A Closer Look at the Scoring Defense

[ivanvamp]

I know the Patriots haven't played a murderer's row of elite offenses. You can only play who is on your schedule. The Pats currently are the #1 scoring defense in the NFL, and you cannot get there without being at least pretty good. Are they elite? Let's take a closer look.

Here's their schedule, and their opponents' offensive scoring rank and points per game on average, and here's what the Pats have held them to. I am not factoring in things like the short fields (one of them a one-yard field) Pats' turnovers have forced the Pats' defense into. In the Ravens' game, obviously, the D was outstanding, yet they gave up 23 points, 14 of which were due to Patriots' turnovers that led to very short fields for Baltimore's offense. Oh well, such is life.

Arizona - #12 (24.3) - Pats held them to 21 (-3.3)
Miami - #17 (22.5) - Pats held them to 24 (+1.5)
Houston - #28 (17.9) - Pats held them to 0 (-17.9)
Buffalo - #9 (25.6) - Pats held them to 16 (-9.6)
Cleveland - #31 (15.7) - Pats held them to 13 (-2.7)
Cincinnati - #23 (20.6) - Pats held them to 17 (-3.6)
Pittsburgh - #11 (24.4) - Pats held them to 16 (-8.4) **
Buffalo - #9 (25.6) - Pats held them to 25 (-0.6)
Seattle - #22 (21.3) - Pats held them to 31 (+9.7)
San Francisco - #25 (18.9) - Pats held them to 17 (-1.9)
NY Jets - #30 (17.3) - Pats held them to 17 (-0.3)
LA Rams - #32 (14.0) - Pats held them to 10 (-4.0)
Baltimore - #19 (21.9) - Pats held them to 23 (+1.1)
Denver - #21 (20.4) - Pats held them to 3 (-17.4)

So of their 14 games, the Pats' defense has held their opponents to fewer points than their season average in 11 of them. That's pretty impressive. Of course the Baltimore game would have made it 12, but for the fumbled punt that gave the Ravens the ball at the 1 yard line. Even holding them to a field goal there would have put Baltimore under their season average. So the Patriots have held their opponents to an average of 4.1 points below their season average (which, of course, includes these games against the Patriots).

**Note: They were without Roethlisberger for this game. Over the past 2 years, Roethlisberger has missed 5 games, and in those games the Steelers have scored 20, 24, 25, 13, and 16 points, for an average of 20.2 points per game. So NE held Pittsburgh to fewer points than they normally score without Roethlisberger anyway.

Now let's compare that to the #2 ranked scoring defense, Seattle. Here's the same exercise with their schedule:

Miami - #17 (22.5) - Sea held them to 10 (-12.5)
LA Rams - #32 (14.0) - Sea held them to 9 (-5.0)
San Francisco - #25 (18.9) - Sea held them to 18 (-0.9)
NY Jets - #30 (17.3) - Sea held them to 17 (-0.3)
Atlanta - #1 (33.5) - Sea held them to 24 (-9.5)
Arizona - #12 (24.3) - Sea held them to 6 (-18.3)
New Orleans - #2 (29.0) - Sea held them to 25 (-4.0)
Buffalo - #9 (25.6) - Sea held them to 25 (-0.6)
New England - #6 (26.1) - Sea held them to 24 (-2.1)
Philadelphia - #16 (22.6) - Sea held them to 15 (-7.6)
Tampa Bay - #18 (22.4) - Sea held them to 14 (-8.4)
Carolina - #14 (23.9) - Sea held them to 7 (-16.9)
Green Bay - #7 (25.9) - Sea held them to 38 (+13.9)
LA Rams - #32 (14.0) - Sea held them to 3 (-11.0)

Of their 14 games, they held their opponents to fewer points than their season average in 13 of them - 5.9 points per game on average.


Now, how are they doing it? The biggest factor for the Patriots is that they force their opposition to start drives with the worst average field position in the NFL. Coming into week 15, their opponents were starting drives at the 24.76 yard line, #1 in the league. They are doing this by having the strongest kickoff coverage unit in the NFL, and by having the 2nd fewest turnovers in the league, which really impacts field position. Moreover, the Patriots' offense consistently moves the ball, so when they punt, they tend to put the ball deep into the opponents' territory.

Seattle, the league's #2 scoring defense, ranks 25th in the NFL in this metric, as their opponents start at the 28.77 yard line on average. That's a difference of about 0.3 expected points per possession, and over the course of a whole game (about 10-12 possessions per game), that's between 3 and 4 expected points a game. So Seattle's defense is playing with about a field goal per game handicap compared with the Patriots'. And yet they are holding their opponents to 1.8 fewer points than their season average than the Patriots are. That indicates that Seattle's defense - when quality of opponent is taken into context - is about 5 points per game better than New England's.

But that doesn't mean that the Patriots' defense isn't elite. It's one thing to have a good scoring defense (which, obviously, they do). It's another thing to consistently hold your opponents under their season average. And again, if you take that muffed punt by Baltimore into account, the Patriots have held 12 of 14 opponents below their season average. That's pretty impressive.

 

[patsbrasilpatriotas]

I know the Patriots haven't played a murderer's row of elite offenses. You can only play who is on your schedule. The Pats currently are the #1 scoring defense in the NFL, and you cannot get there without being at least pretty good. Are they elite? Let's take a closer look.

Here's their schedule, and their opponents' offensive scoring rank and points per game on average, and here's what the Pats have held them to. I am not factoring in things like the short fields (one of them a one-yard field) Pats' turnovers have forced the Pats' defense into. In the Ravens' game, obviously, the D was outstanding, yet they gave up 23 points, 14 of which were due to Patriots' turnovers that led to very short fields for Baltimore's offense. Oh well, such is life.

Arizona - #12 (24.3) - Pats held them to 21 (-3.3)
Miami - #17 (22.5) - Pats held them to 24 (+1.5)
Houston - #28 (17.9) - Pats held them to 0 (-17.9)
Buffalo - #9 (25.6) - Pats held them to 16 (-9.6)
Cleveland - #31 (15.7) - Pats held them to 13 (-2.7)
Cincinnati - #23 (20.6) - Pats held them to 17 (-3.6)
Pittsburgh - #11 (24.4) - Pats held them to 16 (-8.4) **
Buffalo - #9 (25.6) - Pats held them to 25 (-0.6)
Seattle - #22 (21.3) - Pats held them to 31 (+9.7)
San Francisco - #25 (18.9) - Pats held them to 17 (-1.9)
NY Jets - #30 (17.3) - Pats held them to 17 (-0.3)
LA Rams - #32 (14.0) - Pats held them to 10 (-4.0)
Baltimore - #19 (21.9) - Pats held them to 23 (+1.1)
Denver - #21 (20.4) - Pats held them to 3 (-17.4)

So of their 14 games, the Pats' defense has held their opponents to fewer points than their season average in 11 of them. That's pretty impressive. Of course the Baltimore game would have made it 12, but for the fumbled punt that gave the Ravens the ball at the 1 yard line. Even holding them to a field goal there would have put Baltimore under their season average. So the Patriots have held their opponents to an average of 4.1 points below their season average (which, of course, includes these games against the Patriots).

**Note: They were without Roethlisberger for this game. Over the past 2 years, Roethlisberger has missed 5 games, and in those games the Steelers have scored 20, 24, 25, 13, and 16 points, for an average of 20.2 points per game. So NE held Pittsburgh to fewer points than they normally score without Roethlisberger anyway.

Now let's compare that to the #2 ranked scoring defense, Seattle. Here's the same exercise with their schedule:

Miami - #17 (22.5) - Sea held them to 10 (-12.5)
LA Rams - #32 (14.0) - Sea held them to 9 (-5.0)
San Francisco - #25 (18.9) - Sea held them to 18 (-0.9)
NY Jets - #30 (17.3) - Sea held them to 17 (-0.3)
Atlanta - #1 (33.5) - Sea held them to 24 (-9.5)
Arizona - #12 (24.3) - Sea held them to 6 (-18.3)
New Orleans - #2 (29.0) - Sea held them to 25 (-4.0)
Buffalo - #9 (25.6) - Sea held them to 25 (-0.6)
New England - #6 (26.1) - Sea held them to 24 (-2.1)
Philadelphia - #16 (22.6) - Sea held them to 15 (-7.6)
Tampa Bay - #18 (22.4) - Sea held them to 14 (-8.4)
Carolina - #14 (23.9) - Sea held them to 7 (-16.9)
Green Bay - #7 (25.9) - Sea held them to 38 (+13.9)
LA Rams - #32 (14.0) - Sea held them to 3 (-11.0)

Of their 14 games, they held their opponents to fewer points than their season average in 13 of them - 5.9 points per game on average.


Now, how are they doing it? The biggest factor for the Patriots is that they force their opposition to start drives with the worst average field position in the NFL. Coming into week 15, their opponents were starting drives at the 24.76 yard line, #1 in the league. They are doing this by having the strongest kickoff coverage unit in the NFL, and by having the 2nd fewest turnovers in the league, which really impacts field position. Moreover, the Patriots' offense consistently moves the ball, so when they punt, they tend to put the ball deep into the opponents' territory.

Seattle, the league's #2 scoring defense, ranks 25th in the NFL in this metric, as their opponents start at the 28.77 yard line on average. That's a difference of about 0.3 expected points per possession, and over the course of a whole game (about 10-12 possessions per game), that's between 3 and 4 expected points a game. So Seattle's defense is playing with about a field goal per game handicap compared with the Patriots'. And yet they are holding their opponents to 1.8 fewer points than their season average than the Patriots are. That indicates that Seattle's defense - when quality of opponent is taken into context - is about 5 points per game better than New England's.

But that doesn't mean that the Patriots' defense isn't elite. It's one thing to have a good scoring defense (which, obviously, they do). It's another thing to consistently hold your opponents under their season average. And again, if you take that muffed punt by Baltimore into account, the Patriots have held 12 of 14 opponents below their season average. That's pretty impressive.

That's great, but without taking away the garbage points we can't know for sure the real difference.

 

[Le Numéro Douze]

So, basically, their D might be "better" than ours, but we are a better team as our special team actually contribuate to us allowing less points.

 

[Nikolai]

I know the Patriots haven't played a murderer's row of elite offenses. You can only play who is on your schedule. The Pats currently are the #1 scoring defense in the NFL, and you cannot get there without being at least pretty good. Are they elite? Let's take a closer look.

Here's their schedule, and their opponents' offensive scoring rank and points per game on average, and here's what the Pats have held them to. I am not factoring in things like the short fields (one of them a one-yard field) Pats' turnovers have forced the Pats' defense into. In the Ravens' game, obviously, the D was outstanding, yet they gave up 23 points, 14 of which were due to Patriots' turnovers that led to very short fields for Baltimore's offense. Oh well, such is life.

Arizona - #12 (24.3) - Pats held them to 21 (-3.3)
Miami - #17 (22.5) - Pats held them to 24 (+1.5)
Houston - #28 (17.9) - Pats held them to 0 (-17.9)
Buffalo - #9 (25.6) - Pats held them to 16 (-9.6)
Cleveland - #31 (15.7) - Pats held them to 13 (-2.7)
Cincinnati - #23 (20.6) - Pats held them to 17 (-3.6)
Pittsburgh - #11 (24.4) - Pats held them to 16 (-8.4) **
Buffalo - #9 (25.6) - Pats held them to 25 (-0.6)
Seattle - #22 (21.3) - Pats held them to 31 (+9.7)
San Francisco - #25 (18.9) - Pats held them to 17 (-1.9)
NY Jets - #30 (17.3) - Pats held them to 17 (-0.3)
LA Rams - #32 (14.0) - Pats held them to 10 (-4.0)
Baltimore - #19 (21.9) - Pats held them to 23 (+1.1)
Denver - #21 (20.4) - Pats held them to 3 (-17.4)

So of their 14 games, the Pats' defense has held their opponents to fewer points than their season average in 11 of them. That's pretty impressive. Of course the Baltimore game would have made it 12, but for the fumbled punt that gave the Ravens the ball at the 1 yard line. Even holding them to a field goal there would have put Baltimore under their season average. So the Patriots have held their opponents to an average of 4.1 points below their season average (which, of course, includes these games against the Patriots).

**Note: They were without Roethlisberger for this game. Over the past 2 years, Roethlisberger has missed 5 games, and in those games the Steelers have scored 20, 24, 25, 13, and 16 points, for an average of 20.2 points per game. So NE held Pittsburgh to fewer points than they normally score without Roethlisberger anyway.

Now let's compare that to the #2 ranked scoring defense, Seattle. Here's the same exercise with their schedule:

Miami - #17 (22.5) - Sea held them to 10 (-12.5)
LA Rams - #32 (14.0) - Sea held them to 9 (-5.0)
San Francisco - #25 (18.9) - Sea held them to 18 (-0.9)
NY Jets - #30 (17.3) - Sea held them to 17 (-0.3)
Atlanta - #1 (33.5) - Sea held them to 24 (-9.5)
Arizona - #12 (24.3) - Sea held them to 6 (-18.3)
New Orleans - #2 (29.0) - Sea held them to 25 (-4.0)
Buffalo - #9 (25.6) - Sea held them to 25 (-0.6)
New England - #6 (26.1) - Sea held them to 24 (-2.1)
Philadelphia - #16 (22.6) - Sea held them to 15 (-7.6)
Tampa Bay - #18 (22.4) - Sea held them to 14 (-8.4)
Carolina - #14 (23.9) - Sea held them to 7 (-16.9)
Green Bay - #7 (25.9) - Sea held them to 38 (+13.9)
LA Rams - #32 (14.0) - Sea held them to 3 (-11.0)

Of their 14 games, they held their opponents to fewer points than their season average in 13 of them - 5.9 points per game on average.


Now, how are they doing it? The biggest factor for the Patriots is that they force their opposition to start drives with the worst average field position in the NFL. Coming into week 15, their opponents were starting drives at the 24.76 yard line, #1 in the league. They are doing this by having the strongest kickoff coverage unit in the NFL, and by having the 2nd fewest turnovers in the league, which really impacts field position. Moreover, the Patriots' offense consistently moves the ball, so when they punt, they tend to put the ball deep into the opponents' territory.

Seattle, the league's #2 scoring defense, ranks 25th in the NFL in this metric, as their opponents start at the 28.77 yard line on average. That's a difference of about 0.3 expected points per possession, and over the course of a whole game (about 10-12 possessions per game), that's between 3 and 4 expected points a game. So Seattle's defense is playing with about a field goal per game handicap compared with the Patriots'. And yet they are holding their opponents to 1.8 fewer points than their season average than the Patriots are. That indicates that Seattle's defense - when quality of opponent is taken into context - is about 5 points per game better than New England's.

But that doesn't mean that the Patriots' defense isn't elite. It's one thing to have a good scoring defense (which, obviously, they do). It's another thing to consistently hold your opponents under their season average. And again, if you take that muffed punt by Baltimore into account, the Patriots have held 12 of 14 opponents below their season average. That's pretty impressive.

Love this kind of analysis. Great stuff.

And I get what people are saying about garbage time points. I conducted an analysis in 2011 that factored in garbage time points, and it made that unit out to be much better than they actually were. Sometimes focusing on that can skew an analysis and I'm not sure it's a useful exercise. Defining the parameters of garbage time for analytical purposes is a difficult task and very prone to injecting bias.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I know the Patriots haven't played a murderer's row of elite offenses. You can only play who is on your schedule. The Pats currently are the #1 scoring defense in the NFL, and you cannot get there without being at least pretty good. Are they elite? Let's take a closer look.

Here's their schedule, and their opponents' offensive scoring rank and points per game on average, and here's what the Pats have held them to. I am not factoring in things like the short fields (one of them a one-yard field) Pats' turnovers have forced the Pats' defense into. In the Ravens' game, obviously, the D was outstanding, yet they gave up 23 points, 14 of which were due to Patriots' turnovers that led to very short fields for Baltimore's offense. Oh well, such is life.

Arizona - #12 (24.3) - Pats held them to 21 (-3.3)
Miami - #17 (22.5) - Pats held them to 24 (+1.5)
Houston - #28 (17.9) - Pats held them to 0 (-17.9)
Buffalo - #9 (25.6) - Pats held them to 16 (-9.6)
Cleveland - #31 (15.7) - Pats held them to 13 (-2.7)
Cincinnati - #23 (20.6) - Pats held them to 17 (-3.6)
Pittsburgh - #11 (24.4) - Pats held them to 16 (-8.4) **
Buffalo - #9 (25.6) - Pats held them to 25 (-0.6)
Seattle - #22 (21.3) - Pats held them to 31 (+9.7)
San Francisco - #25 (18.9) - Pats held them to 17 (-1.9)
NY Jets - #30 (17.3) - Pats held them to 17 (-0.3)
LA Rams - #32 (14.0) - Pats held them to 10 (-4.0)
Baltimore - #19 (21.9) - Pats held them to 23 (+1.1)
Denver - #21 (20.4) - Pats held them to 3 (-17.4)

So of their 14 games, the Pats' defense has held their opponents to fewer points than their season average in 11 of them. That's pretty impressive. Of course the Baltimore game would have made it 12, but for the fumbled punt that gave the Ravens the ball at the 1 yard line. Even holding them to a field goal there would have put Baltimore under their season average. So the Patriots have held their opponents to an average of 4.1 points below their season average (which, of course, includes these games against the Patriots).

**Note: They were without Roethlisberger for this game. Over the past 2 years, Roethlisberger has missed 5 games, and in those games the Steelers have scored 20, 24, 25, 13, and 16 points, for an average of 20.2 points per game. So NE held Pittsburgh to fewer points than they normally score without Roethlisberger anyway.

Now let's compare that to the #2 ranked scoring defense, Seattle. Here's the same exercise with their schedule:

Miami - #17 (22.5) - Sea held them to 10 (-12.5)
LA Rams - #32 (14.0) - Sea held them to 9 (-5.0)
San Francisco - #25 (18.9) - Sea held them to 18 (-0.9)
NY Jets - #30 (17.3) - Sea held them to 17 (-0.3)
Atlanta - #1 (33.5) - Sea held them to 24 (-9.5)
Arizona - #12 (24.3) - Sea held them to 6 (-18.3)
New Orleans - #2 (29.0) - Sea held them to 25 (-4.0)
Buffalo - #9 (25.6) - Sea held them to 25 (-0.6)
New England - #6 (26.1) - Sea held them to 24 (-2.1)
Philadelphia - #16 (22.6) - Sea held them to 15 (-7.6)
Tampa Bay - #18 (22.4) - Sea held them to 14 (-8.4)
Carolina - #14 (23.9) - Sea held them to 7 (-16.9)
Green Bay - #7 (25.9) - Sea held them to 38 (+13.9)
LA Rams - #32 (14.0) - Sea held them to 3 (-11.0)

Of their 14 games, they held their opponents to fewer points than their season average in 13 of them - 5.9 points per game on average.


Now, how are they doing it? The biggest factor for the Patriots is that they force their opposition to start drives with the worst average field position in the NFL. Coming into week 15, their opponents were starting drives at the 24.76 yard line, #1 in the league. They are doing this by having the strongest kickoff coverage unit in the NFL, and by having the 2nd fewest turnovers in the league, which really impacts field position. Moreover, the Patriots' offense consistently moves the ball, so when they punt, they tend to put the ball deep into the opponents' territory.

Seattle, the league's #2 scoring defense, ranks 25th in the NFL in this metric, as their opponents start at the 28.77 yard line on average. That's a difference of about 0.3 expected points per possession, and over the course of a whole game (about 10-12 possessions per game), that's between 3 and 4 expected points a game. So Seattle's defense is playing with about a field goal per game handicap compared with the Patriots'. And yet they are holding their opponents to 1.8 fewer points than their season average than the Patriots are. That indicates that Seattle's defense - when quality of opponent is taken into context - is about 5 points per game better than New England's.

But that doesn't mean that the Patriots' defense isn't elite. It's one thing to have a good scoring defense (which, obviously, they do). It's another thing to consistently hold your opponents under their season average. And again, if you take that muffed punt by Baltimore into account, the Patriots have held 12 of 14 opponents below their season average. That's pretty impressive.

Great research and analysis.

Further confirms that the 2016 NEP have a pretty damn good defense

 

[yukon cornelius]

i'd like to see the offensive numbers MINUS the game they played vs the pats

i.e. what is their scoring average vs the rest of the league, and then what did they score vs the pats (or seattle)

 

[BelizePats]

This is a really interesting piece of work. Thank you for taking the time to do it and post it.

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

So, basically, their D might be "better" than ours, but we are a better team as our special team actually contribuate to us allowing less points.

And our offense is ranked 6th, where Seattle's offense is ranked 22nd.

As far as team football is concerned, the Patriots would be the better team. No indication of special teams, but I'm sure the Patriots are ranked very highly despite the 2 blunders vs Baltimore.

 

[Ring 6]

I know the Patriots haven't played a murderer's row of elite offenses. You can only play who is on your schedule. The Pats currently are the #1 scoring defense in the NFL, and you cannot get there without being at least pretty good. Are they elite? Let's take a closer look.

Here's their schedule, and their opponents' offensive scoring rank and points per game on average, and here's what the Pats have held them to. I am not factoring in things like the short fields (one of them a one-yard field) Pats' turnovers have forced the Pats' defense into. In the Ravens' game, obviously, the D was outstanding, yet they gave up 23 points, 14 of which were due to Patriots' turnovers that led to very short fields for Baltimore's offense. Oh well, such is life.

Arizona - #12 (24.3) - Pats held them to 21 (-3.3)
Miami - #17 (22.5) - Pats held them to 24 (+1.5)
Houston - #28 (17.9) - Pats held them to 0 (-17.9)
Buffalo - #9 (25.6) - Pats held them to 16 (-9.6)
Cleveland - #31 (15.7) - Pats held them to 13 (-2.7)
Cincinnati - #23 (20.6) - Pats held them to 17 (-3.6)
Pittsburgh - #11 (24.4) - Pats held them to 16 (-8.4) **
Buffalo - #9 (25.6) - Pats held them to 25 (-0.6)
Seattle - #22 (21.3) - Pats held them to 31 (+9.7)
San Francisco - #25 (18.9) - Pats held them to 17 (-1.9)
NY Jets - #30 (17.3) - Pats held them to 17 (-0.3)
LA Rams - #32 (14.0) - Pats held them to 10 (-4.0)
Baltimore - #19 (21.9) - Pats held them to 23 (+1.1)
Denver - #21 (20.4) - Pats held them to 3 (-17.4)

So of their 14 games, the Pats' defense has held their opponents to fewer points than their season average in 11 of them. That's pretty impressive. Of course the Baltimore game would have made it 12, but for the fumbled punt that gave the Ravens the ball at the 1 yard line. Even holding them to a field goal there would have put Baltimore under their season average. So the Patriots have held their opponents to an average of 4.1 points below their season average (which, of course, includes these games against the Patriots).

**Note: They were without Roethlisberger for this game. Over the past 2 years, Roethlisberger has missed 5 games, and in those games the Steelers have scored 20, 24, 25, 13, and 16 points, for an average of 20.2 points per game. So NE held Pittsburgh to fewer points than they normally score without Roethlisberger anyway.

Now let's compare that to the #2 ranked scoring defense, Seattle. Here's the same exercise with their schedule:

Miami - #17 (22.5) - Sea held them to 10 (-12.5)
LA Rams - #32 (14.0) - Sea held them to 9 (-5.0)
San Francisco - #25 (18.9) - Sea held them to 18 (-0.9)
NY Jets - #30 (17.3) - Sea held them to 17 (-0.3)
Atlanta - #1 (33.5) - Sea held them to 24 (-9.5)
Arizona - #12 (24.3) - Sea held them to 6 (-18.3)
New Orleans - #2 (29.0) - Sea held them to 25 (-4.0)
Buffalo - #9 (25.6) - Sea held them to 25 (-0.6)
New England - #6 (26.1) - Sea held them to 24 (-2.1)
Philadelphia - #16 (22.6) - Sea held them to 15 (-7.6)
Tampa Bay - #18 (22.4) - Sea held them to 14 (-8.4)
Carolina - #14 (23.9) - Sea held them to 7 (-16.9)
Green Bay - #7 (25.9) - Sea held them to 38 (+13.9)
LA Rams - #32 (14.0) - Sea held them to 3 (-11.0)

Of their 14 games, they held their opponents to fewer points than their season average in 13 of them - 5.9 points per game on average.


Now, how are they doing it? The biggest factor for the Patriots is that they force their opposition to start drives with the worst average field position in the NFL. Coming into week 15, their opponents were starting drives at the 24.76 yard line, #1 in the league. They are doing this by having the strongest kickoff coverage unit in the NFL, and by having the 2nd fewest turnovers in the league, which really impacts field position. Moreover, the Patriots' offense consistently moves the ball, so when they punt, they tend to put the ball deep into the opponents' territory.

Seattle, the league's #2 scoring defense, ranks 25th in the NFL in this metric, as their opponents start at the 28.77 yard line on average. That's a difference of about 0.3 expected points per possession, and over the course of a whole game (about 10-12 possessions per game), that's between 3 and 4 expected points a game. So Seattle's defense is playing with about a field goal per game handicap compared with the Patriots'. And yet they are holding their opponents to 1.8 fewer points than their season average than the Patriots are. That indicates that Seattle's defense - when quality of opponent is taken into context - is about 5 points per game better than New England's.

But that doesn't mean that the Patriots' defense isn't elite. It's one thing to have a good scoring defense (which, obviously, they do). It's another thing to consistently hold your opponents under their season average. And again, if you take that muffed punt by Baltimore into account, the Patriots have held 12 of 14 opponents below their season average. That's pretty impressive.

Good work, but way to much certainty about variables. You can't assign a number of points to field position, because there is just no way to know. (No I don't buy the argument that an individual defense is expected to give up the number of points a statistical break down of all defenses say they give up from certain field position, because defenses are different) Also every drive didn't start at that yard line, so it is not a true statistical comparison.

Additionally, the field position you start at is also attributable to the defense. For example, the Patriots are #4 in offensive average drive start (Seattle 14) so the defense gives the ball back in better shape, and therefore would get it back in better shape, all things equal.

I also do not think the competition is as big a factor either, and when you consider the +/- each team had one bad game. The Patriots only other 2 case of allowing more than the average were the st debacle vs Bmore, and the prevent defense vs Miami.
Adjusting for schedule is always tricky because of matchups, timing, injuries, etc.

At this point now, the Patriots also have 1 more takeaway than Seattle.
Personally, although it is hard to quantify, I think the real factor of who is better or best revolves around when you allow the points. We are talking about 233 and 235 points allowed over the course of 14 games.
Is it better to allow 7 in 7 games and 25 in 7 others or 16 in all 14? Are the scores you allow game deciding, or after you have a lead?
Seattle has 4 losses and a tie. The Patriots have 2 losses. New England allowing 25 including 8 garbage time in a game they easily won vs Buffalo is very different than Seattle allowing 25 in a game they lost to NO. All these things are factors, but to me, what you contribute TO WINNING is what matters. Total stats are a good starting point, but stats accumulated in a loss don't do much for you.

 

[BobDigital]

Cold, Hard Football Facts.com: The Truth Hurts

This site does the same thing but does not go game by game and just overall. BTW expect the Pats to jump up the rankings at least 1 spot.

Going by these rankings the Pats have the 7th or so best D in the NFL. However over the past 5 games I would say they are really playing well and right now I would say they are top 3.... top 4.

Denver, Seahawks and maybe Giants are the only Ds I put above them.

KC just can't seem to stop the run right now
Vikings seem to be trending down the last 6 games and run D is so-so
Baltimore when asked to stop the pass (particularly good QBs can't... 1-3 vs Brady, Eli, Carr, Roeth and the win against Pitt was clearly vs a hobbled Ben)
Dallas has a good D but they can't stop the pass really. They almost always win TOS which has made it look better than it is. They are among the worst in defensive passer rating and pass yards allowed.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

Thanks for putting that together, @ivanvamp! Very useful context. It would be interesting to see that same exercise repeated for all of the top 5 or 10 points-allowed defenses. (In your copious free time )

 

[ivanvamp]

Love this kind of analysis. Great stuff.

And I get what people are saying about garbage time points. I conducted an analysis in 2011 that factored in garbage time points, and it made that unit out to be much better than they actually were. Sometimes focusing on that can skew an analysis and I'm not sure it's a useful exercise. Defining the parameters of garbage time for analytical purposes is a difficult task and very prone to injecting bias.

Thanks.

To your point about garbage time... I agree. And I'd have to do it for every team, really, in order to get a sense of how it compares. For example, say you're a bad team and you give up 24 points in the first half and are down 24-3. Your offense is terrible, so effectively, the game is completely out of reach. Is the entire second half "garbage time", even if you're losing? Or is "garbage time" only something that winning teams get?

Moreover, I'd have to factor in garbage time points for each team's *offense*, because how many "garbage time" points do, say, the Jets score? I have no idea. It's way too big an exercise for me at this point.

 

[hambone1818]

Great analysis, it kinda builds on the idea that I posted in another thread: you have to take opponent offenses into account to really start forming a picture of how good this defense is, and even then it has its flaws (as you said, a couple of botched plays against the Ravens led to 14 fairly easy points).

I think it's fair to say this Patriots team hasn't faced any great offenses, in fact almost their entire schedule has been full of middling to bad offenses. But the defense has still shown itself to be more stingy than the 'average' opponent, suggesting it's at least above average and perhaps--based on recent games--well above average.