Looking into my crystal ball, here's how I think it will play out:
Patriots (10-1)
vs Eagles - Win easily, with or without Gronk/Hightower
@ Texans *SNF* - Tough time scoring against Texans, but the D shuts them down. Win in a low scoring, close game, something like 17-13.
vs Titans - Should be a relatively easy win at home.
@ Jets - The Pats are still better, but I can see the Jets winning this one.
@ Dolphins - All depends on whether the Pats need the game or not. If they don't need the win, they'll rest people and probably lose. If they do need the win, they'll play all out for it. But let's assume they lose. See below.
Broncos (9-2)
@ Chargers - Win, riding some momentum.
vs Raiders - Win. If the game was in Oakland, I think they'd lose. But it's in Denver, so.... Win.
@ Steelers - Loss. Big Ben plays well, and Osweiler struggles.
vs Bengals *MNF* - Huge game. In Denver. Cincy never wins in prime time. Win for Denver.
vs Chargers - Win at home.
RECORD: 13-3
Bengals (9-2)
@ Browns - Win.
vs Steelers - Win.
@ 49ers *SNF* - Win.
@ Broncos *MNF* - Loss - see above.
vs Ravens - Win.
RECORD: 13-3
Denver would hold the tiebreaker over Cincy based on H2H, if the two of them were at 13-3, with New England at 14-2. But let's say NE loses to Miami, putting them at 13-3 as well. In a 3-way tie for the top seed, given that the three teams are in different divisions, the first tiebreaker would be H2H, but ONLY if all three teams have played each other. And that, obviously, would not apply, since NE will not play Cincy. So the next tiebreaker is record within the conference. And if I'm right above, here's how the final records will play out:
NE: 13-3 overall, 9-3 conference
Den: 13-3 overall, 9-3 conference
Cin: 13-3 overall, 10-2 conference
This would give Cincy the #1 seed, leaving NE and Den battling for the #2 seed. You then go back to H2H, I think, and that means Denver would be the #2 seed.
Long story short, I see Cincy and Denver both being 13-3, which means that, given the tiebreakers, NE almost certainly has to go 14-2 in order to get a bye at all, never mind the #1 seed. But if they go 14-2, they'll be in excellent shape for the #1 seed.
So it's a 5-game race for the top seed. It would be HUGE for the Patriots to get the #1 seed. And honestly, I guess if it comes down to needing just one win in their last two games, against the Jets and Dolphins, even though both games are on the road, I can't see NE losing both of them.
So I say the Pats finish 14-2 and get the #1 seed. Take a week off to get healthy, and then play the #4, #5, or #6 seed at home in the divisional round, with Amendola, Edelman, Gronk, Collins, and Hightower all healthy. I'll take my chances with that.