The AFCE Playoffs situation in detail
Current Standings:
Jets 8-4
Pats 7-5
Fins 7-5
Bills 6-4
The Division.
The Jets control their own destiny.
If the Jets win out they win the division and will get a likely 3rd seed. It is unlikely the Jets could pass the Steelers for the 2nd seed. The Steelers (9-3). If both team end the season 12-4, the Steelers would win the tie breakers on Conf record.
The Fish control their own destiny.
If the Fins win all their remaining games, they win the division.
Considering the situation where Fins win all their games, Jets win all their games except Fins and the Pats win the last four. This would have all three teams splitting head to head. Each team would have a div record of 4-2. The common game records for Pats and Mia would be 9-1, for the Jets 7-3. The Conf record for Mia would be 8-4, NEP 7-5.
If the Bills get hot there could be a four way tie @ 10-6
Consider the situation where Bills win all their games, Pats win all but Bills. Jets lose to the Bills and Mia but win there other two games, MIA wins all but the Bills game. All four would be 10-6. Head to head each team would split. All four teams would be 3-3 in the division. Common games: NE 7-1 MIA 7-1 Jets 5-3 Bills 6-2. Conf record: MIA 7-4
NE 6-5. So the division would end MIA, NE, Bills, Jets..
To win the division Pats need help.
Three things must happen for the Pats to win the division:
1) Pats must win the last 4.
2) Mia must lose a game.
3) Jets must either lose to MIA or Bills or lose to both SF and SEA.
(It is theoretically possible for the Pats to lose a game and win the division, but that would require an utter collapse of both MIA and the Jets)
For the Bills to win the division:
1) they must win the last 4.
2) Pats must lose one of the next three games.
3) Fins must lose an additional game.
4) Jets must either lose to MIA or both SF and SEA.
Wildcard.
Standings right now.
Colts 8-4
Balt 8-4
Pats 7-5
Mia 7-5
It would be almost impossible for MIA to get a wild card. If MIA goes 11-5 they win the division so for a wild card spot they would be looking at 10-6.
MIA would lose a tie breaker with Balt as a result of head to head. MIA would lose a tie breaker with Colts on conf record. MIA conf record is 5-4, Colts is 7-2. The only way MIA beats either team for a wild card spot is if the Indy or Balt drops to 9-5 or worse.
If NE wins the next four and doesn’t win the division they need help for a wild card spot. NE loses a tie breaker with Indy on head to head and lose a tie breaker with Balt on conf record. Pats 5-5; Balt 7-3.
In order for the Pats to get a wild card spot:
1) NE must win the next four AND
2) Balt or Colts must lose two games.
If the Pats win the next four and don’t win the division they don’t have to worry about losing out to another AFCE team. If the Jets win the division, then MIA would be a game behind NE. If MIA won the division Jets would lose out to the Pats on common game tie breakers.
