I know the Patriots haven't played a murderer's row of elite offenses. You can only play who is on your schedule. The Pats currently are the #1 scoring defense in the NFL, and you cannot get there without being at least pretty good. Are they elite? Let's take a closer look.
Here's their schedule, and their opponents' offensive scoring rank and points per game on average, and here's what the Pats have held them to. I am not factoring in things like the short fields (one of them a one-yard field) Pats' turnovers have forced the Pats' defense into. In the Ravens' game, obviously, the D was outstanding, yet they gave up 23 points, 14 of which were due to Patriots' turnovers that led to very short fields for Baltimore's offense. Oh well, such is life.
Arizona - #12 (24.3) - Pats held them to 21 (-3.3)
Miami - #17 (22.5) - Pats held them to 24 (+1.5)
Houston - #28 (17.9) - Pats held them to 0 (-17.9)
Buffalo - #9 (25.6) - Pats held them to 16 (-9.6)
Cleveland - #31 (15.7) - Pats held them to 13 (-2.7)
Cincinnati - #23 (20.6) - Pats held them to 17 (-3.6)
Pittsburgh - #11 (24.4) - Pats held them to 16 (-8.4) **
Buffalo - #9 (25.6) - Pats held them to 25 (-0.6)
Seattle - #22 (21.3) - Pats held them to 31 (+9.7)
San Francisco - #25 (18.9) - Pats held them to 17 (-1.9)
NY Jets - #30 (17.3) - Pats held them to 17 (-0.3)
LA Rams - #32 (14.0) - Pats held them to 10 (-4.0)
Baltimore - #19 (21.9) - Pats held them to 23 (+1.1)
Denver - #21 (20.4) - Pats held them to 3 (-17.4)
So of their 14 games, the Pats' defense has held their opponents to fewer points than their season average in 11 of them. That's pretty impressive. Of course the Baltimore game would have made it 12, but for the fumbled punt that gave the Ravens the ball at the 1 yard line. Even holding them to a field goal there would have put Baltimore under their season average. So the Patriots have held their opponents to an average of 4.1 points below their season average (which, of course, includes these games against the Patriots).
**Note: They were without Roethlisberger for this game. Over the past 2 years, Roethlisberger has missed 5 games, and in those games the Steelers have scored 20, 24, 25, 13, and 16 points, for an average of 20.2 points per game. So NE held Pittsburgh to fewer points than they normally score without Roethlisberger anyway.
Now let's compare that to the #2 ranked scoring defense, Seattle. Here's the same exercise with their schedule:
Miami - #17 (22.5) - Sea held them to 10 (-12.5)
LA Rams - #32 (14.0) - Sea held them to 9 (-5.0)
San Francisco - #25 (18.9) - Sea held them to 18 (-0.9)
NY Jets - #30 (17.3) - Sea held them to 17 (-0.3)
Atlanta - #1 (33.5) - Sea held them to 24 (-9.5)
Arizona - #12 (24.3) - Sea held them to 6 (-18.3)
New Orleans - #2 (29.0) - Sea held them to 25 (-4.0)
Buffalo - #9 (25.6) - Sea held them to 25 (-0.6)
New England - #6 (26.1) - Sea held them to 24 (-2.1)
Philadelphia - #16 (22.6) - Sea held them to 15 (-7.6)
Tampa Bay - #18 (22.4) - Sea held them to 14 (-8.4)
Carolina - #14 (23.9) - Sea held them to 7 (-16.9)
Green Bay - #7 (25.9) - Sea held them to 38 (+13.9)
LA Rams - #32 (14.0) - Sea held them to 3 (-11.0)
Of their 14 games, they held their opponents to fewer points than their season average in 13 of them - 5.9 points per game on average.
Now, how are they doing it? The biggest factor for the Patriots is that they force their opposition to start drives with the worst average field position in the NFL. Coming into week 15, their opponents were starting drives at the 24.76 yard line, #1 in the league. They are doing this by having the strongest kickoff coverage unit in the NFL, and by having the 2nd fewest turnovers in the league, which really impacts field position. Moreover, the Patriots' offense consistently moves the ball, so when they punt, they tend to put the ball deep into the opponents' territory.
Seattle, the league's #2 scoring defense, ranks 25th in the NFL in this metric, as their opponents start at the 28.77 yard line on average. That's a difference of about 0.3 expected points per possession, and over the course of a whole game (about 10-12 possessions per game), that's between 3 and 4 expected points a game. So Seattle's defense is playing with about a field goal per game handicap compared with the Patriots'. And yet they are holding their opponents to 1.8 fewer points than their season average than the Patriots are. That indicates that Seattle's defense - when quality of opponent is taken into context - is about 5 points per game better than New England's.
But that doesn't mean that the Patriots' defense isn't elite. It's one thing to have a good scoring defense (which, obviously, they do). It's another thing to consistently hold your opponents under their season average. And again, if you take that muffed punt by Baltimore into account, the Patriots have held 12 of 14 opponents below their season average. That's pretty impressive.
Here's their schedule, and their opponents' offensive scoring rank and points per game on average, and here's what the Pats have held them to. I am not factoring in things like the short fields (one of them a one-yard field) Pats' turnovers have forced the Pats' defense into. In the Ravens' game, obviously, the D was outstanding, yet they gave up 23 points, 14 of which were due to Patriots' turnovers that led to very short fields for Baltimore's offense. Oh well, such is life.
Arizona - #12 (24.3) - Pats held them to 21 (-3.3)
Miami - #17 (22.5) - Pats held them to 24 (+1.5)
Houston - #28 (17.9) - Pats held them to 0 (-17.9)
Buffalo - #9 (25.6) - Pats held them to 16 (-9.6)
Cleveland - #31 (15.7) - Pats held them to 13 (-2.7)
Cincinnati - #23 (20.6) - Pats held them to 17 (-3.6)
Pittsburgh - #11 (24.4) - Pats held them to 16 (-8.4) **
Buffalo - #9 (25.6) - Pats held them to 25 (-0.6)
Seattle - #22 (21.3) - Pats held them to 31 (+9.7)
San Francisco - #25 (18.9) - Pats held them to 17 (-1.9)
NY Jets - #30 (17.3) - Pats held them to 17 (-0.3)
LA Rams - #32 (14.0) - Pats held them to 10 (-4.0)
Baltimore - #19 (21.9) - Pats held them to 23 (+1.1)
Denver - #21 (20.4) - Pats held them to 3 (-17.4)
So of their 14 games, the Pats' defense has held their opponents to fewer points than their season average in 11 of them. That's pretty impressive. Of course the Baltimore game would have made it 12, but for the fumbled punt that gave the Ravens the ball at the 1 yard line. Even holding them to a field goal there would have put Baltimore under their season average. So the Patriots have held their opponents to an average of 4.1 points below their season average (which, of course, includes these games against the Patriots).
**Note: They were without Roethlisberger for this game. Over the past 2 years, Roethlisberger has missed 5 games, and in those games the Steelers have scored 20, 24, 25, 13, and 16 points, for an average of 20.2 points per game. So NE held Pittsburgh to fewer points than they normally score without Roethlisberger anyway.
Now let's compare that to the #2 ranked scoring defense, Seattle. Here's the same exercise with their schedule:
Miami - #17 (22.5) - Sea held them to 10 (-12.5)
LA Rams - #32 (14.0) - Sea held them to 9 (-5.0)
San Francisco - #25 (18.9) - Sea held them to 18 (-0.9)
NY Jets - #30 (17.3) - Sea held them to 17 (-0.3)
Atlanta - #1 (33.5) - Sea held them to 24 (-9.5)
Arizona - #12 (24.3) - Sea held them to 6 (-18.3)
New Orleans - #2 (29.0) - Sea held them to 25 (-4.0)
Buffalo - #9 (25.6) - Sea held them to 25 (-0.6)
New England - #6 (26.1) - Sea held them to 24 (-2.1)
Philadelphia - #16 (22.6) - Sea held them to 15 (-7.6)
Tampa Bay - #18 (22.4) - Sea held them to 14 (-8.4)
Carolina - #14 (23.9) - Sea held them to 7 (-16.9)
Green Bay - #7 (25.9) - Sea held them to 38 (+13.9)
LA Rams - #32 (14.0) - Sea held them to 3 (-11.0)
Of their 14 games, they held their opponents to fewer points than their season average in 13 of them - 5.9 points per game on average.
Now, how are they doing it? The biggest factor for the Patriots is that they force their opposition to start drives with the worst average field position in the NFL. Coming into week 15, their opponents were starting drives at the 24.76 yard line, #1 in the league. They are doing this by having the strongest kickoff coverage unit in the NFL, and by having the 2nd fewest turnovers in the league, which really impacts field position. Moreover, the Patriots' offense consistently moves the ball, so when they punt, they tend to put the ball deep into the opponents' territory.
Seattle, the league's #2 scoring defense, ranks 25th in the NFL in this metric, as their opponents start at the 28.77 yard line on average. That's a difference of about 0.3 expected points per possession, and over the course of a whole game (about 10-12 possessions per game), that's between 3 and 4 expected points a game. So Seattle's defense is playing with about a field goal per game handicap compared with the Patriots'. And yet they are holding their opponents to 1.8 fewer points than their season average than the Patriots are. That indicates that Seattle's defense - when quality of opponent is taken into context - is about 5 points per game better than New England's.
But that doesn't mean that the Patriots' defense isn't elite. It's one thing to have a good scoring defense (which, obviously, they do). It's another thing to consistently hold your opponents under their season average. And again, if you take that muffed punt by Baltimore into account, the Patriots have held 12 of 14 opponents below their season average. That's pretty impressive.