AFC Playoff Race - Week 14

[Disco Volante]

3) Dolphins: 8-5; SF,KC,@NYJ; 2 EW's; 1 CG's; Exp.Record = 10.5 - 5.5

Saying that the next two games for the Dolphins will not even be competitive is absolutely insane, plus they're @ Kansas City, not home.

Have you watched the Dolphins against bad teams this season?

Dolphins 16
Rams 12

Dolphins 21
Seahawks 19

Dolphins 17
Raiders 15

 

[T_Brady12]

NFL - Playoff Scenario Generator- Yahoo! Sports

Have Fun!

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

What happens in this scenerio? ....

The Jets and Dolphins each win their next 2 games and end up in a tied score on the last game of the year when they play each other (it happened this year and is always possible)

The Patriots win their last 3 games

The Ravens lose 1 of their last 3 games


Anyone with the answer?

 

[Disco Volante]

What happens in this scenerio? ....

The Jets and Dolphins each win their next 2 games and end up in a tied score on the last game of the year when they play each other (it happened this year and is always possible)

The Patriots win their last 3 games

The Ravens lose 1 of their last 3 games

Anyone with the answer?

Patriots (11-5) win AFC East ahead of 10-5-1 Dolphins/Jets.

Ravens (11-5) get sixth seed, over 10-5-1 Dolphins/Jets.

 

[SVN]

its pretty clear.

Pats need to win out.

Ravens need to lose to Pitt AND Dallas - so we can get in as wild card.

Otherwise, we need Jets AND Miami to each lose one. (and they play each other so there is one).

Given cupcake schedules that Jets and Miami have, I have hoping more for the Ravens to lose 2.

For all those guys who said "no one with 11-5 ever misses the playoffs", you forgot that "the devil is in the details".

11-5 is looking very shaky.

anyway, what a frickin entertaining game yesterday!

- FRITZ

i dont think thats enough. You also need the fins to win out and win the div for us to get the WC. if the jets win out and get the div then miami will beat us for the WC . i maybe wrong.

 

[PatsSox363804]

i dont think thats enough. You also need the fins to win out and win the div for us to get the WC. if the jets win out and get the div then miami will beat us for the WC . i maybe wrong.

If the Jets win out they beat Miami and we have a better record than the Phins, assuming we win out.

 

[SVN]

If the Jets win out they beat Miami and we have a better record than the Phins, assuming we win out.

yes you are right ..my bad. this stuff is so confusing when u hear it everytime

 

[RoughingthePasser]

You never really know but here's a scenario:
1. The Pats must win out and
2. Baltimore loses 2 games. They play the Steelers, Cowboys and Jags in that order. I'm not convinced with Baltimore and I think they will lose at least two of those games. The Steelers already beat them and I think Pitts D will shut Baltimore down.
3. Miami loses to the Jets in their last reg. season game. I think Miami will incur some key injuries in the next few games. SF is on a roll and may come to Miami and beat them-or Miami gets beat at Arrowhead Stadium. Anythings poss.
4. The Jests play a pissed Buffalo team that plays some unconventional ST stuff and beats them. Buffalo has lost twice3 to Miami, once to us and the Jets. Buffalo will hopefully win. Playing in Seattle will not be easy and I wouldn't be suprised if the Jets lose like they did in SF. Who knows who will win the last game of Jets vs. Miami. It will be a great game though. Its really too bad we're in this position in the first place.

So hopefully we finish 11-5, the Ravens lose 2 (which is very poss) and Miami and NYJ go 10-6.

I see more of our key players getting healthier and us winning out.
Who knows-it could be Indy and us again at the AFC Champ game-who knows. Seems like everyone forgot about us and Indy.

I guess you gotta take it day by day

 

[jmt57]

The tiebreakers within a division, whether it is or a division title or wild card, are (1) head-to-head record, (2) division record, (3) record vs. common opponents, and (4) conference record. If the Pats and Jets both win their remaining three games, the Jets get in with a better (5-1) division record. If the Pats and Dolphins both win their three remaining games, the Dolphins get in with a better conference record (currently 6-4 to the Pats' 5-5). That is why in addition to winning the final three games, the Pats need both the Dolphins and the Jets to finish 2-1.

The other possibility is a wild card. The first tiebreaker is head-to-head record, the second is conference record. The Colts win that tiebreaker based on head-to-head results, and the Ravens have a 7-3 conference record compared to the Pats' 5-5 conference record, so therefore the Pats need to win their final three games and also need Baltimore to lose two of their last three games to finish ahead of the Ravens. Though unlikely, it is possible that this could happen as Baltimore plays Pittsburgh next week and then is at Dallas in week 16.


Bottom line is the Pats need to win the next three games, and also either (a) both the Jets and Dolphins finish 2-1, or (b) the Ravens finish 1-2.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Missing the playoffs at 11-5 is a real rarity, despite the scenarios. Just worry about winning out. Jets/Miami take care of 1 game we need. All we need is for the other of that tandem to go 2-1, not 3-0.

The trouble isn't that I could see either of those teams winning 3 in a row. The trouble is it's hard to see us doing it either LOL.

I'm proud of all this team has been able to eke out given the materials they've had to work with. They're in the muddled middle, no, they're solidly among the winning teams in the league, and that's a heck of a lot better than where some of us thought they'd be.

But it's gonna take a "surge" to get in.

PFnV

 

[T_Brady12]

I think the Jets lose at Seattle, the Dolphins lose at Kansas City, maybe to San Francisco.

 

[Lansdowne]

I'm ignoring Indianapolis as it became obvious after the San Diego screw job that they're getting in as the 5 seed, come hell or high water.

Week 15:

San Francisco @ Miami
Buffalo @ NY Jets
Pittsburgh @ Baltimore

Thoughts: The 49ers have played spoiler before (see: 2006 Week 17 vs. Denver), and they've played better football since the bye. 3-2 with two losses in a squeaker at Arizona and a two-score defeat in Dallas. I'm cautiously optimistic of this game.

I think we absolutely HAVE to have the Jets lose this game, or it's going to be that much more difficult to win the division. The Jets could lose Week 17, but then it could mean the Dolphins get the division title instead. We don't want it to come to that. Better the Jets get their division loss out of the way now.

The Steelers should win this game against the Ravens. Division title is at stake and Pittsburgh has the superior team.

Week 16:

Baltimore @ Dallas
Miami @ Kansas City
NY Jets @ Seattle

Thoughts: I want to think Dallas can pull through, but this is also the kind of backbreaking win that could crush the Patriots' wildcard hopes.

The Chiefs could once call Arrowhead Stadium one of the biggest homefield advantages in the league, but this year they're just as bad there as they are on the road. It's difficult to imagine the Dolphins dropping this one.

Jets flying out to the West Coast? I can see them losing that one. Not banking on it, but it's not out of the realm of possibility by any stretch, especially if the two teams play like they did yesterday.

Week 17:

Jacksonville @ Baltimore
Miami @ NY Jets

Thoughts: Ravens aren't losing this game. And I don't want the Dolphins/Jets game to equal division title for the winner of that game.

Due to the Dolphins/Jets game, it's impossible for all teams to finish 3-0 in this final stretch. But if the teams are all 2-0 heading into Week 17, the Patriots are in deep ****.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

It would be a major major disappointment if the Ravens don't lose the next 2. Pittsburgh may be the best team in the AFC right now and it's hard to imagine Baltimore scoring anything on that defense. And even though Romo was terrible Sunday, he was good the previous couple weeks in better weather conditions (game is in Dallas) and their defense should also stifle Baltimore given their recent performances (played amazing @ Pit until the final drive). Baltimore SHOULD lose both of these games but anything can happen, especially with the way things are going for us this season.

Miami doesn't have many players that are used to the pressure of a playoff race, so any of these weeks they could fall to that pressure. The Jets are flat out not playing good right now and could also lose to any team.

I predict we'll be fine if we win the last 3. Going 11-5 and not making the playoffs would pretty much sum up this season - pretty much everything working against us, can't catch a single break.

 

[alamo]

Week 17:

Jacksonville @ Baltimore

Thoughts: Ravens aren't losing this game.

Looks that way, but it does seem that almost every year during week 17 there is at least one team favored in a "win and get in" position who still somehow loses. Maybe this year if we need BAL to lose they can be it...

 

[SVN]

I'm ignoring Indianapolis as it became obvious after the San Diego screw job that they're getting in as the 5 seed, come hell or high water.

Week 15:

San Francisco @ Miami
Buffalo @ NY Jets
Pittsburgh @ Baltimore

Thoughts: The 49ers have played spoiler before (see: 2006 Week 17 vs. Denver), and they've played better football since the bye. 3-2 with two losses in a squeaker at Arizona and a two-score defeat in Dallas. I'm cautiously optimistic of this game.

I think we absolutely HAVE to have the Jets lose this game, or it's going to be that much more difficult to win the division. The Jets could lose Week 17, but then it could mean the Dolphins get the division title instead. We don't want it to come to that. Better the Jets get their division loss out of the way now.

The Steelers should win this game against the Ravens. Division title is at stake and Pittsburgh has the superior team.

Week 16:

Baltimore @ Dallas
Miami @ Kansas City
NY Jets @ Seattle

Thoughts: I want to think Dallas can pull through, but this is also the kind of backbreaking win that could crush the Patriots' wildcard hopes.

The Chiefs could once call Arrowhead Stadium one of the biggest homefield advantages in the league, but this year they're just as bad there as they are on the road. It's difficult to imagine the Dolphins dropping this one.

Jets flying out to the West Coast? I can see them losing that one. Not banking on it, but it's not out of the realm of possibility by any stretch, especially if the two teams play like they did yesterday.

Week 17:

Jacksonville @ Baltimore
Miami @ NY Jets

Thoughts: Ravens aren't losing this game. And I don't want the Dolphins/Jets game to equal division title for the winner of that game.

Due to the Dolphins/Jets game, it's impossible for all teams to finish 3-0 in this final stretch. But if the teams are all 2-0 heading into Week 17, the Patriots are in deep ****.

that line sounds so funny as if the jets are playing for the pats

 

[Lansdowne]

Looks that way, but it does seem that almost every year during week 17 there is at least one team favored in a "win and get in" position who still somehow loses. Maybe this year if we need BAL to lose they can be it...

It would be quite a shocker. Then again, if the Jaguars man up, I could see Pocket Hercules doing some damage.

that line sounds so funny as if the jets are playing for the pats

Oh, but they are. They just don't know it yet.

Keep losing, Jesters!

 

[PatsFanInVa]

I keep saying: Just win 3.

 

[JSn]

This week I'm rooting for the Pats, Bills (and they're sucking, but are they sucking more than the Jets?), and 49ers.

I predicted they'd beat the Jets. I didn't know it would be a sound beating.

The Dolphins are beatable and the 9'ers are in conquer the world mode, with a clear team goal of 8-8.

49ers' goal is to finish 8-8

Not only does them accomplishing that help us, but it would make for a heck of a story for them and momentum going into next year.

 

[Steve Zabel]

Here are a couple of problems that people are overlooking.

San Fran beating Miami: It is well documented this year that west coast to east coast has been abysmal. So unless a major change of form takes place, I don't see it.

Ravens losing 2 games: They may well lose to Pitt, but could be playing a Dallas team on the emotional downer if they lose to the Giants and Atlanta, Tampa, or Chicago win. Dallas would be just about out of it. If you cannot see that Jacksonville has quit, you're blind. The ONLY game they will get up for is Indianapolis on a Thursday night. They will be looking for the airport the next week at Baltimore.

 

[PYPER]

Saying that the next two games for the Dolphins will not even be competitive is absolutely insane, plus they're @ Kansas City, not home.

Have you watched the Dolphins against bad teams this season?

Dolphins 16
Rams 12

Dolphins 21
Seahawks 19

Dolphins 17
Raiders 15

You're misunderstanding. I believe either or both of those games could go either way, but when I created the table, I created two columns and defined both. EW's are expected wins. That doesn't mean that the games won't be close hard fought contests, it just means that the playoff contending team is expected to win. It'll be an upset if they don't.

Likewise, the competitive games column was created to list the number of games each contender played versus another contender. Typically, playoff teams beat the poor teams on their schedule and then split about half the games against the good teams. If a team does that, they'll typically win between 10-12 games.

The difficult part is how to classify teams like Buffalo or San Diego. A few weeks back, they were right in the thick of the playoff race. But now, they're both all but done, although each still is technically mathematically alive. Houston is another tough one. They were out of it early but now they're playing some real good ball. They're considered an expected win for contending teams but I'd also expect those games to be hard fought.