Re: Welker value
I'm curious about how the Pats- and this board- value Welker?
First, how much would we be willing to pay? I think $8M over 3 years would be on the high end given his age, though his numbers certainly justify more.
Second, how big a statistical drop off would there be between Welker starting in the slot and Edelman starting in the slot? Next year, say 1,200 yards vs. 900 yards, maybe? The following year, even less of a difference I suspect.
Third, if we're only paying one receiver $8 millions per year in free agency, should it be Welker or Brandon Lloyd? Would we rather have Welker and Branch/Edelman as our top 2 receivers, or Lloyd and Branch/Edelman?
Ideally, we find a way to sign both. However, I'm not sure that the difference between Welker and Edelman would be worth losing out on Lloyd.
I suspect many of you will strongly disagree.
Well, let's break it down Welker's five years with the Pats (he'll turn 31 on May 1st, BTW).
He's been top ten among ALL pass-catchers 4 years (29th in 2010, rehabbing from ACL surgery), and #2 overall twice, both times leading the league in receiving 1st downs. He's been #1 in YAC four years. His catch rate dropped below 71% only once (2010, 69%).
Welker's base salary in 2011 was $2.15M, total compensation $4.125M.
It's difficult to work out a performance/salary comparison, because none of the guys who are being paid more than Welker have produced as consistently. For instance, Welker has out-produced Roddy White during three of the last five years and virtually tied him in the fourth year, and yet White's 2011 base in $4M with total comp at $6.525M White's contract will pay him and average base of $5.4M and an average total comp of about $7.8M. And White is literally 6 months and one day younger than Welker.
So, I'm guessing a new 3-yr deal for Welker is going to have to be in the same range as White's, at least.
As to Edelman as a Welker replacement, no. After Edelman's 2009 (rookie) "season, I was thinking "maybe", and I do believe he'd perform a lot better than he has the past two seasons if he was getting all the first team reps in Welker's spot. But your projections for his production (900 yards) are optimistic. I'd guess more in the 600-700 yard range at best, about half Welker's average (excluding the "rehab year", when he produced "only" 850 yds).
BTW, I'm not sure why you'd be concerned about paying Welker $8M over 3 years "considering his age", but might be okay with paying that to Brandon Lloyd when Lloyd is only two months younger than Welker and not nearly as accomplished.