AFC Playoff Race - Week 13

[PYPER]

This projection model provides the expected win totals of the AFC Playoff contenders if each of the contenders beat the poor teams on their schedule and split their games against other contending teams.

Here are the expected records for the rest of the AFC teams in contention.

TEAM.....Current Record.....Schedule.....Expected Wins (EW's)....Competive Games (CG's).....Expected Record

1) Titans: 11-1; Cle,@Hou,Pit,@Ind; 2 EW's; 2 CG's; Exp.Record = 14-2
2) Steelers: 9-3; Dal,Bal,@Ten,Cle; 1 EW; 3 CG's; Exp.Record = 11.5 - 4.5
3) Jets: 8-4; @SF,Buf,@Sea,Mia; 2 EW's; 2 CG's; Exp.Record = 11-5
4) Broncos: 7-5; KC,@Car,Buf,@SD; 2 EW's; 2 CG's; Exp.Record = 10-6
5) Colts: 8-4; Cin,Det,@Jax,Ten; 3 EW's; 1 CG's; Exp.Record = 11.5 - 4.5
6) Ravens: 8-4; Was,Pit,@Dal,Jax; 1 EW’s; 3 CG's; Exp.Record = 10.5 – 5.5
=====================================================
7) Dolphins: 7-5; @Buf,SF,KC,@NYJ; 2 EW's; 2 CG's; Exp.Record = 10 - 6
8) Patriots: 7-5; @Sea,@Oak,Ari,@Buf; 2 EW's; 2 CG's; Exp.Record = 10–6
9) Bills: 6-6; Mia,@NYJ,@Den,NE; 0 EW's; 4 CG's; Exp.Record = 8-8


What this shows me is that the Patriots likely need to win out to make the playoffs. Our conference record essentially puts us 1.5 games back of Baltimore with four to play. That means we need to go 4-0 and hope they drop two (or one and a tie).

Eleven wins could also take the division if the Jets drop one to the Bills or Dolphins. We need them to lose a division game to force the deciding tie-breaker to be our records vs common opponents.

For you novices out there, the easiest way to figure out the records vs common opponents is to look at the records against non-common opponents instead since that only involves calculating two games instead of 14. The Patriots went 0-2 (Ind,Pit) in those games and the Jets went 2-0(Ten,Cin). Obviously to finish tied with them with the same overall record we'd need to finish two games better in the common-opponent games.

That's how the Jets beat us out for the division in 2002 so there would be a certain amount of irony if we could return the favor this year.

As far as the Dolphins go, it's a little bit more complicated. If the Dolphins win out and also finish 11-5, it could create a 3 way tie with the Jets (assuming the Jets win all their games except the Miami game).

Under such a scenario, an eleven win team would miss the postseason. In this case, it would be the Jets b/c both Miami and New England would have better records vs common opponents. (NOTE: This assumes Indy wins 11 or 12 games and takes the 5th seed).

Interestingly, the Dolphins, like the Patriots, lost both of their non-common games (Hou,Bal). That would force the next tie-breaker to be used. Conference Record. If both teams finish 11-5, the Dolphins would take the tie-breaker. If the Patriots win out, they'll finish unbeaten vs the NFC while the Fish have already lost to Arizona. That means Miami would have a one game advantage in the AFC games.

Here are the tie-breakers.

Two Clubs
1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.

Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated during any step, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of the two-club format).
1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.


So the Dolphins would take the east in the greatest single season turnaround in league history and the Patriots would be the 6th seeded Wild Card while the Jets would be watching at home despite an impressive 11-5 season and late season victory over the top seeded Titans.

I think I'm rooting for that scenario to play out. I love it when the Jets get their hearts ripped out.

 

[QuinielaBox]

What if Pittsburgh (2), Tennessee(1), and Denver(4) win their divisions and Indianapolis, Baltimore, NYJ, Miami and us all tie at 11 and 5? What then? My guess is that there are hundreds if not thousands of possibilities depending on the outcome of games.

I'm not that concerned about it. If the Patriots finish up at 11 and 5 and don't qualify for the AFC playoffs, it will not be the end of the world for them. It will make them come back very hungary to take care of business next year with Tom Brady at QB.

They have to add to the defense and the offensive lines, though.

 

[JoePats]

What if Pittsburgh (2), Tennessee(1), and Denver(4) win their divisions and Indianapolis, Baltimore, NYJ, Miami and us all tie at 11 and 5? What then? My guess is that there are hundreds if not thousands of possibilities depending on the outcome of games.

I'm not that concerned about it. If the Patriots finish up at 11 and 5 and don't qualify for the AFC playoffs, it will not be the end of the world for them. It will make them come back very hungary to take care of business next year with Tom Brady at QB.

They have to add to the defense and the offensive lines, though.

Unlikely. Baltimore would have to beat Pittsburgh or Dallas. Us and Miami and Indy would all have to run the table.

11-5 I think would get us in. But we would need a lot of help to make it at 10-6.

 

[tanked_as_usual]

What if Pittsburgh (2), Tennessee(1), and Denver(4) win their divisions and Indianapolis, Baltimore, NYJ, Miami and us all tie at 11 and 5? What then? My guess is that there are hundreds if not thousands of possibilities depending on the outcome of games.

I'm not that concerned about it. If the Patriots finish up at 11 and 5 and don't qualify for the AFC playoffs, it will not be the end of the world for them. It will make them come back very hungary to take care of business next year with Tom Brady at QB.

They have to add to the defense and the offensive lines, though.

the AFC east division winner would be decided first

 

[Disco Volante]

and Indianapolis, Baltimore, NYJ, Miami and us all tie at 11 and 5? What then?

If that were to happen, the Dolphins would win the AFC East.

 

[chrisfx811]

With that remaining schedule, the Pats have a great chance to go 11-5. The back to back WC games will play tougher than they look on paper, but unless the Pats stink it up in the TO dept again, they should win those two.
The AZ game is the worst matchup, but as mentioned many times, it's a 1pm EST game for a WC team, which favors the Pats nicely. Will that be enough to overcome facing the best 1-2 WR punch in the NFL? Who knows.

I see them going 3-1, and finishing up 10-6.

Looking at the Ravens schedule, if they can finish ahead of the Pats or even tied with us, then they will have made an impressive run. That's quite a gauntlet to run through to finish the season.

This Pats team has shown flashes that it can play with the AFC's best, but mistakes are absolutely crushing this team in the games against the conference big boys.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

We need a computer model to tell us that the Pats need to win out even to have a chance of making the playoffs?

 

[JSn]

With that remaining schedule, the Pats have a great chance to go 11-5. The back to back WC games will play tougher than they look on paper, but unless the Pats stink it up in the TO dept again, they should win those two.
The AZ game is the worst matchup, but as mentioned many times, it's a 1pm EST game for a WC team, which favors the Pats nicely. Will that be enough to overcome facing the best 1-2 WR punch in the NFL? Who knows.

It's tough, because facing this generally soft schedule at the end (though I think Oakland will be harder than we think), doesn't prep us well for play-off's.

Winning our division would be a nice accomplishment this year.

That said even the return of Thomas and continued involvement of Redd could make a difference out there as the weeks roll along.

Either way, I think we're seeing pretty clearly that this team is awfully banged up to hope to make some noise in the playoffs. Somehow finding a way to the big game would absolutely be the years best story, hands down.

 

[chrisfx811]

It's tough, because facing this generally soft schedule at the end (though I think Oakland will be harder than we think), doesn't prep us well for play-off's.

Winning our division would be a nice accomplishment this year.

That said even the return of Thomas and continued involvement of Redd could make a difference out there as the weeks roll along.

Either way, I think we're seeing pretty clearly that this team is awfully banged up to hope to make some noise in the playoffs. Somehow finding a way to the big game would absolutely be the years best story, hands down.

We've not exactly played a tough schedule all year, and best I can remember, our biggest win came against a Denver team with an injured qb.
All of the measuring stick games lately turned out to be losses, Indy, Pitt, Jets.

I don't think this team would have a snowball's chance in hell at the playoffs if they played Baltimore's closing schedule. Which is why I think we have a chance to overtake them and make it to the post season.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

We've not exactly played a tough schedule all year, and best I can remember, our biggest win came against a Denver team with an injured qb.
All of the measuring stick games lately turned out to be losses, Indy, Pitt, Jets.

I don't think this team would have a snowball's chance in hell at the playoffs if they played Baltimore's closing schedule. Which is why I think we have a chance to overtake them and make it to the post season.

I more or less agree with you, tho I wouldn't count Belichick's Patriots out with any schedule until all the games are played, so "snowball's chance in hell" is stronger than I would put it.

But, essentially I agree. Around a month ago we controlled our own destiny with three games in four weeks (two of them at home) against teams with whom we are competing for a Playoff slot (Colts, Jets and Steelers); and, we lost all three of them.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Unlikely. Baltimore would have to beat Pittsburgh or Dallas. Us and Miami and Indy would all have to run the table.

11-5 I think would get us in. But we would need a lot of help to make it at 10-6.

We're also going to need help to get in at 11--5. I don't see any reasonable scenario that gets us in at 10--6. The 10--6 scenarios entail smoking the funny stuff to believe them.

 

[bostonia3333]

There is a very slim chance this team makes the playoffs. If you can't stop a team on 3rd and 15, fughgedabadit.

Why agonize over complicated "what if" scenarios when this team is displaying no heart whatsoever on the defensive end.

 

[PYPER]

What if Pittsburgh (2), Tennessee(1), and Denver(4) win their divisions and Indianapolis, Baltimore, NYJ, Miami and us all tie at 11 and 5? What then? My guess is that there are hundreds if not thousands of possibilities depending on the outcome of games.

I'm not that concerned about it. If the Patriots finish up at 11 and 5 and don't qualify for the AFC playoffs, it will not be the end of the world for them. It will make them come back very hungary to take care of business next year with Tom Brady at QB.

They have to add to the defense and the offensive lines, though.

If the Jets, Patriots, Dolphins, Colts, and Ravens all finish 11-5, the Dolphins would win the east and the Colts and Ravens would be the Wild Cards. The Jets and Patriots would both miss the playoffs.

However, if you eliminate the Ravens from the equation which is not far fetched based on their schedule, the Patriots would win take the final wild card spot ahead of the Jets.

This is all based on Miami finishing 11-5 since that would mean they beat the Jets in week 17. We can only catch the Jets if they lose another game within the division.

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

We can only catch the Jets if they lose another game within the division.

OR if the Jets lose both their non-division games.

 

[SVN]

i maybe in the minority but i think the raiders game will be harder than people think.Especially if warren is out for a longer time. they have very good backs and could keep running on the right side.
And the AZ game iam a little more confident. They prolly will have nothing to play for and BB will do enough to confuse warner(hope so at least)

 

[ScottishPatriots]

1 more loss and we're probably done, 10-6 teams are definetly going to miss out this year.

 

[Pats726]

For you novices out there, the easiest way to figure out the records vs common opponents is to look at the records against non-common opponents instead since that only involves calculating two games instead of 14. The Patriots went 0-2 (Ind,Pit) in those games and the Jets went 2-0(Ten,Cin). Obviously to finish tied with them with the same overall record we'd need to finish two games better in the common-opponent games.

That's how the Jets beat us out for the division in 2002 so there would be a certain amount of irony if we could return the favor this year.

OK....so two games better??? NOT sure I undesrtand....so the Jets lose a division game..ONE...so they are 11-5....ties h-h and in Div.... Pats win out 11-5 Jets have won 2...so are 9-5 in common...the Pats would be 11-3??? SO how is this bad??? Just confused...

 

[PYPER]

OK....so two games better??? NOT sure I undesrtand....so the Jets lose a division game..ONE...so they are 11-5....ties h-h and in Div.... Pats win out 11-5 Jets have won 2...so are 9-5 in common...the Pats would be 11-3??? SO how is this bad??? Just confused...

It's not bad. Not for the Patriots anyway. I think you take away the two h2h games though. So it would actually be 10-2 for the Pats and 8-4 for the Jets. Therefore we'd win that tie-breaker.

Unfortunately, Miami could also be 10-2 though. The next tie-breaker after common opponents is conference record. The fins would beat us there by one game (assuming we both win out and finish 11-5).

 

[Pats726]

It's not bad. Not for the Patriots anyway. I think you take away the two h2h games though. So it would actually be 10-2 for the Pats and 8-4 for the Jets. Therefore we'd win that tie-breaker.

Unfortunately, Miami could also be 10-2 though. The next tie-breaker after common opponents is conference record. The fins would beat us there by one game (assuming we both win out and finish 11-5).

BNot sure why would take out head to head from common...but since they split...but I THINK if Miami does not beat the Jets...they are out...as they have 1 more loss in the division...so they HAVE to win...

 

[Pats726]

How about a sticky for this one..explains ALL the scenarios....playoffs....