A look at the 2015 Patriots Draft Positioning

I'll attempt to take an amateur stab at the Patriots 2015 draft order now that week 8 is here and the trade deadline has come and gone.

Here is what I've gathered from various reports and information:

Our Draft Lineup:
1:#32 (ya, I know) assigned
2: Assigned
3: Assigned
3: Compensatory (Talib)
4: Assigned
4: From TB (Mankins)
6: From TB (Casillas)
6: Comp (I'll try to explain)
7: From Tenn (Ayers)

Assigned picks traded away:
5: TB (Casillas)
6: Tenn (Ayers)
7: STL (Salas)?

I would project the TB and Tenn picks to be top 3-8 in those rounds. Miguel projected us getting a 6th round Comp as well as the 3rd in an Aug. 26th tweet. I'm skeptical about that 6th. Revis was released and Talib signed with the Bronc-Ho's so I think a 3 is a lock. As far as another comp I think our major signings cancel out our losses. The super secretive Comp formula is a conundrum, but I've followed it for years and have a basic understanding. I think everyone was surprised last year when we we're awarded an unexpected 4th. AdamJT13 was someone who consistently got 24-26 out of the 32 awarded right for about a decade. My belief is human factor is a wrench in the formula.

In 2014 we lost, along with Talib, these players:
Spikes (BUF) 1 year 3 mil
Blount (PIT) 2 years 3.85 mil
Fletcher (TB) 1 year 1.2 mil

We signed these players:
Browner (SEA) 3 year 15.15 mil
Lafell (CAR) 3 year 9 mil
Chung (PHI) 1 year 1.1 mil

I know M. Mulligan signed with Chicago and was released after 2 games and W. Svitek signed with Cinncinatti but I don't think there price tag or playing time will factor in. I may be be missing something or someone that would factor in and any additional information would be welcome.

I am by no means an authority, the more knowledge offered would be welcome. If I made a mistake please point it out with respect. I'm just a curious fan who looks forward to the draft now that we've begun to reach a point to discuss it with reasonable facts. I look forward to the updates from you college ball junkies to let me know who the diamonds in the rough are!

The disconnect is that Chung was also released just like Revis so won't count in the formula.

So my starting point is a 3rd and a 6th, but as you say the formula is still a secret so I'm not banking on anything until it's announced. That 4th rounder last year was a pleasant surprise; who knows if there's an unexpected surprise waiting for us this year.....

OhExaulted1 said:

Here is what I've gathered from various reports and information:

Our Draft Lineup:
1:#32 (ya, I know) assigned
2: Assigned
3: Assigned
3: Compensatory (Talib)
4: Assigned
4: From TB (Mankins)
6: From TB (Casillas)
6: Comp (I'll try to explain)
7: From Tenn (Ayers)

Assigned picks traded away:
5: TB (Casillas)
6: Tenn (Ayers)
7: STL (Salas)?

Click to expand...

That's pretty much what I'm expecting. 3rd and 6th round comp picks are projections, but those are consistent with the best projections that I've seen to date. Our original 7th was indeed traded away for Salas. Note that the 4th that we are getting from TB should be much earlier than our own 4th by (by about 20 picks).

Realistically, we should have something roughly like:

1 (29-32 range)
2 (61-64 range)
3 (93-96 range)
3 (comp) (97-99 range)
4 (from TB) (100-105 range)
4 (129-132 range)
6 (from Tenn) (175-185 range)
6 (comp) (200-210 range)
7 (from TB) (210-215 range)

Hammer of Thor said:

The disconnect is that Chung was also released just like Revis so won't count in the formula.

So my starting point is a 3rd and a 6th, but as you say the formula is still a secret so I'm not banking on anything until it's announced. That 4th rounder last year was a pleasant surprise; who knows if there's an unexpected surprise waiting for us this year.....

Click to expand...

Good call. I knew that at the time but couldn't remember Miguels reasoning for the 6th. Thanks Hammah!

http://www.nj.com/eagles/index.ssf/...cy_2014_patrick_chung_released_by_eagles.html

mayoclinic said:

That's pretty much what I'm expecting. 3rd and 6th round comp picks are projections, but those are consistent with the best projections that I've seen to date. Our original 7th was indeed traded away for Salas. Note that the 4th that we are getting from TB should be much earlier than our own 4th by (by about 20 picks).

Realistically, we should have something roughly like:

1 (29-32 range)
2 (61-64 range)
3 (93-96 range)
3 (comp) (97-99 range)
4 (from TB) (100-105 range)
4 (129-132 range)
6 (from Tenn) (175-185 range)
6 (comp) (200-210 range)
7 (from TB) (210-215 range)

Click to expand...

Good stuff Mayo. I'm still projecting last pick in every round with assigned picks. Optimism abounds!

With Casillas and Ayers on board + Ebner slowly Progress into the LB/S roll i think the need for a LB in NeXT years draft is removed. Surpriced they didn't bring in a RB, but that have to be a need in 2015 then.

DE - DT - LG - RB

And by not going after Barron it slowed that BB wont use Capital on "run" Down people. So SS, ILB trumper and NT looks like history when it comes to draft. I doubt he feel the need for another safety as ppl do on this board.

Luxusdk said:

With Casillas and Ayers on board + Ebner slowly Progress into the LB/S roll i think the need for a LB in NeXT years draft is removed. Surpriced they didn't bring in a RB, but that have to be a need in 2015 then.

DE - DT - LG - RB

And by not going after Barron it slowed that BB wont use Capital on "run" Down people. So SS, ILB trumper and NT looks like history when it comes to draft. I doubt he feel the need for another safety as ppl do on this board.

Click to expand...

IF Ayers and Casillas work out and are re-signed (both are FAs in 2015, as is Pat Chung), then I agree. I'm hoping that would be the case, and neither should be a big-market item. I'm also still hoping for an Alan Branch signing, which would provide some run-stopping ability up front, and decrease the need for a DT in 2015.

BB has a lot of interesting "tweeners" and versatile guys who can play a lot of positions:

Jones - 4-3 DE, 3-4 OLB, 3-4 DE, 4-3 DT in sub packages
Easley - 4-3 3-Tech, 4-3 0 Tech, 3-4 DE, 4-3 DE
Ninkovich - DE/OLB, could probably play some MLB
Hightower - DE/OLB, MLB
Collins - DE/OLB, MLB, could probably play a LB/S role
Ayers - DE/OLB
Casillas - LB/S
Ebner - LB/S
Chung - LB/S
McCourty - S/CB
Ryan - CB/S

That's a lot of versatility.

Some defensive guys who provide some versatility which might be of interest to BB in 2015:

- Dante Fowler, Florida. Can probably play anywhere on the front 7 depending on the matchup.
- Bud Dupree, Kentucky. DE/OLB with freakish physical ability.
- Shane Ray, Missouri. DE/OLB with freakish physical ability.
- Shilique Calhoun, Michigan St. DE/OLB.
- Vic Beasley, Clemson. DE/OLB. Undersized, but very quick.
- Shawn Oakman, Baylor. 6'9" 285#. Can play 4-3 DE, 3-4DE, DT at times, or even stand up.
- Arik Armstead, Oregon. 6'7" 290#. Can play inside or out on the DL. Very athletic.
- Bernardrick McKinney, Mississippi St. Can play MLB, 4-3 OLB, 3-4 OLB, or as a sub rusher. Good coverage ability.
- Eric Flowers, Oklahoma. Undersized (6' 230#) in the Casillas mold. Devastating blitzer.
- Shaq Thompson, Oregon. Undersized but versatile LB/S who makes plays. Also plays RB.
- Cody Prewitt, Mississippi. Big safety with range and coverage ability.
- Jaquiski Tartt, Stamford. Big safety with range and coverage ability.

It will be very interesting to see how BB evolves this defense.

I am thinking we net two comp picks. A third and a seventh.

mayoclinic said:

That's a lot of versatility.

Some defensive guys who provide some versatility which might be of interest to BB in 2015:


- Eric Flowers, Oklahoma. Undersized (6' 230#) in the Casillas mold. Devastating blitzer.

It will be very interesting to see how BB evolves this defense.

Click to expand...

I take it you have merged Ereck Flowers and Eric Striker here

manxman2601 said:

I take it you have merged Ereck Flowers and Eric Striker here

Click to expand...

Hey, a Casillas-like LB and a road grading guard-tackle prospect rolled into one. What's not to like?

Oops.

mayoclinic said:

Hey, a Casillas-like LB and a road grading guard-tackle prospect rolled into one. What's not to like?

Oops.

Click to expand...

So long as it's not a linebacker that looks like a striker but plays like a flower.

manxman2601 said:

So long as it's not a linebacker that looks like a striker but plays like a flower.

Click to expand...

That would be Gary Guyton.

As of today, (12/16/2014), it looks like the Pats are going to have a grouping of three picks at the end of round 3/beginning of round 4.

Tampa right now is tied with 4 others for the worst record, the Jags and Titans play each other on Thursday so one of them will gain a win, I don't see TB winning anymore games, even though they end with two home games (GB and New Orleans) as GB obviously needs the game, and NO certainly will too. So my bet is they end up with the #1 pick and will be tied with Oakland at 2-14. Meaning that Tampa will have the first picks in rounds 1,3,5,7 and the second pick in rounds 2,4,6. So their fourth round pick will be (depending on how many 3rd round comp picks are awarded) @100.

So (as of today) the Pats would pick 30, 62, 94, 97 (Comp for Talib), 100, 130, 178, 220 (Tenn), 245, and maybe another comp @ 250.

So that is five picks in the top 100! Should be able to land some decent players. But that three pick window should offer some interesting trade bait, maybe a #2 next year for one of them.

Nice to have the chips fall the right way. Agreed that the three picks in 94 - ~100 stretch are the most likely to be used for trade bait (although the comp pick can't be traded).

I might have misread him, but I think I recall Miguel suggesting that the Pats won't receive the 6th round comp pick anymore - specifically because it was for Blount and the Pats wound up resigning him after he was cut. Doesn't seem to make logical sense that the Pats could be rewarded here - it's essentially double-dipping. On the other hand, the fact that they lost a comp pick by trading for Sopoaga last fall makes no logical sense, so who's to say that logic enters into this equation....

Three picks within a 5-10 pick range (late 3rd, 3rd comp, very early 4th) with one being untraceable gives BB tremendous flexibility to move up or back and find the values, or to take a calculated risk. For example, if he had been in that position last year he could have afforded to take a player like OG Brandon Thomas coming off an ACL injury, who could then be slotted in as starting LG a year out.

That 1st pick in the 4th rd alongside a possible 3rd rd comp is going to make for some juicy move up mocks. Don't think we can trade the comp but they still have their own 3rd.

Not saying it is going to happen but either way there should be come nice looking mocks later on down the road with move ups and downs as well as staying put.

FreeTedWilliams said:

As of today, (12/16/2014), it looks like the Pats are going to have a grouping of three picks at the end of round 3/beginning of round 4.

Tampa right now is tied with 4 others for the worst record, the Jags and Titans play each other on Thursday so one of them will gain a win, I don't see TB winning anymore games, even though they end with two home games (GB and New Orleans) as GB obviously needs the game, and NO certainly will too. So my bet is they end up with the #1 pick and will be tied with Oakland at 2-14. Meaning that Tampa will have the first picks in rounds 1,3,5,7 and the second pick in rounds 2,4,6. So their fourth round pick will be (depending on how many 3rd round comp picks are awarded) @100.

So (as of today) the Pats would pick 30, 62, 94, 97 (Comp for Talib), 100, 130, 178, 220 (Tenn), 245, and maybe another comp @ 250.

So that is five picks in the top 100! Should be able to land some decent players. But that three pick window should offer some interesting trade bait, maybe a #2 next year for one of them.

Click to expand...

5 in the top 100 is indeed a good thing! As Hammah stated Miguel seems to think we will get no late comp, and his reasoning was that we signed Blount back after his release in what he referenced to in an Adamjt13 blog. More or less it was sort of a reverse double jeapordy scenario.

Found it:http://www.patsfans.com/salary-cap/?p=857?sc=rss

Also our assigned 7th seems to belong to STL for Greg Salas (undisclosed late rd.)
http://www.gbnreport.com/trades.htm
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap10...gland-patriots-trade-for-greg-salas-from-rams

Still, BB is a genius. With Tampa and Tenn sucking so bad we only lost a few draft spots in each trade to pick up solid contributers in Casillas and Ayers. Brilliant!

The comp pick formula is weird; Sopoaga counted against the Patriots last year even though he was acquired in a trade from the Eagles and played more snaps for them than he did for the Patriots.

It wouldn't surprise me if one of its weird bits let New England sign Blount back (especially this late in the season) and still get a pick.

bvhkibkj

ctpatsfan77 said:

The comp pick formula is weird; Sopoaga counted against the Patriots last year even though he was acquired in a trade from the Eagles and played more snaps for them than he did for the Patriots.

It wouldn't surprise me if one of its weird bits let New England sign Blount back (especially this late in the season) and still get a pick.

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Like you, I'm holding out hope. With that said I like how things stand anyway. Of course come April 30th he'll trade picks into next year and draft a player at a position we find baffling and a LS at some point.

Well, if both Ten an TB both loose next week looks like we'll get the 2nd pick in Rds 4, 6 and 7. TB would get the #1 overall and they and Tenn will flip postions every rd if I'm correct and they both loose. I think that's how it goes because TB's opponents record is worse then the Titans so that would give them tie-breaker and #1 overall.

Gotta give it to Bill for picking on the 2 worst teams in the league. We got those 3 picks plus Wright, Ayers and Casillas for Mankins, a late 5 and 6. That's impressive.