Any ideas on how to upgrade at TE?

[PatsFanInVa]

Does anybody have Chandler's injury history? I am way too casual an observer to have tracked it. But the "Chandler we see here isn't the Chandler from Buffalo" - in the absence of an injury he could not overcome - reads like this, statistically...

Scott Chandler NFL Football Statistics | Pro-Football-Reference.com

So since 2011, as a #1 TE in Buffalo...
389/6 TD
571/6 TD
655/2 TD
497/3 TD

In NE as a #2 TE in NE...
259/4 TDs

(on 42 targets, a little more than half the targets he got in the previous 3 years, about equal to his targets in 2011).

Yards per reception better than 2011 and 2014, worse than 2012 and 2013. More TDs in 2015 on 42 targets than in 2013 (total 81 targets) or 2014 (total 70 targets).

Reception per targets dropped... that is, the flip side of QB "misses," drops, etc., combined, .... But the BIG drop was 2011 to all other years:

2015, 55% targets caught
2014, 67% caught
2013, 65% caught
2012, 58% caught
2011, 83% caught

There are a lot of variables, but some very big ones are that in 2015 he was a backup, and that in 2015 he was playing with a new QB in a new system. Both of those are factors that seem surmountable - with the exception that if you can't get used to fewer reps with the first team, and you get your jock in a twist, you might not be able to bounce back.

Of course, there is the option of replacing Tom Brady with Ryan Fitzpatrick and promote Chandler over Gronk so that we can get another Buffalo 2011 performance out of Chandler. I mean, the dude caught 6 TDs

Okay, other variables, maybe 30 YO looks bad on Chandler, he's an early drop-off guy... maybe there is an injury I don't know about.

I'd conclude that yeah it would be nice if he didn't drop as many balls.

A lot of his numbers drop after Fitzpatrick is gone (end 2012).

If we're comparing against 2013/2014, it looks like his performance suffered from the difference b/w his chemistry with Fitzpatrick and the Orton/Manuel merry-go-round.

Should his performance be greatly enhanced, playing with Brady (a more accurate passer than any predecessor QB he's played with?) You would think. But Brady also throws with a lot of zip on the ball.

I don't have TE1 -> TE2 conversions to study as a whole. If there was a big database to study this, we could conclude that there is something psychological that is unusual, or that it is not unusual, by doing such a study.

If the new system/new QB/new position trifecta influenced his production, we could see a change for the better in 2016.

These would not be factors if we had him at TE2 in NE since 2011. Since we acquired him in 2015, he moved to permanent second fiddle, and he started in a totally new system, I wonder if closing the book on him in the 2016 off-season is the smartest analysis.

I'll trust what they figure out in the bowels of Foxboro. Just presenting as much as I can come up with, other than "He dropped that ONE ball I'll NEVER forget and it made me THROW MY BEER AT THE TV" etc.

 

[Armchair Quarterback]

Does anybody have Chandler's injury history? I am way too casual an observer to have tracked it. But the "Chandler we see here isn't the Chandler from Buffalo" - in the absence of an injury he could not overcome - reads like this, statistically...

Scott Chandler NFL Football Statistics | Pro-Football-Reference.com

So since 2011, as a #1 TE in Buffalo...
389/6 TD
571/6 TD
655/2 TD
497/3 TD

In NE as a #2 TE in NE...
259/4 TDs

(on 42 targets, a little more than half the targets he got in the previous 3 years, about equal to his targets in 2011).

Yards per reception better than 2011 and 2014, worse than 2012 and 2013. More TDs in 2015 on 42 targets than in 2013 (total 81 targets) or 2014 (total 70 targets).

Reception per targets dropped... that is, the flip side of QB "misses," drops, etc., combined, .... But the BIG drop was 2011 to all other years:

2015, 55% targets caught
2014, 67% caught
2013, 65% caught
2012, 58% caught
2011, 83% caught

There are a lot of variables, but some very big ones are that in 2015 he was a backup, and that in 2015 he was playing with a new QB in a new system. Both of those are factors that seem surmountable - with the exception that if you can't get used to fewer reps with the first team, and you get your jock in a twist, you might not be able to bounce back.

Of course, there is the option of replacing Tom Brady with Ryan Fitzpatrick and promote Chandler over Gronk so that we can get another Buffalo 2011 performance out of Chandler. I mean, the dude caught 6 TDs

Okay, other variables, maybe 30 YO looks bad on Chandler, he's an early drop-off guy... maybe there is an injury I don't know about.

I'd conclude that yeah it would be nice if he didn't drop as many balls.

A lot of his numbers drop after Fitzpatrick is gone (end 2012).

If we're comparing against 2013/2014, it looks like his performance suffered from the difference b/w his chemistry with Fitzpatrick and the Orton/Manuel merry-go-round.

Should his performance be greatly enhanced, playing with Brady (a more accurate passer than any predecessor QB he's played with?) You would think. But Brady also throws with a lot of zip on the ball.

I don't have TE1 -> TE2 conversions to study as a whole. If there was a big database to study this, we could conclude that there is something psychological that is unusual, or that it is not unusual, by doing such a study.

If the new system/new QB/new position trifecta influenced his production, we could see a change for the better in 2016.

These would not be factors if we had him at TE2 in NE since 2011. Since we acquired him in 2015, he moved to permanent second fiddle, and he started in a totally new system, I wonder if closing the book on him in the 2016 off-season is the smartest analysis.

I'll trust what they figure out in the bowels of Foxboro. Just presenting as much as I can come up with, other than "He dropped that ONE ball I'll NEVER forget and it made me THROW MY BEER AT THE TV" etc.

He was never any good, played a lot in Buffalo and accumulated stats because they had no one else. How he played this year wasn't a big surprise at all, highly doubt he'll be back, even for less money.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

He's basically supposed to be another big TE that can catch... not another option on the field w/Gronk, a back-up big target that cant break a game open like Gronk does, but beats the hell out of a street free agent.

I agree, he will be "right-priced" or put on the street. His production may well rebound somewhere else where he is closer to the only option.

But we're always an injury or two away from having no standout options. It's nice that "okay" options can have standout years in proximity to QB12. But bad options turn into okay options, and okay ain't enough, ultimately.

You need "okay" guys as depth, and they (and their agents) need to know their role. If Chandler can make top TE bucks somewhere, so be it.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

This is where we fundamentally disagree. I think Chandler has been awful and quite frankly needs to be cut unless he takes a drastic paycut which really is unlikely to happen, and as a result of being cut is where we need a new TE2. Chandler simply sin't worth $3 million cap hit and it really wouldn't make sense not to cut him since cutting him saves us $2 million in cap. Not to mention he's already 30, he's not going to improve anymore. Dwayne Allen wouldn't be too expensive to get, somewhere around $2.5 to $3.5 million AAV and that wouldn't be a bad contract at all.

I am not a fan of Chandler. I hope that's clear. I'm not suggesting he's great or anything.

But my point is in terms of production, he was a top #2 TE in this league. I only found 5 guys with more catches as a #2 TE. It's near-impossible to have two TEs produce like the Gronk/Hernandez combo.

If Chandler isn't worth the $3M, I get that. But I don't know how to find a guy better for the same. Allen's injuries might make him a potential target, but even with the injury history, do you think we can get him for $3.5M? And bear in mind the guy still started 12 games last year, yet still got outproduced by Chandler, so let's not pretend it's all about the injuries.

He was the clear #2 to Fleener, and his production reflected that. He won't be a #1 here, so not sure how much more we expect out of him, but let's hold that thought for a moment and pretend he's the answer. Can we get him for $3.5M?

The salary cap is rising. And looking at last year's market tells us that TEs, even with injury histories, may get paid more than you'd think.

Clear-cut upgrades like Julius Thomas (5 years, $46M, $24M guaranteed) and Charles Clay (5 years, $38M, $24.5M guaranteed) are clearly beyond our budget. So what exactly could we get in our budget?

Jordan Cameron was drafted a year before Allen, had 3 mediocre injury-filled seasons with one Pro Bowl season in 2013. He got 2 years, $15M, with $12.5M guaranteed.

He had the Pro Bowl season which bumped up his price tag no doubt. So what about Lance Kendricks? He had been slightly more productive than Allen, and re-signed with the team that knew him best, the team that drafted him. 4 years, $18M, $10M guaranteed, and he had 2 catches more than Chandler as a 12-game starter (with fewer yards and TDs).

So here are some of the notable free agent TEs that signed for $3.5M or less last season. Even old man Owen Daniels falls outside of that range, with 3 years, $12.25M.

Lee Smith, our former 5th-round pick, got 3 years, $9.35M with $3.1M guaranteed. He caught 12 passes for 70 yards as more of a blocking TE.

Chandler's $3M hit has been discussed at length, but don't forget the original deal was for 2 years, $5.3M so his charge last year was only $2.3M.

Anthony Fasano, a year older than Chandler, signed for a similar 2-year, $5.25M deal. He had 26 catches for 289 yards and 2 TDs, slightly better than Chandler, but hardly anything to get excited about. But this deal is notable because it's comparable. The Chiefs had a clear #1 in Kelce, signed a similar player to a similar contract as Chandler and got similar production.

Jermaine Gresham signed a 1-year, prove-it deal with the Cardinals for $3.1M and caught 18 balls for 223 yards and 1 TD.

So none of the guys that fit in that budget last year were a clear upgrade over Chandler. I'm not quite why everyone assumes it will be so easy to upgrade for that price tag.

Note, I don't mind the idea of taking a flier on Allen. I just don't think he'll come at the price everyone expects. A guy like Gresham might also be in play. He hasn't done much, but he had the pedigree at one point. But regardless, there isn't a slam-dunk upgrade at that price point. Just a lot of guys who might produce like Scott Chandler.

 

[Deus Irae]

And the team has always had a TE2. It's not like we only carry one TE. But the effectiveness of that second TE, how good they have to be, that's what we're debating. And as bad as we think Chandler was, he was one of the better #2 options out there.

Chandler was not even the team's TE2 by the end of the season, never mind being "one of the better #2 options out there."

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Chandler was not even the team's TE2 by the end of the season, never mind being "one of the better #2 options out there."

You're right, I misspoke. We were talking about the context of production, but I didn't put in a ton of qualifiers. Yes, by season's end he was #3. Then again, he was also starting for a while as a #1 due to injury.

So to be clear, in the context of this discussion, we are measuring production, specifically receptions. Based on that measure, among TEs who caught the second-most passes at that position on their team, only 5 teams got more out of that TE who caught the second-most passes at their position on the team.

Better?

And to set the record straight, I mentioned Tim Wright as our #2 TE in terms of receptions but as it turns out, Hooman played more snaps overall, so that wasn't accurate either.

Great. The world is back on it's axis thanks to that clarification...

The point (since I need to spell every little bit out) is that few teams got more production out of TEs who were not their #1 TE *. So while Chandler may have been disappointing, there's no assurance we're going to get a #2 who is more productive.

Several teams favour that 2-TE offense. Kubiak loves it as well. But it doesn't mean they have two great targets. Vernon Davis is way more talented than Chandler. But he didn't produce as much as Chandler either.

So sure, people are free to opine whatever they want. And if they expect 70 catches for 1,000 yards and 15 TDs from our TE who catches the second-most passes at that position, then they're free to do so. It may even happen. Nothing is impossible.

But based on recent league history, it's not likely, and it wouldn't be a surprise if whoever we ended up with next year at that spot produced similar, if not less, than Chandler did.

*And by #1, I mean the TE who caught the most, and I accept that might not be the guy who starts or the guy who was the intended starter or a guy who may have played more due to injuries or 75 other pages of exceptions.