It's been clear to me for a while that offenses have evolved to create mismatches. The spread was one step in that direction. Moving to a TE based offense gives a team the option - if you have the right personnel - of seamlessly morphing between power and spread formations. Guys like Rob Gronkowski can function as additoinal linemen, and guys like Aaron Hernandez can move all over the field, including functioning as RBs and WRs. It's the "queen on the chessboard" theory, as Mike Smith called it. Others have suggested that TE's function as "compound multipliers". I have been hoping to see the Pats integrate the running game into the offense more seamlessly, including using "flex backs" in the passing attack more, and I thought the drafting of Vereen and Ridley was a move in this direction. But I saw less of that in 2011 than I had hoped, perhaps because of injuries and the short offseason. Hopefully we'll see more of that this year.
As offenses become more versatile and are able to do more things with the same personnel, it puts more pressure on defenses to adapt. We've seen offenses force defenses to "show their hand", and use the hurry up to prevent defenses from substituting. The ultimate offense will be able to morph freely using the same personnel and will allow a master QB like Brady to read the defense and pick the weak spot, and find the favorable mismatch.
How do you counter all this? With a defense that can similarly disguise itself and morph seamlessly with the same personnel. That obviously requires very versatile and intelligent defenders.
When you play 70% of your snaps in the "sub" defense, distinctions like base / sub are irrelevant. The nickel is the new base, and the dime is the new nickel. Having 5 DBs on the field most of the time requires guys who are physical and can support the run as well as cover. I've seen BB moving towards a secondary of interchangeable parts - a bunch of defenders who can play FS or CB including the slot, outside overage man, press, and zone. I call those guys "raptors". McCourty, Dowling, Arrington, Moore, Gregory, Wilson and Dennard are all capable of playing a variety of roles.
As for the front 7, which is really a front 6 most of the time, I believe that we'll see a versatile group that blends 3-4 and 4-3 schemes and integrates 2-gap and 1-gap elements, gap control and attacking, and amaeboid concepts to disguise itself. Once they have the base down - which will take a good half season plus, maybe longer - guys will be moving fluidly all the time. We'll see 4-2-5 morph into 2-4-5 into 5-1-5 into 3-3-5 all the time. You'll see BB put Chandler Jones inside next to Vince Wilfork (once Jones puts on some lower body strength he will be like Jarvis Green on steroids as an inside pass rusher) with Andre Carter (if he's re-signed) and Dont'a Hightower outside and Mayo-Ninikovich at LB, then move Ninko up on the line in a NASCAR variant, or drop Hightower back into a 3-3-5. Guys like Ninkovich, Hightower and Dane Fletcher have incredible versatility. You also need guys like Mayo and Chung with superior processing and diagnostic ability to function as the "QBs" of the front 6/7 and secondary and coordinate everything.
Such a defense would not only make it much harder for opposing offenses to read what the defense is going to do and find a mismatch, it will create tremendous confusion and force the opposing offense into key mistakes. And it's hard to play hurry up when you can't figure out what the defense is going to throw at you.
The game is evolving into basically a poker match between offense and defense, with each side trying to find a competitive mismatch that gives them the advantage. There are the physical mismatches - kind of like what cards you hold - and then there's the strategy. Overwhelming cards are always an advantage, but you don't always have them. If you do, then it's pretty simple, you just cash in your chips - if your pass rushers can overwhelm their offensive line or if your TEs can overpower their LBs and DBs, then you just play to your strengths and don't worry much about strategy. But if the cards are more evenly balanced, then it gets interesting. Whoever tips their hand first is at a distinct disadvantage. If your offense can change schemes with the same personnel and force the defense to choose its approach and personnel, then you are at a HUGE advantage - especially if you can force the pace to tire them out and prevent them from making adjustments. Conversely, if your defense can handle multiple offensive schemes with the same personnel and can disguise what it's doing, then you take away the opposing offense's advantage - in fact, many offenses will simply self-destruct if they can't figure out what you are going to do. They'll be so paralyzed by trying to decode the defense that they will make mistakes. You'll confuse them and slow them down. And that puts your defense at a HUGE advantage.
The trick, of course, is finding the right personnel to make it work and training them to be able to execute flawlessly. Not so simple. But it seems like we're moving in the right direction.
