PYPER
Third String But Playing on Special Teams
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This projection model provides the expected win totals of the AFC Playoff contenders if each of the contenders beat the poor teams on their schedule and split their games against other contending teams.
Here are the expected records for the rest of the AFC teams in contention.
TEAM.....Current Record.....Schedule.....Expected Wins (EW's)....Competive Games (CG's).....Expected Record
1) Titans: 11-1; Cle,@Hou,Pit,@Ind; 2 EW's; 2 CG's; Exp.Record = 14-2
2) Steelers: 9-3; Dal,Bal,@Ten,Cle; 1 EW; 3 CG's; Exp.Record = 11.5 - 4.5
3) Jets: 8-4; @SF,Buf,@Sea,Mia; 2 EW's; 2 CG's; Exp.Record = 11-5
4) Broncos: 7-5; KC,@Car,Buf,@SD; 2 EW's; 2 CG's; Exp.Record = 10-6
5) Colts: 8-4; Cin,Det,@Jax,Ten; 3 EW's; 1 CG's; Exp.Record = 11.5 - 4.5
6) Ravens: 8-4; Was,Pit,@Dal,Jax; 1 EW’s; 3 CG's; Exp.Record = 10.5 – 5.5
=====================================================
7) Dolphins: 7-5; @Buf,SF,KC,@NYJ; 2 EW's; 2 CG's; Exp.Record = 10 - 6
8) Patriots: 7-5; @Sea,@Oak,Ari,@Buf; 2 EW's; 2 CG's; Exp.Record = 10–6
9) Bills: 6-6; Mia,@NYJ,@Den,NE; 0 EW's; 4 CG's; Exp.Record = 8-8
What this shows me is that the Patriots likely need to win out to make the playoffs. Our conference record essentially puts us 1.5 games back of Baltimore with four to play. That means we need to go 4-0 and hope they drop two (or one and a tie).
Eleven wins could also take the division if the Jets drop one to the Bills or Dolphins. We need them to lose a division game to force the deciding tie-breaker to be our records vs common opponents.
For you novices out there, the easiest way to figure out the records vs common opponents is to look at the records against non-common opponents instead since that only involves calculating two games instead of 14. The Patriots went 0-2 (Ind,Pit) in those games and the Jets went 2-0(Ten,Cin). Obviously to finish tied with them with the same overall record we'd need to finish two games better in the common-opponent games.
That's how the Jets beat us out for the division in 2002 so there would be a certain amount of irony if we could return the favor this year.
As far as the Dolphins go, it's a little bit more complicated. If the Dolphins win out and also finish 11-5, it could create a 3 way tie with the Jets (assuming the Jets win all their games except the Miami game).
Under such a scenario, an eleven win team would miss the postseason. In this case, it would be the Jets b/c both Miami and New England would have better records vs common opponents. (NOTE: This assumes Indy wins 11 or 12 games and takes the 5th seed).
Interestingly, the Dolphins, like the Patriots, lost both of their non-common games (Hou,Bal). That would force the next tie-breaker to be used. Conference Record. If both teams finish 11-5, the Dolphins would take the tie-breaker. If the Patriots win out, they'll finish unbeaten vs the NFC while the Fish have already lost to Arizona. That means Miami would have a one game advantage in the AFC games.
Here are the tie-breakers.
Two Clubs
1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated during any step, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of the two-club format).
1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
So the Dolphins would take the east in the greatest single season turnaround in league history and the Patriots would be the 6th seeded Wild Card while the Jets would be watching at home despite an impressive 11-5 season and late season victory over the top seeded Titans.
I think I'm rooting for that scenario to play out. I love it when the Jets get their hearts ripped out.
Here are the expected records for the rest of the AFC teams in contention.
TEAM.....Current Record.....Schedule.....Expected Wins (EW's)....Competive Games (CG's).....Expected Record
1) Titans: 11-1; Cle,@Hou,Pit,@Ind; 2 EW's; 2 CG's; Exp.Record = 14-2
2) Steelers: 9-3; Dal,Bal,@Ten,Cle; 1 EW; 3 CG's; Exp.Record = 11.5 - 4.5
3) Jets: 8-4; @SF,Buf,@Sea,Mia; 2 EW's; 2 CG's; Exp.Record = 11-5
4) Broncos: 7-5; KC,@Car,Buf,@SD; 2 EW's; 2 CG's; Exp.Record = 10-6
5) Colts: 8-4; Cin,Det,@Jax,Ten; 3 EW's; 1 CG's; Exp.Record = 11.5 - 4.5
6) Ravens: 8-4; Was,Pit,@Dal,Jax; 1 EW’s; 3 CG's; Exp.Record = 10.5 – 5.5
=====================================================
7) Dolphins: 7-5; @Buf,SF,KC,@NYJ; 2 EW's; 2 CG's; Exp.Record = 10 - 6
8) Patriots: 7-5; @Sea,@Oak,Ari,@Buf; 2 EW's; 2 CG's; Exp.Record = 10–6
9) Bills: 6-6; Mia,@NYJ,@Den,NE; 0 EW's; 4 CG's; Exp.Record = 8-8
What this shows me is that the Patriots likely need to win out to make the playoffs. Our conference record essentially puts us 1.5 games back of Baltimore with four to play. That means we need to go 4-0 and hope they drop two (or one and a tie).
Eleven wins could also take the division if the Jets drop one to the Bills or Dolphins. We need them to lose a division game to force the deciding tie-breaker to be our records vs common opponents.
For you novices out there, the easiest way to figure out the records vs common opponents is to look at the records against non-common opponents instead since that only involves calculating two games instead of 14. The Patriots went 0-2 (Ind,Pit) in those games and the Jets went 2-0(Ten,Cin). Obviously to finish tied with them with the same overall record we'd need to finish two games better in the common-opponent games.
That's how the Jets beat us out for the division in 2002 so there would be a certain amount of irony if we could return the favor this year.
As far as the Dolphins go, it's a little bit more complicated. If the Dolphins win out and also finish 11-5, it could create a 3 way tie with the Jets (assuming the Jets win all their games except the Miami game).
Under such a scenario, an eleven win team would miss the postseason. In this case, it would be the Jets b/c both Miami and New England would have better records vs common opponents. (NOTE: This assumes Indy wins 11 or 12 games and takes the 5th seed).
Interestingly, the Dolphins, like the Patriots, lost both of their non-common games (Hou,Bal). That would force the next tie-breaker to be used. Conference Record. If both teams finish 11-5, the Dolphins would take the tie-breaker. If the Patriots win out, they'll finish unbeaten vs the NFC while the Fish have already lost to Arizona. That means Miami would have a one game advantage in the AFC games.
Here are the tie-breakers.
Two Clubs
1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated during any step, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of the two-club format).
1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
So the Dolphins would take the east in the greatest single season turnaround in league history and the Patriots would be the 6th seeded Wild Card while the Jets would be watching at home despite an impressive 11-5 season and late season victory over the top seeded Titans.
I think I'm rooting for that scenario to play out. I love it when the Jets get their hearts ripped out.
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