4 draft picks in the first 2 Rounds - ammunition to grab an RFA?

[DonBlackmon55]

Yup - and Belichick knows better than anyone his track record in the 2nd round.

Now you look at guys he's traded for with a 2nd round pick - Corey Dillon, Wes Welker etc... and his moves in the 2nd round begin to look a bit more impressive.

I'm not knocking Belichick's ability to draft. He's hit on more than his fair share of guys beyond the 2nd round. But it does illustrate that even for a great football mind, college talent and NFL talent are two very different things and is very difficult to judge.

BB picking in Rd 2 has been a pathetic exercise with busts littered everywhere....only saving grace - Matt Light and Deion Branch. 2009 Rd 2 Class could be special..Volmer and Butler show hope. Don't know what we have in Chung and Brace

As for previous Rd 2 Busts.....
Adrian Klemm, Eugene Wilson, Bethel Johnson, Marquise Hill, Chad Jackson, Terrence Wheatley

 

[Deus Irae]

BB picking in Rd 2 has been a pathetic exercise with busts littered everywhere....only saving grace - Matt Light and Deion Branch. 2009 Rd 2 Class could be special..Volmer and Butler show hope. Don't know what we have in Chung and Brace

As for previous Rd 2 Busts.....
Adrian Klemm, Eugene Wilson, Bethel Johnson, Marquise Hill, Chad Jackson, Terrence Wheatley

You think Eugene Wilson was a bust?

Your draft analysis needs a lot of work.

 

[BradyBranch39]

Ok; just a comment on a specific RFA here... one who we don't need.

Any team looking to draft a QB in round 1 should just give Carolina the pick(s) for Matt Moore. They might even match the offer.

 

[mcmurtry86]

BB picking in Rd 2 has been a pathetic exercise with busts littered everywhere....only saving grace - Matt Light and Deion Branch. 2009 Rd 2 Class could be special..Volmer and Butler show hope. Don't know what we have in Chung and Brace

As for previous Rd 2 Busts.....
Adrian Klemm, Eugene Wilson, Bethel Johnson, Marquise Hill, Chad Jackson, Terrence Wheatley

He's had his misses, but calling Wilson a bust is dumb. Wilson was very solid for a few years before injuries took their toll, and he was integral to the Super Bowl win and solidifying the position after Milloy was cut (and Antwan Harris failed miserably opening day against Buffalo). Not to mention the fact that he started 55 games over 5 seasons for the team. That's FAR better than the average 2nd rounder.

One long-term quality LT (Light), a Super Bowl MVP (Branch), Vollmer who looks like a long term answer at LT, Butler who should be starting this upcoming season and Wilson who was decidedly above average for 3 or 4 years. I'd say there were 3 definite successes (Branch, Light, Wilson) and 2 most likely successes (Vollmer, Butler) and 4.5 flops (Klemm, Johnson, Hill, Jackson and most likely Wheatley)


Find me a GM who has significantly better success in the 2nd round over a 7-10 year span. I'm not saying BB is the best, or that he hasn't had his share of total flops (Chad Jackson especially) but 2nd round picks have a fairly low success rate (like any round).

Look at Pittsburgh, generally considered one of the best drafting teams:

2001 - Kendrell Bell
2002 - Antwaan Randle El
2003 - Alonzo Jackson
2004 - Ricardo Colclough
2005 - Bryant McFadden
2006 - no pick
2007 - LaMarr Woodley
2008 - Limas Sweed
2009 - No pick

So they got one superstar (Woodley), one good player no longer with the team (Randle El), 2 total flops (Jackson, Colclough), one solid but unspectacular player (McFadden), one soon to be bust (Sweed unless he breaks out) and Bell who was solid before injuries ruined him.

Let's look at Indianapolis, a team that builds through the draft:

2001 - Idrees Bashir
2002 - Larry Tripplett
2003 - Mike Doss
2004 - Bob Sanders
2005 - Kelvin Hayden
2006 - Tim Jennings
2007 - Tony Ugoh
2008 - Mike Pollak
2009 - Fili Moala

Bashir, Tripplett, Doss, Jennings were flops. Ugoh has struggled after a decent start to his career and Pollak lost his starting job halfway through the year. Who knows about Moala. Sanders is great on the rare occassion he is healthy, and Hayden is reliable but unspectacular. I don't think we can honestly say Indy has drafted better in the 2nd round.

Let's try Philadelphia:

2001 - Quinton Caver
2002 - Michael Lewis, Sheldon Brown
2003 - LJ Smith
2004 - No pick
2005 - Reggie Brown, Matt McCoy
2006 - Winston Justice
2007 - Kevin Kolb, Victor Abiamiri
2008 - Trevor Laws, DeSean Jackson
2009 - LeSean McCoy

Caver, Matt McCoy and Laws were flops. Reggie Brown had 3 decent but unspectacular years and then fell apart. Abiamiri is a backup. LJ Smith has had a nice career. Justice didn't get any playing time until his 4th year (last season). Who knows about Kolb. Lewis, Sheldon Brown and Jackson are obvious successes and Lesean McCoy looks like one too. So Philly has had a better draft record in the 2nd round, but by a significant amount? I wouldn't say so.

I'm sure if you went team by team through the last decade, you'd find that most teams have no better than a 40% success rate (a success as a guy who is a quality starter for a few seasons or a high quality part-time guy). I would guess that the Pats haven't been one of the top 5-7 2nd round drafting teams in that period but they're still probably in the top half of the league - despite having a number of busts.

Again, all of this is assuming that Vollmer and Butler continue to look as good as they did last year. If those guys fall apart, then I'll probably be joining the "BB sucks at 2nd round drafting!" parade, but they both look like guys who will be long-term starters for the team.

 

[bucky]

Huh? It's the same thing as signing a top 5 draft pick. Are you saying you wouldn't do that either?

BB doesn't like top 5 picks. He trades out of them. Right now we have the #22 pick. So the player would have to be significantly better than someone we could pick up at 22. Would Demarcus Ware be that player? Sure. But he's not on that list. I would not do that for Elvis Dumervil or anybody else on that list off the top of my head. Plus, a guy like Dumervil will probably be tendered at the highest level, so he'll cost a 1 and a 3 (which we don't have).

 

[Deus Irae]

BB doesn't like top 5 picks. He trades out of them. Right now we have the #22 pick. So the player would have to be significantly better than someone we could pick up at 22. Would Demarcus Ware be that player? Sure. But he's not on that list. I would not do that for Elvis Dumervil or anybody else on that list off the top of my head. Plus, a guy like Dumervil will probably be tendered at the highest level, so he'll cost a 1 and a 3 (which we don't have).

Could you please list all the times Belichick has traded out of a top 5 pick?

 

[Joker]

yeah..Ill do that for you...there's ..uh..and..uh...there's....hmmm...top FIVE pick you say????

 

[BillBelichickFan79]

I think an interesting name is Ray Edwards the DE from Minnesota. According to ProFootballFocus, he was 11th overall DE and 19th overall against the run. I've seen a few Vikings games this season and he's looked stout vs the run and has gotten after the QB well.

I know we all talk about Peppers but what about Edwards? He's younger and cheaper. I don't know what he will be tendered at, but could he be a potential target? Could he play OLB in a 3-4 scheme? He fits the BB mold of a big guy at 6'5 270 and he can stop the run pretty as well as get after the QB. The only concern would be his ability to drop into coverage. If he could play 3-4 OLB, he'd be a nice asset to have b/c of his versatility and ability to play 4-3 DE and 3-4 OLB.

Can't really see Minnesota letting him get away, but it's an interesting thought.

 

[patriotscpfc]

Might as well ask this question in this thread rather than any other.

I can't remember where I read it, but one of the NFL analysts said that you can only tender 1 player above the 1st round level? Is this true as we may be able to get a steal from the Chargers with VJax, Floyd, Merriman and McNeill all needing to be tendered. I'd love to get Floyd for a 2nd rounder.

 

[bucky]

Could you please list all the times Belichick has traded out of a top 5 pick?

Well he's never had a top 5 pick since he's been here. He did trade out of #7 in 2008. But you're just being picky with the wording here. The point is that he's stated on a number of occasions that top 5 picks, even top 10 picks, are economically poor value. He commented specifically on how ridiculous (my word, not his) it was that Jake Long became the highest paid OL in the NFL before he ever played a down.

 

[emoney_33]

Well he's never had a top 5 pick since he's been here. He did trade out of #7 in 2008. But you're just being picky with the wording here. The point is that he's stated on a number of occasions that top 5 picks, even top 10 picks, are economically poor value. He commented specifically on how ridiculous (my word, not his) it was that Jake Long became the highest paid OL in the NFL before he ever played a down.

Jerod Mayo says "wasssssap!"

In general high picks aren't great value, but that doesn't mean they can never be.

 

[Deus Irae]

Well he's never had a top 5 pick since he's been here. He did trade out of #7 in 2008. But you're just being picky with the wording here. The point is that he's stated on a number of occasions that top 5 picks, even top 10 picks, are economically poor value. He commented specifically on how ridiculous (my word, not his) it was that Jake Long became the highest paid OL in the NFL before he ever played a down.

I'm not being picky at all. You made an assertion and I asked you to back it up.

As far as top 10 picks go, Richard Seymour says "hi", and Mayo was a minor trade down that was still in the top 10, so he says "hello".

 

[bucky]

I'm not being picky at all. You made an assertion and I asked you to back it up.

As far as top 10 picks go, Richard Seymour says "hi", and Mayo was a minor trade down that was still in the top 10, so he says "hello".

Great examples.

Seymour signed a 6 year $14.3 mil contract. Compare that to the contract Andre Smith signed - 6 years at $42 mil, and you can see the economics of the draft have changed significantly since 2001. Yes, the salary cap has almost doubled since 2001. But the salary for the #6 slot has tripled!

The Mayo pick actually supports my statement. The Pats did trade down from 7 to 10. The #7 pick, Sedrick Ellis signed for 5 years at $32 mil, while Mayo got $19 mil for 5 years. So they saved $13 mil by trading down 3 spots.

So I would say you ARE being picky here. I don't know exactly where the cutoff is, whether it's pick # 8, 9, 10, whatever it is. But it's a well known fact that the real high picks carry real big contracts and many teams, including the Patriots, try to avoid them unless they feel a real special player is available.

 

[Deus Irae]

Great examples.

Seymour signed a 6 year $14.3 mil contract. Compare that to the contract Andre Smith signed - 6 years at $42 mil, and you can see the economics of the draft have changed significantly since 2001. Yes, the salary cap has almost doubled since 2001. But the salary for the #6 slot has tripled!

The Mayo pick actually supports my statement. The Pats did trade down from 7 to 10. The #7 pick, Sedrick Ellis signed for 5 years at $32 mil, while Mayo got $19 mil for 5 years. So they saved $13 mil by trading down 3 spots.

So I would say you ARE being picky here. I don't know exactly where the cutoff is, whether it's pick # 8, 9, 10, whatever it is. But it's a well known fact that the real high picks carry real big contracts and many teams, including the Patriots, try to avoid them unless they feel a real special player is available.

The Mayo pick only supports your argument if you can't count to 10.

Again, I'm not being picky at all. You made an assertion. You were wrong.

 

[bucky]

The Mayo pick only supports your argument if you can't count to 10.

Again, I'm not being picky at all. You made an assertion. You were wrong.

As usual, you are being asinine. You are arguing semantics simply for the purpose of arguing. You have absolutely no point to make of your own. Bottom line - it is well document that the Patriots, like many other teams, do not consider the top few picks of the draft to be highly desirable for economic reasons. Of course there is no definitive plateau for this because the amount of $ they are willing to pay depends on the quality of the available player.