BobDigital
Pro Bowl Player
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Already made my predictions/break down for the Saturday games here.
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So I'll do Sunday in this more relevant thread and start with my opinion on Bucs @ Lions -6.5. Short answer.. Lions win a close one. But let me break down how and why.
This may well be the game of the week. First lets talk Lions who just about everyone is cheering for. First lets talk about the Lions D which everyone says is bad, well they aren't exactly wrong. It certainly isn't good. But it isn't a dumpster fire either. They are 23rd best in PPGs at 23.2 PPG. But we need to keep in mind this is the new NFL were Ds can be strange ranking wise. Basically you have 8/9 good Ds, 5 or so horrible Ds then you have half of them sitting between 20.6PPG-23.6PPG Basically a FG difference between the 10th best and 25th best in todays NFL. So while I'd still rather have that 10th ranked D, it isn't light years better than a D worse than the Lions. When you think about it it seems odd about half the teams hover within 3 points of each other with the top D giving up 16.5 and the worst 30.5. But i digress.
The point is you can't simply look at rank alone. Yes the lions seemed to be badly ranked, but basically their D is just on the lower end of middling. And It's worst days may be behind it. It got beaten badly by the Ravens/Chargers around their bye, but since that IMO they've only had 1 truly bad game against the Saints. They gave up 29 to GB but 6 were on a fumble recovery. 28 and 26 to the bears but in one game they were down late so gave the bears 2 very short fields on downs were they score an extra 9 and in the other game the bears also had short fields a few times. They also held down the Cowboys and Rams in that same stretch to 23 and 20. This isn't to argue their D is good, but let's not confuse it with a dumpster fire. It can and has had stretches where it gets run over and vs a truly elite offense I think the issue can be forced if they play well, but the Bucs don't have that kind of offense with Mayfield at the helm. He's playing well enough but let's not oversell him. The point is this Lions D will be competitive with the Bucs offense assuming Mayfeild doesn't turn in an one of those Eli/Flacco type playoff runs.
On the offensive side for the Lions they have a really good young D with a lot of budding stars. Gibbs. St. Brown and LaPorta with Montgomery and Reynolds rounding them out make for a potent for of high end players and depth that can attack yours. And the way some people talk about Goff you'd be surprised to learn he's made 3 probowls and has a winning record (not even counting this 12-5 year). This isn't to say he's a star player, but is he isn't an untested scrub. Granted his playoff history isn't too good, but at least you know typically you're typically likely to get a decent performance. And with that case he can score. Will they score on this Bucs D? Some but how much?
As for the Bucs, not much has changed for them since Brady left, Their run D is still elite (as are the Lions surprisingly). And their D is one of the few legit good ones in this league, they aren't great but good. They have a very talented front 7 with good LBs one of the best DTs in Vea and they can generate from the edge with a lof of options (most notably Shaq and rookie Yaya. But they get pressure everywhere. Their back end is solid too. Overall they have nice balance everywhere, but the back end is weaker than the front. This is a good D with legit players on it though. But the way to beat them is in the air, which the lions can do.
As far as ground game for the Bucs, they are horrible. One of the worst in the NFL. They have no one who can run. And with the Lions stout run D this will be utterly shut down, putting all the pressure on Mayfield, which i suppose is where it has been all year.
This Bucs team has been fairly consistent all year long. They've hold the good offenses from absolutely blowing up, but not from putting 24 or more on them much more often than not. The Lions the time they played them got 20 and held them to 6 but that was a life time ago way early in the season.
I expect the Bucs to keep the Lions at or below 27 (probably below that mark), giving them a chance if Mayfield can get his weapons rolling vs an unimpressive but not windmill Lions D. I think he finds some success with the help from his stars, but not enough without support from the ground and the Lions knowing what is coming. Lions 23 Bucs 17.
NFL Playoffs 2023
There are some reports out there about the price of tix for the lions division championship game... tix are selling for about $700 each... Pricey...
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So I'll do Sunday in this more relevant thread and start with my opinion on Bucs @ Lions -6.5. Short answer.. Lions win a close one. But let me break down how and why.
This may well be the game of the week. First lets talk Lions who just about everyone is cheering for. First lets talk about the Lions D which everyone says is bad, well they aren't exactly wrong. It certainly isn't good. But it isn't a dumpster fire either. They are 23rd best in PPGs at 23.2 PPG. But we need to keep in mind this is the new NFL were Ds can be strange ranking wise. Basically you have 8/9 good Ds, 5 or so horrible Ds then you have half of them sitting between 20.6PPG-23.6PPG Basically a FG difference between the 10th best and 25th best in todays NFL. So while I'd still rather have that 10th ranked D, it isn't light years better than a D worse than the Lions. When you think about it it seems odd about half the teams hover within 3 points of each other with the top D giving up 16.5 and the worst 30.5. But i digress.
The point is you can't simply look at rank alone. Yes the lions seemed to be badly ranked, but basically their D is just on the lower end of middling. And It's worst days may be behind it. It got beaten badly by the Ravens/Chargers around their bye, but since that IMO they've only had 1 truly bad game against the Saints. They gave up 29 to GB but 6 were on a fumble recovery. 28 and 26 to the bears but in one game they were down late so gave the bears 2 very short fields on downs were they score an extra 9 and in the other game the bears also had short fields a few times. They also held down the Cowboys and Rams in that same stretch to 23 and 20. This isn't to argue their D is good, but let's not confuse it with a dumpster fire. It can and has had stretches where it gets run over and vs a truly elite offense I think the issue can be forced if they play well, but the Bucs don't have that kind of offense with Mayfield at the helm. He's playing well enough but let's not oversell him. The point is this Lions D will be competitive with the Bucs offense assuming Mayfeild doesn't turn in an one of those Eli/Flacco type playoff runs.
On the offensive side for the Lions they have a really good young D with a lot of budding stars. Gibbs. St. Brown and LaPorta with Montgomery and Reynolds rounding them out make for a potent for of high end players and depth that can attack yours. And the way some people talk about Goff you'd be surprised to learn he's made 3 probowls and has a winning record (not even counting this 12-5 year). This isn't to say he's a star player, but is he isn't an untested scrub. Granted his playoff history isn't too good, but at least you know typically you're typically likely to get a decent performance. And with that case he can score. Will they score on this Bucs D? Some but how much?
As for the Bucs, not much has changed for them since Brady left, Their run D is still elite (as are the Lions surprisingly). And their D is one of the few legit good ones in this league, they aren't great but good. They have a very talented front 7 with good LBs one of the best DTs in Vea and they can generate from the edge with a lof of options (most notably Shaq and rookie Yaya. But they get pressure everywhere. Their back end is solid too. Overall they have nice balance everywhere, but the back end is weaker than the front. This is a good D with legit players on it though. But the way to beat them is in the air, which the lions can do.
As far as ground game for the Bucs, they are horrible. One of the worst in the NFL. They have no one who can run. And with the Lions stout run D this will be utterly shut down, putting all the pressure on Mayfield, which i suppose is where it has been all year.
This Bucs team has been fairly consistent all year long. They've hold the good offenses from absolutely blowing up, but not from putting 24 or more on them much more often than not. The Lions the time they played them got 20 and held them to 6 but that was a life time ago way early in the season.
I expect the Bucs to keep the Lions at or below 27 (probably below that mark), giving them a chance if Mayfield can get his weapons rolling vs an unimpressive but not windmill Lions D. I think he finds some success with the help from his stars, but not enough without support from the ground and the Lions knowing what is coming. Lions 23 Bucs 17.
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