. We dont abide rudeness here, we allow the team to play in N.O. so we can drink and eat.

I think allot of people can find this or that inch to say one team is better than the other, and lord knows Ive tried, but its just not true. Come Monday 2 damn good teams are going to play some good ball, and lets hope no one will get hurt, but we all know someone will in this game.

 

[SAINT ANGER]

He's right, and you guys should be able to know a complete team when you see one. Saints went to the NFCCG in '06 and were 8-8 last season having lost 5 games by 3 pts or less. Having been the #1 offense 2 of those 3 yrs(#4 in '07) and are currently #1 offense, all we needed was a defense, and we got one that is ballhawking. The emphasis in the offseason was to close out games. The climb back to respectability is a tough road, but here we are 3 yrs later at 10-0 and facing the league's latest dynasty on MNF in our house. Statement Game. The whole nation will be tuned in to this game so it seems.

 

[Colts Troll]

He's right, and you guys should be able to know a complete team when you see one. Saints went to the NFCCG in '06 and were 8-8 last season having lost 5 games by 3 pts or less. Having been the #1 offense 2 of those 3 yrs(#4 in '07) and are currently #1 offense, all we needed was a defense, and we got one that is ballhawking. The emphasis in the offseason was to close out games. The climb back to respectability is a tough road, but here we are 3 yrs later at 10-0 and facing the league's latest dynasty on MNF in our house. Statement Game. The whole nation will be tuned in to this game so it seems.

It will be an interesting game. Also, BB may in fact be right about the Saints being the best team in football. However, I do believe that your D is a bit overrated. Your D has beaten up on a lot of crappy teams this year. I hate to pull the "you have an easy schedule" out of a hat, but you do. Check this out. Here is a list of some of the top teams and the records of their opponents thus far:

Colts= 47-53 for a 10-0 record
Patriots= 47-53 for a 7-3 record
Saints= 37-63 for a 10-0 record
Vikings= 35-65 for a 9-1 record

Here is a game by game summary:

SAINTS SCHEDULE
Sep 13 DET 27 @ NO 45 Final (Detroit 2-8)
2 Sep 20 NO 48 @ PHI 22 Final (Eagles 6-4/Mcnabb did not play)
3 Sep 27 NO 27 @ BUF 7 Final (Buffalo 3-7)
4 Oct 04 NYJ 10 @ NO 24 Final (Jets 4-6)
6 Oct 18 NYG 27 @ NO 48 Final (Giants 6-4)
7 Oct 25 NO 46 @ MIA 34 Final (Dolphins 5-5)
8 Nov 02 ATL 27 @ NO 35 Final (Falcons 5-5)
9 Nov 08 CAR 20 @ NO 30 Final (Panthers 4-6)
10 Nov 15 NO 28 @ STL 23 Final (Rams 1-9)
11 Nov 22 NO 38 @ TB 7 Final (Buccaneers 1-9)

VIKINGS SCHEDULE
Sep 13 MIN 34 @ CLE 20 Final (Browns 1-9)
2 Sep 20 MIN 27 @ DET 13 Final (Lions 2-8)
3 Sep 27 SF 24 @ MIN 27 Final (49ers 4-6)
4 Oct 05 GB 23 @ MIN 30 Final (Packers 6-4)
5 Oct 11 MIN 38 @ STL 10 Final (Rams 1-9)
6 Oct 18 BAL 31 @ MIN 33 Final (Ravens 5-5)
7 Oct 25 MIN 17 @ PIT 27 Final (Steelers 6-4, lost)
8 Nov 01 MIN 38 @ GB 26 Final (Packers 6-4)
10 Nov 15 DET 10 @ MIN 27 Final (Lions 2-8)
11 Nov 22 SEA 9 @ MIN 35 Final (Seahawks 3-7)

PATRIOTS SCHEDULE
Sep 14 BUF 24 @ NE 25 (Bills 3-7)
Sep 20 NE 9 @ NYJ 16 (Jets 4-6)
Sep 27 ATL 10 @ NE 26 (Falcons 5-5)
Oct 04 BAL 21 @ NE 27 (Ravens 5-5)
Oct 11 NE 17 @ DEN 20 (Broncos 6-4)*****Lost
Oct 18 TEN 0 @ NE 59 (Titans 3-6)
Oct 25 NE 35 @ TB 7 (Buccaneers 1-9)
Nov 08 MIA 17 @ NE 27 (Dolphins 5-5)
Nov 15 NE 34 @ IND 35 (Colts 10-0)******Lost
Nov 22 NYJ 14 @ NE 31 (Jets 4-6)

 

[WhoDat]

Belichick's weekly praise the opposing team:

Belichick: 'I don't think there's any better team' - Extra Points - Boston.com


With respect to Belichick, I think the biggest challenge the Pats will face was last Sunday nite. No doubt the Saints are a dangerous team and explosive on both sides of the ball...but I still don't quite think they are as elite as their record indicates, having seen them quite a bit this season. Brees is great, but he's not as deadly Manning, and we held Manning in check for 3+ quarters. If we play 60 minutes this time around, I think we'll win.

yeah thats right...a guy on a message board knows more than the head coach of his team. noted.

Too bad your coach doesnt share the same outlook on Monday's matchup that you do. ( you know, coming from a Saints fan )

 

[12to81]

I am not, nor should anybody be, afraid of Drew Brees.

Peyton is on a whole nother level.

We will pick Brees twice, you heard it here first.

The thing is, the guy's just not that good.

Give him the ball with 20 yards to go like Peyton had last week, he doesn't get it.

People think he is for some reason having mediocre games against teams the likes of the Phins. And good ones opening the year against the LIONS.

Hell, Trent Dilfer will throw 3 touchdowns against this years Lions and Rams teams.

They will not beat us.

And they have proven nothing, thusfar.